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Feb 24 (Reuters) - Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said on Friday that she was keeping to her previous forecast made at the end of last year for the U.S. central bank's interest rate peak as economic data since then has not caused her to change her mind. "I had my funds rate a little bit above the median in that projection, and I haven't really seen much change in my outlook for the economy since that time," Mester said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC. "So I see that we're going to have to bring interest rates above 5%...I do think we need to be somewhat about 5% and hold there for a time in order to get inflation on that sustainable downward path." Mester was speaking before inflation data was published which showed price pressures accelerating once again, causing investors to bet the Fed will raise interest rates at least three more times. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Jane Merriman and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The government inflation report “is another indication that the impulse of inflation and price pressures is still with us. Mester spoke in the wake of the release of government data on incomes, spending and price pressures. “We just need to see all those prices coming back down and we haven't seen that sustainably yet,” Mester said. Since Mester called for a 50 basis point hike, jobs data has been very robust and inflation has been stronger than expected, suggesting her case for larger action remains in place. Mester reiterated in the interview that she still believes the federal funds rate, now at between 4.5% and 4.75%, needs to get above 5% and stay there to bring inflation down.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, shot up 0.6% last month after gaining 0.2% in December. In the 12 months through January, the PCE index accelerated 5.4% after rising 5.3% in December. "This PCE number, which to me is a vital number, clearly suggests that the Fed has more to do. ET, Dow e-minis were down 352 points, or 1.06%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 48.25 points, or 1.2%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 202.5 points, or 1.66%. A string of Fed policymakers including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Fed President Susan Collins are also slated to speak.
A measure the Federal Reserve watches closely to gauge inflation rose more than expected in January, indicating the central bank has more work to do to bring down prices. Including the volatile food and energy components, headline inflation increased 0.6% and 5.4% respectively. Consumer spending also rose more than expected as prices increased, jumping 1.8% for the month vs. the estimate for 1.4%. Food prices increased 0.4%. On an annual basis, food prices rose 11.1%, while energy was up 9.6%.
Morning Bid: War and PCE
  + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith world headlines focussed on first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the inflationary consequences that pounded world markets last year still smoulder. Curiously, the initial energy shock from the Ukraine war is already less of a problem than the change in pricing behaviour that it seeded - especially in services still distorted by the pandemic, in corporate margin building and rising wage settlements. But it's the pickup and stickiness in underlying "core" prices, excluding energy and food, that is irking the central banks and the Federal Reserve most of all. Alongside another tight U.S. weekly jobs report, markets got another glimpse of those price pressures on Thursday. And increasingly buoyed by the still intense geopolitical fallout from a year of the war in Ukraine, the dollar pushed higher yet again.
The latest Fed projection for the so-called terminal rate — the level where the rate hikes stop — was just over 5%. Before this past week, those intraday levels hadn't been seen since November 2022. ET: ISM Services Looking back January's hot reading on core PCE on Friday was the most influential economic number of the past week. In Club earnings this past week, Nvidia (NVDA) was certainly the highlight. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. ET: Jim and Jeff discuss the Club portfolio (Part 1)12:15--1:30 p.m. ET: Jim and Jeff discuss the portfolio (Part 2)2:15-2:45 p.m.
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Hence, interest rates need to continue rising. Despite Fed hawkishness, signs point to a no-landing scenario, which should give investors some comfort. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
New York CNN —There’s a new tussle brewing in the animal kingdom of Wall Street: Hawks vs. Bulls. The question is, will the Fed be able to break through and convince Wall Street to finally give in to market pessimism? “Setting aside what financial market participants expected us to do, I saw a compelling economic case for a 50 basis-point increase,” she said at an event in Florida. Asda told CNN that it was temporarily limiting purchases of some items to three packs per customer. Morrisons told CNN that it had imposed a cap of two packs per customer on the same products.
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Hence, interest rates need to continue rising. Despite Fed hawkishness, signs point to a no-landing scenario, which should give investors some comfort. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Fed minutes show members resolved to keep fighting inflation
  + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Consequently, the Fed approved a 0.25 percentage point rate increase that was the smallest hike since the first of this tightening cycle in March 2022. But the minutes said that the reduced pace came with a high level of concern that inflation was still a threat. A "few" members said they wanted a half-point, or 50 basis point, increase that would show even greater resolve to get inflation down. Since the meeting, Fed officials have emphasized the need to stay vigilant even while expressing optimism that recent inflation data has been encouraging. "Participants observed that the uncertainty associated with their outlooks for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation was high," the minutes said.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard expressed confidence that the central bank can beat inflation and advocated Wednesday for stepping up the pace in the battle. "It has become popular to say, 'Let's slow down and feel our way to where we need to be.' But Bullard said the more aggressive move would be part of a strategy that he thinks ultimately will be successful. "Our risk now is inflation doesn't come down and reaccelerates, and then what do you do? Let's be sharp now, let's get inflation under control in 2023."
US stocks were mixed on Wednesday as the Fed minutes showed the central bank is willing to push ahead with further interest rate hikes. The Fed remains concerned that inflation is too high and needs to be tamed with more tightening. The minutes indicated that the Fed is highly likely to continue with its tightening, and that some Fed members support 50-basis-point rate hikes rather than the 25-basis-point hike that was implemented earlier this month. Over the past week, Fed Presidents James Bullard and Loretta Mester advocated for a return to 50-basis-point rate hikes. Bullard said he wants to see the fed funds rate rise to just below 5.5%, compared to its current level of 4.6%.
US stocks dropped Tuesday as investors fret that the Fed will keep rates elevated. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. The index marked a second weekly loss last week, stung after regional Fed presidents Loretta Mester and James Bullard said more interest rate hikes may be needed to tame still-hot inflation. Minutes from the Fed's meeting in February are due Wednesday and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, is due Friday. Bank of America has also sounded the alarm on investors potentially wiping out the S&P 500's 2023 gain by early March.
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. With each hotter-than-expected inflation report, markets rose. Markets had widely anticipated, and priced in, 25 basis-point interest rate hikes for the Fed's next two meetings. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Bullard's hawkishness, saying she wants higher rate increases. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
A week's worth of surprising economic data sent a pretty strong message to the market: Inflation that is higher than anticipated is likely to translate into higher interest rates as well. "We are listening to the signal from January inflation data, which suggest the disinflation process may be more prolonged than we previously believed," wrote Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. The data surprises began two weeks ago when nonfarm payrolls surged by a stunning 517,000 in January , raising concerns that a resilient labor market could drive wages, and inflation, higher. The consumer price index , a closely watched inflation metric, jumped 0.5% in January, a bit more than expected. Futures pricing points to a peak, or "terminal," rate of 5.23%, according to the August 2023 fed funds futures contract.
James Bullard, president of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, in Moran, Wyoming, U.S., on Thursday, Aug. 22, 2019. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. With each hotter-than-expected inflation report, markets rose. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Bullard's hawkishness, saying she wants higher rate increases. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Morning Bid: When doves cry
  + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The market has succumbed to the Fed and is now pricing U.S. interest rates to stay above 5% for the year. This has pushed benchmark 10-year Treasury yields to their highest since late December, with the dollar at six-week highs. Thursday's report showed goods and services prices increased, raising questions about the goods disinflation narrative, according to strategists from Saxo Markets. UK retail data and French inflation data are on deck and will help investors to gauge the state of inflation in the region. The data comes a day after France's CAC 40 touched a record high while London's FTSE 100 continued its recent run of record highs.
Asia shares skid as rate-hike fears unnerve investors
  + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Tracking Wall Street, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.68% lower and was set for its third straight week of losses. China shares (.SSEC) slipped 0.18% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) fell 0.09%. "The latest data supports the Fed view of needing to continue to raise rates and hold them there higher for longer." The market is now pricing U.S. interest rates to peak at 5.28% in July and remain above 5% till the end of the year. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 4.2 basis points at 4.661%.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Thursday that he pushed for a higher interest rate increase at the last meeting and could see a more aggressive move ahead. The policymaker said he advocated for a half percentage point rate increase at the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 Fed meeting and said he wouldn't rule out pushing for one at the March session. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester also said Thursday she wanted a higher increase than the quarter-point approved by the Federal Open Market Committee. Bullard added that he sees the larger economic trend moving toward disinflation, despite recent high readings for inflation. "In part due to front-loaded Fed policy during 2022, market-based measures of inflation expectations are now relatively low," Bullard said.
Premarket stocks: SpinCos are the new SPACs
  + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The parent company may distribute the new company’s stock to its shareholders, allowing them to own shares in both. These smaller, newly formed companies are still in the process of establishing themselves in the market and often have lower profit margins than their parent company. It costs a lot to borrow these days and investors are looking for high profits and value stocks, writes Goldman. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have added significantly to the cost of government debt. “As we add trillion after trillion to our debt, the problem only gets worse and compounds.
US stocks closed mixed as top Fed officials weighed in on what it will take to rein in inflation. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he supports raising rates in 25 basis-point increments. Elsewhere, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation remains "much too high" and that the central bank should continue raising rates. On Thursday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said delivering another rate increase will "lock in" easing inflation, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she had seen a "compelling economic case" for delivering another half-point hike in the fed funds rate at the previous central bank meeting. For oil, "one major upside risk to prices remains China and its recovery from the transition to living with COVID.
When the Fed met at the start of the month to deliberate on interest rate policy, it moderated the pace of what had been a torrid barrage of rate hikes and lifted its overnight target rate by quarter percentage point, to between 4.5% and 4.75%. The Fed signaled more rate hikes are coming to help lower overly high inflation levels back to the 2% target. Mester, who does not have a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, noted she would have been open to a larger rate rise at the gathering. “It is welcome news to see some moderation in inflation readings since last summer, but the level of inflation matters and it is still too high,” Mester said. This will cool inflation and wage pressures and “as a result, I expect to see good progress on inflation this year,” the official said.
Wall St eyes lower open as producer prices rebound
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A Labor Department report showed producer prices climbed 0.7% in January after a 0.2% fall in the previous month. "You're also seeing the job market still very strong as well, with claims coming in less than expected," Zaccarelli added. ET, Dow e-minis were down 274 points, or 0.8%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 47.5 points, or 1.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 185.75 points, or 1.46%. Traders will also scrutinize remarks from other Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, to assess the central bank's tone on monetary policy. Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
A trader nicknamed "50 Cent" may be placing big bets that the VIX - known as Wall Street's fear index - will surge. That someone may be a trader nicknamed "50 Cent" who has in past positioned themselves to make money off of market volatility by way of consistently buying Cboe Volatility Index options that usually cost about 50 cents. The VIX - known as Wall Street's fear index - gauges the expected volatility of the US stock market. "'50 Cent' is back. Whoever "50 Cent" may be, they're anticipating a surge in the VIX as it currently sits around a 13-month low.
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