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Here's how Morgan Stanley thinks the stock market will move in 2024, the economic warning signs investors should watch for, and which stocks are best positioned to outperform next year. A stronger stock market in 2024You'd think with the myriad problems stocks are facing right now that the market is in for a difficult year ahead. Wilson believes that earnings growth will accelerate as the year progresses. Morgan StanleyBeyond strong earnings growth for individual companies, Wilson expects that increased spending in a variety of industries will provide fiscal support across the market. Guided by the themes above, Wilson polled Morgan Stanley analysts for their top stock picks heading into 2024.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley Wilson, Wilson, Jerome Powell Organizations: Business, Reserve, Walmart, Target, Fed, White House Locations: headwinds, bailouts
But that's a tricky situation for investors, as cuts would likely come in response to a slowing economy. Rate cuts aren't inherently bullish and signs emerging that the economy is slowing into year-end. AdvertisementMarkets are cheering the possibility the Federal Reserve could begin slashing interest rates next year, but rate cuts are a double-edged sword, Wall Street experts are warning, because of what the move would signal about the broader economy. But rate cuts may not be the decidedly bullish catalyst markets are hoping for. AdvertisementMarkets have been eyeing a Fed rate cut to trigger a bullish rally in stocks.
Persons: , we've, Paul McCulley, Chris Grisanti, We're, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Service, Reserve, Fed, CNBC, Mai Capital Management, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Atlanta Fed
Target is testing a new self-checkout policy
  + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( Nathaniel Meyersohn | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —Target is testing a new self-checkout policy as retailers are finding the cashier-less technology can put off customers. At a handful of stores, Target has restricted self-checkout to customers buying 10 items or fewer. Target and other retailers had expanded self-checkout machines in recent years. Self-checkout machines sometimes break. Target said that merchandise losses, known as shrink, were not a factor in testing new self-checkout policies.
Persons: John Mulligan, , we’ve, Michael Fiddelke Organizations: New, New York CNN, Target, BBC, Walmart, Costco, Locations: New York, United States, Britain
High mortgage rates continue to weigh on the nation's homebuilders, leading to an increase in price cuts to lure buyers. But builders are cautiously optimistic about recent signs that interest rates may move lower soon. Homebuilder sentiment fell six points to 34 in November on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Sentiment is down 22 points since July and is now at the lowest level since the end of last year. "In particular, the 10-year Treasury rate moved back to the 4.5% range for the first time since late September, which will help bring mortgage rates close to or below 7.5%," he said.
Persons: Alicia Huey, Robert Dietz, NAHB's Organizations: National Association of Home Builders, Market, Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo
[1/2] The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.6 million barrels last week to 421.9 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.8 million-barrel rise. Diesel inventories fell more than expected at 1.4 million barrels. The International Energy Agency on Tuesday joined OPEC in raising oil demand growth forecasts for this year, despite projections of slower economic growth in many major countries. European Union diplomats said Russian oil tankers are not targeted in the European Commission's proposal for tightening implementation of a price cap on the country's crude oil.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Brent, John Kilduff, Arathy Somasekhar, Paul Carsten, Sudarshan Varadhan, Laura Sanicola, Marguerita Choy, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, HOUSTON, . West Texas, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Organization of, Petroleum, International Energy Agency, Tuesday, Financial Times, Thomson Locations: Loving County , Texas, U.S, contango, Asia, New York, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Denmark, Houston, London
Solar stocks could rebound in the second half of 2024 after taking a beating this year, though the industry's recovery depends largely on whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again. The rally comes as the residential solar industry looks toward the end of a rough year, with demand softening significantly as repeated rate hikes made installations unattractive for consumers. "The big headwind is interest rates," said Julien Dumoulin-Smith, a stock analyst who covers clean energy for Bank of America. Inventory problem The residential solar companies misread the market this year after a record 2022. The residential solar stocks will probably be broadly revisited on the buyside sometime around the spring of 2024, Blanchard said, though this also depends on what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates.
Persons: SolarEdge, Julien Dumoulin, Smith, we're, Corinne Blanchard, Blanchard, Wood Mackenzie, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, James West, orderbook, West Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Federal, Golden State, Utilities, Evercore ISI Locations: Dumoulin, California, Golden
Wednesday's batch of analyst research included bullish calls on a credit card giant and a sports betting name. The firm downgraded the pharmaceutical stock to neutral from overweight and lowered its price target to $55 per share from $68. The bank downgraded the Canadian Solar to underweight from neutral in a Wednesday note and lowered its price target to $22 per share from $32. The analyst noted that the guidance given confirms his bull case for the stock, which consists of a $70 price target. The bank initiated coverage of the credit card giant with an overweight rating and a $184 per share price target — which implies more than 17% upside from Tuesday's close.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Guggenheim, John DiFucci, there's, Brian Evans, Cantor Fitzgerald downgrades, Myers Squibb Cantor Fitzgerald, We've, Olivia Brayer, Myers Squibb, — Brian Evans, Julien Dumoulin, Smith, Wells, Omar Mejias, Mark Strouse, DraftKings, Stephen Grambling, Grambling, Fred Imbert, millennials, Z, Gen, Terry Ma Organizations: CNBC, Barclays, American Express, Guggenheim, FactSet, Myers Squibb, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Warner Music Group, accel, JPMorgan, American Locations: Bristol, Generac, Europe, CSIQ
TJX Companies (TJX) reported better-than-expected fiscal year 2024 third-quarter results on Wednesday, while again raising its outlook for the full fiscal year — prompting us to upgrade the stock to a buy-equivalent rating. Same-store sales were positive in every segment, with results in the Marmaxx and HomeGoods divisions "entirely driven by customer traffic," according to the company. Management was forced to shave the company's fourth-quarter guidance range to reflect a 3 cent-per-share expense that was pushed out from the third quarter to the fourth. The company also reiterated its same-store sales forecast for the fourth quarter, while increasing its same-store sales forecast for the full year. As was the case with TJX's last earnings report, the company's higher-than-expected cost of sales is not cause for concern as it's a function of higher-than-expected sales results.
Persons: , nitpicking, TJX, That's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Mario Anzuoni Organizations: TJX Companies, LSEG, Marshalls, Management, TJX, CNBC, Maxx Locations: Maxx, Canada, Pasadena , California
REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices inched up on Tuesday after an OPEC report said market fundamentals remained strong and due to concerns supplies might be disrupted as the U.S. cracks down on Russian oil exports. Last week, oil prices slid to their lowest level since July, hurt by concerns that demand could wane in in top oil consumers U.S. and China. Iraq's oil minister expects to reach an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government and foreign oil companies to resume oil production from the Kurdish region's oilfields and resume northern oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. Oil prices were also supported by a U.S. crackdown on Russian oil exports, potentially disrupting supply. Focal points for the market include the International Energy Agency's latest monthly oil market report later in the day.
Persons: Dun Jiao, Tatiana Meel, Emily Chow, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Brent, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ Research, Kurdistan Regional Government, of Commerce, U.S . Treasury Department, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, International Energy, Energy, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, China, Iraq, Kurdish, Turkey, Washington, Moscow
U.S. Secretary of Treasury, Janet Yellen hosts a Finance Ministers? Meeting plenary at the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Summit in San Francisco, California, U.S. November 13, 2023. "This is a decision I disagree with," she said at a news conference at the close of the APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting in San Francisco, California. The ratings agency on Friday lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to "negative" from "stable," citing large fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability. The rise in long-term interest rates would create a challenge to debt sustainability if it lasts, Yellen acknowledged.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Carlos Barria, Yellen, Biden, David Lawder, Ann Saphir, Tom Hogue Organizations: Treasury, Ministers, APEC, Economic Cooperation, REUTERS, FRANCISCO, . Treasury, Monday, APEC Finance, Internal Revenue Service, House Republicans, Thomson Locations: Asia, San Francisco , California, U.S
Home Depot earnings, sales fall but beats forecast
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
New York CNN —Home Depot reported slower earnings on weaker sales, although it still was able to beat Wall Street analysts’ forecasts. Consumers aren’t spending on home improvement projects the way they were during the pandemic. But the company said it is still seeing some strength in smaller improvement jobs, which represent a key part of its business. “We saw continued customer engagement with smaller projects, and experienced pressure in certain big-ticket, discretionary categories,” said CEO Ted Decker. Revenue slipped 3% to $37.7 billion, which was slightly better than the forecast of $37.6 billion.
Persons: , , Ted Decker, Refinitiv Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wall, Revenue Locations: New York
But the cost of crude oil has been largely declining since the middle of October. The average for a gallon of gas in the United States, meanwhile, dropped to $3.37, according to AAA. This “steady, if slow” decline in gas prices, said an AAA spokesperson, may soon gain speed if oil prices continue their descent. They’re more concerned with economic weakness in China and an increase in oil production in the United States. In the first week of November, US crude oil production reached a new record of 13.2 million barrels per day.
Persons: ” David Kelly, , ” David Morrison, refiners, ” Craig Erlam, Brent, Chris Isidore, , Ted Decker, Refinitiv, Read, Homebuyers Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, AAA, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Trade, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, . West Texas Intermediate, International Energy Agency, Revenue, National Association of Realtors, Census Locations: New York, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, China, Iran, America, United
The firm upgraded shares of the late-stage biotech to buy from hold, lifting its price target to $26 from $18. Shares of Vera Therapeutics have fallen 37.8% this year, but analyst Farzin Haque believes the stock's recent pullback now means an attractive entry point for investors. VERA YTD mountain VERA YTD chart "W/ shares down –30% (vs XBI –13%) since Sept 21 TVTX data release, we have become more optimistic about atacicept (dual BAFF/APRIL) clin profile," Haque wrote. Atacicept, which Vera took over from Merck, is a drug that treats certain autoimmune diseases. "W/ recent increasing focus on eGFR, VERA's OLE data from ph.II for longer-term eGFR data (expected 1Q24) has now become an important catalyst for the stock," Haque said.
Persons: Vera, Jefferies, Vera Therapeutics, Farzin Haque, VERA YTD, VERA, Haque, Lupus nephritis, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Vera, Merck Locations: ph.II
Investors shouldn't expect too many changes in 2024, according to the top investing minds at Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM). GSAM strategists suggested that investors are overlooking the risk that the conflicts cause a sharp slowdown. Higher bond yields usually reflect higher risk since investors demand better compensation for going out on a limb. But it's not just junk bonds that have enticing yields — Wilson-Elizondo said debt for investment-grade firms pays mid-single-digit rates despite boasting robust fundamentals. Sophisticated investors can enhance their returns further with private credit, which Wilson-Elizondo said can offer lofty yields of 11% to 12%.
Persons: they're, Alexandra Wilson, Elizondo, GSAM's, Ashish Shah, Shah, David Rosenberg, Wilson, Michael Bruun, it's, Goldman Sachs, Bruun, " Bruun, — Wilson Organizations: Investors, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Consumers, BSE, Nikkei Locations: GSAM, Israel, Ukraine, India, Japan, China
“So many more people have credit cards now.”Wise says the main thing to watch for is how strapped consumers are in their overall financial condition. There are signs the consumer may still have a little left in the tank. And speaking of tanks, gas prices have been coming down, a move that will free up a little more money for consumers to spend. And this occurred while consumers repeatedly tell surveys they are feeling gloomy and pessimistic about the state of the economy. The pace of increase in consumer prices has fallen from around 9% annually in the summer of 2022 to under 4% now.
Persons: , Donghoon Lee, , TransUnion, TrasnUnion, Charlie Wise, ” Wise, we’ve, ” Patrick De Haan, De Haan, Lisa Sturtevant, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Joseph Brusuelas, Tuan Nyugen Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed, TransUnion, , MLS, Federal, ” Goldman, Adobe Locations: U.S, California
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe clean energy transition is a likely headwind for ethanol demand, says Bernstein's Chad DillardChad Dillard, Bernstein senior analyst, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the impact of the clean energy transition on agriculture, the outlook for electric vehicles, and more.
Persons: Chad Dillard Chad Dillard, Bernstein
"On the headwind side, certainly being in a higher rate environment is something we have to be mindful of. Bernstein said the U.S. economy was outperforming virtually all its competitors and urged Congress to pass the necessary appropriations bills to keep the government running. We've got a very strong backdrop to a U.S. economy that's outperforming virtually all our competitors," he said. Asked about recent negative polls reflecting concern about President Joe Biden's handling of the economy, Bernstein said Americans had to reset their price expectations given an increase in their buying power. Bernstein said the Biden administration had taken a series of steps to ease prices while maintaining a strong labor market.
Persons: Jared Bernstein, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Washington, Bernstein, We've, Joe Biden's, Biden, Jeff Mason, Eric Beech, Andrea Shalal, Dan Burns, Richard Chang Organizations: of Economic Advisers, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Capitol, REUTERS, U.S . Council, Economic, Reuters NEXT, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Israel, Gaza, U.S, New York, joblessness
Uber reported third-quarter results Tuesday that missed analysts' expectations on top and bottom lines but showed strength in other areas, like gross bookings, which exceeded the company's guidance from the second quarter. Here's how the company did:Earnings per share: 10 cents vs. 12 cents expected by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. Uber reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.09 billion, up $576 million year-over-year and above the $1.02 billion expected by analysts polled by StreetAccount. Gross bookings for the quarter came in at $35.3 billion, up 21% year over year and above the company's guidance last quarter. The figure is also in line with the $1.28 billion Uber reported last quarter when Khosrowshahi told CNBC freight has remained a challenging spot for the company.
Persons: Uber, Dara Khosrowshahi, StreetAccount, Gross, Khosrowshahi Organizations: GE, Chelsea Industrial, LSEG, Uber, Mobility, CNBC Locations: New York City
Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's standing by its overweight rating on the stock after its 10-K annual report. Morgan Stanley initiated Tal Education as overweight Morgan Stanley said the China education company is defensive. Morgan Stanley names TotalEnergies a top pick Morgan Stanley named TotalEnergies a top pick and says the energy company has "resource depth and resilience." Morgan Stanley reiterates Tesla as overweight Morgan Stanley said in a note Tuesday that Tesla needs to "stop missing numbers" and execute better, but that the firm is sticking with its overweight rating. Morgan Stanley downgrades Re/Max to underweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said in its downgrade of Re/Max that it sees too many negative catalysts for the real estate company.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Apple, it's, Edward Jones, Hewlett Packard, PC's, D.A, Davidson, Appian, Wells, Wells Fargo, financials, Tal, EDU, TAL, TotalEnergies, TJX, Goldman Sachs, Tesla, Melius, Morgan Stanley downgrades, Max Organizations: RBC, Home, ISI, Nike, Athletic, UBS, Apple, Citi, Deutsche Bank, TAM, Hewlett, Disney, Tal Education, BP, TJX Companies, Thomson Reuters, Nasdaq, Tesla, Nvidia Locations: Ceridian, China, OW
Bumble shares drop as founder Wolfe Herd to relinquish CEO role
  + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
[1/2] Bumble CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd has her photo taken on the red carpet after arriving for the TIME 100 Gala in Manhattan, New York, U.S., April 24, 2018. She will take over on Jan. 2, while Wolfe Herd will remain executive chair. "Lidiane's expertise and track record in product and technology is exceptional," said Wolfe Herd as the company looks to adopt artificial intelligence across its products. Wolfe Herd, 33, launched the company in 2014 after an acrimonious departure from Match Group-owned rival app Tinder, which she had co-founded. This is the second big executive departure this year at Bumble following the exit of President Tariq Shaukat, who stepped down after three years in the role.
Persons: Bumble, Whitney Wolfe Herd, Shannon Stapleton, Whitney Wolfe, Lidiane Jones, Jones, Slack, Wolfe, Wolfe Herd, Gen, Tariq Shaukat, Yuvraj Malik, Maju Samuel, Arun Koyyur Organizations: REUTERS, Microsoft, Match Group, Bumble, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York, U.S, Eastern Europe, Bengaluru
Foreign bond investors are "extremely concerned" about US deficits, a TD Securities analyst told Insider. The possible dumping of US assets in Japan and China looms large over bond markets. AdvertisementAdvertisementTo be sure, US bond yields retreated sharply over the past week after they hit 17-year highs last month amid a massive bond sell-off. US Treasury demand is hitting another headwind as yields around the world have shot up as well, according to Goldberg. "Europe was at negative interest rates, Japan was at negative interest rates.
Persons: , Gennadiy Goldberg, It's, Goldberg, that's Organizations: TD, Treasury, Service, TD Securities, Fitch, Treasury Department Locations: Japan, China, Europe, Beijing, Tokyo
Here are Friday biggest calls on Wall Street: Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's standing by Apple shares after its earnings report on Thursday. Berenberg downgrades Estee Lauder to hold from buy Berenberg downgraded the stock after its disappointing earnings report earlier this week. Morgan Stanley reiterates Carvana as underweight Morgan Stanley said it's sticking with its underweight rating on the stock after its earnings report on Thursday. " Evercore ISI downgrades Fortinet to in line from outperform Evercore downgraded the cybersecurity company after its earnings report. JPMorgan reiterates Starbucks as overweight JPMorgan said the coffee giant is "still one to buy" after its earnings report on Thursday. "
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Apple, it's, downgrades Estee Lauder, Estée Lauder, Piper Sandler, Piper, OMCL, Key, Wolfe, Mizuho, C27E, JPMorgan downgrades, Papa John's, PZZA, Raymond James, Carvana, CVNA, Redburn, JPMorgan, SBUX, Guggenheim, GNRC Organizations: Apple, DOJ, Uber, Deutsche Bank, Molson Coors, Deutsche, HSBC, Moderna, Nvidia, Mizuho, JPMorgan, JPMorgan downgrades Fox, FOX, Barclays, Retail, Evercore, billings, Guggenheim, Citi, Cedar, Flags, ~$
AAPL YTD mountain Apple YTD Apple shares fell more than 3% after the release. Cash and capital allocation In its September quarter, Apple generated operating cash flow and free cash flow results that were lower than what the Street was looking for. Services, a high-margin business for Apple, reached a new all-time revenue record with growth accelerating to 16% on a year-over-year basis. On the call, CEO Tim Cook said Apple "achieved all-time revenue records across App Store, advertising, AppleCare, iCloud, Payment Services and video as well as a September quarter revenue record in Apple Music." Maestri said Apple achieved "all-time revenue records in the Americas, Europe, and rest of Asia-Pacific and a September quarter record in Greater China.
Persons: we've, Cash, we're, Apple, it's, Tim Cook, Maestri, Luca Maestri, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Patrick T, Fallon Organizations: Apple, Products, Services, Fortune, MacBook Air, Apple Watch, Management, CNBC, Grove Apple, AFP, Getty Locations: Apple's, Americas, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Greater China, China, Latin America, East, South Asia, India, Los Angeles , California
Paramount Global's stock moved higher in extended trading Thursday after it reported strong revenue and subscription trends in its third-quarter earnings report. In the third quarter, streaming service Paramount+ saw 2.7 million net additions to its 63 million total subscriber count. Adjusted for one-time items, earnings per share were 30 cents during the period. "Looking ahead, we remain on the path to achieving significant total company earnings growth in 2024." Paramount and other media stocks closed higher Thursday as streaming device maker Roku surged 30% following its own stellar earnings report.
Persons: Bob Bakish, Roku, there's, Bakish, Naveen Chopra, Chopra, we've, Simon & Schuster Organizations: Paramount, Columbia, CBS, Showtime, BET, Nickelodeon, SAG, WGA, Netflix, KKR, CNBC PRO Locations: Hollywood , California
But while gas shortages are unlikely in Europe this winter, the price of the fuel remains a worry. According to S&P Global, about one-fifth of global LNG supply travels through the channel on Iran’s south coast. In a less jittery market, neither incident may have had the effect it did, helping boost European gas prices by more than 40% over the course of a single week. High gas prices have presented a persistent economic headwind for Europe's biggest economy due to its reliance on energy-intensive industries. Together, these milestones should push European gas prices down to €30 ($32) per megawatt hour by the end of next year, Weatherburn added.
Persons: Asia —, Soeren, , Jack Sharples, Heikki Saukkomaa, Simone Tagliapietra, Bill Weatherburn, Stefan Sauer, Weatherburn, Organizations: London CNN, European Union, International Energy Agency, EU, Getty, , Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, CNN, Hamas, P, Chevron, Egyptian, Steam, , Capital Economics, Qatar, Energy Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Europe, North America, Asia, Norway, Hungary, Austria, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Germany, Israel, Gaza, Hormuz, Jordan, Egypt, Cairo, Estonia, Australia, AFP, , ” Europe, France, Italy, Lubmin, Pomerania, United States, Qatar
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