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☆ Canada port strike may add to inflation concerns ahead of rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] A view shows placards as longshoremen with the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Canada (ILWU) strike outside the Port of Vancouver's Neptune Bulk Terminals in North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada July 5, 2023. Some 7,500 dock workers went on strike on Saturday for higher wages, upending operations at two of Canada's three busiest ports, the Port of Vancouver and Port of Prince Rupert. Money markets expect the central bank to tighten further, possibly as soon as at a policy decision next Wednesday. The Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CM&E) industry body said the strike is disrupting C$500 million in trade every day. ($1 = 1.3360 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Fergal Smith, editing by Steve Scherer and Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Port of Prince Rupert, Andrew Grantham, Seamus O'Regan, It's, Robert Kavcic, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Josie Kao Organizations: Warehouse Union, REUTERS, TORONTO, Bank of Canada, BoC, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of, Reuters, Twitter, Canadian Manufacturers, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: of, North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Port of Vancouver, Port of, Bank of Canada

July 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Traders will also have Japanese, Australian and Indian services PMIs to digest, as well as the latest inflation data from Thailand and the Philippines, and can expect trading volume to return to more normal levels after the July 4 U.S. holiday. Service sector activity, however, has held up reasonably well and has expanded every month this year, according to the PMI data. This comes ahead of a planned visit to Beijing by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Janet Yellen, Alistair Bell Organizations: Service, PMI, U.S, Treasury, Reserve Bank of Australia, PMIs, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Thailand, Philippines, Beijing, Tokyo, Japan, China, India, Australia

☆ Canadian dollar edges higher as oil prices climb
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Canadian dollar strengthens 0.2% against the greenbackPrice of U.S. oil increases 2%Canada manufacturing PMI dips to 48.8 in JuneCanadian bond yields rise across the curveTORONTO, July 4 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as oil prices rose and despite domestic data that showed factory activity slowing further in June. Speculators have slashed their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday. The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, climbed 2% to $71.16 a barrel as markets weighed August supply cuts by top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia against a weak global economic outlook. Contraction in Canada's manufacturing sector deepened slightly in June as an uncertain economic outlook weighed on both domestic and foreign demand. Canadian government bond yields were higher across the curve, with the 10-year up 6.4 basis points at 3.335%.

Persons: greenback Price, Fergal Smith, Josie Kao Organizations: greenback, Canadian, U.S, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading, P Global Canada Manufacturing, Bank of Canada, BoC, Thomson Locations: Canada, TORONTO, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Canadian firms see labor market pressure easing, near-term inflation slowing
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

By Steve SchererOTTAWA, June 30 (Reuters) - Canadian businesses see labor pressures easing and expect short-term inflation to edge down, the Bank of Canada said on Friday in a second quarter survey, but fewer firms expect an outright recession over the next year than three months ago. More businesses still expect wage growth over the next year, but the second-quarter number is a third of what it was a year ago. An increasing number of firms see both their input costs and the prices of what they sell declining over the next year. "Although labor shortages remain common in some sectors, pressures on the labor market are easing due to decreased competition for workers and increased labor supply," the report said. "Firms expect growth in their wages to moderate from high levels."

Persons: Steve Scherer OTTAWA, Steve Scherer, Ismail Shakil Organizations: Bank of Canada, BoC, Thomson

☆ Canada's economy unchanged in April, but likely surged 0.4% in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

OTTAWA, June 30 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy was unchanged in April from March, missing forecasts, before likely rebounding with a 0.4% jump in real gross domestic product in May, Statistics Canada said on Friday. March GDP was upwardly revised to 0.1% growth from an initial report of flat growth. Canada's goods-producing sector expanded 0.1% in April, but were offset by a slight decline in the service-producing sector. The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector and the utilities sector are expected to be post declines in May. Declines in wholesale trade as well as finance and insurance also contributed to the softness in the services sector.

Persons: Statscan, Ismail Shakil, Dale Smith Organizations: OTTAWA, Statistics, Reuters, Bank of Canada, Public Service Alliance of Canada, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Ottawa

OTTAWA, June 30 (Reuters) - Canada's economy regained momentum in May after stalling in April, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday, leaving the door open for the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates in July. The economy was unchanged in April from March, missing forecasts, in what economists said was the fallout from a federal civil servant strike in April. Canada's goods-producing sector expanded 0.1% in April, but were offset by a slight decline in the service-producing sector. Figueiredo expects the central bank to raise interest rate by another 0.25% in July. Money markets see a roughly 61% chance of the central bank hiking rates in July.

Persons: Statscan, it's, Doug Porter, Desjardins, Tiago Figueiredo, Figueiredo, Ismail Shakil, Nivedita Balu, Dale Smith, Jonathan Oatis, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: OTTAWA, Statistics, Bank of Canada, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Public Service Alliance of Canada, Toronto Stock, Canadian, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Toronto

☆ Canadian dollar hits 2-week low as rate hike bets recede
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie was trading 0.5% lower at 1.3250 to the greenback, or 75.47 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since June 15 at 1.3276. "The market is losing confidence that the Bank of Canada will hike again next month," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. Money markets see a 55% chance of a rate hike at the Bank of Canada's next policy decision on July 12, down from 64% before data on Tuesday that showed inflation easing to its slowest pace in two years. "The Bank of Canada is going to see economic weakness developing in Canada." One potential measure of support for the loonie was a rebound in the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports.

Persons: Adam Button, Button, Jerome Powell, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: greenback, Canadian, U.S, Bank of Canada, Bank of, of Canada, U.S ., Thomson Locations: TORONTO, Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada's, Canada

LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - Western central banks have been warned this week not to quit in the final lap of their monetary tightening campaign - the hard yards households and financial markets may now find exhausting. And yet, desperate for their members not to declare premature victory in getting inflation back to 2% targets or sow an assumption above-target inflation will eventually be tolerated, central bank watchdogs are cheerleading a last push. But that's not in forecasts this time around - with U.S. and UK headline inflation rates not back to target by the end of next year and the euro zone not even by then. 'Last Mile' of disinflationBIS chart on speed of disinflation'UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTHS'And the BIS message was echoed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday. "Monetary policy should continue to tighten and then remain in restrictive territory until core inflation is on a clear downward path," she said.

Persons: that's, Gita Gopinath, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Jerome Powell's, John Williams, Williams, Joseph Little, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, for Economic Cooperation, International Monetary Fund, Bank's, IMF, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Bank of England, Global, HSBC Asset Management, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Portugal

Her comments followed a hawkish stance by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his two-day testimony before the Senate Banking Committee earlier this week. Markets calmed briefly and the S&P 500 (.SPX) and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) added some gains in the previous session after Powell said the Fed will proceed with caution. We've heard from the various Fed governors, Powell talk about higher interest rates," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest. Yields on the 2-year, which best reflects interest rate expectations, dropped to hover at 4.71% on Friday. Investors will also monitor comments from some Fed policymakers due to speak later in the day.

Persons: Mary Daly, Jerome Powell, Powell, We're, We've, Paul Nolte, advancers, Shubham Batra, Shristi, Arun Koyyur Organizations: Starbucks, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed Bank, Reuters, Committee, Murphy, Apple, Microsoft, Dow Jones, 3M, Carmax Inc, Starbucks Corp, NYSE, Thomson Locations: San, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Dollar rises as hawkish central banks dent risk sentiment, sterling slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While higher rates are typically supportive of currencies, the risk that they will trigger an economic downturn has pushed some investors to seek safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar. The Turkish lira slid to a record low of 25.589 against the U.S. dollar, after the Turkey's central bank 650 basis points hike to 15% on Thursday missed expectations. In other currencies, the dollar rose broadly and stood near an over seven-month high against the yen at 142.90. The euro slipped 0.04% to $1.0950, while the U.S. dollar rose 0.05% against a basket of six major peers to 102.44. "Most of the Western central banks are now more hawkish than previously projected," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets.

Persons: stoked, Sterling, BoE, Nick Bennenbroek, Jerome Powell, Tina Teng, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S ., Bank of Japan, U.S, Federal, Fed, Swiss National Bank, CMC Markets, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Wells Fargo

☆ Dollar rises as hawkish central banks cast shadow over growth outlook; dent risk sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Rate hike surprises and hawkish comments from central banks globally have renewed market fears that policymakers have further to go in tightening policy to tame inflation, even at the risk of tipping their economies into a recession. Norway's central bank on Thursday also stunned markets with a 50 bp rate hike and said it aimed for another hike in August. "Markets are definitely taken by surprise by the recent, more aggressive actions that some central banks had to take," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ. "Also putting into question the following trend of other central banks that initially looked like they've paused but went on to hike rates ... so that's something that markets are starting to become worried about again." Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday the central bank would move interest rates at a "careful pace" from here.

Persons: stoked, Sterling, Nick Bennenbroek, Khoon Goh, they've, Jerome Powell Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S ., The, New, Swiss National Bank, ANZ, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Fed Locations: Wells Fargo, New Zealand, Asia

☆ VIEW Bank of England delivers hefty rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Traders scrambled to price in a peak to UK rates of as much 6% and its implications for the risk of recession, and rate-sensitive stocks like banks and homebuilders slid. MONEY MARKETS: UK 2-year gilts dropped sharply, then rose after the decision but were last unchanged at 5.04%. But even if the bank hasn't offered up any new guidance, the rate decision itself is revealing. The UK has the unenviable title of highest core inflation rate in the G7, and by quite some margin. "Having said that, their policy is now more data dependent, the bank had to deliver a rate increase.

Persons: homebuilders, Sterling, gilts, JAMIE NIVEN, JAMES SMITH, hasn’t, hasn't, BoE, SEEMA SHAH, CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, Bailey, PAUL OBERSCHNEIDER, BOE, ” ROBERT JEFFREE, GARY SMITH, EVELYN, Yoruk Organizations: Bank of England, MPC, Traders, CANDRIAM, ING, LONDON, IG GROUP, Treasury, EMEA, Thomson

Powell is due to deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. Still, the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) has advanced 14.3% so far this year. It holds chances of a recession at 25%, and in that base case, it expects the S&P 500 to rise to 4,500 - about 2.5% higher than current levels. ET, Dow e-minis were down 17 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 1.25 points, or 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 12.5 points, or 0.08%. Reporting by Shubham Batra and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tesla, Jerome, Powell, Peter Andersen, Goldman Sachs, Li Auto, Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester, Shubham Batra, Johann M, Arun Koyyur Organizations: FedEx, China, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Financial, Fed, Andersen Capital Management, Tesla Inc, Dow e, Coinbase, Nio Inc, Xpeng, Thomson Locations: Texas, U.S, China, Chicago, Bengaluru

All S&P 500 sub-sectors fell, with the rate-sensitive real estate sector (.SPLRCR) leading the declines, with a 0.8% drop. In the previous session, Wall Street's main indexes fell as investors booked profits in the wake of a sustained market rally amid signs of weakening global demand. Still, the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) has advanced around 14% so far this year. If a U.S. recession becomes more likely, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) said investors should maintain upside exposure to equities by using options to hedge a potential 23% fall in the S&P 500 index (.SPX). It holds chances of a recession at 25%, and in that base case, it expects the S&P 500 to rise to 4,500 - about 2.5% higher than current levels.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Volcker, that's, Peter Cardillo, Goldman Sachs, Li Auto, advancers, Shubham Batra, Johann M Cherian, Ankika Biswas, Stephen Culp, Arun Koyyur Organizations: FedEx, China EV, Dow, Financial, U.S, Fed, Spartan Capital Securities, United Parcel Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nio Inc, Xpeng, Adobe, Capital Markets, NYSE, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Powell patter, UK shock, FedEx warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanThe Fed chair has a tricky message to communicate. Powell's colleagues on Tuesday stressed again they would stay the course until inflation is back to its 2% target. UK inflation defied expectations of a slowdown and held at 8.7% in May, while 'core' inflation jumped above 7% for the first time since 1992. In corporate news, FedEx FDX.N shares dropped almost 3% overnight after a profit warning. Events to watch for later on Wednesday:* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies to House Financial Affairs Committee.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, rationalises, Powell's, Treasuries, BoE, Sterling recoiled, Rivian, Jerome Powell, Adrian Kugler, Philip Jefferson's, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Christina Fincher Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, Bank of, FedEx FDX.N, Rivals Rivian, European, Financial, Fed Board, Chicago Fed, Cleveland Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Britain, Bank of England, China

☆ Morning Bid: US housing rebound, China prime cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The main macroeconomic news overnight was a rather underwhelming Chinese rate cut that seemed to disappoint the local stock and currency markets, both of which fell. The People's Bank of China cut two benchmark lending rates - its one-year and five-year loan prime rates - by 10 basis points each. With Goldman Sachs on Monday the latest to cut China growth forecasts for this year and next, nerves about the economy's trajectory are rising again. The big U.S. data input this week is from the housing sector, where signs of some recovery are reinforcing 'soft landing' hopes for the wider economy. On Monday, the NAHB's house market sentiment index rose in June to its highest in almost a year and far above forecasts.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping, Antony Blinken, Joe Biden, what's, BOE, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, John Williams, St Louis, James Bullard, Narendra Modi, Susan Fenton Organizations: Nasdaq, People's Bank of China, Washington, China's, of, Global, Bank of, Federal Reserve, FedEx, Philadelphia Fed, Federal, New York Fed, St, St Louis Fed, Indian, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Xi, Europe, Britain, Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, Bank, Bank of England, United

The MSCI's broad gauge of world stocks ticked 0.2% higher, (.MIWD00000PUS), with Wall Street markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday. After a week in which the stock market cheered the Fed's decision to skip a rate increase in June, Powell is scheduled to deliver congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. Billions of dollars have flowed into big tech in recent weeks, with analysts citing the productivity-improving potential of artificial intelligence for the rally. "The obvious narrative of AI has dominated this rally in tech stocks," said Dan Cartridge, portfolio manager at Hawksmoor. The 10-year British gilt yield stood at 4.462%, in an inverted yield curve pattern that can precede recessions.

Persons: BoE, Jerome Powell, Powell, Hawksmoor, Hong, HSI, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Tom Hogue, Gerry Doyle, Emma Rumney Organizations: Nikkei, Global, . Federal, Wall, Bank of England, Japan's Nikkei, People's Bank of, Friday's dovish Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, SYDNEY, Europe, U.S, Asia, Beijing, People's Bank of China

☆ Dollar nudges up, UK pound near 14-month highs ahead of BoE decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Iain Withers | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major counterparts, ticked up 0.1% to 102.400. Markets are pricing in a 72% probability of the Fed hiking by 25 basis points next month, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Investors expect the Bank of England to hike rates by at least 25 basis points when it meets on Thursday, as it battles inflation running at more than four times its target. The pound is changing hands near 14-month highs against the dollar on expectations UK rate rises will outpace other major economies. Money markets place a 75% chance of the BoE opting for a 25 basis points hike and a 25% likelihood of a 50 basis point jump.

Persons: Jerome Powell, MUFG, BoE, Iain Withers, Ankur Banerjee, Emma Rumney Organizations: Bank of England, ., Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of, Traders, Federal, Investors, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, Singapore

☆ Take Five: Keep calm and raise rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

June 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is facing a stormy gilts market while Turkey's new governor is expected to ramp up rates sharply at central bank meetings in the week to come. Markets show traders are placing an almost one-in-five chance the BoE will raise rates by half a point next week, up from near zero at the start of June. Reuters Graphics2/ECONOMIC CHECK UPA raft of decidedly hawkish noises from big central banks - including the Fed - has once again raised questions about how much central bank tightening is accelerating a global slowdown. U.S. manufacturing contracted for a seventh straight month, as new orders continued to plummet amid higher interest rates. May's blockbuster employment report could also provide more leeway for the RBA to tighten rates further.

Persons: Antony Blinken, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Amanda Cooper, Karin Strohecker, BoE, confab, Philip Lowe, Ajay Banga, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Bank of England, U.S, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, Investors, Ukraine, Conference, New, Pact, World Bank, Thomson Locations: Beijing, London, Paris, Tokyo, New York, United States, Europe, Japan, U.S, Australia, China, Dnipro, Ukraine

☆ Morning Bid: ECB day to follow a hawkish Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A day after the Federal Reserve took markets by surprise with a hawkish message, it's the European Central Bank's turn in the hot seat. While the Fed was widely expected to, and did, keep rates unchanged, the U.S. central bank left the door open to more increases ahead. And so to the ECB, which is all but certain to raise borrowing costs to their highest level in 22 years on Thursday. Even after the more hawkish message from the Fed on Wednesday, market pricing for the rate trajectory has not changed too much. Money markets price in roughly one more 25 basis point rate increase from the Fed, while the ECB may struggle to sound hawkish while inflation in the bloc is coming down.

Persons: BNY Mellon, It's, Dhara Ranasinghe, Jane Merriman Organizations: Federal Reserve, BNY, ECB, Fed, ING, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Dhara, United States, Europe

The housing market has totemic importance in Britain's consumption-driven economy and is closely linked to consumer confidence. The average mortgage rate on new two-year mortgage deals rose on Wednesday to 5.90%, according to property data provider Moneyfacts - the highest since December last year, in the aftermath of the mini-budget. "It takes a far lower mortgage rate to create the same amount of financial stress in terms of repayments as a double-digit mortgage rate did back in previous periods," Hudson said. Reuters GraphicsSTRESSThe question now is how mortgage market stress will feed through into the real economy. Jamie Lennox, director at broker Dimora Mortgages, said there was "no end in sight" for the trouble in the mortgage market.

Persons: Hannah McKay, Liz Truss, We're, Neal Hudson, Hudson, Jamie Lennox, shivers, BoE, Philip Shaw, Lucy Raitano, Iain Withers, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Investors, HSBC, Reuters, Financial, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, BoE's

For some, the answer to exuberant markets lies in the ample cash still sloshing around the financial system. Total global liquidity, a measure of cash and credit in the world economy, has risen to almost $170 trillion in June, Crossborder calculates, from $158 trillion in October. Central banks have added a net $1.7 trillion into money markets since November, it also estimates, a move that correlates with a risk-taking trend. But an alternative scenario is that U.S. money market funds, stuffed with cash after depositors fled regional banks in March, buy enough newly issued Treasuries to keep rates stable. "Liquidity is not a force that reverberates immediately into financial markets," said JPMorgan global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

Persons: Michael Howell, Crossborder, Richard Clarida, Georgina Taylor, Ken Taubes, reverberates, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Morgan Stanley, Luca Paolini, Paolini, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Crossborder Capital, U.S, Reuters, BNP, JPMorgan, Apple, Thomson Locations: Japan, U.S

☆ Shares get a tech boost; dollar dithers ahead of inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 9, 2023. REUTERS/StaffLONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Global shares rose on Tuesday, taking their lead from an upbeat session on Wall Street ahead of key U.S. inflation data that could shape the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Money markets show traders now anticipate a peak in UK rates at around 5.6% by February, up from a terminal rate of 4.85% by November a month ago. In currencies, the dollar index , which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others, fell 0.2% to 103.32. Sterling rose 0.4% against the dollar to $1.2567 after the UK wage data , while the euro rose 0.4% to $1.0796.

Persons: Michael Hewson, it’s, BoE, we've, Fiona Cincotta, Farouq Suleiman, Julie Zhu, Christopher Cushing, Jamie Freed, Simon Cameron, Moore, Conor Humphries Organizations: REUTERS, Staff LONDON, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Amazon, Apple, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Fed, ECB, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of, Sterling, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, Swedish, Bank of Japan, London, Hong Kong

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 9, 2023. Wall Street futures were up, pointing to another session of gains after the S&P 500 rose for the fourth week in a row last week. "Obviously if we have a big negative surprise on inflation and inflation comes in much hotter than expected, that is going to challenge central banks and the Fed in its 'pause' strategy," he said. Money markets are pricing in around a 75% chance of the Fed keeping rates steady, and a 25% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: Europe's, Samy Chaar, Lombard, Elizabeth Howcroft, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, CPI, Fed, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Wall, Nasdaq, Investors, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, China, U.S, Europe, Hong Kong

☆ FACTBOX Wall Street banks expect 'hawkish pause' from Fed in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

June 12 (Reuters) - Most big Wall Street banks expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, while sticking to its hawkish tone due to a strong job market and elevated inflation. Several economists say that it is a toss-up between a skip and a hike in the June meeting. Most banks expect the central bank to prepare markets for a hike in July. Money markets are currently pricing in a more than 70% chance of a pause this month, with rate cut expectations pushed out to next year. Following are forecasts from some big U.S. banks and their global counterparts:(This story has been corrected to change the dateline to June 12)Compiled by Broker Research team in BengaluruOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Research, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

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