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☆ Asian stocks ease, dollar subdued as investors tread with caution
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.16% lower, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) was up 0.07%. China's blue-chip CSI 300 Index (.CSI300) was down 0.16%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) eased 0.22%. Traders are bracing for meetings from central banks in the next few weeks as easing worries over the banking sector brings inflation and monetary policy back into focus. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.039%, with the euro up 0.04% to $1.0958. The yen weakened 0.08% to 134.83 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2432, down 0.05% on the day.

☆ The credit crunch is here and it could cripple the economy. Here's what Larry Summers, Nouriel Roubini and 7 other experts have said on the emerging threat.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Latest bank lending data suggests the credit crunch "has already started," according to Morgan Stanley strategists. Here's a selection of recent warnings on the emerging threat from experts including Larry Summers, David Solomon, Mike Wilson, Nouriel Roubini and Bill Gross. Apollo Asset Management's Jim Zelter told Bloomberg "it's not a credit crunch" but rather a "transition period" as markets face higher debt costs. "That credit crunch is going to make the likelihood of a recession — a hard landing — much greater than before. "Whether this qualifies as a full-blown 'credit crunch' remains to be seen.

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against a basket of its peers, was little changed at 101.96 after climbing 0.27% on Wednesday. "The banking results continue to show that the U.S. bank funding situation is stabilizing," said Bank of Singapore currency strategist Sim Moh Siong. "You have the UK CPI that turned out hotter than expected, at the same time the New Zealand CPI which turned out lower than expected, which are driving the sterling and kiwi," he added. New Zealand's consumer price index (CPI) for the first quarter came in below expectations on Thursday, but remained near historic highs. That followed hotter than expected CPI figures in Britain that boosted bets for a rate hike from the Bank of England in May.

Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) fell 2.5% after the video-streaming pioneer beat analysts' earnings estimates for the first quarter but offered a downbeat forecast. The two-year Treasury yield , most reflective of short-term rate expectations, hit a one-month high of 4.29% and the 10-year yield hit a four-week high as traders scaled back expectations of rate cuts later this year. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York President John Williams are set to speak later in the day. Earnings from regional banks were mixed, with Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG.N) falling 2.4% after its first-quarter results missed estimates. Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) rallied 20.4% after the regional bank posted stronger-than-expected earnings and said its deposits had stabilized after the March banking crisis.

The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.2%, thanks to a broad-based decline in equities around the world. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures , fell between 0.3-0.5%, suggesting a touch of weakness at the opening bell. The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, St Louis Fed President James Bullard said that, far from pausing, the central bank should keep raising interest rates, based on how persistent inflation has proven to be. UK inflation fell to 10.1% in March, from February's 10.4% - above expectations for a decline to 9.8% and the highest in western Europe, according to data on Wednesday.

☆ Stocks slip as focus turns back to Fed and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"With those stresses easing away, markets are now back to focusing on the Fed." A slew of Federal Reserve speakers are in the frame over the rest of this week ahead of the pre-meeting blackout period that begins on the weekend. The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. "Lower rate volatility and reduced expectations for Fed rate hikes should put the broad U.S. dollar in a weaker position," HSBC analysts said in a currency outlook note. This held down real yields, propped up equity multiples, and tightened credit spreads in the face of falling earnings expectations.

☆ Morning Bid: Sterling's inflation test
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookTraders are scaling back bets on U.S. rate cuts, but dialling up expectations for British hikes. On Tuesday, it was bigger-than-expected pay rises that strengthened expectations for the Bank of England to lift rates next month and to continue doing so thereafter. On Wednesday, British inflation data is in focus. On balance, the sheer size of the Bank of England's task of reining in inflation has been supportive for sterling, which hit a 10-month high last week. Implied volatility in the options market suggests traders don't expect sudden changes in the currency's slow grind higher.

☆ Stocks slip as focus falls back on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published later on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. Markets are pricing an 86% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting, and that wasn't swayed terribly much by conflicting outlooks from two non-voting Fed officials on Tuesday. St Louis Fed President James Bullard told Reuters the Fed ought to keep raising rates to subdue persistent inflation. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC he thinks the Fed should hike one more time then pause to consider the next move. The prospect of peak rates has been applying downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

☆ Morning Bid: Crowded bonds unnerved
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

This has some wondering if the recent dash for cash and top-rated bonds has become a bit crowded and how much more tightening central banks have to do. As we move into the weeds of the first-quarter U.S. earnings season, it's been a mixed bag so far. That clearly unnerved UK government bonds - where 10 year yields jumped 10bps - but it also jarred sovereign bonds around the world. Elsewhere, further signs of healing were evident in the global bank funding market. Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) sold $1 billion of additional tier-1 debt, the first major global bank to sell the risky securities since similar bonds issued by Credit Suisse were wiped out last month.

☆ Fed's Williams: Inflation still 'too high,' Fed will act to lower it
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

“Inflation is still too high, and we will use our monetary policy tools to restore price stability,” Williams said in prepared remarks for delivery before a gathering held by the Money Marketeers of New York University. Williams, who also serves as vice-chairman of the rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, did not comment on his personal view of what’s next for monetary policy, but he did note that central bank forecasts released recently flagged the prospect of more monetary policy tightening to help lower inflation. In his remarks, Williams said that the banking sector stress that started last month and has resulted in extensive Fed emergency lending to banks seems to be cooling off. “Conditions in the banking sector have stabilized, and the banking system is sound and resilient,” Williams said. The central banker noted in his speech that while inflation is high it has been cooling.

☆ Futures subdued as investors eye bank earnings, Fed cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.07%, S&P 0.10%, Nasdaq 0.01%April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were largely flat on Monday as investors awaited more bank earnings and views from Federal Reserve policymakers that could shape expectations around when the central bank will pause its monetary policy tightening. Wall Street ended lower on Friday as a barrage of mixed economic data appeared to affirm another Fed interest rate hike in May, dampening investor enthusiasm after a series of big U.S. bank earnings launched the first-quarter reporting season. U.S. central bank officials including New York Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are scheduled to speak later this week. ET (1230 GMT) is expected to show business conditions in New York state improved in April after slumping in the previous month. ET, Dow e-minis were up 24 points, or 0.07%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4.25 points, or 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 1 point, or 0.01%.

☆ Three investors on how to protect your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Wall Street has been hit with a barrage of complex signals about the economy’s health over the past month. From banking turmoil to weakening jobs data to slowing inflation, and now the start of earnings season, investors have remained largely resilient. So, how should investors protect their portfolios? Investors say there isn’t one asset that Wall Street should pile all their bets on, but there are fundamentals that should underlie their investment strategies. Doug Fincher, portfolio manager at Ionic Capital Management, says investors should brace their portfolios against inflation.

☆ Next week's stock market moves hinge on the longer-term outlook for earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Next week's market action could be dictated by how well the latest quarterly reports from corporate America are received. Expectations about the immediate earnings outlook have been down for so long, the actual numbers themselves could look like up to investors. Earnings for all financials in the S & P 500 are actually expected to expand in the first quarter by 4.3%. ET: NAHB Housing Market Index (April) Earnings: Charles Schwab, M & T Bank, State Street, J.B. Hunt Transport Tuesday 8:30 a.m. ET: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook Earnings: AT & T, American Express, D.R.

SINGAPORE/LONDON, April 12 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday with investors expecting U.S. inflation data out later in the day to hold some clues on how soon U.S. interest rates will peak. The U.S. inflation data for March is forecast to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Inflation data "could be the difference between a 25bp hike or pause at the Fed's next meeting in May," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, adding that money markets could "quickly revert to reprice a policy pause" if the inflation data comes in softer than expected. A raft of Fed speakers on Tuesday offered little guidance on how much further U.S. interest rates would rise. New York Fed President John Williams said it depended on incoming data.

☆ Dollar slips ahead of US inflation data, still hits month high against yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday against most major currencies, with the exception of the yen, with investors expecting U.S. inflation data out later in the global day to hold some clue on how soon U.S. interest rates will peak. The U.S. inflation data for March is forecast to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%, according to a Reuters poll of economists. A raft of Fed speakers on Tuesday offered little guidance on how much further U.S. interest rates would rise. New York Fed President John Williams said it depended on incoming data. Against the yen , the dollar rose to a nearly one-month high of 134.045, a reflection of the stark contrast between the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle and the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) ultra-loose policy.

☆ Dollar dips ahead of key US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the U.S. central bank should be patient about raising interest rates in the face of recent banking sector stress.

☆ Dollar dips ahead of key U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Five, ten, twenty, fifty and one hundred dollar bills spread outThe U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. "Powell has said numerous times he wants to see a downtrend in underlying inflation, but the data's not providing that yet. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near.

☆ Gold gains as traders gear up for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices gained on Wednesday as investors keenly await key U.S. inflation data for signs of how close interest rates are to peaking. Gold could continue to drift higher "as early birds place their bets on a soft inflation report," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "A soft inflation print could send gold prices above $2,032 to mark a fresh YTD high, given the inverted yield curve, talks of soft growth and rise of geopolitical tensions across parts of Asia." Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker on Tuesday said he feels the Fed may soon be done raising rates, while New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed's policy path will depend on incoming data. A "weaker U.S. dollar and returning investment flows have been holding (gold) prices," ANZ said in a note.

Deposits have fled small banks at a record pace, the availability of credit for small businesses is deteriorating rapidly, and these firms are increasingly reluctant to hire workers or expand. The relationship between these thousands of banks and millions of small businesses runs deep, and is critical to the health of the economy at large. And so is wider GDP, when you bear in mind that small businesses account for around 40% of all jobs. Small banks will probably tighten credit standards further, limiting a key source of funding for small businesses - many of which are riskier borrowers and key customers for these banks. "Because small banks are likely to tighten credit more aggressively and small businesses disproportionately borrow from them, the hit to lending to small businesses will likely be larger," they wrote on Monday.

☆ Gold gains as traders gear up for US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies All eyes on CPI data due at 1230 GMTA soft inflation print could send gold above $2,032 - analystApril 12 (Reuters) - Gold prices gained on Wednesday as investors keenly await key U.S. inflation data for signs of how close interest rates are to peaking. Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but rising interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Gold could continue to drift higher "as early birds place their bets on a soft inflation report," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "A soft inflation print could send gold prices above $2,032 to mark a fresh YTD high, given the inverted yield curve, talks of soft growth and rise of geopolitical tensions across parts of Asia." A "weaker U.S. dollar and returning investment flows have been holding (gold) prices, ANZ said in a note.

☆ Asia markets mostly rise ahead of U.S. inflation report, bank earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Sydney Harbour taking in the Harbour Bridge, Opera House and ferries at sunrise during the COVID-19 pandemic on April 20, 2020 in Sydney, Australia. Markets in the Asia-Pacific mostly rose on Wednesday as investors await key U.S. inflation data that will determine the Federal Reserve's path forward in its tightening cycle. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a 6% year-over-year increase in the U.S. consumer price index. New York Fed President John Williams emphasized in an interview with Yahoo Finance overnight that the central bank will remain "data dependent." In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% and the Topix gained 0.6% as traders further digested Japan's producer price index and machinery orders report.

☆ World stocks hope for Fed pause, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gold climbed back up above the key $2,000 per ounce level as the dollar came off Monday's peak, while oil prices rose despite Chinese inflation data pointing to persistently weak demand. Investors are eagerly awaiting U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The dollar index fell 0.244%, with the euro up 0.41% to $1.0904 and the yen weakening 0.12% at 133.78 per dollar.

Summary Dip in China consumer inflation points to weak demandU.S. inflation report due on WednesdayComing up: API data on US crude stocks at 4:30 p.m. Brent crude futures settled up $1.43, or 1.7%, to $85.61 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose $1.79, or 2.2%, to $81.53 a barrel. read moreA U.S. inflation report to be released on Wednesday is expected to help investors gauge the near-term trajectory for interest rates. OPEC output will fall by 500,000 bpd in 2023, then rise by 1 million bpd in 2024, after the group's output agreement expires, the Energy Information Administration forecast on Tuesday.

☆ Dollar dips ahead of inflation data due Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Tuesday as investors waited on inflation data for further signs of whether price pressures are ebbing and what it means for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Consumer price data on Wednesday is expected to show headline inflation rose by 0.2% in March, while core inflation rose 0.4%. (USCPI=ECI), (USCPF=ECI)"A lot of traders are focused on this inflation data," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. Strong jobs data for March have added to expectations that the U.S. central bank will complete one more rate hike. European bond yields rose sharply on Tuesday, catching up after the break.

☆ Gold advances on softer dollar as traders await US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,012.30. Traders are now focussing on the U.S. consumer price data due Wednesday for more clarity on the path of rates heading into the Fed's May policy meeting. The opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion rises when interest rates are increased to bring down inflation. "Near-term, there are also bearish technical setups for a corrective move lower" in gold prices, OCBC's Wong added. Data on Tuesday showed top bullion consumer China's March consumer inflation hit the slowest pace since September 2021 and suggested demand weakness persisted amid an uneven economic recovery.

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