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Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat in a solidly Republican state, has established an image as a stalwart supporter of working-class voters. Bernie Moreno, a wealthy Colombian-born businessman, was the choice of Mr. Trump, not Ohio's G.O.P. establishment.
Persons: Sherrod Brown, Bernie Moreno, Trump Organizations: Republican Locations: Colombian
Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, has been a low-key fixture in Wisconsin politics for decades. Republicans nominated Eric Hovde, a banker with money to finance his own campaign. A late advertising blitz by Mr. Hovde narrowed the race, surprising Democrats.
Persons: Tammy Baldwin, Eric Hovde, Hovde Organizations: Democrat Locations: Wisconsin
Third-term Representative Jared Golden, a Democrat, has managed to defy political gravity in a district that voted for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020 by frequently breaking with his party and courting Republican voters. This year, he faces his toughest challenge yet from Republican Austin Theriault, a state representative and former NASCAR driver endorsed by Mr. Trump.
Persons: Jared Golden, Donald Trump, Republican Austin Theriault, Trump Organizations: Democrat, Republican, NASCAR, Mr
Representative Juan Ciscomani, a first-term Republican, is again facing Kirsten Engel, the Democrat he defeated in 2022 by fewer than 6,000 votes. Mr. Ciscomani has centered his campaign around border security and economic issues, while Ms. Engel has emphasized protecting reproductive rights after the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
Persons: Juan Ciscomani, Kirsten Engel, Ciscomani, Engel, Roe, Wade Organizations: Democrat
Representative Anthony D’Esposito helped Republicans flip the House in 2022. Now, he is one of its most vulnerable members, defending a left-leaning Long Island seat amid questions about reporting that he put his lover on the payroll. He faces Democrat Laura Gillen.
Persons: Anthony D’Esposito, Laura Gillen Organizations: Republicans
How CNN projects elections
  + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +14 min
CNN —Millions of Americans will be tuning in to CNN and other networks on election night as returns roll in. They’ll be waiting to see who wins, something CNN will determine with a series of projections. I talked to Jennifer Agiesta, CNN’s director of polling and election analytics, about how CNN approaches the job of projecting a winner. But it tends to be after Election Day in a place like Pennsylvania. Is there a precedent in your career for a race that’s this close heading into Election Day?
Persons: They’ll, Jennifer Agiesta, It’s, that’s, they’re, what’s, We’ll, Carter Smith, There’s, we’re, they’ll, we’ll, Megan Varner, Donald, Trump, Kamala, Harris, it’s Clark, That’s, I’m Organizations: CNN, White, Democratic, Republican, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Democrat, New, Electoral College Locations: Houston, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Atlanta, Nevada , Michigan, Wisconsin, Maricopa, In Nevada, Washoe, Milwaukee, Dane County, Grand Rapids, Kent County, Michigan, Florida . New Mexico, New Hampshire
That’s why Trump, who closely follows the stock market and obsessed over it as president, should be nervous about the recent trend on Wall Street. If the market goes down, the incumbent party gets replaced,” Stovall told CNN in a phone interview Monday. Market indicator was right in 2016 and 2020Vice President Kamala Harris should feel relieved the market has seen solid gains. In 2016, the S&P 500 dipped 2.2% in the lead-up to Trump’s matchup with the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton. Yet there’s another market indicator that offers a reason for hope for the Harris camp.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall, Trump, ” Stovall, , Stovall, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, Dwight Eisenhower, Adlai Stevenson, Hillary Clinton, Clinton, Obama, Joe Biden, Hubert Humphrey, Richard Nixon, Harris, Humphrey, Jimmy Carter, Carter, , Doug Ramsey, Dow, We’re, ” Ramsey Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, , CNN, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Trump, Democratic, State, Democratic Party, Investment, Federal, Dow Jones Locations: New York, Chicago, Vietnam, Iran, Monday’s
They have also considered the impact of potential tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump. Some on Wall Street view a Harris win as a potential obstacle for antitrust and megacap technology stocks. "Regulatory scrutiny will probably help a lot of M & A activity under Trump — Harris, it'll be a little more of the status quo," said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. This could "slow the pace of the AI revolution," he said in a recent post to X that also called a Harris win "more bullish" for the industry. Some investors also view Tesla as a likely winner under a Trump administration, given CEO Elon Musk's close ties to the former president.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Roger McNamee, Harris, Trump, Trump — Harris, it'll, Jay Woods, McNamee, Vivek Arya, Joe Rogan, Arya, Ed Mills, Raymond James, of America's Brad Sills, Raymond James ' Mills, Dan Ives, Trump's, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Capital's, Wolfe, Chris Senyek Organizations: Elevation Partners, Tech, Antitrust, Google, Justice Department, Trump, Freedom Capital, Bank of America, PHLX Semiconductor, Democrat, Republican, SOX, Devices, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, Intel, of America's, Microsoft, Oracle, Wedbush Securities, Investors Locations: stoke, Taiwan, China, Washington
Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a first-term Democrat representing a rural, working class district that former President Donald J. Trump won twice, is considered the most vulnerable Democrat in the House. She has frequently broken with her party on major votes and is in a rematch against Joe Kent, a far-right election denier whom she beat in 2022 by less than 1 percentage point.
Persons: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Donald J, Trump, Joe Kent
Critics have said that school choice puts public education at risk by diverting funds away from public schools and that some school choice initiatives have disproportionately helped wealthier families. Colorado's Amendment 80 establishes a constitutionally protected right to school choice for children from kindergarten through 12th grade. If the law is repealed, it would get rid of the state's school choice program. Related storiesIf the state ballot initiatives pass, they would build on the existing school choice programs across the country. Arizona added to the momentum by creating the first universal voucher program in 2022, and nearly 30 states have some form of a school choice program.
Persons: Critics, , Andy Beshear, Kentucky Sen, Rand Paul Organizations: Service, Kentucky Center for Economic, Kentucky Gov, Republican Locations: Nebraska , Colorado, Kentucky, Colorado , Kentucky, Nebraska, Ohio, Arkansas, Arizona
Democrat Yevgeny Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and lawyer who teamed with his twin brother in a whistleblower account that became the basis of the first impeachment case against President Donald J. Trump, is making his first foray into politics seeking to succeed retiring Representative Abigail Spanberger. He faces Derrick Anderson, a Republican and former Green Beret.
Persons: Yevgeny Vindman, Donald J, Trump, Abigail Spanberger, Derrick Anderson Organizations: Republican, Green Beret
Representative Matt Cartwright, a Democrat, has represented the Scranton-area for more than a decade, but it remains one of the true swing districts in the country. An Erie native, Mr. Cartwright is the only member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus to carry a district won by former President Donald J. Trump. He faces Rob Bresnahan Jr., whom Republicans believe has a solid chance to capture the seat.
Persons: Matt Cartwright, Cartwright, Donald J, Trump, Rob Bresnahan Jr Organizations: Democrat, Congressional Progressive Caucus Locations: Scranton, An Erie
Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump. Scott Olson | Bill Pugliano | Getty ImagesThe world is watching the U.S. presidential election as voters go to the polls Tuesday, but the vote is more consequential for some countries. That situation is even more pronounced for Ukraine, whose territorial integrity could even be at stake. Trump defended the measure as a way of reducing a yawning trade deficit with China, and to boost American jobs and competitiveness. Patrick Stollarz | AFP | Getty ImagesThis year, Trump said that if he was reelected, he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods by 60-100%.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Scott Olson, Bill Pugliano, Trump, Xi Jinping, Patrick Stollarz, Harris, Biden's, It's, Ian Bremmer, Vladimir Putin, Alexei Nikolsky, Washington Hilton, Kevin Dietsch, Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden —, Brendan Smialowski Organizations: Democratic, Republican, U.S, AFP, Getty, Trump, Democrat, CNBC, Russia, Anadolu, Russian, Eurasia Group, Russia's, Sputnik, Kremlin, Reuters It's, Ukraine, Washington, - American, Israeli American Council National Summit, Israel Democracy Institute, Reuters Locations: Ukraine, China China, United States, China, Hamburg, Germany, U.S, Russia, Kyiv, Moscow, Toretsk, Orenburg, Israel, Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Jerusalem, Tehran
Republican Representative Scott Perry, the former chairman of the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus who played a lead role in seeking to overturn the 2020 election, is fighting to defend his seat in a central Pennsylvania district that has shifted toward the center. He faces Janelle Stelson, a popular TV anchor in the area who last year changed her party affiliation from Republican to Democrat and is running as a centrist.
Persons: Scott Perry, Janelle Stelson Organizations: Caucus, Republican, Democrat Locations: Pennsylvania
CNN —Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will win the Maryland Senate race, CNN projects, defeating Republican former Gov. Her victory is a relief for Democrats, who were facing a daunting Senate landscape before this race came on the map. Neither made their history-making potential a key message on the trail, but it was resonant in a state where Black voters – and Black women in particular – are a crucial part of the electorate. Alsobrooks’ home turf of Prince George’s County is home to one of the largest middle-class Black populations in the country. The Democratic Party quickly united around Alsobrooks, who already had the backing of most of the state’s congressional delegation.
Persons: Angela Alsobrooks, Larry Hogan, Sen, Ben Cardin, Prince George’s, Delaware’s Lisa Blunt Rochester, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Hogan, codifying Roe, Wade, he’d, Alsobrooks, Kamala Harris, David Trone Organizations: CNN, Maryland Senate, Republican, Gov, Black, Democrats, Republicans, Washington Post, University of Maryland, Democratic Party Locations: Prince George’s County, Maryland, Prince George’s, Alsobrooks
Mike Rogers, a Republican and former critic of Mr. Trump who later embraced him, is facing Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat who has used her national security credentials to win over swing voters in Central Michigan since 2018.
Persons: Mike Rogers, Mr, Trump, Elissa Slotkin Organizations: Republican, Democrat Locations: Central Michigan
CNN —The winners of several elections up and down the ballot will be making history this year, CNN projects. In the House, CNN projects North Dakota to make history with the election of its first woman, Republican Julie Fedorchak, to the state’s at-large district. DE-AL: Democrat Sarah McBride will be the first transgender member of Congress, CNN projects, winning the race for Delaware’s at-large congressional district. McBride, a state senator, will succeed Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who won election to the US Senate. Johnson, a state representative, will succeed Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who ran for Senate.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Vance, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Angela Alsobrooks of, , , Julie Fedorchak, Sarah McBride, Delaware’s, Julie Johnson, Josh Stein –, Angela Alsobrooks, Larry Hogan, Democratic Sen, Ben Cardin, Alsobrooks, Prince George’s, Democrat Barbara Mikulski, Delaware’s Lisa Blunt Rochester, Kelly Armstrong, Tom Carper, Blunt Rochester, Maryland’s Angela Alsobrooks, McBride, Josh Stein, Mark Robinson, Stein, Roy Cooper, Johnson, Colin Allred, Yassamin Ansari, Ruben Gallego, Ansari, Suhas Subramanyam, Jennifer Wexton Organizations: CNN, Democratic, Republican, House, – North, SEN, Gov, Democrat, Dakota ND, North Dakota Public Service Commission, Delaware DE, First State, Delaware . North Carolina NC, GOV, Congressional, Senate, Arizona AZ, Iranian American Democrat, Congressional District, Phoenix City Council ., Phoenix City Council . Virginia VA, Indian Locations: American, Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware, Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, North Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, – North Carolina, Maryland, Prince George’s County, Dakota, Fedorchak, Delaware, McBride, Delaware . North Carolina, North Carolina, Roy Cooper . Texas, Arizona’s, Phoenix City Council . Virginia, Virginia, India
Seven-term Representative David Schweikert, a Republican, has emphasized his fiscal conservatism as he seeks re-election in the wealthy Phoenix suburbs of Scottsdale and Pleasant Valley. He faces Democrat Amish Shah, a state representative and emergency room doctor who hopes to ride a wave of voter turnout boosted by an abortion rights measure on the ballot.
Persons: David Schweikert, Shah Organizations: Republican Locations: Phoenix, Scottsdale, Pleasant Valley
Pre-election polling showed her race against former President Donald Trump could be the closest in history. Bucks County, Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Gov. Montana: Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, is facing an even tougher challenge in Montana, a state Trump carried by over 16 points in 2020. AdvertisementCalifornia 22nd: Rep. David Valadao is one of 18 House Republicans representing a district President Biden won in 2020. Valadao is also one of the only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the January 6 Capitol riot.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, , Kamala Harris upended, Gallup, It's, Trump, Harris, Biden's, Obama, Carter, Josh Shapiro, Hillary Clinton, Biden, Doug Ducey, Mark Blumenthal, Blumenthal, they're, Elissa Slotkin, Mike Rogers, Rogers, Slotin, Sen, Sherrod Brown, Bernie Moreno, Brown, AdImpact, Moreno, Montana : Sen, Jon Tester, Tim Sheehy, Sheehy, Tester, David Schweikert, Katie Hobbs, Mark Kelly, Shah, Marc Molinaro, Josh Riley, David Valadao, Valadao, Rudy Salas Organizations: Service, White House, White, Electoral, North, Bucks, Pennsylvania, GOP, Democrats, Biden, Republican, Netflix, Senate, Michigan, Trump, Democrat, Cleveland, Ohio Senate, Montana :, Republicans, Rep, Gov, . New York, Democratic, Former Locations: Pennsylvania, New York, California, Michigan , Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nebraska, Bucks County , Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Waukesha County , Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Clinton, Maricopa County , Arizona, Phoenix, Ohio, Montana, Arizona, Scottsdale, . New
Georgia2012 margin: Romney +7.8%Advertisement2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%Related storiesFor decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. Two years later, Biden won Georgia by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual 2021 runoff victories of Sens. Pennsylvania2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%AdvertisementBiden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. Wisconsin2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%Advertisement2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically divided states in the country. But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, , Joe Biden, Harris, Kevin McCarthy of, Mike Johnson of, suburbanites, Roe, Wade, Trump, Bill Clinton, Kansas Sen, Bob Dole, Barry Goldwater, Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Biden, Katie Hobbs, MAGA, Kari Lake, Sen, Mark Kelly, Republican Blake Masters, Adrian Fontes, Hobbs, Mark Finchem, Ruben Gallego, Stacey Abrams —, Georgia —, Abrams, Sens, Raphael Warnock, Jon Ossoff, Kelly Loeffler, David Perdue, midterms, Warnock, Republican Herschel Walker, Walker, Brian Kemp, Gretchen Whitmer, Dana Nessel, Jocelyn Benson, Obama, Clinton, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, Steve Sisolak, reelecting Sen, Catherine Cortez Masto, Adam Laxalt, — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, Susie Lee —, Arizona GOP Sen, John McCain, Josh Stein, Mark Robinson, Roy Cooper, Gov, John Fetterman, GOP Sen, Pat Toomey, Josh Shapiro, Tom Wolf, Al Gore, John Kerry eked, Tony Evers, Scott Walker —, Tammy Baldwin, Evers, Tim Michels, Ron Johnson, Mandela Barnes Organizations: Swing, Sun, Service, Democratic, Republican, House, Republicans, State, Massachusetts Gov, Trump, Democratic Rep, GOP, Republican Party, Georgia, Gov, Michigan, Silver State, Democratic Gov, North Carolina, Arizona GOP, Romney, Democrats, Senate, Badger State Locations: Midwest, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Israel, Kevin McCarthy of California, Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Kansas, Massachusetts, Ruben Gallego . Georgia, Atlanta, Detroit, Gaza, Nevada, Silver, Clark, Clark County, North Carolina, North, Roy Cooper . Pennsylvania, Scranton, Philadelphia, Allegheny County, Pittsburgh
If the former president wins, Caparra’s “my version of this country” comment could be instructive. Economic concerns dominateIf Trump wins, voters like Joseph Knowles and Brian McMutuary will be part of his comeback math too. CNNIf Harris wins, women will be the foundation of her coalition. Many Trump voters echo their candidate in saying the only way for Harris to win is through fraud. Attorney Joan London is another Haley voter turned Harris voter.
Persons: Pennsylvania CNN — Shannon Elliott, Kristin Caparra, “ I’m, ’ ’, Elliott, , ” Caparra, Kamala Harris, , Caparra, Drexel Hill, Donald Trump, ” Elliott, Joe Biden’s, Caparra’s, Diehard Trump, Nikki Haley, Trump, Harris, ” Ebersole, Joseph Knowles, Brian McMutuary, Knowles, Biden, “ We’ve, , ” Knowles, John King, CNN McMutuary, McMutuary, Tamara Varga, Suresh Sharma, , ” John King, Lakeysha Hallmon, ” Hallmon, ” Shannon Elliott, ’ ” Elliott, Michael Pesce, Haley, Angela Lang, Chris Mudd, ” Trump, “ He’s, ’ ”, Pesce, Pennsylvania Haley, Joan London, she’s Organizations: Pennsylvania CNN, Trump, Drexel Hill, Democratic Socialist Party, Swarthmore, Drexel, South Carolina Gov, Republicans, CNN, Republican, Republican Party, Biden, White, Democratic, Black, Communities, Reagan Republican, GOP Locations: Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Swarthmore, Delaware County, Washington, Iowa, Michigan, Macomb County, Milwaukee, , Tucson , Arizona, Georgia, Atlanta, Bucks County, New Tripoli , Pennsylvania, Cedar Falls , Iowa, London
Sam Brown, a Republican newcomer, is a West Point graduate who was nearly killed by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan. His thin political résumé could help him. Senator Jacky Rosen, a Democrat, isn’t flashy, but the power of incumbency matters.
Persons: Sam Brown, Jacky Rosen Organizations: Democrat Locations: Afghanistan
First-term Representative Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a mainstream Republican who has endorsed former President Donald J. Trump, is running against Democrat Janelle Bynum, a state representative, in a district that stretches from Portland’s southern suburbs to the rapidly growing town of Bend. Both candidates are pitching themselves as independent thinkers who can work across party lines.
Persons: Lori Chavez, Donald J, Trump, Janelle Bynum Organizations: Republican Locations: Portland’s, Bend
First-term Representative Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat, is in a rematch against former Representative Yvette Herrell, a Republican and former member of the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus whom he defeated in 2022 by fewer than 1,300 votes. Mr. Vasquez has focused his campaign in the swing district on the U.S.-Mexico border on protecting abortion access and reproductive rights, while Ms. Herrell has centered hers around border security and immigration.
Persons: Gabe Vasquez, Yvette Herrell, Vasquez, Herrell Organizations: Democrat, Republican, Freedom Caucus Locations: Mexico
What happens to stocks during election week? In general, the market has a slightly bullish bent during election week, but you can slice it different ways. The average percentage change for the S & P 500 in the week of the election is up 0.7%, with the index gaining 63% of the time, according to Birinyi Associates. That is why the S & P 500 is only 2% below its historic high. S & P 500 earnings estimates Q3: +8.4% Oct. 1: +6.0% Q4: +10.7% Technology: +14.6% Source: LSE Seasonals are important as well The seasonal trend is very strong.
Persons: Phil Mackintosh, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Birinyi Associates, Nasdaq, Democrat, Republican, LSE
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