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The 31-year market veteran has achieved enviable results since the start of 2005 while running the BNY Mellon Dynamic Value Fund (DAGVX) alongside co-manager Brian Ferguson. How to invest — and common mistakes to avoidLike all value fund managers, Bailer refuses to overpay for stocks — regardless of how enticing their businesses look. "It's a philosophy that's based on looking for stocks with great valuations, but not stopping with great valuations," Bailer said. Companies in the BNY Mellon Dynamic Value Fund must have both quality fundamentals and improving business momentum, Bailer said. The six largest stocks in the BNY Mellon Dynamic Value Fund were in one of two sectors, as of September 30: financials and healthcare.
Persons: John Bailer, Brian Ferguson, it's, Bailer, we've, headwinds, they've, he's, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Charlie Munger Organizations: Value Fund, Companies, Value, Firms, Berkshire, JPMorgan Locations: Berkshire
Stocks have rallied this week as optimism builds about earnings and interest rates. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets see the gains continuing through year-end. US stocks can continue their winning streak through the end of 2023, according to BMO Capital Markets. As expected, the Federal Reserve declined to raise interest rates at its November 1 meeting. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that higher long-term interest rates set by the market made another hike unnecessary, as Bill Adams, Comerica Bank's economy chief, recently noted.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, Comerica
Home values have held up this year despite historically high mortgage rates, but a new report from Realtor.com suggests that property prices could fall under pressure in the coming months. The firm said that price growth was flat — even as mortgage rates rose to a 23-year-high. Higher borrowing costs dampened demand, though it's possible homebuyers were worried that mortgage rates would soar even higher and wanted to buy before that could happen. Limited supply kept property prices afloat, as Realtor.com found that inventory fell 2% from October 2022. 13 cities where sellers are cutting pricesWhile listing prices are falling across the nation, the trend is especially noticeable in the South and Midwest.
Persons: Danielle Hale, Realtor.com, Hale, it's Locations: West, Midwest, Antonio , Texas, San Jose , California, Memphis , Tennessee, Dallas , Texas, Miami , Florida, South
The S&P 500 is down 7% since the start of September and briefly entered correction territory from its summer high last week. However, strategists say these threats are mostly priced into stocks, but higher earnings aren't. After three straight quarters of contracting profits, both BofA and UBS expect earnings to grow at least 3% year-over-year in Q3. "Within the context of our expectations for a continued choppy backdrop, we are incrementally more positive," Lerner wrote in a late October note. Truist's more constructive view on equities is based on strong results so far in Q3, Lerner wrote.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Savita Subramanian, Marcelli, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, Keith Lerner, Lerner, it's, Truist, Mark Haefele Organizations: Bank of America, UBS, Bank of America's, Equity, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Israel, Oppenheimer Asset Management Locations: Israel, Ukraine, Truist, Real, Charlotte
His foreign-focused, large-cap growth fund is in the top 9% of its category in 2023 with a 4.8% gain compared to a 0.5% loss for its index, according to Morningstar. "And so we don't recalibrate the portfolio much year in, year out or rebalance it for different macro outlooks." Target top-of-the-line stocks, but pay a fair priceUnlike many other managers, Erickson only allows a few dozen stocks in his fund. 8 top investments to make nowMany US-based investors avoid international stocks entirely since the prevailing narrative is that the group is risky, given its heightened exposure to geopolitical conflict. International stocks in four sectors look especially promising right now, Erickson said: consumer discretionary, consumer staples, healthcare, and information technology.
Persons: Elias Erickson, he's, Morningstar, Erickson, We're, It's, there's Organizations: Companies, SAP, Mastercard Locations: New York
Media analysts widely expect the league to select at least three distributors for its next media rights deal after the current setup expires in 2025. Comcast's NBCUniversal could be a frontrunner for a spot in the NBA's new media deal alongside Amazon, Nispel said. NBA players could be poised to earn sky-high paydaysThe NBA's last media deal — the $24 billion contract it struck in 2014 — was nearly triple the value of its previous pact. The pressure is now on the NBA to deliver a media deal that satisfies teams, athletes, and fans. Still, Macquarie media analyst Tim Nollen is optimistic about the size of the NBA's next media rights deal.
Persons: Jessica Reif Ehrlich, disruptors, Brandon Nispel, Nispel, , Shirin Malkani, who's, Perkins, Leron Rogers, that's, Mark Patricof, Tim Nollen, Nollen, Reif Ehrlich, Ehrlich Organizations: NBA, Media, ESPN, Warner Bros, TNT, Disney, Apple, NBC, Comcast, Wall Street, Bank of America, NFL, MLB, NHL, KeyBanc Capital, Amazon, Flagship, ABC, Prime, Industry, Patricof, Macquarie, Diamond Sports
"Based upon the economic data that I've seen and what you read and hear about, I do not expect there to be a recession," Pounardjian said in a recent interview with Insider. And what happens, of course — there's not a recession," Pounardjian said. 8 ways to bet on strong consumer spendingWhile many of his fellow portfolio managers ditched stocks, Pounardjian stayed calm last year and kept his clients' money in markets. "The baby gets thrown out with the bathwater, and the market shoots first and asks questions later," Pounardjian said of consumer stocks. Below are eight stocks in the consumer staples sector that are held by Pounardjian, his clients, or both.
Persons: Razmig Pounardjian, Pounardjian, We've, There's, it's, Derek Thompson Organizations: Bulls, Carnegie Investment, The
Rent is rising at a slower pace in the US and is even declining outright in some markets. Here are two dozen US cities where rent was at least 5% lower this month compared to October 2022. Rent growth continues to decline across the country, and in dozens of cities, apartments are cheaper now than they were last year. The one-bedroom unit's month-over-month drop was the largest of 2023, Zumper researchers noted. Only a quarter of the nation's 100 largest markets saw one-bedroom prices rise from the prior month compared to 59 that fell and 16 that were flat.
Persons: they've Locations: Zumper
Growth will wilt under the pressure of perpetually high interest rates, Chiavarone said, though he added that rolling recessions across industries are more likely than a sudden, 2008-style downturn. Higher-for-longer interest rates are the biggest threat to the US economy, Chiavarone said. Goldman SachsEighteen months of tightening financial conditions will have a profound impact on the economy, Chiavarone said. The multi-asset solutions head is watching how corporations respond next year when they're forced to refinance debt at much higher rates. Since they have plenty of cash on hand, these companies aren't reliant on external financing and can avoid exposure to lofty interest rates.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Steve Chiavarone, Hermes, Chiavarone, it's, they're Organizations: Federated Hermes, Treasury, Federated, Federal, Fed, Companies, Consumer, Vanguard Consumer, ETF, Healthcare, Utilities, Vanguard Utilities
Rent is steadily sliding in the US, but great deals on apartments are still few and far between. A new report from Realtor.com revealed that rent growth was negative for the fifth straight month in September. That problem is slowly getting addressed as 445,000 new multi-family units come online, though they're selling very quickly. Nearly 70% of new affordable apartments got filled within three months of completion in the second quarter compared to a 57.2% rate for more expensive units, Realtor.com found. The trend was pronounced across all the four major US regions, though less pricey Midwest markets had the most dramatic rise in so-called absorption rates of new rental units.
Persons: Realtor.com, Realtor.com's Jiayi Xu, Danielle Hale, Xu, Hale, shouldn't Organizations: shouldn't Locations: Midwest, Austin , Texas, California, San Francisco, Los Angeles
"We continue to believe this bull market is alive and well," wrote Brian Belski, the chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, in an October 18 note. Just over a year ago, the S&P 500 snapped out of a 25% downturn that began in early 2022. "While this one-year gain is certainly not impressive by bull market standards, we believe it is notable since many entered the year prognosticating doom-and-gloom for US stocks," Belski wrote. Don't expect a second-year slump for stocksAll eyes are now on the S&P 500 as it enters the second year of a bull market. BMO Capital Markets22 buy-rated stocks to target nowStock-picking will be increasingly important if the S&P 500 falls under pressure, in BMO's view.
Persons: Brian Belski, Belski Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, BMO Capital, BMO Locations: Montreal
Even the market's most serious risks likely won't derail the economy, according to the brain trust at $1.3 trillion Ameriprise Financial. The S&P 500 should score a mid- to high-single-digit gain next year, Saglimbene told Insider, if earnings grow as expected. So there's some risk that valuations are going to have to come in, and that path for interest rates is very important." Popular small-cap ETFs include the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) and the Schwab US Small-Cap ETF (SCHA) while the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund ETF (VGK) and WisdomTree Europe Small-Cap Dividend ETF (DFE) also might fit with Ameriprise's projections. "At the same time, we'll have yields that are at some of the highest levels we've seen since the financial crisis.
Persons: Russell Price, Price, he's, Ameriprise's Anthony Saglimbene, Justin Burgin, Saglimbene, Burgin, There's, we've, Russell, Ameriprise, weren't Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Saglimbene, Schwab, Vanguard, Index Fund, Fed Locations: Israel, Europe
Investors shouldn't be scared off by slower economic growth caused by higher-for-longer interest rates and inflation, according to JPMorgan Asset Management (JPMAM). For reference, JPMAM called for forward long-term returns of 4.3% in 2021. The firm added that productivity gains from AI will likely add a tenth of a percentage point to global growth in the next decade. The long-awaited reversal for international stocks won't happen overnight, JPMAM strategists said. The firm is highly optimistic about the asset class after its brutal multi-year selloff and expects 4.6% and 5.1% long-term returns for those groups, respectively.
Persons: it's, JPMAM, David Kelly, Kelly, Monica Issar, Grace Koo, , they're, Bob Michele, who's, he's, Bonds, REITs Organizations: Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, US, JPMorgan, Management, Fed, JPMorgan Asset Management, Investors Locations: Europe, Australasia, Real
Investors took note and scrambled to get exposure to AI stocks, many of which are among this year's top performers. Top investment firms like Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS told clients this summer that AI is worth the hype. 11 high-upside AI stocks with dividendsThere's no shortage of ideas about how to profit from AI, as Insider has noted throughout 2023. Bank of America recently put together a list of 164 buy-rated stocks across industries that are tied to AI. Below are those 11 high-upside, stable-dividend stocks with AI exposure and a buy rating from Bank of America along with the ticker, market capitalization, previous close, sector, industry, and country for each.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Alkesh Shah, Shah Organizations: Bank of America, UBS, Robotics, Intelligence, Technology, US
Despite a recent hiccup, growth stocks are in style as concerns about the US economy persist. Growth stocks may generate earnings quickly, but that doesn't mean stock-pickers should rush to sell them — even after letdowns like a disappointing quarter. Every stock in the 52-year-old growth fund has tailwinds like sustainable earnings growth and defendable competitive advantages, Humphrey said. Valuation is an afterthought for some growth managers, but not those on Humphrey's team. Along with Meta Platforms (META), the USAA Victory Growth Fund's top holdings include streaming media titan Netflix (NFLX) and communications conglomerate Alphabet (GOOGL).
Persons: It's, Lance Humphrey, Humphrey Organizations: Growth, Victory Capital Management, Companies, Federal Reserve, Meta, Netflix, Biotech, Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Aspiring homebuyers won't like what Goldman Sachs has to say about the housing market. Home prices will likely end this year up 1.8% before accelerating by 3.5% in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs' latest projections. By contrast, some cities in the West and Southwest saw prices plunge after soaring significantly during the pandemic. Ten of these metropolitan areas saw outsized property price growth while the other half saw prices decline from 2022. Along with each city is its year-over-year growth, total and annualized price growth since 2000, and median price.
Persons: homebuyers, Goldman Sachs, Roger Ashworth, Goldman, Corelogic, Ashworth Locations: Goldman Sachs, West, Southwest, Denver , Colorado
Six of the eight top holdings in his Virtus Silvant Large-Cap Growth Fund (STCIX) are among the top 20 performers in the S&P 500 this year. That performance is quite the departure from last year, where Sansoterra's fund fell more than 29%, yet still managed to finish in the top half of its category. "They're there, but they're just a little bit harder to find." "And a lot of money managers are quality growth, GARP-y growth, momentum growth, high beta growth, et cetera. Indeed, Sansoterra's fund has posted solid relative returns in almost every imaginable environment, data from Morningstar shows.
Persons: Michael Sansoterra's, Eli Lilly, Sansoterra, Sandeep Bhatia, haven't, it's, doesn't Organizations: Virtus Silvant, Growth, Nvidia, Meta, Morningstar, Silvant Capital Management
Earnings will rise in Q3 and bring stocks along for the ride, according to Bank of America. Earnings estimates haven't budged in the last three months, which is better than the typical 4% pre-quarter drop. 10 stocks set for success as Q3 earnings reboundProfits have exceeded GDP by an average of 1.5 percentage points since 1950, according to BofA. Bank of AmericaHowever, Bank of America is confident that a new quarter will bring a clean slate for earnings. Below are 10 stocks that Bank of America believes are most likely to beat expectations in Q3.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Savita Subramanian, there's, Kwon, Subramanian, BofA Organizations: Bank of America, Wall, Bank of America Companies, Bank, Companies
Soaring interest rates and a slowing economy sent US stocks plummeting to their 52-week lows last October. Twelve months later, the S&P 500 has been smacked once again by lingering concerns about interest rates and a recession. The index just hit an oversold level not seen since last fall, Truist co-investment chief Keith Lerner remarked in a recent note. Instead, investors should stay focused on interest rates, Lerner said. 4 top places to put your money nowTruist is bullish on both growth stocks and stocks in economically sensitive sectors.
Persons: Truist, Keith Lerner, Goldman Sachs, Lerner, offsides, doesn't, Israel aren't, they're Organizations: Truist, Investors, Bank of America, Federal, Energy Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Israel
Yahoo FinanceHowever, six leading fixed income investors are confident that the pain won't last much longer. Michele continued: "I've been doing this since 1981, so I've seen a decade of double-digit bond yields with disinflation. Alex Petrone, the director of fixed income at Rockefeller Asset Management, agreed that it's too soon to write off a recession. Nailing timing helps maximize returns, though fixed income experts said that's difficult because the Fed's policy decisions are unpredictable. Buying Treasuries and municipal coupons on both the long and short ends of the curve are how she recommends playing fixed income.
Persons: Jonathan Mondillo, you've, Bob Michele, Michele, I've, we'll, Federal Reserve —, Robert Robis, Robis, Alex Petrone, it's, Petrone, Mary Daly, David Schiffman, Roger Aliaga, Diaz, Aliaga, Mondillo, Schiffman Organizations: Yahoo Finance, JPMorgan Asset Management, isn't, Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Rockefeller Asset Management, Fed, San Francisco Fed, Aquila Investment Management, Vanguard's Investment, Investment Locations: Scotland, bottoming, Abrdn, Aquila, Treasuries, CCC
Corporate earnings have barely budged this year but are expected to jump in 2024. Goldman Sachs says investors are overlooking several stocks with sizable earnings potential. Here are 12 stocks with forward profit estimates that are at least 10% too low. Although US stocks have struggled in recent weeks, they've fared rather well considering that corporate earnings growth will likely be close to zero by the end of the year. This story is available exclusively to Insider subscribers.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, they've, it's
Instead, the CEO of the eponymous investment research firm Meredith Whitney Advisory Group is concerned that the US housing market will face a correction in the coming years. Baby boomers may cause home values to sinkWhitney believes property prices are destined to fall under pressure as demographic shifts reverse deep-rooted supply-demand dynamics. An unprecedented pace of property price growth has disproportionately benefited baby boomers and the silent generation. However, Whitney said that an aging US population won't cause the housing market to crash overnight. While Whitney reserves her full insights for clients, she named four states where property prices will eventually weaken: Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Illinois.
Persons: Meredith Whitney, Oppenheimer, Meredith, Whitney, haven't, CoreLogic There's, That's, you've, that's, it's Organizations: Citigroup, Advisory, National Association of Realtors Locations: Statista, Pennsylvania, Connecticut , New Jersey, Illinois, Texas
The widely followed energy analyst is often ahead of the curve, including in early 2020 when he warned that oil prices could dip negative. And if there's a recession, less economic activity should lead to even lower oil prices. However, higher oil prices would further weigh on demand from consumers and businesses, which raises the risk of causing — or worsening — a recession. Paul Sankey, Sankey Research (based on Bloomberg data)Although refining margins have downward momentum, Sankey said a long oil market drawdown isn't necessarily a foregone conclusion. Geopolitical tensions are an increasingly serious threat, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has recently warned, and a sudden conflict breakout could cause oil prices to surge.
Persons: Paul Sankey, Sankey, Platts, It's, it's, they're, Jamie Dimon, he's Organizations: Sankey Research, Mizuho, Wolfe Research, Deutsche Bank . Institutional Investor, JPMorgan, OPEC, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Exxon, Chevron, Valero, Plains, American Pipeline, Labor Locations: Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Russia, Kazakhstan, China, India, Africa, Latin America, Europe, San Antonio
Goldman Sachs believes the S&P 500 will find a floor and reverse course in the next few months. Here are 40 high-upside stocks to buy as markets rally again. But after the S&P 500 soared nearly 16% in the first half of the year it feels like a disappointment. Higher interest rates and bond yields hampered stocks in the late summer and early fall, culminating in a 4.9% decline in September. Despite the drop, Goldman Sachs is sticking with its mid-year price target of 4,500 for the S&P 500, which is about 6% higher than current levels.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin Organizations: Wall
However, higher-for-longer rates don't always crush valuations and earnings, Bank of America strategists recently noted. In fact, the firm found that the S&P 500 had a 15% total return per year from 1985 to 2005 with inflation-adjusted rates at 3.5%, which is far above today's 2% rate. "Historically, when the indicator has been here or lower, 12m forward S&P 500 returns were positive 95% of the time (vs. 81% overall) with a median return of 21%," Subramanian wrote. The Charlotte-based firm recently raised its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4,600, which implies 7.5% upside. The S&P 500 is top-heavy and expensive, which Bank of America thinks makes funds following the equal-weight version of the index more compelling.
Persons: That's, Savita Subramanian, BofA's, Subramanian, Financials Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Bank of America's, of America, SSI, Bank of, Energy Locations: Charlotte
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