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Wall Street's main indexes continued their losing streak for a fourth straight session on Monday as investors shied away from riskier bets, worried that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes could push the U.S. economy into recession. The Fed has managed to slow the economy down so it's likely that earnings estimates (for Q4) are going to come down. Treasuries fell following the BOJ's shock move, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rising to a three-week high of 3.66%. Earlier, data showed U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in November as higher mortgage rates continued to depress housing market activity. A slew of other economic data due this week including consumer confidence and core inflation will provide more clues to investors on future interest rate hikes.
In light of the hubbub surrounding FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried, this morning I'm thinking about a quote by novelist G. Michael Hopf:"Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times." And that's the sense I got from speaking to one 26-year-old investor who lost a sizable chunk of his portfolio in FTX. I just caught up with FTX user Daniil Pemberton, who lost access to roughly $14,000 in funds when the crypto exchange imploded last month. Now, FTX users like Pemberton have been left with a hole in their pockets and faltering faith in the digital asset sector. Do you have a story to share about losing access to funds in FTX, or on how you're changing your investment strategy?
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSnacking is one of the fastest growing grocery categories, reports CFRA's Arun SundaramArun Sundaram from CFRA, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the reasons behind his General Mills downgrade, CFRA's top pick for packaged food in 2023 and deterioration in the pet food sales segment profit margins.
Lucid (LCID) – Lucid rallied 5.% in premarket trading after the electric vehicle maker raised more than $1.5 billion in a series of stock sales. Rocket Lab (RKLB) – Rocket Lab fell 1.3% in premarket action after announcing a delay in its first rocket launch from the United States. Rocket Lab cited both poor weather conditions as well as regulatory delays stemming from the processing of documentation by NASA and the Federal Aviation Administration. As a result, Rocket Lab cut its revenue forecast for the fourth quarter. BMO expects positive announcements from Beam's partner Verve Therapeutics (VERV) to help drive the stock higher.
A sign is posted in front of the Gilead Sciences headquarters on April 29, 2020 in Foster City, California. Check out the companies making the biggest moves midday:General Mills — General Mills dropped 4.2%, despite reporting better-than-expected revenue and profit for the last quarter. Gilead Sciences — Gilead Sciences sank 2.4% after announcing its Kite unit would acquire biotech company Tmunity Therapeutics. Tesla – Shares of Tesla sank 5.3% after Evercore ISI lowered its price target on them, citing concerns as the stock failed to hold a key level. Arch Capital — The Bermuda-based insurance company rose 2.5%.
While none of these have been a disaster, only one company — Autozone — has seen first quarter estimates rise after its report, according to Nick Raich at The Earnings Scout. And that is the problem: Earnings estimates have been trending down for weeks. Like all multinational retailers, analysts began slashing Nike's second half 2022 earnings estimates and 2023 estimates this summer. Single-stock ETFs Nike's earnings out after the bell today will focus some attention on a curious phenomenon from 2022: single stock ETFs. Like most of the other single stock ETFs, this has failed to attract any significant assets.
Morning Bid: Land of the rising yields
  + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. In the last major central bank set-piece of the year, the BOJ raised its long-standing cap on 10-year Japanese government bond yields by quarter of a percentage point to 0.5% - sending those yields and the yen surging and squeezing stocks further. Yet most investors felt that was only likely when BOJ chief Haruhiko Kuroda stepped down in April. Japan's 10-year bond yields immediately almost doubled close to the new 0.5% target, with U.S. Treasury and European sovereign debt yields rising in their slipstream. Apart from the timing, the BOJ move marks a significant moment in draining the world economy of central bank liquidity pumped in to support economies during the pandemic.
CNBC Pro looked at stocks that are poised to lose the most in 2023 based on the average analyst price target, according to FactSet. Asset manager Franklin Resources has the most downside next year, set to lose 12%, according to the average analyst price target on FactSet. Also making the list is food giant General Mills , which has nearly 8% downside to the average analyst price target. The stock has nearly 7% downside to the average analyst price target, per FactSet. Lastly, Etsy has nearly 4% downside to the average analyst price target.
Stock futures were slightly higher on Monday night. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 44 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures edged higher by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Last week, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points and policymakers indicated the terminal rate could rise as high as 5.1%. A handful of big companies will report their quarterly results this week ahead of the Christmas holiday.
With the Federal Reserve out of the way, and major economic news light (only the PCE on this Friday), traders are bracing for a wave of earnings reductions from the analysts community ahead of fourth quarter earnings. "Fed induced recession fears are to blame for December's pullback," Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a note to clients. Analyst earnings expectations for the fourth quarter have been in negative territory for several weeks, and now expectations for the first quarter of 2023 are also on the verge of going negative. It's very early, but early reporters have not been disastrous. So, early February 2023 is when the worst of the cuts may occur," wrote Raich.
While that’s already had a negative impact on the housing market, we’ll get more details this week about how much worse the damage has become. A long list of housing data is on tap. On Tuesday the US Census Bureau will report housing starts and building permits figures for November, followed by Friday’s release of new home sales data for the same month. Housing market was frothy, but not a bubbleOthers in the industry are cautiously optimistic as well. That all amounts to a few good reasons why the housing market could avoid a severe and prolonged slump.
But what irked markets was Fed Chair Jerome Powell's indication the Fed could continue to raise rates for longer to bring inflation under control. The S & P 500 lost around 2.25% for the week, closing out Friday down more than 1%. Under the hood, the consumer discretionary sector led to the downside this week, followed by financials and technology. Initial jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 10 came in at 211,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the prior week and below expectations of 232,000. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
All estimates for earnings, revenue and economic data are courtesy of FactSet. ETProjected EPS: $2.82Projected sales: $23.70 billion Last time FedEx reported, it detailed significant cost-cutting plans that should help boost profitability. Nike Q2 2023 earnings at 4:15 p.m. Thursday: Earnings from Paychex and CarmaxPaychex Q2 2023 earnings before the open; conference call at 9:30 a.m. ETProjected EPS: 95 centsProjected sales: $1.19 billion Cramer said he thinks Paychex is an even better small- and medium-size business barometer than Cintas.
Stocks were battered in the past week, as investors reacted to a hawkish message from the Federal Reserve. In the past week, stocks rallied Tuesday after the consumer price index showed a smaller-than-expected increase of 7.1% for November. "There's a lot of housing data next week," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. Ned Davis Research pointed out in a note this week that there has been a recent negative correlation between stocks and bonds, meaning stocks are falling and so are yields. Ned Davis expects the negative correlation to continue for the foreseeable future, and is watching the rolling one-year correlation between the S & P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield.
Buy shares of Estee Lauder as China starts to ease Covid restrictions, according to Deutsche Bank. Analyst Steve Powers upgraded shares to buy from hold, saying the higher likelihood Beijing will ease Covid restrictions in March or April raises confidence in the stock. Shares of Estee Lauder came under pressure this year as the beauty company with a high exposure to China dealt with the country's strict Covid restrictions. The analyst expects that Estee Lauder's China business will recover after struggling in 2022. Estee Lauder is expected to have three additional distribution centers over the next half year, with one already open in Guangzhou, according to the note.
In this environment, investors need to be very granular in their approach to the stock market, according to investor Jenny Harrington. "Everything in this market right now is moving asynchronously," Harrington said in an interview during the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit on Tuesday. While she is a dividend investor, she is also looking for value in this current market. "The share price has, I think, already discounted an incredibly weak consumer, trading at 10 times earnings," Harrington said. So those will actually become tail winds in next year earnings versus 2022 earnings."
IHOP and General Mills are making pancake cereal, an homage to the 2020 TikTok trend. Restaurant chain IHOP and General Mills, which makes Cheerios and Lucky Charms, is releasing a blueberry-and-syrup-flavored mini pancake cereal. Pancake cereal took off in early 2020 when TikTok users posted videos of themselves making tiny pancakes – sometimes smaller than a dime. A post shared by Kitchen League (@kitchenleague)"After the viral moment in 2020, we knew guests had an appetite for an IHOP cereal," IHOP Chief Marketing Officer Kieran Donahue said in the statement. The campaign is the company's take on the "dirty soda" trend on TikTok, which involves mixing soda with cream and syrup.
Apple and Amazon resume advertising on Twitter, reports say
  + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Dec 3 (Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and Apple Inc (AAPL.O) are planning to resume advertising on Twitter, according to media reports on Saturday. Twitter billed the offer as the "biggest advertiser incentive ever on Twitter," according to the email reviewed by Reuters. On Saturday, a Platformer News reporter tweeted that Amazon is planning to resume advertising on Twitter at about $100 million a year, pending some security tweaks to the company's ads platform. However, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters that Amazon had never stopped advertising on Twitter. Separately, during a Twitter Spaces conversation, Musk announced that Apple is the largest advertiser on Twitter and has "fully resumed" advertising on the platform, according to a Bloomberg report.
[1/2] Twitter logo and a photo of Elon Musk are displayed through magnifier in this illustration taken October 27, 2022. The billionaire CEO of Twitter and Tesla also said Apple was pressuring Twitter over content moderation demands. Parler was restored by Apple in 2021 after the app updated its content and moderation practices, the companies said at the time. "Apple has mostly stopped advertising on Twitter. Musk also said "yes" in response to a user question on whether Apple was threatening Twitter's presence in the App Store or making moderation demands.
Musk says Apple mostly stopped advertising on Twitter
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Nov 28 (Reuters) - Billionaire Elon Musk said in a tweet on Monday that Apple Inc (AAPL.O) has mostly stopped advertising on Twitter. Apple and Twitter did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Earlier in November, Musk said Twitter had seen a "massive" drop in revenue and blamed activist groups for pressuring advertisers. read moreSeveral companies including General Mills Inc (GIS.N) and luxury automaker Audi of America have paused advertising on Twitter since Musk completed his purchase, while General Motors Co (GM.N) said it had temporarily halted paid advertising on the social media platform. read moreApple spent an estimated $131,600 on Twitter ads between Nov. 10 and Nov. 16, down from $220,800 between Oct. 16 and Oct. 22, the week before Musk closed the Twitter acquisition, according to ad measurement firm Pathmatics.
CNN —Sunday officially marks one month since the world’s richest man took the helm at Twitter. After spending months embroiled in an unsuccessful legal battle to get out of his initial proposal to buy Twitter, Musk made his first splashy entrance into the company’s offices on Oct. 26, carrying a sink. (In a video of the incident shared on Twitter, he wrote: “Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!) In another dramatic move by the new boss, Musk publicly fired a software engineer who had survived the initial round of cuts, but who then questioned Musk on Twitter. Musk goes onto to grant ‘amnesty’ to most previously banned accountsAfter conducting yet another Twitter poll, Musk said on Nov. 24 that he will begin restoring most previously banned accounts on Twitter starting next week.
"US profit margins surged after the recession. "Greedflation" — the idea that companies are using inflation as an excuse to raise prices and boost profits — could be part of the explanation. But they have also taken advantage of circumstances to expand profit margins," said UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan. To what extent soaring corporate profits are to blame for high inflation remains uncertain, but as inflation slows down, the negative CEO sentiment suggests some companies' profits are set to fall as well. In September, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said retailers' profit margins "have risen significantly more than the average hourly wage that retailers pay workers."
The Tesla CEO has previously said he “hates advertising” and, as Twitter’s owner, professed a desire to make the company more reliant on subscription revenue than advertising dollars. Twitter has always struggled to turn its outsized influence in media, politics, and culture into a highly successful advertising business. Twitter’s advertising business has long been smaller than that of rivals like Facebook, in part because it didn’t offer the same level of user targeting. To successfully overhaul Twitter into a thriving subscription business would be to buck the trend of many other media properties that have struggled with the model. Twitter’s ad woesWhether he likes advertising or not, the business made up 90% of Twitter’s revenue prior to Musk’s takeover and replacing it won’t be an immediate shift.
Elon Musk says his $44 billion Twitter takeover might result in a bankruptcy filing. To make the deal work, Mr. Musk has been trying to add subscription revenue and reassure advertisers about the platform’s future. What’s more, the company’s debt stack now includes floating-rate debt, meaning that interest costs are set to rise as the Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates. Twitter’s credit ratings, which were below investment grade before the transaction with Mr. Musk, have deteriorated further. For that, Mr. Musk would need to persuade potential investors that he has a viable long-term business plan, he said.
The former head of safety and trust said Twitter is actually safer under Elon Musk. Yoel Roth wrote an op ed for The New York Times explaining the reasons for his departure. "A Twitter whose policies are defined by edict has little need for a trust and safety function." However, Roth commented that even as Musk "criticizes the capriciousness of platform policies, he perpetuates the same lack of legitimacy through his impulsive changes and tweet-length pronouncements about Twitter's rules. In appointing himself 'chief twit,' Mr. Musk has made clear that at the end of the day, he'll be the one calling the shots."
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