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Fed officials aren’t easing Wall Street’s nerves
  + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Optimism spurred by the latest inflation data pushed all three major stock indexes to new record highs. But now Wall Street, eager for rate cuts, is on edge again. But some financial leaders remain doubtful that the Fed is feeling confident enough to cut rates soon. “I think we’re set up for stickier inflation.”Some Fed officials say another rate hike isn’t likelyFed officials have mostly sounded a little more optimistic about inflation recently, after the Consumer Price Index for April finally provided some welcome news. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Bloomberg on Monday that she also thinks interest rates are high enough to deal with inflation.
Persons: they’re, Dow, Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, “ I’m, , , Philip Jefferson, Mary Daly, Axios, Jerome Powell, Klaas Knot, Loretta Mester, Chris Larkin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, CNBC, , Peterson Institute for International Economics, Boston College, Mortgage, Association, ” San Francisco Fed, European Central Bank Governing, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Locations: ” San
Dollar calm as traders await clues on U.S. rate path
  + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
In this photo illustration, a person seen holding a 100 US dollar bill in his hand. The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as investors awaited further clues to help chart the U.S. interest rate path in the wake of cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials, even as inflation shows signs of cooling. The Japanese yen was flat at 155.74 per dollar, with traders on alert for any signs of government intervention. That has prompted traders to trim the amount of easing expected this year to about 46 bps, with only a rate cut in November fully priced in. In other currencies, sterling touched a two-month high of $1.2711 ahead of the crucial UK inflation report due on Wednesday.
Persons: Brian Jacobsen, Powell, Jackson, Flash PMIs, Paul Mackel, BoE, Charu Chanana Organizations: Federal Reserve, Annex Wealth Management, ANZ, European Central Bank, Bank of England, HSBC, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Saxo Locations: Tokyo, Germany, U.S, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The S&P 500 could fall around 500 points in a swift correction, Stifel strategists warned. The investment firm said falling inflation was a "pipe dream," and Fed rate cuts could be delayed. Markets see just one or two rate cuts by the end of the year, per the CME FedWatch tool. "We have been wary of a broad S&P 500 correction in the middle quarters of 2024. Markets have already dialed back their outlook for Fed rate cuts this year, which drove a sell-of in stocks in April.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Fed, PCE, Traders
Typically, price increases are a slow-moving process, so it is rare to see core inflation accelerate this much this quickly. The Survey of Professional Forecasters has found longer-run expectations for inflation have leveled out at 2% — the Fed's target. These one-offs have had an outsize impact on the overall inflation picture. Ahead of 2024, the contribution from acyclical components to core inflation was essentially zero. The strong growth in private demand suggests that second-quarter GDP could be even more robust.
Persons: I've Organizations: America, Federal Reserve, PCE, Atlanta Fed Locations: Real
Stifel Financial is predicting a rough road ahead for the S & P 500 . The investment bank forecasts the benchmark stock index will tumble about 500 points to 4,750 in the second or third quarter — a correction of roughly 10%. "As a result, the sustained 2% Core PCE inflation the Fed seeks is a pipe dream." Stifel's inflation model shows a jump in core personal consumption expenditures to just over 3% in the second half of this year. The S & P 500 is up about 9.5% year to date.
Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister Organizations: PCE
All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher for the week, led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average . The Nasdaq Composite added 1.14% while the S & P 500 advanced 1.85% in a relatively quiet week of economic updates. Within the portfolio, Disney and Wynn Resorts released quarterly numbers; we took issue with the stock reaction to both reports. It also raises the stakes around major economic releases, such as next week's consumer inflation report. In the week ahead, earnings season continues — headlined by Walmart on Thursday — and inflation data will dominate the economic calendar.
Persons: We've, Jim Cramer, Dow Jones, we'll, We'll, Stanley Black, Decker, Jack, JACK, Arcutis, Spero, JD.com, Armour, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Carlo Allegri Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Disney, Wynn Resorts, Procter, Procter & Gamble, Walmart, CPI, PPI, Club, Home Depot, Biotech Corporation, Music Entertainment, Central Puerto S.A, TeraWulf Inc, Paysafe Group Holdings, QuickLogic Corporation, Kopin Corp, Royalty Corp, Agilysys Inc, Crop Solutions Corp, Inovio Biomedical, Intercorp Financial, Lithium, Argentina ) Corp, Sea, Sony Group Corporation, SONY, Holding, HudBay Minerals, Autolus Therapeutics, Game Technology, Nu Holdings, Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp, Bakkt Holdings, Prestige Consumer Healthcare, SilverCrest Metals, Inc, Mining Corp, Acurx Pharmaceuticals, Cresco Labs, Dole plc, DOLE, Arcos Dorados Holdings, ARCO, Cisco Systems, Grab Holdings, Copa Holdings S.A, Technologies, Iris Energy, KORE Group, Super, Spero Therapeutics, ZTO, Baidu, Deere & Company, NICE, Lightspeed Commerce, Ship Lease, Canada Goose Holdings, Drainage Systems, Consolidated Water Co, Outlook Therapeutics, Despegar.com, Corp, DXC Technology Company, Flowers Foods, Bruker Corporation, WYNN, CNBC, Foods Locations: Procter &, Central, Cayman, Lithium Americas, Argentina, Manhattan, New York City
The five-month, 28% sprint from the October correction low to the record high on the last trading day of the first quarter left the S & P 500 overbought, overheated and over-loved. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD So far, so good, three weeks down and now three weeks up, taking the S & P 500 back to within 1% of its March 28 peak. More specifically, he tracks the correlation between S & P 500 and the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Fidelity Investments head of global macro Jurrien Timmer fashioned this look at the path of S & P 500 earnings heading into and through each calendar year, with 2024 holding up better than 2023 was last year at this time. The last time the S & P 500 was at today's level above 5200 in late March, the 12-month forward price/earnings multiple was 21.
Persons: that's, Jerome Powell, Scott Chronert, It's, Powell, Lori Calvasina, we've Organizations: U.S, Bank, Citi, Citi U.S, Fidelity Investments, Treasury, RBC Capital
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHealthcare costs will keep PCE elevated out of Fed's target range, says economist Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the overheated U.S. economy, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.
Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Healthcare, PCE, Nikko Securities America
The consumer, making up 70% of the U.S. economy, is being hit by higher interest rates and sticky inflation. Consumer spending, also known as personal consumption expenditures (PCE), typically represents about two-thirds of the U.S. GDP. While that is attributed to easing consumer demand for EVs, dealer inventories of ICE vehicles have recovered significantly since the pandemic. Away from consumer discretionary and towards consumer staples. The Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF (XLP) is trading 21 times trailing earnings and about 19.6 times forward earnings estimates versus 25.7 times trailing and 22.83 times forward for the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index.
Persons: there's, Tesla, Power Organizations: Starbucks, Investors, PPI, CPI, Federal Locations: U.S
With the Fed, Apple earnings and the jobs report passing with flying colors this week, the runway to more gains looks a lot less cluttered. This past week was chock full of Club earnings: 12 portfolio companies, including Apple , delivered results. Analysts expect Wynn's earnings per share of $1.27 versus 29 cents a year ago when China was not fully back from Covid. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jerome Powell, we're, Jim Cramer, Jim, Apple, Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Stanley Black, Decker, Bausch, FactSet, It's, Bob Iger, Iger, Nelson Peltz, We're, Krystal, Berkshire Hathaway, Tyson, Jones Lang, Walt, Ferrari N.V, WK Kellogg, Wynn, Vishay, CRON, MARA, RICK, Ginkgo, Jim Cramer's, David Paul Morris Organizations: Federal Reserve, Apple, GE Healthcare, DuPont, Linde, Bausch Health, Coterra Energy, Club, Disney, Wynn Resorts, CNBC, Revenue, Vegas Sands, Cotai, Boston, Airlines, Krystal Biotech, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Axsome Therapeutics, Tyson Foods, TSN, Bowlero Corp, CNA Financial Corp, CNA, Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated, Technologies, Realty Income Corp, Lab, Teradata Corp, Technology, FMC Corporation, FMC, Paymentus Holdings, Shockwave, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, Simon Property Group, Sterling Construction Company, Apple Hospitality, Boise Cascade Corporation, BellRing Brands, Coty, COTY, Fidelity National Information Services Inc, Vornado Realty, Walt Disney Co, Holdings, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Nikola Corporation, BP, Rockwell Automation, MarketAxess Holdings, Jumia Technologies, GEO Group, Builders FirstSource Inc, Duke Energy Corp, WYNN, Rivian Automotive, Arista Networks, Occidental Petroleum Corp, Astera Labs, Bros, Flywire Corporation, B2Gold Corp, Kinross Gold Corp, Virgin Galactic Holdings, iRobot Corp, Electronic Arts Inc, McKesson Corp, ACM Research, Avadel Pharmaceuticals, Toyota Motor Corp, Emerson Electric Co, Perion, Editas, Brink's Company, Sinclair Corporation, New Fortress Energy, Starwood Property Trust, Animal Health, ELAN, Farms, IM Cannabis Corp, Fox Corporation, Formula One, Icahn Enterprises, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Arm Holdings plc, ARM, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Trade, AppLovin Corporation, Sciences Corp, SolarEdge Technologies, Roblox Corporation, GigaCloud Technology Inc, Warner Bros ., Properties Trust, Growers, Constellation Energy Group, Cronos, Fiverr, Solar Inc, EPAM Systems, Cedar Fair Entertainment, Digital Holdings, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Akamai Technologies, Semiconductor, Insulet Corp, NuScale Power Corporation, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Bloom Energy Corporation, Construction, AMC Networks, CRH Public Ltd . Company, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Allen, Co . Media, Technology Conference, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: China, Eaton, Amazon, Covid, Macao, Vegas, Sun Valley , Idaho
The US economy is still firing on all cylinders despite slowing GDP growth in the first quarter. "The workhorse of the US economy remains the consumer, and there's really not much sign of a slowdown," Varghese said. AdvertisementThe US economy is firing on all cylinders despite a slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth, according to Carson Group global macro strategist Sonu Varghese. These are the five indicators that give Varghese confidence that the US consumer, and therefore the US economy, remains on solid footing. Income growth is outpacing inflationDespite elevated inflation, wage growth continues to outpace inflation growth, and that's ultimately a boon for consumers.
Persons: Sonu Varghese, there's, Varghese, that's, That's, " Varghese, here's Organizations: Carson, Carson Group
Treasury yields rise ahead of Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by around two basis points to 4.6343%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9809% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Tuesday as investors looked to economic data for hints about the state of the economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting. Investors awaited economic data and looked to the Federal Reserve's meeting, which is due to begin Tuesday and conclude Wednesday with a fresh interest rate decision and press conference. Last week, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, came in slightly above expectations for March.
Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Headline
From deeps rate cuts to a potential rate hike in 2024, one firm has changed its forecast in a big way. Macquarie said the resilient economy means potential interest rate cuts won't happen until 2025. Assuming the central bank moves the federal funds rate down by 25 basis point increments, that would equate to nine interest rate cuts just this year. AdvertisementThat lack of economic weakness has led to a stark shift in interest rate forecasts, with even the Federal Reserve suggesting that its initial projections of three interest rate cuts this year could dwindle to one rate cut or even none. That could be a double whammy for a stock market that had been largely fixated on interest rate cuts this year.
Persons: Macquarie, , David Doyle, Neil Shankar, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Macquarie, Federal Reserve, Fed, UBS
Treasury yields fall as investors look to Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than one basis point lower to 4.9830%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve policy meeting and economic data scheduled for this week. Investors awaited the Federal Reserve's meeting, which is set to begin Tuesday and conclude with an interest rate decision and press conference about policymakers' discussions on Wednesday. While markets are widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged, investors will be closely watching out for policy guidance from the central bank. This comes as recent economy data has suggested resilience from the economy and persistent inflationary pressures.
Persons: Dow Jones, payrolls Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors
Read previewThe Federal Reserve's fixation on a streak of "flawed" data to justify keeping interest rates higher for longer is bound to spark a policy mistake, according to top economist David Rosenberg. "The Fed seems to be focusing not just on flawed data, but on headlines only. Finally, he noted that the Fed's long-term view of the economy as still hot based on non-farm payroll data was dashed by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Business Employment Dynamics. Rosenberg pointed out that the payroll report may be exaggerating actual employment by 70,000 per month. Meanwhile, BED data indicated a 192,000 drop in private employment in Q3 of last year, whereas private job payroll data reported a significant 521,000 increase in that time.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Quarterly, Employment Dynamics
Sticky inflation has pushed mortgage rates up in recent months, and we likely won't see them trend down until inflation starts decelerating again. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Go Up (+0.23%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 6.48%, 23 basis points higher than last week. Mortgage Refinance Rates30-Year Fixed Refinance Rates Fall Slightly (-0.11%)The average 30-year refinance rate is 7.42%, 11 basis points lower than last week. Mortgage rates also rose dramatically in 2023, though they started trending back down toward the end of the year.
Persons: decelerating, it's, you'll, It's, refinance Organizations: Federal, US, of Economic, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron
This would force interest rates to stay higher for longer, putting pressure on US businesses and consumers. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA pair of economic reports has brought back a word no central banker ever wants to hear: stagflation. The difficult scenario occurs when inflation rises and growth stalls, a dangerous combination just experienced by the US economy.
Persons: stagflation, , Thursday's, LPL, Jeffrey Roach, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Jamie Dimon, Roach, shouldn't Organizations: Service, Federal, yesterday's, Fed, Wall Street, Bank of America
Most major forecasts believe that mortgage rates will ultimately trend down this year. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThis week's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.17%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched up to 6.44% this week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they're expected to go down at some point this year.
Persons: Fannie Mae, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Reserve, US, of, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron
This would force interest rates to stay higher for longer, putting pressure on US businesses and consumers. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA pair of economic reports has brought back a word no central banker ever wants to hear: stagflation. The difficult scenario occurs when inflation rises and growth stalls, a dangerous combination just experienced by the US economy.
Persons: stagflation, , Thursday's, LPL, Jeffrey Roach, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Jamie Dimon, Roach, shouldn't Organizations: Service, Federal, yesterday's, Fed, Wall Street, Bank of America
The consumer is strong, but weakening: Cantor's Eric Johnson
  + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe consumer is strong, but weakening: Cantor's Eric JohnsonCantor's Eric Johnson, Payne Capital's Courtney Garcia and Invesco's Brian Levitt, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, PCE, potential for rate cuts, and the state of the consumer.
Persons: Eric Johnson Cantor's Eric Johnson, Payne Capital's Courtney Garcia, Invesco's Brian Levitt
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow to position for growth in earnings, inflation, and the economySophie Lund-Yates, Senior Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at the Carson Group, discuss mega-cap tech earnings, today's PCE report, and the direction of the markets.
Persons: Sophie Lund, Yates, Hargreaves Lansdown, Ryan Detrick Organizations: Carson Group, PCE
An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold was little changed on Friday ahead of a key U.S. inflation report, but prices were on track for their first weekly drop in six weeks on easing concerns of a major escalation of the Middle East crisis. Focus now turns to March's core Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, index data due later on Friday — the Fed's preferred measure of inflation — for further clues on the U.S. rate outlook. The dollar index was headed for its biggest weekly dip since early March, making the greenback-priced bullion less expensive for other currency holders. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $27.49 per ounce, spot platinum rose 0.8% to $921.45 and palladium gained 1.4% to $988.22.
Persons: Gold, Yeap Jun Rong, Jun Rong Organizations: Co, Federal Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, U.S
New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation reading is due Friday morning. Investors are nervously awaiting the report after first-quarter US GDP came in softer than expected Thursday. Stocks tumbled as the slowdown in GDP, coupled with stubbornly high inflation data, stoked fears of stagflation. Wall Street earlier this year expected that the central bank would ease rates as many as six times in 2024, beginning in March. Yellen said the weaker reading was not “concerning,” mentioning that measures of underlying growth were strong in Thursday’s report.
Persons: Stocks, , Ayako Yoshioka, Janet Yellen, Alessandra Galloni, Alicia Wallace, ” Yellen, , we’ve, Yellen, Read, Freddie Mac, Bryan Mena, Lawrence Yun Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Gross, Commerce Department, Atlanta, Fed, Thursday’s, Group, Traders, Bank of America, Reuters, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York, Yellen
The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, , MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, , ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, , ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Cantor’s Eric Johnson, Payne’s Courtney Garcia and Invesco’s Brian LevittCantor's Eric Johnson, Payne Capital's Courtney Garcia and Invesco's Brian Levitt, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, PCE, potential for rate cuts, and the state of the consumer.
Persons: Cantor’s Eric Johnson, Payne’s Courtney Garcia, Invesco’s Brian Levitt, Eric Johnson, Payne Capital's Courtney Garcia, Invesco's Brian Levitt
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