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☆ China factory activity unexpectedly shrinks in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Ellen Zhang | Ryan Woo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in April, official data showed on Sunday, raising pressure on policymakers seeking to boost an economy struggling for a post-COVID lift-off amid subdued global demand and persistent property weakness. That missed expectations of 51.4 tipped by economists in a Reuters poll and marked the first contraction since December, when the official manufacturing PMI was at 47.0. The world’s second-biggest economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has lagged amid weak global growth. The manufacturing sector, which employs about 18% of China’s workforce, remains under pressure due to slack global demand. The composite PMI, which includes manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, dropped to 54.4 from 57.0.

☆ China factory activity unexpectedly cools in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Ellen Zhang | Ryan Woo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Manufacturing PMI 49.2 in April vs 51.9 in MarchNon-manufacturing PMI 56.4 vs 58.2 in MarchBEIJING, April 30 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in April, official data showed on Sunday, raising pressure on policymakers seeking to boost an economy struggling for a post-COVID lift-off amid subdued global demand and persistent property weakness. That missed expectations of 51.4 tipped by economists in a Reuters poll, and marked the first contraction since December last year, when the official manufacturing PMI was at 47.0. China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has lagged amid weak global growth. The manufacturing sector, which provides jobs to about 18% of those employed nationwide, remains under pressure due to slack global demand. The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, dropped to 54.4 from 57.0.

☆ China PMI factory activity unexpectedly cools in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) declined to 49.2 last month from 51.9 in March, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, below the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in activity. That missed expectations of 51.4 tipped by economists in a Reuters poll and marked the first contraction since December, when the official manufacturing PMI was at 47.0. The world’s second-biggest economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has lagged amid weak global growth. China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in April, according to official data. The composite PMI, which includes manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, dropped to 54.4 from 57.0.

☆ China's factory activity unexpectedly cools in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A worker works on the production line of a textile company in Qingzhou Economic Development Zone, East China's Shandong province on April 27, 2023. China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in April, official data showed on Sunday, raising pressure on policymakers seeking to boost an economy struggling for a post-Covid lift-off amid subdued global demand and persistent property weakness. That missed expectations of 51.4 tipped by economists in a Reuters poll and marked the first contraction since December, when the official manufacturing PMI was at 47.0. The world's second-biggest economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has lagged amid weak global growth. New export orders edged down to 47.6 from 50.4 in March, the PMI showed.

☆ Stock futures are flat after Dow notches best month since January
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. stock futures were flat in overnight trading Sunday after the major averages logged gains for April, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched its best month since January. Futures tied to the Dow dipped 30 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures each inched 0.1% lower. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.69% as Big Tech earnings took center stage. For the month, the Dow gained 2.5% to notch its best monthly stretch since January, while the benchmark index gained 1.5%. "There was definitely a very positive surprise on the big tech earnings," said Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Toggle AI.

☆ A solid start to earnings season will be put to the test in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +14 min

The biggest week of this earnings season showed us that things aren't as bad as many feared. The week ahead of earnings, including several more Club names, should tell us more. The results are always important, but it's the guidance and management commentary we will really hone in on to better understand the path ahead. In Amazon's case, a solid first quarter for its AWS cloud business was overshadowed by management seeing a material slowdown in April. ET: Nonfarm Payrolls Looking back It was the biggest week of this earnings season for the Club as several of our mega-cap holdings and industry bellwethers reported results.

☆ Markets next week have to contend with how aggressive the Fed drumbeat sounds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

"Is Chairman Powell going to say, 'It is likely that we pause now and assess what the economy is going to do?' "The tone on that balance is going to be very critical to how the market is going to move next week." "What is [Powell] going to do? June Fed meeting The betting on Wall Street right now is that, after next week, the Fed will standpat at its next meeting six weeks later, on June 13-14. Beyond Apple, some 161 other companies in the S & P 500 index are scheduled to report latest-quarter results next week.

☆ Retailers bought so much stuff during the pandemic that it's overburdening warehouses — and it may be causing a 'freight recession,' analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Nidhi Pandurangi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Executives at trucking giant JB Hunt recently sounded the alarm about a freight recession. Over-buying during the pandemic is depressing the demand for goods, which is impacting freight and transport. Executives at trucking giant JB Hunt sounded the alarm over a "freight recession" at a first-quarter conference call last week. A freight recession basically means there are fewer trucks delivering goods across America. Notably, the freight recession is not a US-only problem.

The survey's flash services sector PMI rose to 53.7, the highest reading in a year, from 52.6 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI falling to 51.5. Flash PMIIn the euro zone, the bloc's dominant services industry saw already-buoyant demand rise too, more than offsetting a deepening downturn in manufacturing. However, the manufacturing PMI fell to 45.5 from 47.3, its lowest since the coronavirus pandemic was cementing its grip on the world three years ago. "The PMI sheds a positive light on the economic performance in the euro zone, as a pickup in service sector activity is boosting growth," said Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, noting manufacturing weakness remained a concern.

☆ Three investors on how to protect your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Wall Street has been hit with a barrage of complex signals about the economy’s health over the past month. From banking turmoil to weakening jobs data to slowing inflation, and now the start of earnings season, investors have remained largely resilient. So, how should investors protect their portfolios? Investors say there isn’t one asset that Wall Street should pile all their bets on, but there are fundamentals that should underlie their investment strategies. Doug Fincher, portfolio manager at Ionic Capital Management, says investors should brace their portfolios against inflation.

☆ An earnings recession plagues investors' minds as reporting season approaches
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

There may not be a recession yet, but there is certainly an earnings recession. What Treasury yields are saying Treasury yields resumed falling last week in response to the weaker data. Earnings season Speaking of earnings, first quarter earnings season start this week, with earnings for the S & P 500 expected to decline 5.2%, according to Refinitiv. That's an earnings recession. You have to go back to Q1-Q3 of 2020 to see three consecutive quarters of earnings decline.

☆ Bank of America shares 12 charts that show that the economy is about to enter a full-blown recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are growing signs the US economy is about to enter a full-blown recession, said Bank of America. The bank cited worrying signs in manufacturing and the jobs market, and said investors aren't paying attention to the risks. But so far, no recession has materialized as the jobs market and consumer spending have remained fairly resilient. Model is driven by Asian exports, global PMIs, China financial conditions, US yield curve," BofA said. Steepening yield curve often precedes a recessionBank of America"US Treasury 2-year/10-year yield curve flattens and inverts in anticipation of recession.

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market says the S&P 500 has another 45% downside as investors remain blind to signs that a recession is hurtling toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, stock market investors remain bullish, he said. He's been warning of a significant stock market decline since late 2021,"People are ignoring all the lessons of history," Wolfenbarger told Insider on Friday. His bearish outlook stems from how high stock valuations are relative to 10-year Treasury yields. Wolfenbarger also has company in thinking that stock market investors aren't heeding the warnings of a coming downturn. Yet, the stock market doesn't seem to reflect this uncertainty, he said.

☆ US services sector growth slows; price pressures abating
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Despite the pullback in growth in the services sector, Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee noted that "the majority of respondents report a positive outlook on business conditions." The services sector is being supported by consumers switching spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. ISM services PMITRADE DEFICIT WIDENSWhile accommodation and food services businesses reported that "traffic is recovering and nearly flat," they added "we are optimistic about the coming months." With demand cooling, services sector inflation continued to subside, though it remains elevated. Services sector employment growth also moderated.

☆ Japan's March service-sector grows at fastest rate in over nine years - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 5 (Reuters) - Japan's services sector activity at the fastest pace in over nine years in March, a private sector survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting that the post-COVID bounce was gathering steam and providing some offset to a still-weak factory sector. The final au Jibun Bank Japan Services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 55.0 last month, from February's 54.0, marking the quickest rate of expansion since October 2013. The subindexes of new orders and overseas demand grew for a seventh month, rising at the fastest pace since February 2019 and December 2022, respectively. The subindex for employment expanded for a second month and at the fastest pace in ten months, as workloads and business expansion plans increased. The composite PMI, which combines the manufacturing and services figures, grew at the fastest pace since June 2022.

☆ U.S. service sector slows in March; inflation cooling - ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It was the first time since 2009 that all subcomponents of the manufacturing PMI fell below the 50 threshold. The services sector is being supported by consumers switching spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. With demand cooling, services sector inflation continued to subside, though it remains elevated. The services sector is now at the heart of the fight against inflation as services prices tend to be stickier and less responsive to interest rate increases. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid gauge as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.

☆ Futures fall as investors await key economic data amid recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ET, Dow e-minis were down 46 points, or 0.14%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 8.75 points, or 0.21%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 30.5 points, or 0.23%. Weak job openings data and falling factory orders on Tuesday followed soft manufacturing activity data on Monday, sparking fresh concerns about economic outlook and pushing the S&P 500 (.SPX) to snap a four-day winning streak in the prior session. Escalating oil prices following the OPEC+ group's output cuts have also worsened the outlook for inflation, adding to investors' anxiety. Both the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) are on track to notch weekly declines in four in the holiday-shortened week. Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets brush off OPEC as factories stall
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanRelatively calm world markets have brushed off OPEC's latest twist and focussed more squarely on stalled global manufacturing and edgy U.S.-China relations. Crude oil prices held much of Monday's pop higher on the surprise weekend production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. But Brent crude remains below levels seen just before the Silicon Valley Bank bust last month and is still tracking year-on-year declines of 20%. Strikingly, both short and long-term inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury markets , have barely budged since the OPEC news. McCarthy, the third-most-senior U.S. leader after the president and vice president, is due to host a meeting in California on Wednesday with Tsai.

☆ Dollar slides on sluggish US data, Aussie steadies ahead of RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Against the sliding dollar, the British pound and the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose to multi-week highs in early Asia trade on Tuesday. The kiwi rose 0.2% to $0.6310, its highest since mid-February, while the U.S. dollar index was marginally lower at 102.02, having fallen more than 0.5% on Monday. "The closest thing we get to good news in (the) report is that the slowing in the factory sector is pushing prices lower and supply chains are continuing to heal, benefiting from the slack. The RBA will pause policy tightening according to a poll of analysts, although a strong minority still forecast a hike. Data out last week showed Australian inflation slowed to an eight-month low in February, due in part to a sharp retreat in prices for holiday travel and accommodation.

☆ US manufacturing sector weakest in nearly three years in March -ISM
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 last month, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 47.7 in February. It was the fifth straight month that the PMI remained below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. Reports last month also showed orders for capital goods excluding aircraft eking out a small gain in February as did manufacturing output. But it noted that manufacturing depending on bank credit also "tend to have larger firms that other things equal will have an easier time finding alternative sources of capital." The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index fell to 44.3 last month from 47.0 in February.

☆ S&P, Nasdaq futures fall on inflation worries after OPEC+ output cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures mixed: Dow up 0.36%, S&P down 0.10%, Nasdaq down 0.64%April 3 (Reuters) - Futures tracking the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell on Monday as soaring oil prices renewed worries of persistent inflationary pressures, while energy stocks surged at the start of the week. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day, threatening an immediate rise in prices. Oil prices jumped 5.4% on Monday, propelling over 3% gains in energy firms such as Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) and Chevron Corp (CVX.N) in premarket trade. ET, Dow e-minis were up 119 points, or 0.36%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 4 points, or 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 84.5 points, or 0.64%. Remarks by Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook on economic outlook and monetary policy are also expected later on Monday.

☆ Treasury yields climb to begin second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up by around 4 basis points to 3.5318%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond added just over 2 basis points to 3.7092%. The yield on the 2-year note rose by more than 7 basis points to 4.1351%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday morning as the bond market emerged from a wild first quarter. "Investors should follow the markets, not the Federal Reserve for clues on when the central bank's rate hikes will end," said Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at New York-based Treasury Partners. Auctions will be held Monday for $57 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $48 billion of 26-week bills.

☆ Gold dips as stronger dollar dampens appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices slipped on Monday as a sturdy dollar made the greenback-denominated metal less affordable for buyers holding other currencies. FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,962.36 per ounce, as of 0049 GMT. * The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion rises when interest rates are increased to bring down inflation. * Markets see a 48.4% chance of the Fed hiking rates by a quarter point in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. DATA/EVENTS (GMT)0145 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final0750 France S&P Global Mfg PMI0755 Germany S&P Global/BME Mfg PMI0800 EU S&P Global Mfg Final PMI0830 UK S&P GLBL/CIPS Mfg Final PMI1345 US S&P Global Mfg PMI Final1400 US ISM Manufacturing PMIReporting by Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh VenkateshwaranOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: A holiday kickoff to the second quarter, and a US jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( Alden Bentley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Alden Bentley. Asia's data calendar across the rest of the week otherwise looks fairly tame and the main economic event for global markets will be U.S. payrolls data on Friday. So given the number of markets that are closed on, or before, Friday, the week could bring surprises of a pleasant, or not pleasant, variety. But any surprise headlines, be they OPEC or bank related, will have to be digested by thinned markets, which can bring excessive market swings. This week will bring CPI releases from Indonesia on Monday, South Korea on Tuesday and Thailand and the Philippines on Wednesday.

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