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☆ Morning Bid: Wild oil ride amid China and crypto woe
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] General view of the oil refinery, part of Grupa Lotos taken over by PKN Orlen in 2022, in Gdansk, Poland August 9, 2022. Turbulence in oil, China's COVID crunch and unravelling cryptocurrencies make for uncomfortable reading for investors starting to parse what looks like a recessionary year ahead. Higher interest rates and slowing economies dominate most 2023 outlooks, not least Tuesday's latest from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Underlining the growth gloom, China's battle with COVID and its widening curbs only seemed to worsen. Pain in the crypto world continued, with many investors fearing the fallout from the collapse of exchange FTX is just beginning.

"What's going on in China is going to take centre stage," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. MUFG analysts noted that more cautious remarks from Fed officials were also been a factor in the dollar losing some momentum on Tuesday. The major factor driving dollar moves in recent months has been market expectations of how aggressively the Federal Reserve will raise rates. The dollar fell 0.5% on the offshore yuan to 7.1412, having gained 0.7% overnight. The lending unit suspended redemptions last week, citing fallout from the collapse of FTX, which filed for bankruptcy on Nov 11.

☆ Dollar pauses climb; China COVID fears mount
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a surge in COVID cases sparking fresh restriction measures. The offshore yuan gained 0.3% to 7.1574 per dollar in Asia trade, after falling more than 0.7% overnight. "It could just be a consolidation phase after yesterday's pretty big move up," said Capurso of the U.S. dollar. The Japanese yen last traded 0.2% higher at 141.79 per dollar, after slumping more than 1% to the weaker side of 142 per dollar in the previous session. "It's more like a cork in the ocean, subject to risk aversion as well as movements in 10-year Treasury yields."

☆ Dollar steadies as China COVID fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a surge in COVID cases sparking fresh restriction measures. The offshore yuan traded 0.1% higher at 7.1665 per dollar in early Asia trade on Tuesday, after falling more than 0.7% overnight. The Japanese yen slumped more than 1% to the weaker side of 142 per dollar overnight and last traded 142.01. "It's more like a cork in the ocean, subject to risk aversion as well as movements in 10-year Treasury yields." "Fed comments remained in line with the recent slant of rhetoric," said economists at ING in a note.

☆ Dollar steadies as China Covid fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar pared some of its strong overnight gains on Tuesday after investors flocked to the safe-haven currency on nerves over China's Covid flare ups, though cautious risk sentiment kept the greenback in demand. China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the Covid-19 pandemic, with a surge in Covid cases sparking fresh restriction measures. The offshore yuan traded 0.1% higher at 7.1665 per dollar in early Asia trade on Tuesday, after falling more than 0.7% overnight. The Japanese yen slumped more than 1% to the weaker side of 142 per dollar overnight and last traded 142.01. "It's more like a cork in the ocean, subject to risk aversion as well as movements in 10-year Treasury yields ."

☆ Gold ticks up as dollar pauses advance; focus on Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,740.56 per ounce by 0033 GMT. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Monday the real-world impact of the U.S. central bank's interest rate hikes is likely greater than what its short-term rate target implies. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.2% to 906.06 tons on Monday. Spot silver advanced 0.4% to $20.92 per ounce, platinum also rose 0.3% to $985.30, while palladium added 0.6% to $1,877.14.

☆ Wall Street slips as concerns rise of stricter China COVID curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. casino operators with businesses in China including Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN.O), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS.N), MGM Resorts International (MGM.N) and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd all fell at least 2%. [1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 21, 2022. Energy was the only major S&P 500 sector eying gains for the year, surging around 63%. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.60-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 96 new highs and 220 new lows.

☆ Fed's Daly: Lots of options on table for December FOMC rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"I tend to be on the more hawkish side of the distribution” of policymakers, Daly told reporters on a conference call on Monday. While it’s likely the Fed will stop raising rates next year when its target rate, now at between 3.75% and 4%, hits 5%, “we could go higher” if inflation does not moderate, she said. Daly added that while there have been signs inflation may be starting to cool off, “it is way too early to call a turning point” for price pressures. Some policymakers have signaled an openness to smaller- sized rate rises after the aggressive path of increases seen so far this year. Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 21, 2022. "That's a piece of what's driving the tech stocks down because we rely so much on China and Taiwan for critical components." Energy was the only major S&P 500 sector eying gains for the year, surging around 63%. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.26-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.57-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 76 new highs and 194 new lows.

☆ Real impact of Fed hikes likely bigger than what target rate implies, Daly says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nov 21 (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Monday the real-world impact of the U.S. central bank's interest rate hikes is likely greater than what its short-term rate target implies. Compared to the current target rate, she added, "financial markets are acting like it is around 6%." Daly weighed in as Fed officials have continued to beat the drum for further rate rises aimed at lowering the highest levels of inflation in 40 years. The central bank has lifted its short-term target from a near-zero level in March. In economic projections released in September, Fed policymakers penciled in a mid-4% target rate for next year.

Funds' historic short position in two-year Treasuries futures coincides with the recent ramping up in anti-inflation rhetoric from Fed policymakers, including those of a more dovish inclination, such as San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Hedge funds, going by Commodity Futures Trading Commission positioning data, have thrown in the towel completely. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds and rates, yields fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall. Funds' record short position in two-year Treasuries futures suggests that's exactly what speculators are positioning for again.

☆ San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly says it's entering a difficult time of tightening
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSan Francisco Fed's Mary Daly says it's entering a difficult time of tighteningCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'The Exchange' to report on San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's comments on market behavior and Fed funds rate.

☆ Morning Bid: Bucking the trend
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With an anxious look at China's worsening COVID surge, the U.S. dollar appears revitalized just as speculators turn against it for the first time this year. Peak interest rates, peak COVID, peak energy all get discussed as themes for 2023, along with recession risks, a return of bonds and a cresting of the supercharged dollar - which has already given back almost half its near 20% surge this year. With one eye on Federal Reserve meeting minutes later in the week, futures markets continue to nudge peak Fed rates next year further above the 5% level. Also anxious about the unfolding property bust, China's central bank and banking and insurance regulator said domestic banks should step up credit support for the economy. The dollar also got a lift from the widening crypto shock, with bitcoin falling back below $16,000 on Monday.

☆ Fed's Daly: Currently expect fed funds rate to top out around 5%
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco leader Mary Daly said on Monday she is still expecting the U.S. central bank to hike rates more and will likely lift its interest rate target to around 5%. While the end state of the central bank’s rate rise campaign is “not set in stone” it remains likely the Fed will get to around 5%, or somewhere between 4.75% and 5.25%, Daly said in an address to the Orange County Business Council in California. The current federal funds rate stands at between 3.75% and 4%. The rate setting Federal Open Market Committee is almost certain to raise that rate when it meets next month. Reporting by Michael S. Derby Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Nov 21 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. World stocks have rebounded strongly, bond yields and the dollar have fallen, and financial conditions eased significantly over the last month as investors bet that the Fed is preparing the ground for the much-vaunted 'pivot'. This deepens the problems that Asian markets and policymakers have been facing all year - historically low exchange rates, FX market intervention, rising inflationary pressures, and raising domestic interest rates into weak growth. Asia's powerhouses Japan and China are loosening policy, of course, and their currencies and FX reserves are taking a hit. But if Fed hawks and dollar bulls set the market tone, they may have to tighten more than they had envisaged.

☆ Premarket stocks: Fed officials crushed investors' hopes this week
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But messaging from Fed officials this week has brought Wall Street back down to earth. Tech layoffs don’t mean impending recessionA series of high-profile layoffs have rattled Big Tech this month. The series of high-profile layoff announcements prompted fears that the labor market was weakening and that a recession could be around the corner. Those fears aren’t unwarranted: The Federal Reserve is actively working to slow economic growth and tighten financial conditions to rebalance the white-hot labor market. “The main problem in the labor market is still that labor demand is too strong, not too weak,” they concluded.

The greenback has been falling in recent weeks as inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary implied that it could soon slow the pace of its interest rate hikes. "We had a short covering euro rally and dollar sell off that's probably run its course now. The euro was last down 0.56% against the dollar at $1.0337 after falling as much as 0.86% earlier in the session. It was last down 0.95% at $1.18 after earlier falling as much as 1.25% in a move that one analyst said was largely driven by sentiment about the dollar. The greenback was last up 0.68% against the Japanese yen on Thursday to 140.4950 after falling earlier in the day.

[1/2] Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 6, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Thursday as investors digested mixed U.S. economic data, while the British pound fell as the UK government unveiled its latest budget update. Yet the dollar climbed on Thursday after U.S. retail sales data for October, released on Wednesday, came in stronger than expected. Traders will also scrutinise speeches from numerous Fed officials on Thursday for hints about rate hikes. It plunged 3.7% on Thursday last week when U.S. consumer inflation data for October came in lower than expected.

☆ Shares and pound splutter as UK dishes out budget gruel
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/3] Pound and Dollar banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken June 13, 2017. Pound and UK Gilt recover from 'mini budget' turmoilOvernight in Asia, grim signals from Micron Technology about excess inventories and sluggish demand sent chipmaker stocks sprawling. Mainland Chinese shares also wobbled, with blue chips there (.CSI300) falling 0.5% having ripped 10% higher this month. Traders will also scrutinise speeches from Fed officials on Thursday for hints about rate hikes. Crude oil steadied in Europe after settling more than a dollar lower overnight, following the resumption of Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and as rising COVID-19 cases in China weighed on sentiment.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationSINGAPORE, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The dollar was little changed on Thursday as investors digested mixed U.S. economic data, while the British pound rose ahead of the government's budget update. Yet the dollar paused on Thursday after U.S. retail sales data for October, released on Wednesday, came in stronger than expected. "Markets have positioned for the Fed to pivot (but) the U.S. retail sales data very much challenges that narrative," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Kim Mundy. Traders will also scrutinise speeches from numerous Fed officials on Thursday for hints about rate hikes. China's yuan weakened 0.36% to 7.126 per dollar as new COVID cases caused concerns that officials could order more lockdowns.

☆ Chip stocks hammered in Asia, dollar firms on hawkish Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Kevin Buckland | Yousef Saba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Chip stocks took a beating on Thursday, sending most Asian share indexes lower, after grim signals from Micron Technology overnight about excess inventories and sluggish demand. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar rebounded after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales suggested the Federal Reserve was unlikely to ease up in its battle with inflation. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) tumbled 2.1%, with its tech stocks (.HSTECH) slipping more than 4%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.3% and South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) dropped 1.1%, each led by declines in heavyweight chip players. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major counterparts - added 0.13% to 106.41, stabilizing after a slide as low as 105.30 on Tuesday following the release of producer price inflation numbers.

The risk-sensitive Aussie tumbled as Hong Kong's Hang Seng led a tech-driven slide in Asian equities. U.S. data overnight showed October retail sales rose 1.3%, compared with economist expectations for 1.0%, a healthy signal but one that dented hopes for a pause in rate increases. "The U.S. economy is driven by the consumer and if the consumer is still spending, it suggests it's going to take inflation longer to ease." Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar slumped 0.4% to $0.6715 as regional equities retreated, and failed to garner support from stronger-than-expected local jobs data. Sterling eased 0.23% to $1.18855, while the yen was more resilient, trading little changed at 139.50 per dollar.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar rebounded after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales suggested the Federal Reserve was unlikely to ease up in its battle with inflation. That fuelled concerns about the economic outlook, with the U.S. Treasury yield curve remaining deeply inverted in Tokyo trading and suggesting that investors are braced for recession. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) tumbled 2.7%, with its tech stocks (.HSTECH) slipping more than 5%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.4% and South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) dropped 1.1%, each led by declines in heavyweight chip players. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major counterparts - added 0.28% to 106.57, rebounding from a slide as low as 105.30 on Tuesday following the release of producer price inflation numbers.

☆ Dollar steadies as U.S. spending points to rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell slightly overnight, in response to the U.S. data, and were steady in morning trade on Thursday. The Japanese yen hovered at 139.25 per dollar, while the Chinese yuan nursed losses at 7.1033 per dollar after China's central bank promised to keep local liquidity ample and to guide commercial loan growth. The Aussie dollar didn't catch much of an immediate boost from stronger-than-expected jobs data. Comments from a number of Fed and other central bank officials will also be closely watched. Indonesia's central bank meets to set policy and a 50 basis point hike is expected.

☆ Asian stocks mixed, dollar finds footing as traders assess Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Asian stocks were mixed on Thursday while the U.S. dollar stabilized and Treasury yields remained depressed as investors tried to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy following stronger-than-expected retail sales data. Renewed expectations the Fed will keep hiking rates have increased concerns about the economic outlook. The U.S. Treasury yield curve remained deeply inverted in Tokyo trading, suggesting investors are bracing for recession. U.S. e-mini stock futures , though, indicated a 0.3% rebound at the reopen following the S&P 500's (.SPX) 0.8% overnight retreat. However, traders still see the terminal rate as close to 5% by next summer from the currency policy rate of 3.75-4%.

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