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☆ Dollar to rebound, accumulate safe-haven strength in 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The dollar will rebound against most currencies over the coming months, with the growing threat of recession in the U.S. and elsewhere keeping it firm in 2023 through safe-haven flows, according to market strategists polled by Reuters. Nearly two-thirds or 33 of 51 strategists who answered an additional question said the greater dollar risk over the coming month was that it would rebound rather than falling further. "We foresee volatility levels remaining high in the coming months and expect it is too early for USD bulls to fully capitulate." Most major central banks, including the Fed, are expected to end their tightening campaigns in early 2023. An overwhelming 80% majority, or 42 of 51 respondents, said there was not much scope for dollar upside based on monetary policy.

☆ Deutsche bank, Rabobank hit with EU antitrust charge over bond cartel
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Foo Yun Chee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] People are silhouetted next to the Deutsche Bank's logo prior to the bank's annual meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, May 24, 2018. REUTERS/Kai PfaffenbachBRUSSELS, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and Rabobank (RABO.UL) were charged by EU antitrust regulators on Tuesday of taking part in a government bond cartel, the latest move against a sector which has racked up millions of euros in fines for various competition violations. Deutsche Bank said it does not expect any sanction, suggesting that it may have alerted the cartel to the authorities. "Deutsche Bank has proactively cooperated with the European Commission in this matter and as a result has been granted conditional immunity. In accordance with the European Commission’s guidelines, Deutsche Bank does not expect a financial penalty," the German lender said.

☆ Dollar gains broadly as upbeat U.S. data muddles Fed rate hike views
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( John Mccrank | Seher Dareen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The survey followed on the heels of stronger-than-expected job and wage growth data for November released last Friday. "The ISM services PMI data highlighted a U.S. economy that's still showing some strength, despite tighter financial conditions," said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. "While that's good news for the growth outlook, it's not so great for the Fed trying to dampen demand and ease inflation." Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the U.S. central bank could scale back the pace of its rate increases "as soon as December." "I think this issue about 'peak inflation, peak rates, peak dollar' - I think - is slowly turning into a 'persistence of inflation, a persistence of higher-for-longer interest rates," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

☆ Euro zone yields drop as Fed chair signals smaller hikes ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Prior to Powell's speech, markets had been pricing in a peak in interest rates at 5.05%, according to data from Refinitiv. Jefferies interest rate strategist Mohit Kumar said Powell's appearance on Wednesday was dovish compared to his last post-decision press conference. "The dovish element was his view that the terminal rates would be 'somewhat' higher than the September projections, while the market has been viewing terminal rates as substantially higher than the September dot plot of 4.4%," Kumar added. Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the euro area, dropped 11 basis points (bps) to 1.839%. Italy's 10-year yield was down 15 bps to 3.74%, pushing the closely watched spread between Italian and German 10-year yields tighter by around 8 bps to 189 bps.

☆ Wall St futures slip on China COVID woes; Apple falls
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

As China's strict policy aimed at stamping out COVID-19 with lockdowns and quarantines has become a lightning rod for frustrations, protests erupted over the weekend as a show of solidarity with rare displays of defiance in China. ET, Dow e-minis were down 184 points, or 0.54%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 31.75 points, or 0.79%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 105.25 points, or 0.89%. However, street protests against zero-COVID policy in China underline a harsher reality that is undermining market sentiment, at least for now," said Rabobank analysts in a note. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed lower, weighed down by Apple in a subdued holiday-shortened trading session for Wall Street, as investors watched Black Friday sales and COVID-19 cases in China. Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Chicken prices are finally starting to fall
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Danielle Wiener-Bronner | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN Business —Over the past year, as some meat prices have fallen, chicken prices have remained stubbornly high. In the year through October, not adjusting for seasonal swings, chicken prices had jumped 14.5%, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chicken prices are finally falling. Why chicken prices were highBut the roosters don’t bear all the blame. Still, a decline in wholesale prices eventually leads to a decline in retail prices, which is starting to happen.

☆ Fed to lift rates by 50 basis points, but peak policy rate may be higher
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. consumer price inflation unexpectedly fell below 8% last month, bolstering already well-established market expectations the Fed would go for smaller rate hikes going forward after four consecutive 75-basis-point increases. Peak rate forecasts ranged between 4.25%-4.50% and 5.75%-6.00%. But 16 of 28 respondents to an additional question said the bigger risk was that rates would peak higher and later than they expect now, with another four saying higher and earlier. "While markets are focused on peak inflation, underlying inflation trends are persistent. This could force the Fed to keep raising the federal funds rate well into next year and beyond levels currently anticipated," said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

☆ Coffee prices are crashing. What it means for your cup of joe
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Danielle Wiener-Bronner | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN Business —Coffee futures are crashing. “When the dollar goes up, everything measured in dollars, like international coffee prices, tend to go down,” Mera said. In the year through October, not adjusted for seasonal swings, coffee prices jumped 14.8% in the grocery store, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the improved conditions won’t necessarily mean a big decline in coffee prices for consumers, Mera noted. That’s because while coffee prices are falling, other costs, like labor and distribution, are still high for producers.

Before the U.S. data the euro, sterling and the Swedish crown had already risen sharply against the U.S. dollar as traders assessed a slew of economic data, including UK and euro zone job figures plus German economic sentiment. In Europe traders were also eying encouraging data such as German economic sentiment ZEW index, which rose in November. Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank in London also pointed to other headlines supporting risk currencies against the dollar. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six counterparts including sterling and euro, was last down 0.46% at 106.162 after earlier touching 105.34, its lowest point since August. The Swedish crown rose sharply against the U.S. dollar after data showed inflation in Sweden rose less than expected in October.

☆ Dollar set for biggest two-day fall since 2009 as rate outlook shifts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Data on Thursday showed consumer inflation rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, its slowest rate since January and below forecasts for 8%. The dollar staged its biggest drop since late 2015 on Thursday as Treasury yields plunged, while other currencies - the yen and the pound in particular - jumped. The dollar index was down nearly 1.1%, having lost over 3% in the last two days - its biggest two-day decline since March 2009. The offshore yuan rallied by as much as 1.3% to hit its highest in over a month against the dollar, to 7.0592.

☆ Dollar heads for biggest two-day fall since 2009 as rate outlook shifts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Chinese Yuan and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken February 10, 2020. Data on Thursday showed consumer inflation rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, its slowest rate since January and below forecasts for 8%. The dollar staged its biggest drop since late 2015 on Thursday as Treasury yields plunged, while other currencies - the yen and the pound in particular - jumped. The dollar index was down nearly 1%, having lost over 3% in the last two days - its biggest two-day decline since March 2009. "It can be a little dangerous in that the 'bad news' is still out there and could come back to burn us, particularly with respect to the Fed," Rabobank currency strategist Jane Foley said.

☆ Dollar flags after biggest daily fall since 2015
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Chinese Yuan and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken February 10, 2020. The dollar staged its biggest drop since late 2015 as Treasury yields plunged, while other currencies - the yen and the pound in particular - jumped. The dollar index was down nearly 0.5%, while risk assets including stocks, emerging-market currencies and commodities rallied. The offshore yuan rallied by as much as 1.3% to hit its highest in over a month against the dollar, to 7.0592. Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $17,344, after plunging below $16,000 for the first time since late 2020 this week.

☆ Here’s what’s getting more expensive at the grocery store
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Danielle Wiener-Bronner | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN Business —Food is still getting more expensive, but at a slower pace than earlier this year. The increases are less than the record highs clocked just a few months ago, but food prices are still outpacing the overall rate of inflation, which hit 7.7% for the year. Volatility in the grain market caused by the war in Ukraine as well as high energy prices, which impact fertilizer and transportation costs, are also raising food prices. What’s getting more expensive, and what’s getting cheaperIn the year through October, eggs got a whopping 43% more expensive. In October, some prices jumped compared to the previous month.

☆ Euro, sterling jump, dollar tumbles as market turns to risk assets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. dollar and British pound notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Euro and sterling rose against the safe-haven U.S. dollar on Monday, supported by a risk-on sentiment across markets with European stocks rising on persistent hopes China will ease COVID restrictions. Another risk-sensitive currency, sterling , reversed earlier losses to trade up 0.6% to $1.1442, while the euro jumped to its highest since Oct. 27. Four Fed policymakers on Friday also indicated they would still consider a smaller interest rate hike at their next policy meeting. Reporting by Joice Alves in London; Editing by Ed Osmond and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ VIEW Bank of England lifts UK rates to 3% in historic hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Toby MelvilleLONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Bank of England raised UK interest rates to 3% on Thursday in its largest rate hike since 1989 and warned of a "very challenging outlook" for the economy. Money markets showed traders now expect UK rates to peak at 4.6% by next September, compared to expectations of 4.8% just two days ago. UK bank stocks (.FTNMX301010) fell 0.8%BONDS: Yields on the two-year gilt were last up 1 basis points at 3.041%, compared with 3.064% before the BoE announced its decision. Rates markets are pricing another 50bps hike at each of the December and February meetings, although still reflect a lower terminal rate than just a week ago. ANDREW ALDRIDGE, PARTNER AT DEEPBRIDGE CAPITAL, LONDON"Quelling rampant inflation and kickstarting a slowing economy left the Bank facing a difficult balancing act, with today's interest rate hike to 3% hardly surprising in this context.

☆ POLL Dollar's retreat temporary, likely to reclaim recent highs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar's retreat in foreign exchange markets is temporary, according to a Reuters poll of currency strategists, who said the greenback still had enough strength left to reclaim or surpass its recent highs and resume its relentless rise. The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its fourth jumbo increase in a row. However, for the December meeting interest rate futures showed a split on the odds of a 75 or 50 basis point increase. Those six and 12-month median forecasts were a slight upgrade from the October poll and the first since April. It was expected to trade around 146.0, 141.7 and 135.0 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.

☆ Dollar's retreat temporary, likely to reclaim recent highs - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Moscow suspended its participation in the Black Sea deal on Saturday, in response to what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Russian-annexed Crimea. That relative calm is likely to end when Chicago and Paris wheat, the world's two most-active wheat futures contracts, start their trading week on Monday. Purchasing of grain for Black Sea ports in Ukraine has stopped following Russia's decision, a Ukrainian broker said. Ukraine's infrastructure ministry said on Sunday 218 vessels were "effectively blocked" by Russia's decision to suspend its participation in the grain export deal. Market participants are watching to see if the corridor deal can be salvaged, as the U.N. pursues negotiating efforts.

Summary Grain purchases for Ukraine sea ports stop, broker saysDrought and torrential rain disrupt southern hemisphere suppliesExports increasing from RussiaPARIS, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Wheat futures are expected to leap on Monday as Russia's withdrawal from a Black Sea corridor agreement puts Ukrainian exports at risk, analysts said. Moscow suspended its participation in the Black Sea deal on Saturday, in response to what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Russian-annexed Crimea. Purchasing of grain for Black Sea ports in Ukraine has stopped following Russia's decision, a Ukrainian broker said. "There are increasing exports from Russia so in the short term availability might still be there from the Black Sea," he said. Market participants will also be watching to see if the corridor deal can be salvaged, as the U.N. pursues negotiating efforts.

"This new generation of high ambition targets can enable a cleaner greener food and agriculture sector," said Eric Usher, Head of the U.N. Environment Programme Finance Initiative, which helped convene the group and approved the targets as ambitious. Ahead of the COP27 global climate talks in Egypt in November, investors are increasingly focusing on links between a healthy food system and efforts to fight global warming and preserve biodiversity. "The wider finance sector must use COP27 to supersize its ambition and grow a more sustainable food and agriculture sector," Usher said. "Identifying what a state-of-the-art, credible target to finance sustainable food and agriculture looks like is a vital part of addressing the urgent climate and food crises," said Wiebe Draijer, co-chair of the Good Food Finance Network and former CEO from Rabobank.

☆ Global economy approaching a recession, central banks unchained: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The global economy is approaching a recession as economists polled by Reuters once again cut growth forecasts for key economies while central banks keep raising interest rates to bring down persistently-high inflation. After being late to call the inflation problem, global central banks have spent most of this year frontloading rate hikes to catch up. Most economists and central banks are of the view there will be little work left to do next year. Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank, said "risk of a global recession" is what everyone's talking about and has become mainstream in forecasts. Reuters Poll - Terminal rate outlookOf the 22 central banks polled this time, only six were expected to hit their inflation targets by the end of next year.

☆ Sovereign bond market turmoil to spill well into next year: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU (Reuters) - Turmoil in global sovereign bond markets is set to persist for another six months to a year as central banks carry on raising interest rates to bring down inflation, according to a Reuters poll of market strategists. Since the Fed first moved, bond markets have been subjected to high levels of volatility and deep sell-offs, jolting many bond investors out of their complacency. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, which began rising late last year, hit its highest level since March 2020 last week. But those median forecasts were higher than in September’s poll, suggesting yields are still facing upside risks. The poll expected bund yields to drop slightly from their current levels to 2.10% by end-2022 and then rise slightly to stay around 2.20% in the following six months.

☆ European shares at near two-week high amid UK fiscal plan optimism
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Amruta Khandekar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The region-wide STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) was up 0.9% by 0826 GMT, hitting a near two-week high, as investors snapped up beaten-down tech (.SX8P) and bank (.SX7P) stocks. Shares of chipmakers, including ASML Holdings (ASML.AS) and BE Semiconductor (BESI.AS), rose between 0.9% and 4% amid a risk-on sentiment in markets. "If you make that U-turn too extreme and basically embark on a trajectory of significant fiscal tightening, that could also do more more harm. Investors also took comfort from a recent pullback in natural gas prices in Europe, which is battling an energy crisis amid growing risks of a recession. Rio Tinto (RIO.L) slipped 0.7% after it projected annual iron ore shipments at the lower end of its forecast amid weak global demand.

As Truss spoke on Friday gains made in anticipation of the corporation tax U-turn faded. Ten-year gilt yields were 40 bps above session lows hit earlier on Friday, also pushed up by moves in bond yields globally. UNDERWHELMEDBritain's mini-budget three weeks ago triggered some of the biggest ever jumps in British bond yields, exposed vulnerabilities in the pensions sector -- undermining the country's financial stability. "How it impacts liquidity on the gilt market going forward is something we are monitoring closely." Rabobank's McGuire said pressure on UK assets could lead the BoE to re-intervene in the bond market or delay its quantitative tightening, bond-selling plans.

☆ UK pensions: There's no quick fix for the market mess
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Almost 20 days after Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled his much-criticized plan to jumpstart the economy, sparking an investor revolt, the UK bond market and the British pound remain under huge stress — despite three emergency interventions by the central bank. The country’s central bank is in a difficult position. It’s trying to restore the UK government’s lost credibility in markets, though its toolkit isn’t designed for this kind of effort. “Investment consultants are working feverishly.”Ongoing volatility in the bond market is further complicating those efforts, as rising yields once again put hedging strategies at risk. Yet as bond yields keep rallying, not everyone is convinced that approach makes sense.

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