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Many Americans have been holding back from jumping into the housing market in the hopes that mortgage rates will decline. The average 30-year mortgage rate has been above 6% for two years — and is likely to stay above that level for the foreseeable future, experts say. “Sixes are the new normal,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a mortgage listing services group, referring to 6% mortgage rates. It’s really not going to be impacting mortgage rates at all.”Mortgage rates work differently. When demand for those increases, mortgage rates tend to fall.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, , Lisa Sturtevant, Brian Rehling, Trump, Mike Fratantoni, ” Fratantoni, Helene, ” Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Sturtevant, “ It’s Organizations: Federal, Bright MLS, Federal Reserve, Wells, Investment Institute, , U.S, Mortgage, Association, , National Association of Realtors, Pantheon, NBC
Trump has promised to do a variety of different things on "Day One" of his second term. "​​Many things will be done on day one," Trump said at a town hall with Tucker Carlson in Phoenix in late October. Trump has promised to issue several executive orders when he takes office, though some of them are likely to be challenged in court. "Day One" promises that Trump may not be able to fulfillSome "day one" commitments are simply not possible. AdvertisementAt times during the campaign, Trump pledged to "end inflation" just hours after taking office.
Persons: Trump, , Donald Trump's, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Jack Smith, pardoning, Smith, Hugh Hewitt, Gary Gensler, Gensler, Biden Organizations: Service, Social Security, White, American Civil Liberties Union, Republican, Department, Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Phoenix, Wisconsin
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, the billionaire backer of newly minted President-elect Donald Trump, endorsed the idea of allowing presidents to intervene on Federal Reserve policy. Though brief, Musk's comment reflects a broader pressure campaign on Fed independence that could take shape in the next Trump administration. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he would not resign from his post if Trump asked him to do so. But during his first term in office, Trump was not shy about breaking from tradition and publicly disparaging Powell and his policy decisions. Over the course of the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump also often flirted with the idea of giving himself a say in Fed policy if he were to win the White House again.
Persons: Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Tesla, Sen, Mike Lee, Musk, Lee, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Republican, SpaceX, Fed, White, Federal Reserve Locations: Butler , Pennsylvania, Utah, U.S, Lago, Florida
For one, the market was already in a sturdy uptrend, the S & P ahead by 20% in 2024 by October. Now, the S & P is up 44% in the past 18 months and the P/E is above 22 on more elevated margins. Here's the S & P 500 Value vs Growth relationship since 2014. His call is for investors to fade any near-term rally that takes the S & P above his 6100 "bull case" target for year end. For sure, the S & P 500 is by some measures running a bit hot, pushing above the top end of its two-year bull-market path.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jay Powell, Trump, Cyclicals, Russell, YTD, Doug Ramsey, we're, reflating, Scott Chronert, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Republican, Trump Trade, Federal, Treasury, financials, Nasdaq, Group, Investment, Trump, Russell, Citi Locations: upending Washington, U.S, year's
Incumbent governments have been punished in Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere. The near-universal shift away from Democrats echoes voters' rejection of incumbent political parties across the world this year. South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority. Similarly, Deutsche Bank's Reid wrote that voters are disappointed by how slowly their lives are improving amid cooler economic growth. He said they don't buy that incumbents can tackle immigration, some incumbent governments have had scandals, and voters have become "much more willing to change their vote from election to election."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, , Donald Trump, Biden, Harris, Narendra Modi, Korea's Democrat Party snagged, Jim Reid, Tina Fordham, Louis Perron, Deutsche Bank's Reid Organizations: Service, Democratic, Britain's Labour Party, Conservative Party, Rally, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, Indian, Korea's Democrat Party, National Congress, ANC, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Bank of England, European Central Bank, CNN, Win, Deutsche Locations: Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, London, Tokyo, Seoul, Cape Town, Washington, Gaza, country's, South, Ukraine
“So if you’re going to hate us, then we’re going to do what we want.”What is the 4B movement? The 4B movement was decentralized and existed in various iterations online and offline, making it difficult to assess its true size and scale. “And we see each other.”The US election is inspiring conversation around 4BIt’s far too early to tell whether the 4B movement might seriously catch on in the US. Some are skeptical 4B will catch onIn Han’s view, the 4B movement is unlikely to become mainstream in the US. “I could definitely see it fueling change in some way.”Han predicts that American interest in the 4B movement will subside quickly.
Persons: Donald Trump, there’s, , ” Ashli Pollard, Louis, Ju Hui Judy Han, Ahn Young, Han, “ It’s, ” Han, Pollard, wasn’t, , Alexa Vargas, , Abby K, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s, Hillary Clinton’s, Hadia, hasn’t, don’t, Leda Joy Abkenari Organizations: CNN, Young, University of California, Organisation for Economic Co, OECD, Trump Locations: United States, TikTok, Korean, St, South Korea, Los Angeles, Seoul, Gangham, Boston, Florida, America
The attention on potential Supreme Court vacancies has so far been driven entirely by forces outside the court – and rampant speculation based on a series of murky clues and past practices. “No questions could even be raised about their physical or mental health.”Ed Whelan, a former Supreme Court clerk and legal commentor, said he agreed with Leo’s take. The process of moving a Supreme Court nominee takes considerable time – often several months. The Supreme Court did not respond to a request for comment. It is also fairly common when a new administration comes to town to talk about these things.”’CNN Chief Supreme Court Analyst Joan Biskupic contributed to this report.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito –, Sonia Sotomayor, Joe Biden, Trump, “ Alito, Mike Davis, Stephen Breyer, Biden’s, , Bill Clinton, Thomas, Alito, Leonard Leo, Charles Cooper, scoffed, ” Cooper, ” Ed Whelan, Leo’s, ” Whelan, Davis, Leo, ” Davis, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Amy Coney Barrett, Roe, Wade, Ginsburg, Sotomayor, Barack Obama’s, Biden, John Roberts, George W, Bush, Breyer, Anthony Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, , Andrew Oldham, Neomi Rao –, Judge James Ho, Martha, Ann Alito, Washington –, Ann Alito’s, Martha Alito, Roberts, Josh Blackman, ” ’, Joan Biskupic Organizations: CNN, III, Supreme, GOP, Trump, DC Circuit, Circuit, Washington, South Texas College of Law Houston, ” ’ CNN Locations: Washington, Trump, New Orleans, Virginia, New Jersey
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's a fraught time in terms of economic policy, says Roger FergusonFormer Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate cut decision this week, takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's commentary, post-election outlook for the Fed, and more.
Persons: Roger Ferguson, takeaways Organizations: Roger Ferguson Former Federal, Fed
Kent Nishimura | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said. — CNBC's Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound and Alex Harring contributed to this report.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, , Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: FTSE, Federal, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: GDAXI, Washington, Washington , DC
U.S. government bond yields have surged too, puzzling many market participants. I am going to stick with the contrarian view and bet on rates continuing to move higher. I'll express that through a bearish bet on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) which tracks bond prices. Various inputs have driven yields higher, creating the opposite outcome for the Fed as they continue to try to land the proverbial plane. Jeffrey Gundlach stated (post Fed meeting) that interest rates could shoot even higher if Republicans end up controlling the House too.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jeffrey Gundlach, Jerome Powell, TLT Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury Bond ETF, Fed, Treasury, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Fed may skip December rate cut, says FedWatch's Ben Emons
  + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed may skip December rate cut, says FedWatch's Ben EmonsBen Emons, FedWatch Advisors, joins 'Fast Money' to talk what's ahead for the Federal Reserve.
Persons: FedWatch's Ben Emons Ben Emons Organizations: FedWatch Advisors, Federal Reserve
Inflation data in the week ahead could determine whether a stock market that surged to all-time highs after Donald Trump 's decisive victory can continue to push higher. Meanwhile, the October producer price index, which excludes shelter, is set to have risen 0.3%, consensus estimates show, up from a 0.0% reading the prior month. Initial Claims (11/09) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (October) Earnings: Applied Materials , Walt Disney Friday, Nov. 15 8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (October) 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (October) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Donald Trump, Hogan, We've, Nancy Tengler, Bitcoin, Harker, Tyson, Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Riley Wealth Management, FactSet, Laffer, Investments, Trump, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, Philadelphia Reserve, Carnegie Mellon, Occidental Petroleum, Nation Entertainment, Tyson Foods, Mosaic, Treasury Budget NSA, Cisco Systems, Walt Disney, Price, Retail, Manufacturing Locations: China, U.S
Luxury brands face uncertainty after Donald Trump won the US presidential election. His victory spells trouble for the sector's hopes of a comeback in China. AdvertisementAmerica has elected a new president, paving an uncertain future for luxury brands looking to boost sales in China. Tariffs further complicate luxury's China issuesChina has been a reliable cash cow for luxury brands for decades. AdvertisementNationalism's rise doesn't play well for luxuryTrump's return to the White House is a signal of a wider issue facing luxury brands — rising nationalism.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Trump, Jelena Sokolova, Martin Roll, they'll, Cheng Xin, Gary Ng, Ng, Daniel Langer, Justin Sullivan, It's Organizations: Service, America, Beijing, Morningstar, Trump, McKinsey, Pepperdine University Locations: China, outflows, Russia, Europe
Hyman: The Fed's in a good spot, and the soft landing is in hand
  + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHyman: The Fed's in a good spot, and the soft landing is in handSimeon Hyman of ProShares discusses why small-caps are still primed for gains, even they continue to trail the broader market.
Persons: Hyman, Simeon Hyman, ProShares
Powell to Trump: Go ahead, make my day
  + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
That’s essentially what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is experiencing with President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House. When a reporter asked the Fed chair if he’d resign if Trump asked him to, Powell didn’t miss a beat. Removing a Fed chair isn’t so simpleIf Trump, or any president for that matter, were to try to remove a Fed chair, they would encounter a steep uphill battle. Ultimately, the Supreme Court could have the final say on what merits a “for cause” firing of a Fed chair. Trump has tried testing the limits anywayNevertheless, Trump threatened to fire Powell on several occasions when he was first president.
Persons: That’s, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump’s, Trump, he’d, Powell didn’t, , , curtly, ” Powell, Powell, won’t, Powell doesn’t, Joe Biden, ” Trump Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Trump, Republican, Bloomberg, Economic, of Chicago Locations: New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMester: The Fed may have some time to adjust monetary policy to fiscal policy changesFormer Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester discusses the path forward for the Fed, both on determing how far to cut rates, and respond to potentially reflationary policies by the incoming Trump administration.
Persons: Loretta Mester, Trump Organizations: Cleveland Fed, Fed
Skyscrapers on the skyline in the financial district of Frankfurt, Germany, on Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. European markets were expected to open in mixed territory on Friday, as investors awaited corporate results and reacted to quarter-point interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England. It comes as market participants continue to take in political upheaval in Germany and Donald Trump's historic presidential election victory this week. Elsewhere, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Friday, with investors closely monitoring the final day of China's National People's Congress, which is expected to announce fiscal stimulus measures. On Wall Street, U.S. stock futures gained marginally after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched fresh records in a post-election rally.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Donald Trump's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Linder, Scholz Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, France's CAC, IG, People's Congress, Nasdaq Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Asia, Pacific, U.S
People visit a riverside in front of the Lujiazui financial district, during the National People's Congress (NPC) in Shanghai, China, March 7, 2023. Aly Song | ReutersAsia-Pacific markets were set to climb on Tuesday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and major U.S. indexes continued their postelection rally. In Japan, the country will be releasing spending data for September, which will offer clues to the policy path ahead for the Bank of Japan. Strong spending data would support the case for the BOJ to raise rates, and vice versa. If stocks follow futures, the Hong Kong index will hit its highest level in about a month.
Persons: Aly Song, Australia's Organizations: National People's Congress, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, China's National People Congress, Bank of Japan, Nikkei Locations: Shanghai, China, Reuters Asia, Pacific, U.S, Asia, Japan, Chicago, Osaka, Hong Kong
Treasury yields have ripped higher of late, even as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield has soared nearly 70 basis points to 4.3% since mid-September, when the Fed cut rates by a half-point. Despite the Fed's latest action, the incoming Trump administration is likely to keep yields elevated, according to Ned Davis Research. Dimitrova noted that rising debt-to-GDP ratio has been closely linked with higher bond yields. The question for investors now is: How long until higher yields start putting pressure on equities?
Persons: Trump, Ned Davis, Veneta, Dimitrova, Goldman Sachs, BNTX Organizations: Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research
Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Friday as investors considered the outlook for interest rates and the economy after the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut decision. Treasury yields had tumbled on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%. The Fed began easing rates at its previous meeting in September with a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction. One Fed meeting remains on the agenda for this year on December 17 to 18, for which traders were last pricing in an around 75% chance of another rate cut, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Federal Reserve, Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigher budget deficit isn't a top concern given strong U.S. economy and dollar's central roleTodd Jablonski from Principal Global Investors says while Trump's economic policies may push up inflation, the Fed can counter balance that with monetary policy.
Persons: Todd Jablonski Organizations: Global Investors
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, the Fed cutting interest rates yesterday was never really in doubt . Additional rate cuts aren't as clear, though, as Donald Trump's proposed widespread tariffs could slow down the Fed's plans . The market is indicating inflation could lead the Fed to keep borrowing rates high. AdvertisementGreg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, told Insider Today that Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't indicate a pause in cuts was coming in December during Thursday's press conference.
Persons: , MANDEL NGAN, Chelsea Jia Feng, Donald Trump's, Paul Krugman, It's, Chip Somodevilla, Greg McBride, Jerome Powell didn't, Powell, McBride, There's, Dominique Lapointe, Lapointe, Trump, ANGELA WEISS, Morningstar, Trump's, Dave Sekera, Goldman execs, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Donald Trump, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Elon Musk, David Zaslav, Zaslav, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Ella Hopkins, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, Getty Images, BI, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Manulife Investment Management, Morningstar, Elon, Trump, Keystone State, Big Tech's, Walmart, Target, Costco, Big Media, Warner Bros, Discovery, Paramount, Sony Locations: AFP, China, Pennsylvania, New York, London
The Fed may have declared inflation victory too early, Stanley Druckenmiller said. Inflation could could be bottoming right now, the billionaire investor told a Norges Bank podcast. "I'm a little worried that the Fed has declared victory too early," the billionaire investor said about consumer prices on a Norges Bank podcast. When inflation eases, the Fed lowers rates to make sure economic growth keeps up — and has justified its cuts given shifting labor prints. AdvertisementThough the podcast was recorded prior to the president-elect's victory, Druckenmiller cited that Trump's tariff plans are marginally inflationary.
Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, , Stanley Druckenmiller isn't, Druckenmiller, Donald Trump Organizations: Norges Bank, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Trump
Home Depot could be a beneficiary of the Federal Reserve's latest rate cutting cycle, according to Telsey Advisory Group. The investment firm upgraded shares of the home improvement retailer to outperform from market perform ahead of Home Depot's third-quarter earnings release on Tuesday. Analyst Joseph Feldman also lifted his price target to $455 from $360, which implies upside of 14% from Thursday's close. As a catalyst, Feldman cited upcoming Fed rate cuts. Home Depot shares are up more than 15% year to date.
Persons: Joseph Feldman, Feldman, Hurricanes Helene Organizations: Advisory, Fed, Traders, Hurricanes, Home Depot Locations: Thursday's, Milton
But that doesn’t mean as a result interest rates are now low — or will soon be low. “‘Falling interest rates’ are not the same as ‘low interest rates.’ Interest rates are high and will only decline to ‘not as high’ as … we move into 2025,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. Credit cards: Just before the Fed cut its key rate in September, the average credit card rate was 20.78%, according to Bankrate. Another option: Try transferring your balance to a credit card from a credit union or local bank. Before the Fed’s September rate cut many of those accounts were offering yields between 4.25% and 5.3%, according to those listed on Bankrate.com.
Persons: , Greg McBride, Matt Schulz, Chris Diodato, they’re, Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, ” McBride, Sinead Colton Grant, Colton Grant, , Don’t, Diodato, you’re, BNY, they’ve Organizations: CNN, Reserve, Bankrate, Fed, LendingTree, Treasury, Savings Locations: Treasuries
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