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☆ Dollar scales fresh peaks as Fed cut bets recede
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"A one-two punch from Jay Powell's FOMC presser and a very strong nonfarm payrolls report have essentially closed the door on a March rate cut," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. The Japanese yen was last 0.15% lower at 148.58 per dollar, having hit a trough of 148.82 earlier in the session. Treasury yields also jumped on expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. rates, with the two-year yield, which typically reflects near-term interest rate expectations, last up nearly seven bps at 4.4386%. That did little to help the yuan, with the offshore yuan last marginally lower at 7.2182 per dollar, pressured by a stronger greenback. "So far we've just seen speculation and some media reports talking about further support for the equity market or the property market.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Jay Powell's FOMC presser, Chris Weston, Powell, Carol Kong, CBA's Organizations: Federal Reserve, New, Traders, Fed, CBS, Sterling, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, New Zealand

☆ The Fed's first rate cut won't happen until June after surprisingly cautious guidance from the central bank, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The first Fed rate cut probably isn't coming until June, according to Bank of America. Central bank chief Jerome Powell pushed back on hopes for a March rate cut on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe Fed's first rate cut is now unlikely to come in March after the central bank struck a surprisingly hawkish tone at Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to Bank of America. Investors still see an aggressive pace of rate cuts by the end of the year, despite lowered hopes for a March cut. AdvertisementExperts have warned that Fed rate cuts could be a double-edged sword for the economy, particularly if the Fed cuts interest rates rapidly.

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, Jerome Powell's presser, aren't, Powell, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Fed

☆ You hear the market expects six Fed rate cuts this year — here's where that data comes from
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

This week's question: CNBC guests often say six Fed cuts are priced into the 2024 market. – Mike H. When you hear about the number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts being priced into the market, the data comes from the CME FedWatch tool . The overnight fed funds bank lending rate is the rate that everyone is referring to when talking about Fed rate moves. You may have heard us say things like, the market is trading on Fed rate cuts. This week's question: CNBC guests often say six Fed cuts are priced into the 2024 market.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Mike H, Jerome Powell, Jim Organizations: Federal, CME, That's, CNBC

☆ A change to this one clause could be the most important part of the Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"We heard at the December meeting that no official expected to raise rates further as a baseline outcome. And we've heard that Fed officials are beginning the discussions around rate cuts," Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist, said in an interview. Now, there's considerably more uncertainty as multiple statements from Fed officials point to a more cautious approach about declaring victory over inflation. The inflation rate judged by core personal consumption expenditures prices, a U.S. Department of Commerce measure that the Fed favors, indicates the real funds rate to be around 2.4%. Fed officials figure the long-run real rate to be closer to 0.5%.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, we've, Matthew Luzzetti, Luzzetti, He'll, Bill English Organizations: Federal, Washington , D.C, Xinhua News Agency, Getty, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Bank's, Fed, U.S . Department of Commerce, Yale School of Management Locations: Washington ,

☆ Nasdaq 100 futures slide, Alphabet shares drop after results: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell Tuesday night after a pair of mega-cap tech companies posted their quarterly results. Futures tied to the S&P 500 were down 0.4%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures traded near the flatline. In after-hours trading, shares of Alphabet dropped 5.3%, while Microsoft shed 0.3% after the tech giants posted quarterly earnings. The fed funds futures market has priced in a nearly 98% probability that the central bank will leave rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Chipmaker Qualcomm is scheduled to announce its quarterly earnings after the close.

Persons: Sam Stovall, —, Stovall, Dow, Jerome Powell's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Microsoft, Fed, Dow, Boeing, Qualcomm Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ 'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb says the US is heading for a debt 'death spiral'
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US is headed for a debt "death spiral" if politicians don't rein in spending, Nassim Taleb said. "The Black Swan" author said debt troubles will continue if Congress can't"A debt spiral is like a death spiral," Taleb said at an event on Monday. AdvertisementThe US is facing a "death spiral" as a result of its mounting debt and the inability of politicians to confront the issue, according to "The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb. In fact, rising debt in the US is a "white swan," Taleb said, and is an event that poses an obvious risk to markets versus a "black swan" event, which can occur without much warning. "A debt spiral is like a death spiral," he added.

Persons: Nassim Taleb, Swan, Taleb, —, Per, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Per Bloomberg, Universa Investments, Fed, Investors Locations: West, Congress

☆ S&P 500 futures are little changed as investors parse latest earnings reports: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

S&P 500 futures are near flat Monday night as investors analyzed the latest corporate earnings with the Federal Reserve policy meeting on the horizon. These moves follow a winning day on Wall Street that brought the Dow and S&P 500 to their sixth record closes of the year. Monday marked the start of a busy week for corporate earnings, with 19% of companies in the S&P 500 set to report. Of the nearly one-quarter of S&P 500 members that have already reported, about 72% exceeded Wall Street expectations, according to FactSet. Elsewhere on Tuesday, investors will follow Microsoft and Alphabet , two of the mega-cap technology names set to report earnings this week.

Persons: Keith Buchanan, We've Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Whirlpool, Dow, Globalt Investments, U.S . Treasury Department, Federal, Microsoft, Apple, General Motors, UPS, Starbucks Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ How to get the biggest bang for your buck while investing in dividend-paying stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

As attractive as today's yields may look on certain dividend-paying stocks, they only tell part of the story when you're choosing names for income. Lower interest rates make other income-generating assets, including dividend-paying stocks, more attractive compared to the risk-free yields on Treasurys. Dividend stocks took their lumps during 2022 as the Fed embarked on its rate hikes – consider that the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) posted a total return of negative 9% in 2022 – and rate-sensitive income stocks in the utilities and real estate sector suffered. Check with your brokerage to make sure you have dividends reinvested as your preference for individual stocks and ETFs. Picking the right names Dividend investors are seeing 2024 as a potential rebound year for these stocks, anticipating a broadening rally.

Persons: Michael Arone, Dow, VIG, would've, Grace Lee, –, Dow Jones, Arone, Chris Hayes Organizations: SPDR, State, Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Vanguard, CNBC Pro, IBM, Columbia, Opportunity, Walgreens, Alliance

☆ Stock futures fall ahead of big tech earnings and Fed meeting decision: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Dow Jones and S&P both hit all time highs with the Dow Jones closing over 38,000 points for the first time ever as stocks continue to rise. U.S. stock futures fell across the board Sunday night as Wall Street looked toward several mega-cap tech earnings reports and the Federal Reserve's rate policy decision. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 86 points, or 0.2%. This week marks the busiest week of the earnings season, with 19% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings. Traders in the fed funds futures market assigned an almost 97% probability the Fed will not cut rates at the upcoming meeting, according to the CME Group.

Persons: Dow Jones, Tesla, Sonu Varghese Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intel, Microsoft, Apple, Dow, Boeing, Merck, Federal, Traders, CME, Carson Group Locations: New York City, . U.S

☆ A slate of banks slashed CD yields. Here’s where you can still find a solid rate
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Online banks, which have offered some of the richest annual percentage yields on savings products, are slashing the interest they pay. Though the 1-year Treasury bill is yielding about 4.78%, select institutions will offer upward of 5% to hold your cash in a 1-year CD. "We believe banks are repositioning their CD rates ahead of potential Fed rate cuts in 2024," said analyst Michael Kaye in a report on Friday. See below for a table of where online banks now stand on 1-year CD rates. Wells Fargo scanned the online banks under its coverage and found the average APY for a 1-year CD was 0.64% in March 2022.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Michael Kaye, Mark Haefele, Cash Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, CME Group, Synchrony, UBS Locations: Wells

☆ Wall Street is barreling toward a big week ahead with megacap earnings, Fed meeting in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Wall Street is headed into the thick of earnings season, with results on deck from the bulk of the so-called Magnificent Seven names. On top of that, the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision and the January jobs report will be in focus. Federal Reserve meeting Investors aren't anticipating much out of the Fed meeting next week. Market participants say recent reports show the trends have been going in the right direction, and Friday's report is expected to confirm the softening in the jobs market. Other significant earnings in the week ahead include Boeing , a major Dow component.

Persons: Russell, we've, Shannon Saccocia, Jonathan Krinsky, Tesla, that'll, Hogan, you've, John Bailer, Jerome Powell, Tony Welch, Welch, FactSet Organizations: Microsoft, Nvidia, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, JPMorgan, Riley Securities, Newton Investment Management, Fed, PCE, Boeing, Alaska Airlines, Dallas, Whirlpool, Petroleum, United Parcel Service, General Motors, Pfizer, Devices, ADP, ECI Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Labor, PMI, Manufacturing, Apple, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: Thursday's, nonfarm payrolls, Chicago, Royal Caribbean, Michigan

☆ How we're rendering the Fed a non-factor in our investment decisions in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

With Wednesday's hot purchasing managers' numbers that demonstrate the strength of both the service and manufacturing portions of the economy, it's even more doubtful that we will get rate cuts soon. After all, inflation is the most ruinous force against us, and we must be sure it does not come back. We don't want rate cuts because the economy is weak. Additionally, rate cuts foment inflation, and that won't help the stock market, either. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

Persons: let's, it's, DR, FactSet, —, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Squawk, Virginia Sherwood Organizations: Federal, White, Silicon Valley Bank, Dupont, Texas, Nvidia, Netflix, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: U.S, Silicon

☆ Even with progress on inflation and solid growth, the Fed will want to see more before cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Solid economic economic growth combined with decelerating inflation feels like the perfect combination for the Federal Reserve to dial down its restrictive monetary policy. More broadly, though, the resilient nature of the economy brought the Fed closer to its goal of arresting inflation without crushing growth. On the balance between the threat of overheating growth and the positive developments on inflation, Bovino thinks the Fed will be more inclined to cast a wary eye on the growth side. "They have their work cut out for them." "They want to make absolutely sure inflation is killed, and they're not going to cut rates until that is the case."

Persons: Beth Ann Bovino, there's, Bovino, they'll, Bill Adams, Jerome, Powell, Gus Faucher, haven't, Dan North, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Commerce Department's, Economic, CME Group, Comerica Bank, Fed, PNC Financial Services, North America, Allianz Trade

☆ Microsoft's $3 trillion market cap milestone is the latest in a string of wins for Big Tech's elder statesman
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at Microsoft notching another big win by briefly reaching a $3 trillion valuation. It's an impressive run for a company often viewed as the least sexy in Big Tech. 3 things in marketsInstagram/grandmabetty33The stock market is looking gray, and that's a bad thing. A famed economist said you shouldn't confuse a booming stock market with a strong economy. Nobel economist Paul Krugman recently wrote about how consumers feel too optimistic about the economy due to the current stock market rally.

Persons: —, Ethan Miller, Phil Rosen, OpenAI, Ashley Stewart, Tim Matsui, Ashley, That's, it's, It'll, aren't, We're, Taylor, Paul Krugman, Patrick Pleul, Mark Zuckerberg, Marc Benioff chatted, Brad Barket, Jon Stewart, Stewart, Trevor Noah, Donald Trump, Jean Carroll's Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Big, Rosenberg Research, AP Tesla, EV, Microsoft Windows, Walmart, Comedy Central, Bank of America, Intel, Visa, Southwest Airlines, Comcast Locations: Big Tech

☆ A Morningstar chief strategist details which parts of the stock market are still undervalued as indexes hit new records — plus 7 stocks with upside that fit the bill
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Right now, they are the most attractive part of the market, trading at a 25% discount, he noted. "Initially, small caps were hit the hardest during the early stages of the pandemic," Sekara said. "I think a lot of people just worried if those companies would actually survive the pandemic or not, just because as small-cap stocks, they didn't have the same financial wherewithal as large-cap stocks." AdvertisementWhy small caps now? AdvertisementBelow are seven stocks from Morningstar's list of small-cap value stocks with five-star ratings.

Persons: —, it's, Dave Sekara, Sekara, Morningstar Organizations: Service, Business, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Morningstar

☆ 10-year nominal is more important for the S&P than Fed funds discussion, says Citi's Scott Chronert
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email10-year nominal is more important for the S&P than Fed funds discussion, says Citi's Scott ChronertScott Chronert, Citi Research head of U.S. equity strategy, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what's happening with the relationship between bond yields and stocks, if it matters when and how many cuts the Federal Reserve makes, and Citi's overall S&P 500 target.

Persons: Citi's Scott Chronert Scott Chronert Organizations: Citi Research, Federal Reserve

☆ Stock market hits new high after 2 years, overcoming a nasty inflation period and surging rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The long wait between S & P 500 all-time highs is a friendly factor for forward performance, as far as historical observations go. John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors says, "It is OK to be bullish on the stock market (S & P 500) just not the market of stocks (everything else)," from a trend-following perspective. Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics calculates that the equal-weight S & P is one standard deviation cheap versus the market-cap-weighted index. Remarkably, the S & P 500 first pushed above 19-times forward earnings exactly four years ago, right before the Covid crash. Well, the S & P 500 has delivered an annualized total return near 11% in the four years since.

Persons: Ned Davis, Wayne Whaley, Whaley, I've, haven't, John Kolovos, Barry Knapp, Knapp, USTs, it's, hasn't Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Foresight, Federal, noncommittal, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Deutsche Bank

☆ US commercial real estate is suffering one of the steepest price declines in at least half a century, IMF warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Commercial real estate prices are in the midst of one of the biggest drops in the past half-century, the IMF said. AdvertisementUS commercial real estate prices are enduring one of the sharpest drop-offs in the last half-century, easily topping losses seen in previous rate-hike cycles, the International Monetary Fund said. Since the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike in March 2022, US commercial property prices have slumped by over 11%, the agency outlined in a blog post. "Some of the earlier rate hikes, though, such as in 2004-06, were subsequently followed by a recession during which commercial property prices recorded notable declines as demand fell." In one worst-case scenario, that could as much as $1 trillion in commercial real estate equity, according to Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick.

Persons: —, Andrea Deghi, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Federal, International Monetary, IMF

☆ Two important events this week could determine the future of Fed rate policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 19, 2024. A day later, the Commerce Department will release the December reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, a favorite Fed inflation gauge. "That's the thing that everybody should be watching to determine what the Fed's rate path will end up being," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said during an interview Friday on CNBC. On top of that, several of Goolsbee's colleagues, including Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, issued commentary indicating that at the very least they are in no hurry to cut even if the hikes are probably done. watch now"I don't like tying my hands, and we still have weeks of data," Goolsbee said.

Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Dow Jones, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Goolsbee Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters Markets, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Group, Christopher Waller , New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York City, U.S, Christopher Waller , New

☆ The 4 most important things we're watching in the stock market this coming week
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-20 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

Fortunately, we'll get useful information in the coming weeks as earnings season ramps up and updated inflation data is released. We really want to see more supply come into the market to provide some relief on shelter costs. Looking to next week, we'll get a several key economic updates and a ramp up of earnings releases. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, we'll, Procter & Gamble, we've, We're, we're, We'll, Forex, Brown, BRO, Zions, CrossFirst, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Horton, ERIC, Baker Hughes, Abbott, ABT, Clark, BOK, Monro, Simmons, United Community Banks, Lam, Ethan Allen Interiors, Raymond James Financial, Sherwin, Williams, Northrop, Murphy, Arthur J, Levi Strauss, LEVI, Booz Allen, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, John Gress Organizations: Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Bank of America, Reserve, Procter, Gross, Citigroup, of Hawaii, United Airlines, Logitech International S.A, AGNC Investment, Agilysys Inc, Great Southern Bancorp, Enterprise Financial Services, Independent Bank, Home Bancorp, RBB Bancorp, TrustCo Bank Corp, Gamble Co, Verizon Communications, 3M Company, General Electric Co, GE, RTX Corporation, Halliburton Company, HAL, Lockheed, Ericsson, Bank, GATX Corporation, MakeMyTrip, National Bancorp, Synchrony, Webster, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation, Invesco PLC, Peoples Bancorp Inc, Sandy Spring Bancorp, Netflix, Texas Instruments Incorporated, Steel Dynamics, Canadian National Railway Company, NBT Bancorp, East West Bancorp, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc, Hanmi, National Bank Holdings Corporation, Premier Financial, QCR Holdings, Renasant Corporation, Triumph, Veritex Holdings, ASML, SAP, Textron, Oriental Education, Technology Group, First BanCorp, General Dynamics, OFG Bancorp, Prosperity, TE Connectivity, United Community, Blue Foundry Bancorp, Capitol Federal, HBT, Teledyne Technologies, Business Machines, IBM, Las Vegas Sands Corp, Lam Research, United Rentals, Berkley Corp, Crown, International, Packaging Corporation of America, Seagate Technology plc, CACI, Swift Transportation Holdings, Ameriprise Financial, Concentrix Corporation, First Bank, Liberty Energy, Pathward Financial, Columbia Banking, CSX, American Airlines Group, NextEra Energy Inc, Alaska Air Group, Dow Chemical Co, Valero Energy, Southwest Airlines Co, Nextera Energy, Williams Co, Union Pacific, Applied Industrial Technologies, Mobileye, Northrop Grumman, Comcast, Nokia, TAL Education, McCormick & Company, Intel, Visa Inc, Gallagher, Co, KLA Corporation, Western Alliance, Mobile, L3Harris Technologies, Western, Olin Corporation, American Express Co, Booz, Booz Allen Hamilton Holding, Colgate, Palmolive Co, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Gamble's Locations: Procter &, U.S, China, ZION, Freeport, Kimberly, Las, W.R, Chicago

☆ This record-breaking market just keeps going higher and higher. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brendan Mcdermid | ReutersThe stock market keeps scaling new heights as investors focus on the good and ignore the bad, no matter how bad the bad parts might look sometimes. Prospects for a slowing economy, geopolitical unrest and turmoil in Washington aren't scaring market participants largely because none of those threats have turned into much in reality. As it has digested the various headwinds and tail winds, the market is pushing toward a record closing high. Along with commentary from multiple Fed officials, the tight labor market has taken some of the steam of out the market's anticipation for rate cuts this year. Where the market a week ago was nearly certain the Fed would start cutting in March and keep going with six more quarter percentage point moves this year, pricing shifted Friday.

Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Mitchell Goldberg, what's, Goldberg Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, ClientFirst, Juniper Networks, Nvidia, Devices, Traders, Group Locations: New York City, U.S, Washington, Big Tech

☆ Fed's Raphael Bostic expects rate cuts to happen in the third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic expects policymakers to start cutting rates in the third quarter of this year, saying Thursday that inflation is well on its way back to the central bank's goal. While the remarks help illuminate a timeline for rate cuts, they also serve as a reminder that Fed officials and market participants have different expectations about policy easing. The implied probability for a quarter percentage point reduction has decreased in recent days but still stood around 57% on Thursday morning. Pricing further indicates a total of six cuts this year, or one at every FOMC meeting but one from March forward. "In such an unpredictable environment, it would be unwise to lock in an emphatic approach to monetary policy," Bostic said.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic, he's Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Market, Commerce, Labor Department, CNBC PRO Locations: Atlanta, Washington

☆ Why it could be a 'lose-lose' situation for Wall Street when the Fed finally does cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street's outlook on Fed rate cuts is setting the stage for a "lose-lose situation," says Deutsche Bank macroeconomic strategist Henry Allen. Indeed, the last four times we've seen rate cuts that fast, it's been because of the most recent four U.S. recessions," he wrote. To be sure, rapid rate cuts without a preceding recession isn't an impossible scenario, but that doesn't mean it's likely either, Allen noted. Paul Volcker's chairmanship of the Fed in the 1980s, for example, saw steep rate cuts, although that followed a period of extremely restrictive monetary policy. "[It's] hard to see how both rate markets and risk markets can both continue to thrive as they have recently," Stanley said.

Persons: Henry Allen, Allen, Paul Volcker's, Allen isn't, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, Stocks, Deutsche Bank's Allen Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Markets, Federal, Traders, Santander U.S, Deutsche Locations: U.S, Vietnam

☆ Inflation is still a mixed bag, but markets don't care. They see big Fed rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.

Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red

☆ The stock market has cooled off to start 2024, but it's still checking most of the bull market boxes
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The small-cap Russell 2000 has dropped close to 4% against a fractional gain in the S & P 500 year to date. In broad terms, the S & P 500 could retreat to 4600 or so – about 4% down from here – and still be in a routine technical check-back to its latest launch point in early December. Todd Sohn of Strategas notes that the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) saw inflows go vertical last year to $13.5 billion, 30% above its prior 12-month record. Betting on 'peacetime' Fed cuts Right or wrong, the market debate right now can never get far before turning into a Fed-policy-path discussion. Last week's CPI and PPI data added to the market's collective conviction that inflation's downside momentum is strong, opening the way for "peacetime" Fed rate cuts.

Persons: that's, Russell, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, Tony Pasquariello, Goldman Sachs, Henry McVey, KKR's, McVey, Morgan Stanley, Todd Sohn, Strategas, they're, Jerome Powell Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Goldman, Nasdaq, Apple, CPI, PPI Locations: U.S

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