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Economic growth should persist in 2024, albeit at a weaker pace, according to top strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM). "We do see the savings rate — the recent savings rate — as unsustainably low, and we expect it to rise over time," said Brian Rose, a senior economist and investment strategist at UBS GWM, during the webinar. "And really, the base of the economy depends very heavily on what happens to the savings rate." Rose continued: "If the savings rate just gradually drifts higher over time, then we can have a soft landing. 33 top stocks across sectorsWhile UBS is constructive about 2024, its strategists think investors should prepare for anything.
Persons: Solita Marcelli, Brian Rose, Rose, there's, Marcelli, Daniel Scansaroli, Nicolas Le Roux, Le Roux, financials Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, US, UBS GWM, Federal Reserve, UBS GWM's, Companies Locations: Americas, Ukraine, Israel, Europe, China, Japan, Australia
Several large investment firms are writing off a recession in the US in 2024 as growth holds up and inflation steadily declines, but T. Rowe Price thinks that optimism may be misplaced. While T. Rowe Price doesn't have an official call on the economy, the brightest minds at the $1.4 trillion Baltimore-based firm urged investors to be cautious at a mid-November conference. However, T. Rowe Price is skeptical that the Fed will end its fight against inflation anytime soon. T. Rowe Price found that through October, those names rose 53.2% compared to a 1.2% year-to-date return for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500. Dom Rizzo, a portfolio manager of global technology equity strategy at T. Rowe Price, agreed that the Magnificent 7's momentum won't stop just because the group is pricey.
Persons: Rowe Price, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Rowe Price doesn't, We're, Tim Murray, Rowe Price's, Murray, We've, Rowe, Uruci, he's, it's, Tesla, let's, Dom Rizzo, Rizzo, septet, Santa, He's Organizations: Citi, UBS Global Wealth Management, Business, Federal Reserve, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, AMD Locations: Baltimore, Santa Clara
"It depends a lot on interest rates, and if they can remain where they're at, I think that's certainly a possibility," Keller said in a recent interview with Insider. Speaking of spot-on, Keller predicted in mid-September that the S&P 500 would fall to 4,100 if it broke below 4,350. "And a lot of S&P stocks are still down on the year, but that seems like it's starting to change." Its relative performance is also lacking , as the S&P 500 is up 17.3% in that span. Below are charts from Keller showing the strong technical setups of the S&P 500 and the four investments that he's especially bullish on now.
Persons: David Keller, Keller, it's, what's, Rowe Price, Russell, that's, Keller isn't, I'm, Don't, we're, he's Organizations: Business
Leading fund manager Kimberly Scott doesn't think a recession will kill the market's momentum. US stocks caught fire in late October and have now nearly recovered from a three-month-long selloff that started in August. Still, Scott said she expects the US economy to keep growing in 2024 as earnings growth accelerates once again. If price growth retreats to normal levels, Scott said growth-oriented stocks should outperform in 2024. 6 top stocks to own in 2024After sharing her optimistic view about earnings and the economy, Scott listed six stocks she's bullish on heading into 2024.
Persons: Kimberly Scott doesn't, Scott's, it's, Scott, Nathan Brown, Bradley Halverson, she's, Wall, They've Organizations: Business, Investors, Reserve, Delaware, Companies, Consumer
The top investing mind at Citi Global Wealth believes a long-awaited economic slowdown isn't around the corner — it's in the rearview mirror. Job creation is starting to slow , the investment chief noted, but lower interest rates could certainly change that. Higher earnings will be driven by lower wage growth and improved productivity from innovations like artificial intelligence, Bailin said. As for stocks, Bailin prefers funds tracking the equal-weight version of the S&P 500 as earnings rise across the board. Growth stocks have carried the market this year, and the investment chief said he continues to prefer the group to cyclicals despite his rosy economic outlook.
Persons: David Bailin, , Bailin, slowdowns, I've, Bailin doesn't, — they'll Organizations: Citi Global Wealth, Business, Investors, Federal Reserve, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Management
Would-be buyers remain out of luck as property prices steadily climb. The median US home cost $406,900 in Q3, which was 2.2% higher than last year, according to the NAR's Q3 US housing market report released on November 9. 25 cities where home prices receded in Q3Contrary to some pundits' predictions , property prices didn't crater due to lofty mortgage rates. Even more striking is that 11% of metropolitan areas saw prices grow by double digits, which was more than double the prior quarter's 5% rate. Thirty-eight metro areas saw prices fall from 2022 in Q3, and 25 of those saw significant drops of over 1%.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, Yun Organizations: National Association of Realtors, NAR, Homeowners Locations: Northeast, Midwest, West
Prepare for volatility and chaos in 2024Kupperman's confidence in his hedge fund is inversely related to his outlook for the economy. "Recent geopolitical events, along with the collapse of bonds in many developed markets, seem likely to lead to an increase in overall market volatility," Kupperman wrote in his letter. If he's right about inflation, his hedge fund would be well-positioned to beat the market for a fifth consecutive year in 2024. "I do the same thing always, which is you buy cheap companies with really strong tailwinds and you hold 'em through the volatility," Kupperman said. For the last 18 months, Kupperman has been convinced that the future is in two commodities: oil and uranium.
Persons: Harris Kupperman isn't, Kupperman, I'm, it's, Wall, Valaris Organizations: Praetorian, Fund, Praetorian Capital Management, US, Uranium Trust Fund, Valaris, Tidewater Locations: Tidewater
Investors shouldn't expect too many changes in 2024, according to the top investing minds at Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM). GSAM strategists suggested that investors are overlooking the risk that the conflicts cause a sharp slowdown. Higher bond yields usually reflect higher risk since investors demand better compensation for going out on a limb. But it's not just junk bonds that have enticing yields — Wilson-Elizondo said debt for investment-grade firms pays mid-single-digit rates despite boasting robust fundamentals. Sophisticated investors can enhance their returns further with private credit, which Wilson-Elizondo said can offer lofty yields of 11% to 12%.
Persons: they're, Alexandra Wilson, Elizondo, GSAM's, Ashish Shah, Shah, David Rosenberg, Wilson, Michael Bruun, it's, Goldman Sachs, Bruun, " Bruun, — Wilson Organizations: Investors, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Consumers, BSE, Nikkei Locations: GSAM, Israel, Ukraine, India, Japan, China
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are easy to love, but successfully navigating the space can be challenging — even for experienced investors. Like mutual funds, ETFs allow investors to own many stocks at once. For example, investors' returns can be meaningfully altered by relative moves of the US dollar. Within that group, just 15 ETFs had a Sortino ratio of over 1. The Sortino ratio evaluates a fund or ETF's returns on a risk-adjusted basis relative to its downside volatility, and any mark over 1 is seen as solid.
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard Organizations: Bank of America, BofA's Research Investment Locations: There's, foolproof, one's, Japan, India, Mexico
The 31-year market veteran has achieved enviable results since the start of 2005 while running the BNY Mellon Dynamic Value Fund (DAGVX) alongside co-manager Brian Ferguson. How to invest — and common mistakes to avoidLike all value fund managers, Bailer refuses to overpay for stocks — regardless of how enticing their businesses look. "It's a philosophy that's based on looking for stocks with great valuations, but not stopping with great valuations," Bailer said. Companies in the BNY Mellon Dynamic Value Fund must have both quality fundamentals and improving business momentum, Bailer said. The six largest stocks in the BNY Mellon Dynamic Value Fund were in one of two sectors, as of September 30: financials and healthcare.
Persons: John Bailer, Brian Ferguson, it's, Bailer, we've, headwinds, they've, he's, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Charlie Munger Organizations: Value Fund, Companies, Value, Firms, Berkshire, JPMorgan Locations: Berkshire
Stocks have rallied this week as optimism builds about earnings and interest rates. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets see the gains continuing through year-end. US stocks can continue their winning streak through the end of 2023, according to BMO Capital Markets. As expected, the Federal Reserve declined to raise interest rates at its November 1 meeting. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that higher long-term interest rates set by the market made another hike unnecessary, as Bill Adams, Comerica Bank's economy chief, recently noted.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, Comerica
Home values have held up this year despite historically high mortgage rates, but a new report from Realtor.com suggests that property prices could fall under pressure in the coming months. The firm said that price growth was flat — even as mortgage rates rose to a 23-year-high. Higher borrowing costs dampened demand, though it's possible homebuyers were worried that mortgage rates would soar even higher and wanted to buy before that could happen. Limited supply kept property prices afloat, as Realtor.com found that inventory fell 2% from October 2022. 13 cities where sellers are cutting pricesWhile listing prices are falling across the nation, the trend is especially noticeable in the South and Midwest.
Persons: Danielle Hale, Realtor.com, Hale, it's Locations: West, Midwest, Antonio , Texas, San Jose , California, Memphis , Tennessee, Dallas , Texas, Miami , Florida, South
The S&P 500 is down 7% since the start of September and briefly entered correction territory from its summer high last week. However, strategists say these threats are mostly priced into stocks, but higher earnings aren't. After three straight quarters of contracting profits, both BofA and UBS expect earnings to grow at least 3% year-over-year in Q3. "Within the context of our expectations for a continued choppy backdrop, we are incrementally more positive," Lerner wrote in a late October note. Truist's more constructive view on equities is based on strong results so far in Q3, Lerner wrote.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Savita Subramanian, Marcelli, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, Keith Lerner, Lerner, it's, Truist, Mark Haefele Organizations: Bank of America, UBS, Bank of America's, Equity, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Israel, Oppenheimer Asset Management Locations: Israel, Ukraine, Truist, Real, Charlotte
His foreign-focused, large-cap growth fund is in the top 9% of its category in 2023 with a 4.8% gain compared to a 0.5% loss for its index, according to Morningstar. "And so we don't recalibrate the portfolio much year in, year out or rebalance it for different macro outlooks." Target top-of-the-line stocks, but pay a fair priceUnlike many other managers, Erickson only allows a few dozen stocks in his fund. 8 top investments to make nowMany US-based investors avoid international stocks entirely since the prevailing narrative is that the group is risky, given its heightened exposure to geopolitical conflict. International stocks in four sectors look especially promising right now, Erickson said: consumer discretionary, consumer staples, healthcare, and information technology.
Persons: Elias Erickson, he's, Morningstar, Erickson, We're, It's, there's Organizations: Companies, SAP, Mastercard Locations: New York
Media analysts widely expect the league to select at least three distributors for its next media rights deal after the current setup expires in 2025. Comcast's NBCUniversal could be a frontrunner for a spot in the NBA's new media deal alongside Amazon, Nispel said. NBA players could be poised to earn sky-high paydaysThe NBA's last media deal — the $24 billion contract it struck in 2014 — was nearly triple the value of its previous pact. The pressure is now on the NBA to deliver a media deal that satisfies teams, athletes, and fans. Still, Macquarie media analyst Tim Nollen is optimistic about the size of the NBA's next media rights deal.
Persons: Jessica Reif Ehrlich, disruptors, Brandon Nispel, Nispel, , Shirin Malkani, who's, Perkins, Leron Rogers, that's, Mark Patricof, Tim Nollen, Nollen, Reif Ehrlich, Ehrlich Organizations: NBA, Media, ESPN, Warner Bros, TNT, Disney, Apple, NBC, Comcast, Wall Street, Bank of America, NFL, MLB, NHL, KeyBanc Capital, Amazon, Flagship, ABC, Prime, Industry, Patricof, Macquarie, Diamond Sports
"Based upon the economic data that I've seen and what you read and hear about, I do not expect there to be a recession," Pounardjian said in a recent interview with Insider. And what happens, of course — there's not a recession," Pounardjian said. 8 ways to bet on strong consumer spendingWhile many of his fellow portfolio managers ditched stocks, Pounardjian stayed calm last year and kept his clients' money in markets. "The baby gets thrown out with the bathwater, and the market shoots first and asks questions later," Pounardjian said of consumer stocks. Below are eight stocks in the consumer staples sector that are held by Pounardjian, his clients, or both.
Persons: Razmig Pounardjian, Pounardjian, We've, There's, it's, Derek Thompson Organizations: Bulls, Carnegie Investment, The
Rent is rising at a slower pace in the US and is even declining outright in some markets. Here are two dozen US cities where rent was at least 5% lower this month compared to October 2022. Rent growth continues to decline across the country, and in dozens of cities, apartments are cheaper now than they were last year. The one-bedroom unit's month-over-month drop was the largest of 2023, Zumper researchers noted. Only a quarter of the nation's 100 largest markets saw one-bedroom prices rise from the prior month compared to 59 that fell and 16 that were flat.
Persons: they've Locations: Zumper
Growth will wilt under the pressure of perpetually high interest rates, Chiavarone said, though he added that rolling recessions across industries are more likely than a sudden, 2008-style downturn. Higher-for-longer interest rates are the biggest threat to the US economy, Chiavarone said. Goldman SachsEighteen months of tightening financial conditions will have a profound impact on the economy, Chiavarone said. The multi-asset solutions head is watching how corporations respond next year when they're forced to refinance debt at much higher rates. Since they have plenty of cash on hand, these companies aren't reliant on external financing and can avoid exposure to lofty interest rates.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Steve Chiavarone, Hermes, Chiavarone, it's, they're Organizations: Federated Hermes, Treasury, Federated, Federal, Fed, Companies, Consumer, Vanguard Consumer, ETF, Healthcare, Utilities, Vanguard Utilities
Rent is steadily sliding in the US, but great deals on apartments are still few and far between. A new report from Realtor.com revealed that rent growth was negative for the fifth straight month in September. That problem is slowly getting addressed as 445,000 new multi-family units come online, though they're selling very quickly. Nearly 70% of new affordable apartments got filled within three months of completion in the second quarter compared to a 57.2% rate for more expensive units, Realtor.com found. The trend was pronounced across all the four major US regions, though less pricey Midwest markets had the most dramatic rise in so-called absorption rates of new rental units.
Persons: Realtor.com, Realtor.com's Jiayi Xu, Danielle Hale, Xu, Hale, shouldn't Organizations: shouldn't Locations: Midwest, Austin , Texas, California, San Francisco, Los Angeles
"We continue to believe this bull market is alive and well," wrote Brian Belski, the chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, in an October 18 note. Just over a year ago, the S&P 500 snapped out of a 25% downturn that began in early 2022. "While this one-year gain is certainly not impressive by bull market standards, we believe it is notable since many entered the year prognosticating doom-and-gloom for US stocks," Belski wrote. Don't expect a second-year slump for stocksAll eyes are now on the S&P 500 as it enters the second year of a bull market. BMO Capital Markets22 buy-rated stocks to target nowStock-picking will be increasingly important if the S&P 500 falls under pressure, in BMO's view.
Persons: Brian Belski, Belski Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, BMO Capital, BMO Locations: Montreal
Even the market's most serious risks likely won't derail the economy, according to the brain trust at $1.3 trillion Ameriprise Financial. The S&P 500 should score a mid- to high-single-digit gain next year, Saglimbene told Insider, if earnings grow as expected. So there's some risk that valuations are going to have to come in, and that path for interest rates is very important." Popular small-cap ETFs include the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) and the Schwab US Small-Cap ETF (SCHA) while the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund ETF (VGK) and WisdomTree Europe Small-Cap Dividend ETF (DFE) also might fit with Ameriprise's projections. "At the same time, we'll have yields that are at some of the highest levels we've seen since the financial crisis.
Persons: Russell Price, Price, he's, Ameriprise's Anthony Saglimbene, Justin Burgin, Saglimbene, Burgin, There's, we've, Russell, Ameriprise, weren't Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Saglimbene, Schwab, Vanguard, Index Fund, Fed Locations: Israel, Europe
Investors shouldn't be scared off by slower economic growth caused by higher-for-longer interest rates and inflation, according to JPMorgan Asset Management (JPMAM). For reference, JPMAM called for forward long-term returns of 4.3% in 2021. The firm added that productivity gains from AI will likely add a tenth of a percentage point to global growth in the next decade. The long-awaited reversal for international stocks won't happen overnight, JPMAM strategists said. The firm is highly optimistic about the asset class after its brutal multi-year selloff and expects 4.6% and 5.1% long-term returns for those groups, respectively.
Persons: it's, JPMAM, David Kelly, Kelly, Monica Issar, Grace Koo, , they're, Bob Michele, who's, he's, Bonds, REITs Organizations: Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, US, JPMorgan, Management, Fed, JPMorgan Asset Management, Investors Locations: Europe, Australasia, Real
Investors took note and scrambled to get exposure to AI stocks, many of which are among this year's top performers. Top investment firms like Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS told clients this summer that AI is worth the hype. 11 high-upside AI stocks with dividendsThere's no shortage of ideas about how to profit from AI, as Insider has noted throughout 2023. Bank of America recently put together a list of 164 buy-rated stocks across industries that are tied to AI. Below are those 11 high-upside, stable-dividend stocks with AI exposure and a buy rating from Bank of America along with the ticker, market capitalization, previous close, sector, industry, and country for each.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Alkesh Shah, Shah Organizations: Bank of America, UBS, Robotics, Intelligence, Technology, US
Despite a recent hiccup, growth stocks are in style as concerns about the US economy persist. Growth stocks may generate earnings quickly, but that doesn't mean stock-pickers should rush to sell them — even after letdowns like a disappointing quarter. Every stock in the 52-year-old growth fund has tailwinds like sustainable earnings growth and defendable competitive advantages, Humphrey said. Valuation is an afterthought for some growth managers, but not those on Humphrey's team. Along with Meta Platforms (META), the USAA Victory Growth Fund's top holdings include streaming media titan Netflix (NFLX) and communications conglomerate Alphabet (GOOGL).
Persons: It's, Lance Humphrey, Humphrey Organizations: Growth, Victory Capital Management, Companies, Federal Reserve, Meta, Netflix, Biotech, Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Aspiring homebuyers won't like what Goldman Sachs has to say about the housing market. Home prices will likely end this year up 1.8% before accelerating by 3.5% in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs' latest projections. By contrast, some cities in the West and Southwest saw prices plunge after soaring significantly during the pandemic. Ten of these metropolitan areas saw outsized property price growth while the other half saw prices decline from 2022. Along with each city is its year-over-year growth, total and annualized price growth since 2000, and median price.
Persons: homebuyers, Goldman Sachs, Roger Ashworth, Goldman, Corelogic, Ashworth Locations: Goldman Sachs, West, Southwest, Denver , Colorado
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