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"The risks of doing too much or doing too little are becoming more balanced and our policy adjusted to reflect that," Powell said. Ahead of a June 13-14 policy meeting "we haven't made any decisions about the extent to which additional policy firming will be appropriate." U.S. policymakers remain on the fence about their upcoming rate decision, and Powell's appearance on Friday was a moment that could have provided clarity. But the central bank will still receive important jobs and inflation data in coming weeks that could sway the debate. If an actual U.S. debt default is the result, the central bank may even be pushed towards emergency steps to ease the burden on the economy.

☆ Watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speak live on monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Friday at the "Perspectives on Monetary Policy" panel at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference the central bank is hosting in Washington, D.C. The remarks come with markets suddenly divided on where the Fed goes from here. Market pricing Friday morning indicated about a 35% probability the Fed might approve another interest rate hike when it meets in June, according to the CME Group. The Fed next week will release minutes from its meeting earlier in May at which it approved its 10th interest rate hike since March 2022. Read more:Dallas Fed President Logan says current data doesn't justify pausing rate hikes yetFed Governor Philip Jefferson named as new vice chair to succeed Lael BrainardFed increases rates a quarter point and signals a potential end to hikes

WASHINGTON, May 19 (Reuters) - Wall Street, small businesses and potential homebuyers may all breath a sigh of relief if the Federal Reserve chooses not to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month, as many traders and analysts expect. If an actual U.S. debt default is the result, the central bank may even be pushed towards emergency steps to ease the burden on the economy. "I would say it was a pause, but a pause could be a 'skip,' or it could be a hold," Bostic said. Data on inflation, jobs, and the banking industry since then have done little to clarify the situation, with nothing seeming to change very fast. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

At the same time, he said the job market is showing an "unprecedented" break from past behavior with a steady drop in job openings without any rise in the unemployment rate. The big unknown is whether that continued job market health is consistent with inflation falling steadily from its current levels above 4% back to the Fed's 2% target. That could allow the job market to cool without as much of a rise in unemployment as might otherwise be the case. Economists and policymakers at this week's conference pointed to other factors adding to the case for a soft landing. But at this point the "uncertainty" about what's at work in the economy could, some officials feel, mask developments that are working in their favor.

☆ Asian shares muted, US debt ceiling talks weigh on risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Asian shares were subdued on Wednesday and the dollar hovered around a five-week peak as investors remained risk averse, with the U.S. debt ceiling talks and a mixed set of economic data weighing on sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.09% in choppy trading, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) down 0.45%. Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy edged closer to a deal to avoid a looming U.S. debt default Tuesday. After an hour of talks, McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives, told reporters the two sides remained far apart on an agreement to lift the debt ceiling. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.01% to 102.61, inching closer to the five-week high of 102.75 it touched on Monday.

☆ Asian shares tentative, US debt ceiling talks weigh on risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Asian shares were subdued on Wednesday and the dollar hovered around a five-week peak as investors remained risk averse, with the U.S. debt ceiling talks and a mixed set of economic data weighing on sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.20% lower, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) was down 0.56%. U.S. stock indexes closed down overnight, hamstrung by dour forecast from Home Depot and April U.S. retail sales data that underscored softer consumer spending. "These actually came in on the lower end of expectations though the news was mixed, with a lower headline but higher core sales figures muddying the message." Recent economic data indicates slowing in the U.S. economy following a string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to fight high inflation.

☆ The Fed could enact a 'substitute' interest rate hike at its June meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve officials could talk tough enough at their June meeting that it would amount to a de facto interest rate hike. "All Fed officials are being careful not to exclude a June hike with more data to come and we would not completely exclude this either," he added. A "substitute" hike could see the rhetoric out of the June meeting reasserting the Fed's stern commitment to fighting inflation and disinclination toward easing anytime soon. But some taming in the inflation data , stronger economic signals and repeated statements from central bankers that cuts are not in their forecast have caused a shift. Fed fund futures contracts are implying a 4.585% funds rate by the end of the year, from the current 5.08%.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh Fed rate policy path
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors assessed what could be next for Federal Reserve interest rates following a slew of comments from central bank officials. Investors looked to comments from Fed officials and economic data as they weighed what could be next for interest rate policy and whether the U.S. economy is likely to contract. That comes after last week's inflation data, which was slightly below expectations, led many investors to hope for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Concerns about elevated rates dragging the U.S. economy into a recession have grown louder in recent weeks.

☆ Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, less than expected as consumers struggle with inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Consumers barely kept up with inflation in April, as retail sales increased but fell short of expectations, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The advanced sales report showed an increase of 0.4%, below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.8%. Excluding auto-related figures, sales increased 0.4%, which was in line with expectations. As the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, the headline increase equaled the 0.4% monthly rise in the consumer price index. Miscellaneous store retailers led gainers with a 2.4% increase, while online sales rose 1.2% and health and personal care retailers saw a 0.9% rise.

☆ Wall Street advances, Treasury yields rise as debt-ceiling debate rolls along
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"It feels like there's some optimism regarding talks on the debt ceiling," said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta. "Part of that may be political gamesmanship, but it's helping the market a little bit today." European stocks ended the session higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. Emerging market stocks rose 0.54%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the ongoing debt ceiling standoff stoked fears of a global economic slowdown.

But Fed officials on Monday said the jury is very much out. Bostic said businesses in his southeastern U.S. Fed district "are telling me we think you're close to overdoing it ... Investors have consistently bet that the central bank, due to some combination of recession or a faster-than-expected drop in inflation, will be cutting rates by later this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." In addition, he says the full impact of Fed rate hikes has yet to be felt.

☆ Tech lifts Nasdaq, Treasury yields gain as debt ceiling debate plods on
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. "It feels like there's some optimism regarding talks on the debt ceiling," said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta. European stocks ended the session higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. Emerging market stocks rose 0.53%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the debt ceiling standoff wore on, and investors clung to hopes of interest rate cuts by year-end, despite comments from Fed officials.

☆ Fed officials expect US interest rates to stay high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

May 15 - U.S. central bankers on Monday signaled they see interest rates staying high and, if anything, going higher, given sticky inflation - a stark contrast with the market's view that the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates well before 2023 is over. Inflation has eased some and should cool further, he said, but the process will not be quick enough to merit rate cuts anytime soon. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." "We still are well in excess of our 2% inflation target, and we need to finish the job." And he said he believes the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes so far have yet to be felt.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation is "much much too high" despite the rate hikes. Investors now await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for any clues on potential rate cuts this year. Shares of Magellan jumped 13.7%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.14-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.92-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded six new 52-week highs and seven new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 44 new highs and 110 new lows.

☆ Wall Street wavers, Treasury yields gain as debt ceiling debate plods on
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. European stocks pared initial gains and were last nominally higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.12% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.14%. Emerging market stocks rose 0.39%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the debt ceiling standoff wore on.

"And as Washington leaks out increments with rolling disclosure about how the discussions are proceeding ... that probably is bolstering confidence in investors." ET, Dow e-minis were up 51 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.5 points, or 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20.75 points, or 0.15%. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year as he does not see inflation going down as fast as market participants believe. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook are among other Fed officials set to speak later in the day. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Bostic says wants to 'wait and see' on rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"The appropriate policy is really just to wait and see how much the economy slows from the policy actions that we've had," Bostic told CNBC, noting that for months he has believed the Fed would need to get short-term interest rates to the 5%-5.25% range where they are currently. "I think in the next several months the math is going to work in our favor, and the economy is going to work in our favor," Bostic told CNBC. Still, he said, "if there is going to be a bias to action, for me there would be a bias to increase a little further, as opposed to cut," Bostic said. The unemployment rate, at 3.4%, is the lowest it has been in more than 50 years. Even with some increase to that as inflation comes down, Bostic said, the economy would still be very strong.

☆ Morning Bid: Debt impasse dominates in big day for politics
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Politics has the spotlight at the start of a new week, falling chiefly - still - on the U.S. debt ceiling standoff. Talks between President Joe Biden and lawmakers look likely to resume on Tuesday, after getting postponed on Friday. Despite that setback, and deep partisan rifts, both Biden and analysts say there are signs of progress. Biden is confident enough that he's still planning on boarding a Wednesday flight to Hiroshima for the G7 summit. However, the liberal Move Forward party and the populist Pheu Thai Party will not only need to broker a deal with each other, but also somehow win the backing of the junta-appointed senate to form a government.

☆ Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic: We won't be thinking about rate cuts 'until well into 2024'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic: We won't be thinking about rate cuts 'until well into 2024'CNBC’s Steve Liesman sits down with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on 'Squawk Box' to discuss his expectations for inflation in the U.S., the possibility of further rate hikes, and more.

☆ Fed's Bostic casts doubt on rate cuts this year even if there's a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Monday that he doesn't foresee rate cuts at least through 2023, even if there's a recession. "If there's going to be some cost to that, we've got to be willing to do that." "If there's going to be a bias to action, for me would be a bias to increase a little further as opposed to cut." On inflation, Bostic said he remains optimistic, while Goolsbee said, "Inflation is improving, but it's not improving that rapidly." "There's still a lot of confidence that our policies are going to be able to get inflation back down to our 2% target," Bostic said.

☆ Cramer says Club portfolio is positioned to buy market dips. Here's where investors can look
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Matthew J. Belvedere | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ Stock futures are little changed as traders await Tuesday debt ceiling negotiations: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on April 10, 2023 in New York City. Futures tied to the S&P 500 slipped 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched lower by 0.08%. Investors are anxiously awaiting progress on a deal to raise the debt ceiling before June 1, which is the earliest date the Treasury Department has said the U.S. could default on its debt obligations. Biden has so far maintained that raising the debt ceiling is non-negotiable. McCarthy, however, has pushed for talks to broker a deal to raise the debt ceiling be tied to spending cuts.

☆ Morning Bid: Debt ceiling jitters, Turkey vote, Soros ditches Tesla
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

President Joe Biden is meeting Congressional leaders on Tuesday to try to hash out a compromise to raise the debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default. A regulatory filing on Friday from the family office of George Soros showed the 92-year old billionaire investor has sold his entire stake in Tesla. Soros bought shares in the electric vehicle maker, run by Elon Musk, in 2022, as well as convertible bonds in 2018. Soros wasn't alone in pulling out of some of the pandemic-era darlings in the first three months of the year. Friday's regulatory filing showed he loaded up on other big tech stocks, including Netflix, Uber, chipmaker Qualcomm and cloud-based data company Snowflake - which fellow 92-year old investor Warren Buffett bought into back in 2020.

☆ Fed says new refinements of trading process are coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Other Fed officials have also faced heat for their trading activities, including Powell and former Vice-Chairman Richard Clarida. Meanwhile, last year Atlanta Fed leader Raphael Bostic acknowledged some of his investment activity inadvertently happened at forbidden periods. The IG is still looking into the trading of regional Fed officials. The Fed formalized new rules that sharply restricted what Fed officials and senior staff can trade and when they can do it, and required pre-approval for trades as well in February of last year. But according to the report, some at the central bank viewed the process as burdensome and possibly even unnecessary.

Signature Bank's failure took only marginally longer. "The number 36 has just been, you know, branded in my brain," Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters earlier this month. "I think that any time you have a bank failure like this, bank management clearly failed, supervisors failed and our regulatory system failed," Barr told U.S. lawmakers in a hearing in March. "It's how do we allow a bank whose failure threatened the financial system to persist without being subject to more aggressive intervention?" "One thing for certain ... this was a very significant supervisory failure," Tarullo said at the Peterson Institute for International Economics event on Wednesday.

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