Though rates are high now as major central banks battle inflation, "when inflation is brought back under control, advanced economies’ central banks are likely to ease monetary policy and bring real interest rates back toward pre-pandemic levels," IMF analysts said in research released as part of the latest World Economic Outlook. The so-called "natural" rates of interest, an anchor for monetary policy that neither stimulates nor discourages economic activity, "will remain low in advanced economies or decline further in emerging markets," the IMF concluded. But is also means central banks, particularly in developed countries, may again have to rely on bond buying and other strategies once some future downturn prompts them to cut policy interest rates to zero. The IMF said it is possible things have changed, and noted that the impact of developments like the transition to a less carbon-intensive economy remain to be seen. Once rates normalize at prior low levels, a deep enough recession may force central banks "to resort to the same strategies they employed in the decade before the pandemic, such as balance sheet policy and forward guidance."

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