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Traders currently see a 50% chance of no rate hike at that meeting, with rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year. Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N) tumbled more than 60% as news of fresh financing failed to reassure investors, and so did Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) and PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O). U.S. bank regulators sought to reassure nervous customers on Monday who lined up outside SVB's Santa Clara, California, headquarters, offering coffee and donuts. Regulators also moved swiftly to close New York's Signature Bank SBNY.O, which had come under pressure in recent days. In China, where SVB was the main go-to foreign bank for the majority of start-ups, entrepreneurs and venture funds were also scrambling for alternative funding.

☆ Analysis: Door slams on Japan bank rally as focus turns to bond holdings in wake of SVB
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Losses in Silicon Valley Bank's bond portfolio have highlighted similar risks for Japanese lenders' gigantic foreign bond holdings, which are carrying over 4 trillion yen ($30 billion) in unrealised losses. Three days of selling has the Tokyo Stock Exchange banks index (.IBNKS.T) down 16% - its sharpest drop since the days after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami struck Japan. Reuters GraphicsBONDS GETTING HITMost of the time, bond losses aren't a problem for banks, which typically hold their investments to maturity. An annual Bank of Japan report published on Tuesday said Japanese financial institutions have sufficient capital buffers. "And maybe some concerns Japanese banks have exposures, and some profit taking," he said.

SVB's meltdown sparked a partisan battle in Washington on Monday, with Democrats arguing that a Trump-era change to bank oversight rules undermined the stability of regional banks. In the money markets, indicators of credit risk in the U.S. and euro zone banking systems edged up. [1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023. On Monday morning, U.S. bank regulators sought to reassure nervous customers who lined up outside SVB's Santa Clara, California, headquarters, offering coffee and donuts. A furious race to reprice interest rate expectations also sent waves through markets as investors bet the Fed will be reluctant to hike next week.

Biden said his administration's actions over the weekend meant "Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe", while also promising stiffer regulation after the biggest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Shares in U.S. banking giants JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) nevertheless weakened. But your second thought is, how big was that crisis, how big were the risks that this step had to be taken?" U.S. regulators stepped in on Sunday after the collapse of SVB, which had seen a run after a big bond portfolio hit. [1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023.

Germany's Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) fell as much as 12.7%, while Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) hit a new record low after falling 15%. Biden said his administration's rapid actions at the weekend should reassure Americans that the U.S. banking system is safe, and promised stiffer bank regulation after the country's biggest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. "Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe. But big U.S. banks including JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) also weakened. In the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone.

[1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023. Germany's Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) fell as much as 12.7%, while Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) hit a new record low after falling more than 15%. Dowding said he did not think that a lot of the issues affecting U.S. banks would be present in European lenders. It said Silicon Valley Bank UK had loans of around 5.5 billion pounds and deposits of around 6.7 billion pounds as of March 10. U.S. banks lost more than $100 billion in stock market value late last week following SVB's failure, while European banks have now lost a similar amount, a Reuters calculation showed.

Earlier in the day, Japan's Topix bank index (.IBNKS.T) lost 4%, while Singapore's largest banks also lost ground, down over 1%. The U.S. government stepped in on Sunday with a series of emergency measures to shore up confidence in the banking system following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (SIVB.O), which marked the biggest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Smaller banks remained under pressure with U.S. private bank First Republic Bank (FRC.N) plunging around 50% in pre market, and PacWest (PACW.O) down around 26%. U.S. banks lost over $100 billion in stock market value late last week following the collapse, while European banks lost around another $50 billion in value, according to a Reuters calculation. U.S. state regulators on Sunday also closed New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O), which became the next casualty of the banking turmoil after SVB.

☆ Asian bank stocks tumble as US systemic concerns prevail
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In Hong Kong, shares of HSBC Holdings opened roughly 1.7% lower at a two-month trough while Standard Chartered Bank shares fell nearly 1% to a one-month low. U.S. banks lost over $100 billion in stock market value late last week following the collapse, while European banks lost around another $50 billion in value, according to a Reuters calculation. U.S. state regulators on Sunday also closed New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O), which became the next casualty of the banking turmoil after SVB. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Topix (.TOPX) was last 2% lower, dragged heavily by financial stocks. Shares of Singapore's largest bank DBS (DBSM.SI) slid to their lowest since late October last year, at S$32.71 ($24.32), while OCBC's shares (OCBC.SI) lost close to 1.5%.

☆ VIEW US intervenes to shore up SVB deposits, stem financial fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

March 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. government announced actions to shore up deposits and stem any broader financial fallout from the sudden collapse of tech startup-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) (SVB), sending U.S. stock futures higher. "The market turbulence sparked by SVB has upended rising market expectations on the Fed rate path. The fact that SVB and Signature Bank depositors will be made whole is critical in maintaining trust in the financial system and should help stem contagion fears this week. But it also means that 50 basis points (a possible Fed interest rate hike) is off the table." Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike."

☆ Instant view: US intervenes to shore up SVB deposits, limit financial fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

March 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. government announced actions to shore up deposits and stem any broader financial fallout from the sudden collapse of tech startup-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) (SVB), sending U.S. stock futures higher. ALVIN TAN, HEAD OF ASIA FX STRATEGY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"Markets remain unsettled from the SVB failure. "The market turbulence sparked by SVB has upended rising market expectations on the Fed rate path. ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, TROY, MICHIGAN:"It was imperative that regulators stepped in and decisively acted before markets around the world opened for the week. GREG MCBRIDE, CHIEF FINANCIAL ANALYST, BANKRATE:"While the Fed has talked about a lot in the past year, until today it has been in the context of monetary policy.

The yen was last down about 0.15% at 136.36 after a knee-jerk plunge of as much as 0.62% after the BOJ kept policy unchanged in Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's final policy meeting before retirement. Despite some volatility against the yen, the U.S. dollar was mostly flat on Friday. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was little changed at 105.28 but remained on track for a weekly gain of 0.73%. The focus now turns to the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report later on Friday, the next major data point that could offer clues on the Fed's next steps for monetary policy. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 205,000 jobs in February after surging by 517,000 in January.

☆ Dollar towers on lingering effects of Powell's testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In the second day of his testimony to Congress on Wednesday, Powell reaffirmed his hawkish message, though struck a cautious note that debate on the scale and path of future rate hikes was still underway and would be data-dependent. As a result, the U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, slipped 0.02% to 105.61. Conversely, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its key overnight interest rate on hold at 4.50%, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its monetary tightening campaign. The Canadian dollar stood at 1.3808 per U.S. dollar on Thursday, after having weakened to a more than four-month low in the previous session following the decision. Elsewhere, the kiwi rose 0.03% to $0.6107, having slumped to a near four-month low in the previous session.

SINGAPORE/LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held steady on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted it might nearly be done with monetary tightening. Elsewhere, the euro, sterling and yen were all broadly steady with the common currency at $1.0671 , the pound at $1.20245 , and one dollar worth 135.7 yen . That meant U.S. dollar index , which measures the unit against six major rivals, was also flat at 104.3, having slipped 0.26% a day earlier. "If (he) remains cautious ... that could trigger the dollar index to fall further below the 105.00-level ahead of the release of the NFP report on Friday." Investors are also awaiting the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday, when the central bank is set to stick to its ultra-loose monetary path.

☆ Dollar treads water ahead of Powell testimony; Aussie slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was tentative on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that it might nearly be done with monetary tightening. Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index , which measures it against six major rivals, was flat at 104.24, having slipped 0.26% overnight. "We suspect he will sound noncommittal for now and take his cues from the looming upcoming key data," said Cummins, who expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said Powell's testimony will be one of the last instances of Fed officials speaking before the black-out period commences ahead of the FOMC meeting.

☆ Dollar advances, Aussie slides as Australia economy slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Australia's economy grew at the weakest pace in a year last quarter while the country's monthly consumer prices rose less than expected in January, separate data showed on Wednesday. The Aussie slumped in the aftermath of the data to a two-month trough, and was last 0.47% lower at $0.6697. "We see the Fed going to 5.5%, with a growing risk of 6%," said Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank. Elsewhere, the dollar rose 0.12% against the Japanese yen to 136.38, after having spiked close to 5% against the yen in February, its largest monthly gain since last June. The kiwi fell 0.28% to $0.6167, while the Chinese offshore yuan slipped marginally to 6.9603 per dollar.

The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers, was flat at 104.64, but was still set for a February gain of 2.6%, its first monthly increase since September. The next move in the dollar is really a function of how the February data starts to play out in March," Atrill said. U.S. Treasury yields have also moved higher with the inflation sensitive two-year yield back at three-and- a-half-month highs. [US/}The dollar on Tuesday gained particularly against the Japanese yen , climbing 0.44% to 136.84, its highest in over two months. ,Elsewhere, sterling built on its gains from the previous session against the dollar, rising 0.2% to $1.2082.

☆ Sterling holds gains after rising on UK trade deal with EU
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The pound held steady on Tuesday, retaining gains overnight after Britain struck a new trade deal with the European Union, which brightened the outlook for the post-Brexit UK economy and signalled improved relations between London and the bloc. The dollar was mostly flat in early trade but was on track to end higher for the month, ending a four-month losing streak. The euro similarly got a lift and was last 0.05% higher at $1.0614, after rising 0.6% on Monday. The British parliament will now vote on the deal, with the opposition Labour Party saying it will vote in favour. "The real thing is, is this a springboard for a stronger, much improved removal of trade frictions more generally, between the UK and the EU?"

Fund managers say they are fielding more queries from clients about the odds of an invasion of Taiwan by China. Russia's invasion of Ukraine early last year has also made investors more wary of war risk, analysts said. Goldman Sachs' Cross-Strait Risk Index, which gauges the intensity of geopolitical risk between Taiwan and mainland China, hit a record high last August after then-U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan. Jordan Stuart, client portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, says he cut China exposure last year while holding onto some small stocks that can "fly under the radar". The Taiwan Strait is a major route for ships transporting goods from East Asia to the United States and Europe.

[1/3] A man wearing a protective mask is seen inside the Shanghai Stock Exchange building, as the country is hit by a new coronavirus outbreak, at the Pudong financial district in Shanghai, China, February 28, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoNEW YORK/SINGAPORE, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Many large money managers are steering clear of Chinese assets, missing out on the nation's post-COVID stock market rally in the latest example of strategic concerns trumping juicy returns. "For our investors who might have that concern, there are plenty of other opportunities away from China." The concern flagged by some is whether this is part of a structural downgrade for Chinese assets, said Will Malcolm, a Singapore-based portfolio manager at Aviva Investors. That could attract cash in a hurry, but the behaviour of large investors so far suggests that a large sentiment shift will be needed.

☆ Take Five: Strap in for no landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/ FED VS STOCKSReports on U.S. durable goods orders, home prices as well as manufacturing and consumer confidence threaten to cement expectations of more Fed rate hikes and to deal a knockout punch to the early-year stocks rally. Evidence of a stronger-than-expected economy has forced investors to recalibrate projections for Fed hawkishness, lifting bond yields and weighing on stock gains. Tuesday's consumer confidence data may be of particular interest, offering a glimpse into households' views on economic prospects and inflation expectations. The idea of "no landing," which upends a host of popular trades based on a the scenario of the global economy entering recession is gaining traction thanks to surprisingly upbeat data. A soft landing could still happen.

The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major peers was at 104.48, steady on the day. "The easy part of the short USD trade is over," said Galvin Chia, emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets. "Until major releases can change the view, the market bias looks like good news is bad news - a resilient U.S. economy is risk-negative." Something that is bad news for risk sentiment, in this case, the likelihood of higher interest rates, would typically boost safe-haven curencies like the dollar. Reporting by Rae Wee and Alun John; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar retreats as investors come to terms with higher-for-longer U.S. rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nearly all Fed policymakers favoured a scale down in the pace of interest rate hikes at the U.S. central bank's last policy meeting, minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 FOMC meeting showed on Wednesday. However, they also indicated curbing unacceptably high inflation would be the "key factor" in how much further rates need to rise. "Many central banks around the world ... are trying to put an emphasis in their determination to combat inflation expectations," said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC. The kiwi continued to draw some support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish rate rise on Wednesday, after the central bank signalled further tightening ahead to tame high inflation. "The easy part of the short USD trade is over," said Galvin Chia, emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets.

☆ Dollar firms as investors brace for higher-for-longer rates scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

However, they also indicated curbing unacceptably high inflation would be the "key factor" in how much further rates need to rise. The dollar paused its ascent on Thursday after gaining broadly on the back of the release. "The meeting minutes were pretty much within expectations ... the markets are now pricing for higher-for-longer rates," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets. "The resilience (of the U.S. economy) prompts the Fed to keep raising interest rates ... pushing up the U.S. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index stood at 104.50, and was attempting to break a more than one-month peak of 104.67 hit last week.

LONDON/SINGAPORE, Feb 22 - The dollar rose slightly on Wednesday, continuing to trade near six-week highs on the back of strong economic data. Survey data released on Tuesday showed U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February to reach its highest in eight months. On Wednesday, the euro was down 0.15% at $1.063, just above Friday's six-week low of $1.061. EuroThe dollar index was up 0.13% at 104.28, not far off the six-week high of 104.67 hit at the end of last week. Themos Fiotakis, head of FX strategy at Barclays, said he still expcts the dollar to fall by the end of the year.

☆ Dollar, sterling underpinned by upbeat PMI surveys; kiwi jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar rose against most major currencies after the upbeat data save for sterling , which jumped 0.6% on Tuesday. The euro , however, failed to benefit from the data as it slid 0.36% in the previous session. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar rose to a two-month high of 135.23 in the previous session, and slipped marginally to 134.91 in early Asia trade on Wednesday. The two-year yields jumped to an over three-month high of 4.738% in the previous session, and last stood at 4.6933%. The kiwi rose 0.39% to $0.6238, after earlier jumping roughly 0.5% to an intra-day high of $0.6248 immediately after the RBNZ's cash rate decision.

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