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Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation is "much much too high" despite the rate hikes. Investors now await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for any clues on potential rate cuts this year. Shares of Magellan jumped 13.7%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.14-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.92-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded six new 52-week highs and seven new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 44 new highs and 110 new lows.

"And as Washington leaks out increments with rolling disclosure about how the discussions are proceeding ... that probably is bolstering confidence in investors." ET, Dow e-minis were up 51 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.5 points, or 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20.75 points, or 0.15%. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year as he does not see inflation going down as fast as market participants believe. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook are among other Fed officials set to speak later in the day. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Debt ceiling jitters, Turkey vote, Soros ditches Tesla
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

President Joe Biden is meeting Congressional leaders on Tuesday to try to hash out a compromise to raise the debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default. A regulatory filing on Friday from the family office of George Soros showed the 92-year old billionaire investor has sold his entire stake in Tesla. Soros bought shares in the electric vehicle maker, run by Elon Musk, in 2022, as well as convertible bonds in 2018. Soros wasn't alone in pulling out of some of the pandemic-era darlings in the first three months of the year. Friday's regulatory filing showed he loaded up on other big tech stocks, including Netflix, Uber, chipmaker Qualcomm and cloud-based data company Snowflake - which fellow 92-year old investor Warren Buffett bought into back in 2020.

☆ Gold retreats as dollar gains upper hand
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Spot gold was last down 0.75% to $2,014.3021 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled down 0.8% to $2,020.50. Gold popped up after data showed a jump in weekly jobless claims and the smallest annual increase in producer prices last month in over two years. However, the metal soon gave up those gains as the dollar rose, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. While this weighs on sentiment for gold "to a certain extent, the precious metal remains in its uptrend channel established in November," said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals dealer at Heraeus. Gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation, but elevated interest rates dim appeal for zero-yield bullion.

☆ Oil prices slide 2%, US jobless data and debt-ceiling talks weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices slid about 2% on Thursday as a political standoff over the U.S. debt ceiling stoked recession jitters in the world's biggest oil consumer, while rising U.S. jobless claims weighed on sentiment and a stronger dollar pressured oil too. A stronger U.S. dollar makes oil more expensive in other countries. Higher interest rates can weigh on oil demand by boosting borrowing costs, pressuring economic growth. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged Congress to raise the $31.4 trillion federal debt limit and avert an unprecedented default that would trigger a global economic downturn. U.S. producer prices rose moderately last month, the smallest annual producer inflation increase in more than two years.

☆ Oil heads for third straight weekly loss as economic worries persist
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices held steady in early trading on Friday, but were set for a third straight week of losses after markets witnessed dramatic drops on fears of a weakening U.S. economy and slowing Chinese demand. For the week, Brent was set to close down 8.7%, while WTI was set to close 10.5% lower. Worries of a U.S. regional banking crisis persisted, worrying markets further, after PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) said it planned to explore strategic options. Traders are now focused on the release of U.S. employment data for April later in the day, hoping it could help gauge the health of the economy, as well as comments on monetary policy from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at the Economic Club of Minnesota. Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil ticks up, but set for third week of losses over demand concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose slightly in Asian morning trade on Friday, but were set for a third straight week of losses after markets witnessed dramatic drops on fears of a weakening U.S. economy and slowing Chinese demand. For the week, Brent was set to close down 8.5%, while WTI was set to close 10.3% lower. "It has been a double whammy for oil prices," said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG in Singapore. In China, factory activity unexpectedly contracted in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector. Service activity in China grew through April, though the rate of this expansion has slowed, data showed on Friday.

The path to the pause will roll out in marquee monthly data on the key topics of jobs and prices, but also weekly series tracking emerging concerns about the financial industry. Here's a guide to what's ahead:JOBS: Next release May 5The data calendar will let the Fed receive two monthly jobs reports, covering April and May, before its June 13-14 policy meeting. For the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the measure used to set the Fed's 2% inflation target, only the April report will be available. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsFEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting. The curtain of silence around the May meeting lifts on Friday, May 5, and Fed officials can speak publicly about their views through Friday, June 2.

Fed bank directors don't vote on monetary policy, but they do express their views through non-binding votes on the discount rate, which is what the Fed charges to commercial banks for emergency loans. Fed bank presidents say their directors provide key information on the state of the economy. Despite their boards' preference for something different, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joined other Fed policymakers in a unanimous vote last month to lift the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester do not cast policy votes this year. Fed meeting minutes never specify which policymakers made which comments.

The Labor Department data showed headline and core CPI in March rose 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, on a month-on-month basis. "We are finally starting to see the cumulative effects of the relentless rate hikes," said Peter Andersen, founder at Andersen Capital Management. US inflation, Fed rates and marketsMinutes from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting in March will also be watched closely by investors later in the day for further clues on the trajectory of interest rates. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps last month and signaled it was on the verge of pausing further rate hikes. ET, Dow e-minis were up 220 points, or 0.65%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 33 points, or 0.80%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 130 points, or 0.99%.

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks defy negativity in CPI vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate stance hinges on incoming data such as Wednesday's consumer price report, but fears of recession remain just that. And so investors return to scrutinising the Fed to see if the central bank forces the recession by tightening ever further. With Fed policy meeting minutes due later in the day, the runes of what must have been a tense gathering of officials in the middle of the regional banking shock will be eyed closely. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reckoned recession was still a risk but inflation wouldn't get back close to the 2% target until next year. Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) underperformed overnight - with geopolitical tensions high surrounding Taiwan and Chinese military operations around the island.

☆ Oil edges up as market awaits key US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Muyu Xu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Wednesday as the market waited for U.S. inflation data later in the day that will likely influence the Federal Reserve's policy on future interest rate hikes. The U.S. consumer price index is expected to show March core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-on-year (USCPFY=ECI), according to a Reuters poll of economists. In another negative for oil demand, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook, citing the impact of higher interest rates. In addition to the inflation data, the market is waiting for more clarity on oil demand and supply with monthly reports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency due on Thursday and Friday respectively. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday cut its forecast for oil production by OPEC countries by 0.5 million barrels-per-day for the rest of 2023 and cut its 2023 world oil demand growth forecast by 40,000 bpd.

☆ Oil steady as market awaits key US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Muyu Xu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices were mostly steady on Wednesday as the market waited for U.S. inflation data later in the day that will likely influence the Federal Reserve's policy on future interest rate hikes. The U.S. consumer price index is expected to show March core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-on-year (USCPFY=ECI), according to a Reuters poll of economists. In another negative for oil demand, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook, citing the impact of higher interest rates. In addition to the inflation data, the market is waiting for more clarity on oil demand and supply with monthly reports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency due on Thursday and Friday respectively. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday cut its forecast for oil production by OPEC countries by 0.5 million barrels-per-day for the rest of 2023 and cut its 2023 world oil demand growth forecast by 40,000 bpd.

☆ Oil steady after surprise build in U.S. crude stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed in early trading on Wednesday after industry data showed an unexpected build in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, offsetting concerns about tightening supply ahead of output cuts by OPEC producers. In a sign of market tightness, U.S. crude futures have flipped into backwardation, with the front month contract trading 6 cents higher than the second month. Brent crude fell 5 cents at $85.57 a barrel by 0029 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 6 cents to $81.48 a barrel. Prices had risen about 2% on Tuesday on hopes that the Federal Reserve might slow its policy tightening after U.S. consumer prices data releases on Wednesday. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels the U.S. central bank may soon be done raising interest rates, while Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said he believes inflation, now at a rate of 5% by the Fed's preferred measure, will get to "the mid-threes" by the end of this year.

☆ Fed's Kashkari: Recession possible, but high inflation would be worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

April 11 (Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday said the Fed's interest-rate hikes and a possible pullback in lending after two bank failures last month could trigger a recession, but allowing inflation to stay high would be even worse for the labor market. That might even lead to a recession," Kashkari said in a town hall at Montana State University, in answer to a student question about job prospects. Yields on long-term bonds are lower than those on shorter-term bonds, known as the "yield-curve inversion" and which is often a harbinger of a recession. Kashkari said he reads the pricing in bond markets as reflecting an expectation that inflation will fall quickly, allowing the Fed to cut rates. Most Fed policymakers see inflation falling to somewhere in the 3%-3.8% range by year-end, projections show, with the median projection at 3.3%.

☆ Morning Bid: Glass half full on disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Headline March consumer price inflation is expected to drop as low as 5.2% from 6% - showing the disinflation journey from more than 40-year highs of 9.2% last June to the Fed's 2% target more than half way there. The rider is that headline inflation rates are expected be below stickier annual 'core' rates, which are forecast to have ticked higher to 5.6% last month. The International Monetary Fund's updated World Economic Outlook is also due on Tuesday ahead of the Fund's Spring meeting in Washington. The disinflation picture was encouraged around the world on Tuesday as Chinese consumer price inflation hit an 18-month low last month and the annual decline in factory prices sped up. Hopes that central bank rates are cresting worldwide lifted risk appetite across the spectrum with major cryptocurrency bitcoin broke back above $30,000 level for the first time in 10 months on Tuesday.

☆ Treasury yields dip as investors look to Fed speaker remarks ahead of key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over two basis points to 3.3887%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as investors awaited a series of comments from Federal Reserve officials and looked to key inflation data due later in the week. Investors braced themselves for fresh inflation figures due this week, including the consumer price index print and core inflation figures on Wednesday and the producer price index report on Thursday. Before then, investors will hear from a series of central bank officials, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari due to make remarks on Tuesday. Investors will be scanning their comments for hints about the Fed's expectations for inflation and monetary policy.

☆ Stock futures are flat Monday as March inflation reports loom ahead: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Monday night as investors look toward the release of economic data later this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked higher by 29 points, or 0.09%. And that can't be determined until we get those data points start coming in in real time. But I think that's what the market is waiting on," said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments. Several central bank speakers will make appearances on Tuesday: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will be speaking that afternoon and evening.

There are uncertainties," Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Friday. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin struck a similar note last week. "When you raise rates there's always the risk of the economy softening faster than it might have otherwise. "People will continue to spend as long as they get paid," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist with BNP Paribas. It will, but only at the point at which they stop getting paid" because of a slowing economy and rising unemployment.

☆ Private bankruptcy filings are blowing past their COVID-era peaks as credit stress builds for small businesses
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Private bankruptcy filings this year have surpassed a peak set in the early stage of the pandemic, UBS said. So far in 2023, private bankruptcy filings have outstripped a peak set in the early stage of the COVID pandemic by a wide margin. Bankruptcy hot spots include the real estate industry, which has led this year's increase in private bankruptcy filings. The UBS Evidence Lab Corporate Bankruptcy Monitor tracks US corporate chapter 7, 11, and 15 bankruptcy filings. After sifting through data, UBS outlined several takeaways, including that private bankruptcy filings are led by the real estate, chemicals, healthcare, and retail industries.

☆ Stocks rise and dollar falls while oil rallies
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 30, 2023. Economists polled by Reuters expect core prices rose by 0.4% in February and posted an annual increase of 4.7%. The U.S. dollar slipped to a one-week low against the euro as German inflation data helped lift the common currency. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) closed up 0.72% while emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) rose 0.67%. Gold prices gained with a weaker dollar and lower bond yields driving demand for the precious metal, while investors waited for U.S. inflation data to gauge the Fed's next move.

“I have argued for years that the biggest banks in the world are still too big to fail. In practice, however, the economic damage would be considerable.”Keller-Sutter was at the center of a government-orchestrated rescue of Credit Suisse by its larger rival UBS (UBS) earlier this month. They were designed to make it possible to wind down a big bank without destabilizing the financial system or exposing taxpayers to the risk of losses. Although some investors in Credit Suisse bonds lost everything, Swiss taxpayers are still on the hook for up to 9 billion Swiss francs ($9.8 billion) of potential losses arising from certain Credit Suisse assets. The rest is lent out at higher interest rates or invested, because that’s how big banks make most of their profit.

“I have argued for years that the biggest banks in the world are still too big to fail. In practice, however, the economic damage would be considerable.”Keller-Sutter was at the center of a government-orchestrated rescue of Credit Suisse by its larger rival UBS (UBS) earlier this month. Global standards for dealing with teetering “too big to fail” banks were key a part of the package of rules introduced after the global financial crisis. They were designed to make it possible to wind down a big bank without destabilizing the financial system or exposing taxpayers to the risk of losses. The rest is lent out at higher interest rates or invested, because that’s how big banks make most of their profit.

☆ Futures rise as bank fears ebb, focus shifts to key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Investors will now watch out for February data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - that is due on Friday for further clues on the central bank's rate-hike trajectory. Traders' bets are still tilted towards a pause in rate hikes in May, with rate cuts expected soon after that. Final estimates for quarterly U.S. economic growth are expected to confirm gross domestic product likely remained unchanged at 2.7% in the fourth quarter. ET, Dow e-minis were up 145 points, or 0.44%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 15.75 points, or 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 32.5 points, or 0.25%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: World markets leaving March like a lamb
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanIn like a lion, out like a lamb. Farmers' almanacs suggest a stormy and turbulent start to March means it's likely to end calm and serene - and so it appears with world financial markets this year. The evidence is sketchy so far and the impact on lending and credit generally will be examined forensically from here. That U-turn in thinking during the month saw wild swings in the bond and rates markets, where key volatility gauges (.MOVE) hit their highest since the 2008 crash. (.CESIUSD)Elsewhere, European markets continued to advance on Thursday, with banking stocks (.SX7P) up another 2% and credit default swaps on many banks lower too.

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