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An AI-driven stock market bubble could burst early if Trump wins the 2024 election, according to Capital Economics. Trump's proposed policies on tariffs and immigration could slow economic growth and spark higher inflation, the firm said. Higher inflation would restrict the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. AdvertisementThe ongoing stock market bubble that has been inflated by a strong rally in AI stocks could pop prematurely if former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election. A second Trump Presidency "could potentially result in the imposition of universal tariffs and reductions in immigration," Higgins said.
Persons: Trump's, , Donald Trump, John Higgins, Higgins, Trump Organizations: Trump, Capital Economics, Service, Trump Presidency, Federal Reserve
See How Your Subway Service May Suffer Without Congestion PricingAfter Gov. Here are some of the subway projects the authority says it has shelved:Work has been suspended on the expansion of the Second Avenue subway. Improvements have been postponed at nearly 100 subway stations, including new elevator and ramp installations, platform replacements and upgrades to public announcement systems. A map shows a dot for each of the affected subway stations across four of the five boroughs, with Staten Island out of frame. Below is a list of the subway stations where upgrades have been put on hold, based on what the M.T.A.
Persons: Kathy Hochul, Hoyt, Schermerhornt Organizations: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Metropolitan Transportation Locations: New York, North America, Manhattan, Upper Manhattan, York, Brooklyn, Queens, New York City, Staten
A veteran analyst says AI is unproven, and stocks such as Nvidia are in a bubble and could wither. Ferguson sees shades of the dot-com bubble, warning Nvidia might lose its edge like Intel and Cisco did. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementArtificial intelligence is still just a pricey experiment, AI stocks are in a dangerous bubble, and Nvidia might wither like dot-com darlings Intel and Cisco, according to a markets guru. Ferguson recommended investors diversify their portfolios away from large-cap US growth stocks to limit their exposure if the tech bubble bursts.
Persons: MacroStrategy's James Ferguson, Ferguson, , James Ferguson, Merryn, I'm, It's Organizations: Nvidia, Intel, Cisco, Service, MacroStrategy, Tech
In 2022, Delta Air Lines offered passengers $10,000 cash to take a different flight after overselling a flight from Michigan to Minnesota amid the summer's post-pandemic travel chaos. DOT rules entitle passengers to hundreds of dollars in compensation if they are involuntarily bumped from a flight, under certain terms and conditions. How to lower the odds of getting bumped from a flightThere's nothing you can do to guarantee you won't get bumped from an overbooked flight, as one traveler who said he was bumped off an American Airlines flight learned the hard way. According to the DOT's 2023 consumer air travel data, Allegiant Air, Delta Air Lines, and Hawaiian Airlines involuntarily bumped 0, 3, and 5 people, respectively, over the entire year. On the other end of the spectrum, American Airlines and Frontier Airlines involuntarily bumped over 10,000 passengers each in 2023.
Persons: , Hurricane Beryl, Tayfun, doesn't, Constantine Johnny Organizations: Service, Transportation Security Administration, Business, Airlines, US Department of Transportation, Delta Air Lines, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Passengers, American Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, American Airlines and Frontier Airlines Locations: Texas, Michigan, Minnesota
The stock market will continue to hit record highs driven by reasonable valuations and continued earnings growth, according to Ed Yardeni. AdvertisementThe record rally in the stock market isn't close to being over, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Forward earnings expectations riseAnalysts' forward earnings expectations hit a record high last week, illustrating that the market rally is supported by what matters the most: profits. Market breadth will improveWhile the stock market rally has been driven mostly by a concentrated handful of companies, improving earnings breadth should lead to improving market breadth, according to Yardeni. There's a lot of companies that are benefiting from AI," Yardeni said.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, , Yardeni, Corning, let's Organizations: Service, CNBC
Some key inflation readings in the week ahead could bolster the case for a September interest rate cut, as investors deliberate how long stocks can sustain their rally to record highs. After a rocky start to the year, a recently improving inflation picture has investors hopeful the Federal Reserve could soon start to lower rates. Stubborn inflation patches The June consumer price index is expected to show a slight improvement in the headline number. In May, for example, shelter inflation rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% on the year, while other key items declined. Monday, July 8 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (May) Tuesday, July 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (June) Wednesday, July 10 10 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (May) Thursday, July 11 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (June) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Mark Malek, FactSet, there's, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, David Kelly, CNBC's, Wells, Price, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CPI, PPI, FactSet, University of Michigan, Asset Management, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Consumer Credit, Treasury Budget, Air Lines, Conagra, JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan, Fastenal
Read previewNASA has confirmed that a hunk of space junk as big as a car hood found in North Carolina belonged to a SpaceX Dragon Capsule, according to an agency statement shared on X. AdvertisementDebris from the Dragon Capsule landed in the middle of a train at the Glamping Collective, a mountaintop resort in North Carolina. Photos by Brett Tingley, courtesy of the Glamping CollectiveA similar chunk of Dragon trunk was found in Franklin, North Carolina in June. It's when space debris free-falls toward Earth with no one controlling its course. Even though this space debris is relatively small compared to, say, car-sized satellites, it's not harmless.
Persons: , Justin Clontz, Space.com, Brett Tingley, It's, landers, Moriba Jah, Jah, Jonathan McDowell, McDowell, it's Organizations: Service, NASA, SpaceX, International Space, Business, International Space Station, United Nations Office, Outer Space Affairs, Aerospace Engineering, Engineering Mechanics, The University of Texas, Harvard, Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Aerospace Corporation, Federal Government Locations: North Carolina, Asheville, Franklin , North Carolina, Saskatchewan, Canada, Florida, Austin, Asheville , North Carolina
Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting indicated that inflation is moving in the right direction but not quickly enough for them to lower interest rates, minutes released Wednesday showed. "Participants affirmed that additional favorable data were required to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent," the meeting summary said. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation, a level it has been above since early in 2021. Since the meeting, officials have largely stuck to a cautious script stressing data dependency rather than forecasts. However, there have been indications from multiple officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, that continued encouraging readings on inflation would provide confidence that rates can be lowered.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Open Market, Fed Locations: Portugal
5 Minutes That Will Make You Love Wayne Shorter
  + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Marcus J. Moore | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
This month we feature Wayne Shorter, the iconoclastic composer and tenor saxophonist whose work with Art Blakey, Miles Davis, Weather Report and through his own solo discography has influenced generations of like-minded visionaries to push the boundaries of jazz. As a member of the quintet, Shorter once said, “it wasn’t the bish-bash, sock-’em-dead routine we had with Blakey, with every solo a climax. “All of us wrote some songs, I wrote a couple of things myself, but the main writer: Wayne,” Hancock told me over the phone recently. But most of the things we recorded were written by Wayne.” The quintet broke up in 1968; Shorter worked with Davis until 1970. In recent years, even though they’d been collaborators for several decades, Hancock and Shorter became best friends.
Persons: Wayne Shorter, Art Blakey, Miles Davis, it’s, Miles, Shorter, Herbie Hancock, Ron Carter, Tony Williams —, Davis “, , Ian Carr, Blakey, ” Shorter, Wayne, ” Hancock, , Charlie Parker, Dizzy Gillespie, Davis, Joe Zawinul, Hancock, they’d
Enthusiasm for AI will drive the S&P 500 to 7,000 by next year, Capital Economics forecasts. The firm says AI is a market bubble that will inflate through 2025. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . While the AI market mania has drawn comparisons to the 2000's dot-com bubble, some have dismissed the analogy, noting that today's AI benefactors are nowhere near as overvalued as early internet counterparts.
Persons: , Neil Shearing, Shearing, MIT's Daron Acemoglu, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Capital Economics
America has a serious ugly home problem
  + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +14 min
Recently she posted a video on her YouTube channel in which she phrased the question more bluntly: "Why are homes so 'ugly' now?" Most people agree that America needs more houses, but nobody seems all that thrilled with the ones being built. Related storiesThe blame for America's architectural nightmare, however, doesn't stop at production builders, rising costs, or local codes. Homes look this way because they're not just places where we live — they're also supposed to help us get rich. As they stare down these rising costs, builders and architects have almost no choice but to streamline or opt for cheaper design elements.
Persons: Bailey McInnes, McInnes, they're, James Wentling, John Burns, Peter Dennehy, They're, Dan Reynolds, Horton, Lennar, Kate Wagner, she's, , Wagner, Marcia Straub, William Morgan, it's, Queen Anne Organizations: HGTV, YouTube, Facebook, Builders, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Association of Home Builders, John Burns Research, Consulting, Harvard's, for Housing Studies, Harvard, The Locations: Northern Virginia, America, homebuilding, Providence , Rhode Island
David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesThe U.S. stock market has become dominated by about a handful of companies in recent years. Some experts question whether that "concentrated" market puts investors at risk, though others think such fears are likely overblown. The so-called "Magnificent Seven" — Apple , Amazon , Alphabet , Meta , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla — make up about 31% of the index, it said. Why stock concentration may not be a concernThe S&P 500 tracks stock prices of the 500 largest publicly traded companies. When there were big market crashes, they generally don't appear to have been associated with stock concentration, he added.
Persons: Jensen Huang, David Paul Morris, Morgan Stanley, Charlie Fitzgerald III, John Rekenthaler, Rekenthaler, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton, We've, Goldman Sachs, Fitzgerald, Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo, Charlie Fitzgerald Organizations: Nvidia Corp, Blackwell, Nvidia, Technology, Bloomberg, Getty, Microsoft, Tesla, U.S, Finance, Morningstar, Big U.S, Goldman, Goldman Sachs Research Locations: Orlando , Florida, U.S, Switzerland, France, Australia, Germany, South Korea, United Kingdom, Taiwan, Canada
Read previewAfter Big Tech's meteoric rise in the stock market, valuations may be coming back down to earth. Elevated Big Tech valuationsThe stock market is incredibly narrow, with just a few mega-cap tech stocks driving the market rally. Overall, the tech sector has risen by roughly 40% since November 2023. AdvertisementTruistAccording to Lerner, tech valuations are overheating in the short term, fueled by investor optimism. The tech sector's forward P/E has increased 19% just since May 1st of this year, jumping from 26x to 31x.
Persons: , Keith Lerner, Lerner Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Apple, Google, Business, Utilities, P Telecom, US Telecommunications ETF, Vanguard Utilities Index Fund
A screen displays stock figures at the Taiwan Stock Exchange Corp. headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan, on Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. The Taiwan Weighted Index has surged 28% so far this year, powered by stocks along the AI value chain. While Taiwan may lead Asian markets, Japan seems to be the favored market going forward, among analysts who spoke to CNBC. While most Asian markets are in positive territory year-to-date, three stock markets — Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines — fell into negative territory. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that 61% of traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting.
Persons: Foxconn —, Hai Precision Industry —, Rahul Ghosh, Rowe Price, Ghosh, Ben Powell, Powell, Neel Kashkari, Ken Orchard Organizations: Taiwan Stock Exchange Corp, Bloomberg, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, Hai Precision Industry, Intelligence, Nikkei, CNBC, BlackRock Investment Institute, Bank of Japan, Federal, U.S, Fed, Minneapolis Federal Locations: Taipei, Taiwan, Asia, Pacific, Japan, BlackRock, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Jakarta, Philippine, U.S
"In contrast, current valuation extremes imply potential downside risk for the S&P 500 on the order of 50-70% over the completion of this cycle." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4,200, while more extreme forecasts include Jeremy Grantham's estimate in the low 3,000s. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: , Jonathan Golub, Count John Hussman, Hussman, Hussman's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Jeremy Grantham's Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, Hussman Investment Trust, New York Stock Exchange, Investor Intelligence
4 You can choose to direct Daily Cash to a Savings account or to an Apple Cash card. By opening a Savings account, Apple Card Owners and Co-Owners are affirmatively electing to have all future Daily Cash automatically deposited into their respective Savings account. Daily Cash may not be divided between Apple Cash Card and Savings accounts. To access and use all Apple Card features and products available only to Apple Card users, you must add Apple Card to Wallet on an iPhone or iPad that supports and has the latest version of iOS or iPadOS. If you reside in the U.S. territories, please call Goldman Sachs at 877-255-5923 with questions about Apple Card.
Persons: Wojtalewicz, Ally Walsh, Casey, Ally, Casey Wojtalewicz, she'll, they're, Daily Cash, Cash, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Apple, Apple Card, Coffee, Savings, Daily, Insider Studios, Goldman Sachs Bank, Salt Lake City Branch, FDIC, Green Dot Bank, Branch, Member FDIC, Apple Cash Card, Minor Outlying Locations: Los Angeles, Echo Park, LA, Salt Lake City, Daily, Salt Lake, American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, United States, U.S
A Surprising Climate Find
  + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Raymond Zhong | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
We humans have settled in all sorts of precarious environments: parched deserts, barren tundra, high mountains. None are precarious in quite the same way as atolls, the tiny, low-lying islands that dot the tropics. As the planet warms and the oceans rise, atoll nations like the Maldives, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu have seemed doomed to vanish, like the mythical Atlantis, into watery oblivion. Of late, though, scientists have begun telling a surprising new story about these islands. By comparing mid-20th century aerial photos with recent satellite images, they’ve been able to see how the islands have evolved over time.
Persons: they’ve Organizations: Marshall, Indian Locations: Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Pacific
The S&P 500 could crash 48% when the bubble in stocks pops and a recession hits, Paul Dietrich said. The elite strategist pointed to a massively overvalued market and cracks in the economy. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 could be cut in half when the stock-market bubble pops and the US economy sinks into recession, Paul Dietrich says. He attributed that to institutional investors buying the haven asset as they expect a "major correction or stock market crash due to our wildly overvalued stock market and a slowing underling economy." The Wall Street veteran is one of several top forecasters predicting pain for stocks and a recession ahead.
Persons: Paul Dietrich, Dietrich, , Riley Wealth, Warren Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Wall
Nvidia stock is still cheap based on a forward price-to-earnings multiple, according to a hedge fund manager. Eric Jackson expects Nvidia stock to hit $250 per share by the end of the year, doubling from current levels. Jackson expects Nvidia stock to hit $250 by the end of the year, representing potential upside of 101% from current levels. And it's all because Nvidia stock is still cheap on a valuation basis, according to Jackson. AdvertisementConstellation Research and Rosenblatt have a $200 price target for Nvidia stock, while Bank of America recently reiterated its $150 target.
Persons: Eric Jackson, , EMJ Capital, Jackson, it's, Blackwell, Rubin, Jackson isn't, Rosenblatt Organizations: Nvidia, Service, EMJ, CNBC, Cisco, Wall, Constellation Research, Bank of America
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Dow up, Nvidia sinksThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260 points as investors rotated out of technology and into banking and energy stocks, such as Goldman Sachs and Chevron. He expressed concerns about potential criticism from former President Donald Trump if rate cuts occur before the election. "I suspect the market is probably more right than wrong when it says the rate cuts are likely to come after the election," he said. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, attributes the sell-off to concerns over the number of rate cuts.
Persons: Dow, Goldman Sachs, David Rubenstein, Rubenstein, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, Donald Trump, Bitcoin, James Butterfill, Shein Organizations: CNBC, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Chevron, Nasdaq, Treasury, The Carlyle, Federal Reserve, Novo Nordisk Locations: Israel, Lebanon, Novo, North Carolina, Danish, London, U.S, Beijing, Singapore, China
After growing by $3 trillion and then losing hundreds of billions, investors will be asking: is this a crash? download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Now, investors will be wondering if Nvidia faces a similar fate. The parallels are unnerving: like Cisco, Nvidia became the world's most valuable company when it briefly surpassed Microsoft last week with a market capitalization of $3.34 trillion. Like Cisco, investors hope its hardware is key to the online future.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Cisco, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business
Don't expect rate cuts from the Federal Reserve before the November election, according to David Rubenstein. "Generally the Fed wants to stay out of politics," the co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group told CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin on " Squawk Box " Monday. "I've always said that I think the Fed is not likely to cut rates before the election because it would just cause too much political turmoil." Rubenstein noted that the Fed likely recognizes it would be "heavily criticized" by former President Donald Trump if it starts cutting ahead of the election. "I suspect the market is probably more right than wrong when it says the rate cuts are likely to come after the election," he said.
Persons: David Rubenstein, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, I've, Rubenstein, Donald Trump, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve, The Carlyle Group, Traders, The Kennedy Center, Democrat
Nvidia 's furious rally is breaking new ground in stock chart analysis that even the dot-com bubble couldn't pull off, according to BTIG. "NVDA recently traded ~100% above its 200 DMA. In other words, NVDA is in a league of its own," the note said. To make another parallel to the dot-com bubble, Cisco also briefly passed Microsoft in market cap in March of 2000, according to Krinsky. Shares of Nvidia are now up more than 150% year to date, and its market cap is still over $3 trillion despite a Friday slump.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, NVDA, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Cisco, Microsoft Locations: U.S
The summer after my sophomore and junior years at Harvard University, I interned at Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund. AdvertisementAnd while I definitely see parallels between my time at Bridgewater and that "Black Mirror" episode, I look back fondly on my time there. AdvertisementAuthenticity is a big thing at Bridgewater, so I went into the interview wanting to be completely myself. I worked on a lot of diversity initiatives, figuring out how to make Bridgewater more streamlined and accessible to employees. It helped shape who I am today, especially how I think about feedback, work, and the relationships I have at work.
Persons: Daria Rose, Ray, , I've, Ray Dalio, would've, She'd, Myers, , we'd, I'd, It's, Dalio, it's, it'd, Ray Dalio isn't, We'd, Jane Zhang Organizations: Bridgewater Associates, Business, Harvard University, Bridgewater, Harvard, Briggs Locations: Ray Dalio's, Bridgewater, Westport , Connecticut, janezhang@businessinsider.com
Jensen Huang isn't sitting comfortably atop the world's most valuable company. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementFor Jensen Huang, unparalleled success has reportedly come with a healthy helping of anxiety. The Nvidia cofounder has been christened the tech world's Taylor Swift — with a rock-star persona to match the company's unprecedented riches. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Jensen Huang isn't, , Jensen Huang, Taylor Swift, Huang Organizations: Nvidia, Cisco, Sun, Service, Microsoft, Business Locations: Taiwan
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