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☆ The Fed probably won't be delivering any interest rate cuts this summer
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesInvestors likely will have to sweat out a summer during which it looks increasingly improbable that the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates. A batch of stronger-than-expected economic data coupled with fresh commentary from policymakers is pointing away from any near-term policy easing. "The market takes every bit of data and translates it to how the Fed sees it. So if the Fed is data dependent, the market is probably more data dependent." Put it together, and there's not much reason for the Fed to be easing policy here.

Persons: Michael M, Quincy Krosby, Christopher Waller, there's, Michael Gapen, BofA, Gapen Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, LPL, Fed, Bank of America Locations: New York City

☆ Treasury yields higher on positive economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

The 10-year Treasury yield was higher at 4.478%, while the 2-year Treasury yield increased to 4.9375%. U.S. Treasury yields rose Friday on the back of better-than-expected economic data. Services and manufacturing gauges for May both were higher than expected and showed expansion in both sectors, according to the purchasing managers' index from S&P Global released Thursday. Minutes from the April 30 to May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday pointed to uncertainty from policymakers about when it would be time to ease. — CNBC's Hakyung Kim and Jeff Cox contributed to this article.

Persons: CNBC's Hakyung Kim, Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Services, Global, Federal, Market

☆ Auto insurance rates are jumping the most since the 1970s, but there could be relief soon
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Rows of new Tesla cars are seen in a holding area near a customer collection point on April 15, 2024 in London, England. Soaring auto insurance costs have been a principle driver behind inflation over the past year, but there could be relief on the way, according to Bank of America. "The turbocharged increases in motor vehicle insurance premiums are a response to underwriting losses in the industry. Insurers saw losses," BofA economist Stephen Juneau said in a note. Also, repair and maintenance services costs were flat in April though still up 7.6% from a year ago.

Persons: Stephen Juneau Organizations: Soaring, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics Locations: London, England, Juneau

☆ Federal Reserve minutes indicate worries over lack of progress on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., May 1, 2024. Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions. Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease. The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024. The Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, and all of the indicators showed price increases running well ahead of that mark.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, FOMC, Stocks Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, University of Michigan, New York Fed Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Morgan Stanley's Slimmon names tech stocks to buy at a 'reasonable price'
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Andrew Slimmon has been consistently bullish on stocks — even during periods of volatility. Given the "sky high" inflation numbers in 2022 and 2023, Slimmon said, it's "only natural" that inflation would be on a downward trajectory as the year-on-year comparisons were "relatively easy." Last week, the April consumer price index report in the U.S. showed that inflation eased slightly for the month. "The problem is, as we get into May number, June numbers, July numbers of last year, those CPI numbers really came down quite a bit," Slimmon told CNBC's " Street Signs Asia. " "When you think about Netflix, Amazon, you're talking about two [companies] that give a lot of value to their customers for a relatively reasonable price," Slimmon said.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Andrew Slimmon, it's, Slimmon, CNBC's, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Morgan Stanley Investment, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Netflix, United Rentals, Waste Management Locations: U.S

☆ Fed Governor Waller wants 'several months' of good inflation data before lowering rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, citing a string of data showing that inflation appears to be easing, said Tuesday that he does not think further interest rate increases will be necessary. Yet Waller said he's not ready to back interest rate cuts. Markets have had to recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy this year. In the early months, futures markets traders priced in at least six rate cuts this year starting in March.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, he's Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Federal, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Market, Labor Department Locations: Washington ,, Washington

☆ 'Black Swan' author Taleb says people should worry about Middle East events but not investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

People should pay attention to the events in the Middle East from a humanitarian perspective but disregard them as investors, according to author Nassim Taleb. "I would say to investors to basically ignore what's going on in the Middle East and as an individual to worry," the "Black Swan" author told CNBC's Kelly Evans during an interview Monday on "The Exchange." "The connection between the markets and these events is completely unpredictable, even more unpredictable than the events themselves." In addition to his market work, Taleb is a Lebanese American essayist whose seminal work, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," warns against trying to predict the unpredictable. He largely has advocated an approach to investing that hedges against unusual events such as the financial crisis of 2008-09.

Persons: Nassim Taleb, CNBC's Kelly Evans, Taleb, Ebrahim Raisi, You've Organizations: Universa Investments, Dow Jones, JPMorgan Chase Locations: Lebanese American, Israel

☆ Soaring debt and deficits causing worry about threats to the economy and markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The federal IOU is now at $34.5 trillion, or about $11 trillion higher than where it stood in March 2020. Concern over such eye-popping numbers had been largely confined to partisan rancor on Capitol Hill as well as from watchdogs like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Uncharted territory for debt and deficitsIndeed, the CBO numbers are ominous, as they outline the likely path of debt and deficits. Surging budget deficits have been driving the debt, and the CBO only expects that to get worse. "The huge obvious problem is that the U.S. federal debt is now on a completely unsustainable long-term trajectory," analysts at Wolfe Research said in a recent note.

Persons: Greenlee Beal, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, hasn't, Wolfe Organizations: U.S, Capitol, Wall, CBO, Union, JPMorgan Chase, Sky News, Bridgewater Associates, Financial Times, Treasury Department, Wolfe Research, U.S ., Federal Reserve Locations: Washington , U.S, Washington, Amsterdam, London, America, U.S

☆ Here's what has driven the Dow rally to 40,000, and why it could keep going
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on May 16, 2024. Passing major milestones like the 40,000 barrier the Dow Jones Industrial Average eclipsed this week makes for a nice headline, but market experts don't take much else from the move. Forty thousand "is a great milestone, but [at the] end of the day there isn't much difference between 39,999 and 40k," said Ryan Detrick, chief market market strategist at Carson Group. But the "Waiting for Godot" economic retrenchment never happened, despite wobbly corporate profits and other headwinds. Those factors outweighed queasiness over where the Federal Reserve was headed with monetary policy amid inflation that has proved surprisingly sticky.

Persons: Ryan Detrick Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Carson Group, Wall Street, Federal

☆ Some data in the market-moving CPI report was released early by the Labor Department
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Information about Wednesday's critical consumer price index release circulated early on the Bureau of Labor Statistics website, according to a statement from the agency. The statement provided few details but noted that the Labor Department agency has notified the Office of Management and Budget and the department's Office of the Inspector General. There was no other information provided concerning the early release of the CPI, a key inflation indicator that showed another increase in April, though slightly less than what the Wall Street consensus had anticipated. ET release, though there was little unusual activity in the half-hour prior, indicating that the early release was not widely seen and did not materially impact trading. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, ran at a 0.3% rate monthly rate and 3.6% annually, the lowest since April 2022.

Persons: Wednesday's, Peter Boockvar, Trump, Boockvar, Stocks Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Labor Department, Management, Budget, CPI, Bleakley Locations: Washington

☆ Inflation eases in April with consumer prices rising 3.4% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast. The core 12-month inflation reading was the lowest since April 2021. Futures traders raised the implied probability that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in September. That figure is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, suggesting consumers did not keep up with the pace of price increases.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services, Markets, Treasury, Federal Reserve

☆ Bitcoin is having its best day since March following cooler April inflation reading
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin is likely to remain rangebound and trade along with macro data points, until we see a clearer path for rate cut." Bitcoin jumped with stocks on Wednesday after the April consumer price index showed inflation eased from the previous month. The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Earlier this week, bitcoin also sat out a two-day revival of the meme stock craze. With Wednesday's gain, bitcoin is now up 7% for the week — its best week since March 29 — and on pace to break a six-week slide.

Persons: Owen Lau, Oppenheimer, bitcoin, Bitcoin, Dow Jones, Leena ElDeeb, ElDeeb, Jeff Cox, Nick Wells Organizations: CNBC, Metrics, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Investors

☆ Here's everything to expect from Wednesday's key report on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"I expect that inflation will move back down on a monthly basis to levels that were more like the lower readings we were having last year," he told attendees at a banking conference. So we're just going to have to see where the inflation data fall out." The index, a proxy for wholesale prices, accelerated 2.2% on an annual basis, the highest reading in a year. "This will be the most important read of the month [excluding nonfarm payrolls] as inflation continues to defy expectations," said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. Even if the report comes in around consensus expectations, it will be "inadequate progress for the Fed to consider a cut until September," he added.

Persons: Frederic J, Brown, Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, we're, Dan North Organizations: AFP, Getty, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Allianz Trade North, Fed Locations: Rosemead , California, Amsterdam, Allianz Trade North America

☆ Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak live to bankers group in Amsterdam
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday to the annual general meeting of the Foreign Bankers' Association in Amsterdam. Policymakers remain concerned that inflation is not showing enough evidence that it is moving toward the Fed's 2% annual target. Recent data points have shown prices both at the consumer and wholesale levels running hotter than expected while consumer sentiment also has shown elevated expectations over the short term. Markets still expect the Fed to lower rates later this year, and Powell said following the FOMC meeting that he thinks it unlikely that rates will increase from here.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Read Organizations: Foreign Bankers ' Association in, Market, CNBC, YouTube Locations: Foreign Bankers ' Association in Amsterdam

☆ Powell says inflation has been higher than thought and expects rates to hold steady
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Tuesday that inflation is falling more slowly than expected and will keep the central bank on hold for an extended period. But these [inflation readings] were higher than I think anybody expected," Powell said. While he expects inflation to come down through the year, he noted that hasn't happened so far. "I do think it's really a question of keeping policy at the current rate for longer than had been thought," he said. "I think it's more likely that we'll be at a place where we hold the policy rate where it is."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, Powell Organizations: Treasury Department, Federal, Foreign Bankers ' Association in Locations: Washington , DC, Foreign Bankers ' Association in Amsterdam

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in April, more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wholesale prices jumped more than expected in April, putting up another potential roadblock to interest rate cuts anytime soon. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core PPI also increased 0.5% compared to the 0.2% Dow Jones estimate. On a year-over-year basis, wholesale inflation rose 2.2%, also the highest in a year. Core PPI inflation was at 2.4%, the biggest annual move since August 2023. Services prices boosted the wholesale inflation reading, rising 0.6% and accounting for about three-quarters of the headline gain, while the final demand goods index increased 0.4%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Reuters . Stock, BLS, Federal Reserve, Commerce, York

☆ Inflation outlook rises, fueled by expected increases for housing costs, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

On a one-year basis, the expectation increased to 3.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from March and the highest since November 2023. However, expected increases in housing prices are particularly troublesome for policymakers who expected shelter costs to ease this year. Along with expected higher home costs, respondents see rents rising 9.1%, up 0.4 percentage point from the prior month. They expect food prices to increase 5.3% (up 0.2 percentage point from a month ago), gasoline to rise 4.8% (up 0.3 percentage point); and college education to increase by 9%, a 2.5 percentage point surge. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the all-items CPI to show a 3.4% increase for April from the prior year, down 0.1 percentage point from March.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Dow Jones Organizations: Costco, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Labor Locations: Novato , California, New, New York

☆ Asia markets largely lower as investors assess China inflation data, await Japan GDP print
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve regional presidents Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Austan Goolsbee of Chicago said they are taking a patient approach to monetary policy as they weigh surprisingly strong inflation data this year. Let's get a lot more data to see if this inflation is going to continue or if it's stalling," Kashkari said during a joint live interview on CNBC. "We are all committed to getting inflation back" to the Fed's 2% goal. Goolsbee noted the rapid disinflation that occurred in 2023 and said he is hopeful that can resume following the sticky upward trend seen so far this year. Or did we kind of use up all of our good luck and this bump of the beginning of the year is actually a sign of overheating?"

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Goolsbee, Jeff Cox Organizations: Reserve, CNBC Locations: Minneapolis, Chicago

☆ Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge, closely watched survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer sentiment slumped as inflation expectations rose, despite otherwise strong signals in the economy, according to a closely watched survey released Friday. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment index for May posted an initial reading of 67.4 for the month, down from 77.2 in April and well off the Dow Jones consensus call for 76. Along with the downbeat sentiment measure, the outlook for inflation across the one- and five-year horizons increased. The inflation readings represent the biggest pitfall for policymakers as the Federal Reserve contemplates the near-term path of monetary policy. The next important data point for inflation comes Wednesday when the Labor Department releases its consumer price index report for April.

Persons: Dow Jones, Joanne Hsu, Paul Ashworth, Jeffrey Roach, it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: The University of Michigan Survey, Dow, North, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, LPL, Fed, Labor Department Locations: North America, Michigan

"The Fed is the central bank most able to chart its own course," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a client note Wednesday. It was the first time the Riksbank had cut since 2016 and takes its main policy rate down to 3.75%. The Riksbank's move was the second central bank cut of the year, as the Swiss National Bank reduced its key rate a quarter point in March in what was seen as a surprise action. Reductions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank are expected to come next, possibly within a month. "With the exception of Japan, developed markets are embarking on a program of rate cuts," Hollenhorst said.

Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, BOE, Mark, Bailey, Citi's Hollenhorst, Christine Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Lagarde, Hollenhorst Organizations: U.S . Federal, Citigroup, Citi, Sweden's, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ Stanley Druckenmiller gives Biden's economic policies an 'F', blames the Fed for reigniting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Reckless government spending enabled by the Federal Reserve is hurting average Americans and endangering President Joe Biden's re-election chances, billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said Tuesday. Everybody seems to get it but Yellen, who just keeps spending and spending," Druckenmiller said. Druckenmiller's comments come with the Fed still trying to bring inflation down, as policymakers have dashed investors' hopes for aggressive interest rate cuts this year. Getting markets enthused about rate reductions was a mistake because it set financial conditions "on fire," he said. Inflation was coming down, financial conditions were tightening," he said.

Persons: Joe Biden's, Stanley Druckenmiller, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Druckenmiller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Duquesne Family Office, Fed

☆ Renters' hopes of being able to buy a home have fallen to a record low, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The share of renters as of February who possess hopes of "residential mobility," or the belief from renters that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4% in the central bank's annual housing survey for 2024. Pessimism about future prospects comes amid a confluence of factors conspiring against the likelihood of renters being able to transition to home ownership. Moreover, mortgage rates have remained high by historical standards. Survey respondents expect housing prices to increase 5.1% over the next year, nearly double the 2.6% expected rate in February 2023 and above the pre-pandemic mean of 4.2%. Despite prospects for the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of 2024, respondents think mortgage rates are only going to go higher.

Persons: Freddie Mac, There's Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, National Association of Realtors, Fed, Federal, Market Locations: Manhattan, New York City, New

☆ U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected, while unemployment rose to 3.9%
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Signage at a job fair at Brunswick Community College in Bolivia, North Carolina, US, on Thursday, April 11, 2024. The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in April while the unemployment rate rose, reversing a trend of robust job growth that had kept the Federal Reserve cautious as it looks for signals on when it can start cutting interest rates. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold steady at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from the previous month and 3.9% from a year ago, both below consensus estimates and an encouraging sign for inflation. The jobless rate tied for the highest level since January 2022.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Brunswick Community College, Reserve, Dow Locations: Bolivia , North Carolina, U.S

☆ Here's what to expect from the April jobs report on Friday
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesHiring likely continued at a brisk pace in April as investors look for any cracks in the labor market that could sway the Federal Reserve. If that top-line number is accurate, it actually would reflect a small step back from the average 276,000 jobs a month created so far in 2024. April's jobs market featured more strength in health care and leisure and hospitality, Glaser added. Beating expectationsIndeed, the labor market has been full of surprises this year, topping Wall Street estimates at a time when many economists expected hiring to have slowed down. "The Goldilocks scenario is an unemployment rate rise with a participation rate rise," Matus said.

Persons: Allison Joyce, Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Amy Glaser, resiliency, Glaser, we've, Drew Matus, Matus, Jerome Powell Organizations: Brunswick Community College, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, MetLife Investment Management, of Labor Locations: Bolivia , North Carolina

☆ Wall Street is confused and divided over how many times the Fed will cut rates this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street reacted Thursday to this week's Fed meeting, with forecasts scattered across a range of outcomes for where monetary policy heads next. Most economists for the biggest forecasting firms expect the central bank to lower benchmark interest rates sometime later this year. Goldman left in place its call for two rate cuts this year of a quarter percentage point each, with one in July and the other in November. "If inflation comes in stronger than in our baseline, we would expect the first rate cut to be postponed to December," he wrote. For 2025, we continue to expect four rate cuts."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Powell, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Marc Giannoni, Michael Gapen, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Futures, Group, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America

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