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☆ Turkey inflation higher than expected at nearly 58%
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ISTANBUL, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Turkish annual inflation dipped to 57.68% in January, official data showed on Friday, but was well above forecasts despite a favourable base effect that is expected to carry on until President Tayyip Erdogan seeks re-election in May. Month-on-month, consumer prices rose 6.65%, the Turkish Statistical Institute said, nearly twice a Reuters poll forecast of 3.8%. Annually, consumer price inflation (TRCPIY=ECI) was forecast to be 53.5%. The annual price measure is now easing relative to that run-up, which included an 11% surge from December 2021 to January 2022. Economists expect annual inflation to dip to around 40% by the time of the May elections, which are expected to be tight according to polls.

☆ Euro zone economy unexpectedly grows in Q4 but weak 2023 looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Among the biggest euro zone countries, Germany and Italy recorded negative growth rates for the quarter but France and Spain expanded, Eurostat added, based on a flash estimate that is subject to revisions. Russia's nearly year-old war in Ukraine has proved costly for the euro zone, which now spans 350 million people in 20 countries, given some members' heavy reliance on cheap energy. The overall picture nevertheless remains weak, with meagre growth forecast for 2023 due to a large drop in real incomes and surging interest rates. Ireland's 3.5% Q4 growth figure distorted the overall picture as it was driven largely by activity among big foreign companies based there for tax reasons, economists said, adding that without Ireland, euro zone growth would have been zero. "We continue to expect the euro area economy to contract slightly in the first half of the year, and the recovery expected in the second half is likely to be weak."

☆ German business morale brightens further in January - Ifo
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoBERLIN, Jan 25 (Reuters) - German business morale brightened in January as Europe's largest economy started the new year with easing inflation and an improved outlook, a survey said on Wednesday. The Ifo institute said its business climate index rose to 90.2, in line with consensus according to a Reuters poll of analysts and up from a reading of 88.6 in December. "The German economy is starting the new year with more confidence," Ifo's president Clemens Fuest said. The increase is driven by considerably less pessimistic expectations, while companies were, however, somewhat less satisfied with their current situation, Ifo said. "The Ifo business climate has recovered significantly for the third time in a row as the easing on the gas market further diminished companies' fears of a severe recession," Commerzbank's chief economist Joerg Kraemer said.

REUTERS/Kamil KrzaczynskiSummary U.S. business activity better than expected, but remains softEuro zone posts surprise return to modest growthBritain PMI falls at fastest rate in two years, surveys showNEW YORK/LONDON Jan 24 (Reuters) - The downturn in U.S. business activity eased slightly in January even as it contracted for the seventh straight month while euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth, as two of the world's major economies hope to avert recession this year, surveys showed on Wednesday. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsEURO ZONE BOUNCES BACKThe Euro zone is showing more resilience. Business activity there made a surprise return to modest growth in January, adding to signs the downturn in the bloc may not be as deep as feared and that the currency union may escape recession. In France, the bloc's second-biggest economy, output fell slightly overall again in January, its PMI showed, but manufacturing activity improved for the first time since August. In the Euro zone, there was mixed news on inflation pressures, according to the PMI survey.

☆ Euro zone business activity back to growth in January -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, adding to signs the downturn in the bloc may not be as deep as feared and that the currency union may escape recession, a survey showed. S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, climbed to 50.2 this month from 49.3 in December. In France, the bloc's second biggest economy, output fell slightly overall again in January, its PMI showed, but manufacturing activity improved for the first time since August. British private-sector economic activity, however, fell at its fastest rate in two years in January, another PMI showed, as businesses blamed higher Bank of England interest rates, strikes and weak consumer demand for the slowdown. IMPROVED SERVICESIn a sign they are growing more optimistic, firms in the euro zone increased headcount at a faster rate this month.

☆ Germany's Commerzbank sues EY for Wirecard losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/3] A Commerzbank logo is pictured before the bank's annual news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, February 9, 2017. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File PhotoFRANKFURT, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The German lender Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) is suing accounting firm EY over the 200 million euros ($216.12 million) in losses that it incurred in the collapse of Wirecard, a bank spokesperson said on Thursday. EY was for years the firm that audited and certified Wirecard's books even as journalists and investors raised questions about its finances. The Commerzbank spokesperson said the case had been filed in Frankfurt court in recent weeks. An EY spokesperson said "claims against EY for damages do not hold up".

☆ China central bank to maintain or increase policy-loan liquidity - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The PBOC manages liquidity by extending loans to banks under its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF). Twelve analysts expected the central bank to replace that debt exactly with 700 billion yuan of new lending, and 10 expected it to go further and lend a greater amount. A great majority - 21 traders and analysts - expected the MLF interest rate to stay unchanged at 2.75% this month, while the remaining four respondents expected a small rate cut. Markets still expect some monetary policy easing measures to support economic recovery, including cuts to policy rates and the amount of cash that banks must set aside as reserves. "The PBOC will likely cut interest rates soon to aid the expected economic recovery this year."

☆ Asia shares dip on hawkish Fed remarks; recession risk weighs on commodities, oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Selena Li | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.17%. "The main theme overnight was cautiousness in the equity space as stocks pared gains after hawkish comments from two Fed officials. read moreChina stocks on Tuesday snapped a six-session winning streak, while Hong Kong shares jumped to a six-month high. However, any optimism may be short-lived, said Trinh Nguyen, emerging Asia economist at Natixis in Hong Kong. "I think what would temper a lot of this optimism coming up is really the reality of this opening up.

☆ Asia shares dip on hawkish Fed remarks; commods rise on China reopening
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Selena Li | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The main theme overnight was cautiousness in the equity space as stocks pared gains after hawkish comments from two Fed officials. The dollar index fell 0.068%. read moreChina's reopening buoyed sentiment with its stocks rising for a sixth consecutive session on Monday, while Hong Kong shares jumped to a six-month high. However, any optimism may be short-lived, said Trinh Nguyen, emerging Asia economist at Natixis in Hong Kong. Even in Hong Kong, although it is officially open, the visa issuance has been rather slow," Nguyen said.

☆ Inflation drops sharply in Europe but some prices are still rising faster
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

London CNN —Inflation in Europe continued to decline in December as energy prices rose at a slower pace. In November, prices rose 10.1%. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, reached 5.2% in December, up from 5% in November. The data is likely to encourage the European Central Bank to stick with its policy of raising borrowing costs. The central bank, which aggressively hiked interest rates last year, has indicated it will continue with increases in 2023.

But the headline number masked a more malignant trend, with all key components of core inflation accelerating. "Rising core inflation means that not much will sway the European Central Bank from the hawkish path it set out late last year," ING economist Bert Colijn said. The recession was expected to push up unemployment, naturally dampening price pressures. But employment, already at a record high, is actually going up, not down. "The delayed passthrough of high production costs and a still-strong labour market will sustain core inflation," Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani at Oxford Economics said.

☆ German inflation slows in December on one-off energy payment
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Miranda Murray | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A one-off payment for household energy bills in December, part of government efforts to shield consumers, had a downward effect on prices, according to the statistics office. Energy prices eased somewhat in December but were still up 24.4% compared with the same period last year, while food prices had increased by 20.7%, according to the office. Germany's full-year harmonized inflation rate jumped to 8.7% in 2022 from 3.2% a year earlier, said the statistics office. "Core inflation remains the number one inflation scourge for the time being," he added, referring to a measure that excludes volatile food and energy costs. Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer also warned that core inflation had risen further and said the European Central Bank's "hesitant approach" means high inflation will stick around, despite energy relief measures.

☆ European shares start 2023 on upbeat note on encouraging factory data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Bansari Mayur Kamdar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The pan-regional STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.8%, supported by consumer discretionary stocks. "With 10-year bund yields above 2.50%, relaxed year-end trading and the probable drop in HICP inflation are raising hopes for an upbeat start into the year," Commerzbank Research analysts said in a note, referring to the euro zone consumer prices inflation data due later this week. Rate-sensitive technology stocks (.SX8P), among the worst-performing shares last year, rose 1.5% on the day, despite more hawkish signals from the European Central Bank. Bond yields of Europe's largest economy, Germany, dropped from their highest levels in more than a decade as investors braced for inflation data this week. The German DAX (.GDAXI) gained 1.0%, while other European exchanges also started the year on a positive note.

☆ Dollar edges up at start of new year but sentiment frail
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It has weakened recently as markets bet a U.S. Federal Reserve tightening cycle may be nearing an end and sentiment remained fragile. The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, was trading up around 0.16% at 103.65 - off roughly six-month lows hit last week at around 103.38. Against the yen, the dollar was a touch softer at 130.94 , having hit its lowest levels since August last month. "There is an attempt by the dollar index to pull higher today but we do see that it is losing a good part of the strength it gained last year," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of forex research at Commerzbank. That Fed tightening helped lift the dollar index 8% last year in its biggest annual jump since 2015.

☆ Stocks buoyant while darker forecasts gather on the horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.06%, just short of an index of global shares, which climbed 0.16%. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) climbed 0.6%, retracing little of the nearly 12% it lost in 2022, bludgeoned by central banks' aggressive monetary policy tightening. Elsewhere, the dollar edged almost 0.2% higher against a basket of major currencies, while the pound and euro fell 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. The benchmark 10-year yield climbed around 27 basis points (bps) last week and over 200 bps last year, ending 2022 around 3.88%. Germany's 10-year bond yield fell 8.4 bps to 2.47%, after hitting its highest since 2011 at 2.57% on Friday.

☆ Stocks edge higher as darker forecasts loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.04%, just short of an index of global shares, which climbed 0.21%. "Europe is taking the latest round of PMIs well enough, as the final readings help to confirm the view (hope?) DOLLAR STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN STRENGTHElsewhere, the dollar edged almost 0.1% higher against a basket of major currencies, while the pound and euro fell 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Germany's 10-year bond yield fell 13 bps to 2.43%, after hitting its highest since 2011 at 2.57% on Friday. Reporting by Nell Mackenzie Additional reporting Dhara Ranasinghe Editing by Mark Potter and Barbara LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ China holds benchmark lending rates for 4th consecutive month
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI, Dec 20 (Reuters) - China kept benchmark lending interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month on Tuesday, matching the forecasts of most market watchers who nevertheless expect further monetary easing to prop up a slowing economy. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was left at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR was held at 4.30%. Market watchers regard MLF announcements as guides to any LPR changes. Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at ANZ, said with rates unchanged, household spending would continue without any increase in disposable income. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.

☆ 'Global contenders': BofA names stocks with earnings momentum that look cheap
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Looking ahead, however, BofA expects "defender" stocks with falling earnings momentum to underperform the MSCI AC World Index. Stocks that are 'global contenders' Against this backdrop, BofA identified stocks that are "inexpensive" but have strong earnings momentum and price momentum. "Our back-testing and subsequent performance show that stocks with above-average earnings momentum tended to outperform, stocks with above-average price momentum tended to outperform, but stocks with both the characteristics tended to perform even better," it wrote. These stocks have outperformed the MSCI AC World Index by 6.9% year-to-date, the bank said. The bank's "global contenders" screen contains 30 stocks including: U.S.: Gaming company Electronic Arts , energy tech firm Enphase Energy , health care company Jazz Pharma , and beauty firm Ulta Beauty .

☆ Wirecard bosses' fraud trial begins after scandal that rocked Germany
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Jörn Poltz | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The trial is taking place in Munich's largest and newest courtroom, a bomb-proof underground hall built in the Stadelheim prison complex. Braun, an Austrian born in Vienna, has denied embezzling money from Wirecard and accused others of running a shadow operation without his knowledge. [1/8] Wirecard's former CEO Markus Braun looks on at a courtroom as his trial begins, after the German payments company collapsed in the wake of a fraud scandal in 2020, in Munich, Germany, December 8, 2022. The fraud let Wirecard managers siphon money out of the company with no proper checks and balances. "All three defendants worked together to make Wirecard appear as an extremely successful FinTech company," said Anne Leiding, a spokesperson for the prosecutors.

☆ Wirecard ex-boss on trial for fraud in scandal that rocked Germany
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Jörn Poltz | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The trial is taking place in Munich's largest and newest courtroom, a bomb-proof underground hall built in the Stadelheim prison complex. Braun has denied embezzling money from Wirecard and accused others of running a shadow operation without his knowledge. [1/7] Wirecard's former CEO Markus Braun looks on at a courtroom as his trial begins, after the German payments company collapsed in the wake of a fraud scandal in 2020, in Munich, Germany, December 8, 2022. The fraud let Wirecard managers siphon money out of the company with no proper checks and balances. Scholz also criticised Wirecard's auditor, EY, for failing to detect the fraud.

☆ Former Wirecard boss goes on trial in fraud scandal that rocked Germany
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Jörn Poltz | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Wirecard's former boss Markus Braun listens, ahead of testifying before a German parliamentary committee in Berlin, Germany, November 19, 2020. Braun has denied embezzling money from Wirecard and accused others of running a shadow operation without his knowledge. However, within days, Wirecard became the first-ever DAX member to file for insolvency, owing creditors nearly $4 billion. Following Wirecard's demise, the head of German financial regulator BaFin resigned and the head of Germany's accounting watchdog also stepped down. Scholz also criticised Wirecard's auditor, EY, for failing to catch the fraud.

☆ Oil prices fall on economic fears, dollar strength
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell in a volatile market on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar stayed strong and economic uncertainty offset the bullish impact of a price cap placed on Russian oil and the prospects of a demand boost in China. Brent crude futures fell $1.21, or $1.46%, to $81.47 a barrel by 1254 GMT. In China, more cities are easing COVID-19-related curbs, prompting expectations of increased demand in the world's top oil importer. The price cap adds to the disruption caused by the EU's embargo on imports of Russian crude by sea and similar pledges by the United States, Canada, Japan and Britain. Russia has declared its intention not to sell oil to anyone who signs up to the price cap.

☆ Dollar kept aloft by higher Fed rates bets, RBA rate hike lifts Aussie
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Australian dollar perked up from near one-week lows after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates for the eighth time in as many months. After recording its biggest rally in two weeks on Monday, the U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, was 0.1% lower at 105.05 at 1200 GMT. It later reversed course after data showing U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding. Traders currently expect a half-point hike to a 4.25-4.5% policy band and a terminal rate of just above 5% in May. European Central Bank policymaker Constantinos Herodotou said on Tuesday interest rates will go up again but are now "very near" their neutral level.

☆ Analysis: Europe's inflation problem will linger for years to come
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Government stimulus measures are working against the ECB's policy tightening, and too much of the energy price rise has seeped into the broader economy through second-round effects, fuelling underlying price growth. "The core inflation rate is unlikely to peak until mid-2023 and will only fall slowly thereafter," Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil said. "Against this backdrop, the ECB's goal of pushing the inflation rate back to just under 2% on a sustainable basis seems a long way off." The ECB's new projections, due out next week, are set to show inflation above target through 2024 and only falling to 2% in 2025. But it is not evident that after a few years of above-trend growth, wage-setting will fall back in line with the ECB's target.

The Australian dollar perked up from near one-week lows after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates for the eighth time in as many months. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, was at 105.24, steady after Monday's 0.7% rally, its biggest since Nov. 21. It later reversed course after data showing U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding. Traders currently expect a half-point hike to a 4.25-4.5% policy band and a terminal rate of just above 5% in May. Reporting by Joice Alves and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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