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☆ Cooling job market no reason for panic yet, economists say: 'It's a slowdown, not a collapse'
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Brown | Afp | Getty ImagesThe job market continues to show signs of cooling, but alarm bells aren't ringing just yet, economists said. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in October, from 3.8% in September, the BLS said. "There's almost no exception in this report: Every indicator suggests a slowing, slackening labor market," she said. "The days of explosive growth are gone, as the labor market shifts into healthier and more sustainable territory," said Noah Yosif, lead labor economist at UKG, a payroll and shift management company. The rise in the unemployment rate may also just be a sign that the extremely hot labor market is loosening a bit, Bunker added.

Persons: Frederic J, Brown, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Noah Yosif, Aaron Terrazas, Terrazas, Andrew Hunter, Nick Bunker Organizations: Afp, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Workers, Finance, Union, Capital Economics Locations: Los Angeles, U.S

☆ Europe’s gas prices are a worry ahead of winter despite brimming stores
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But while gas shortages are unlikely in Europe this winter, the price of the fuel remains a worry. According to S&P Global, about one-fifth of global LNG supply travels through the channel on Iran’s south coast. In a less jittery market, neither incident may have had the effect it did, helping boost European gas prices by more than 40% over the course of a single week. High gas prices have presented a persistent economic headwind for Europe's biggest economy due to its reliance on energy-intensive industries. Together, these milestones should push European gas prices down to €30 ($32) per megawatt hour by the end of next year, Weatherburn added.

Persons: Asia —, Soeren, ”, Jack Sharples, Heikki Saukkomaa, Simone Tagliapietra, Bill Weatherburn, Stefan Sauer, Weatherburn, “ Organizations: London CNN, European Union, International Energy Agency, EU, Getty, “, Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, CNN, Hamas, P, Chevron, Egyptian, Steam, ”, Capital Economics, Qatar, Energy Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Europe, North America, Asia, Norway, Hungary, Austria, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Germany, Israel, Gaza, Hormuz, Jordan, Egypt, Cairo, Estonia, Australia, AFP, “, ” Europe, France, Italy, Lubmin, Pomerania, United States, Qatar

☆ UK house prices show surprise rise in October - Nationwide
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Prices increased by 0.9% from September when they had risen by a marginal 0.1%, Nationwide said. It was the biggest monthly increase since August 2022. Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices to fall by a monthly 0.4% and by 4.8% year on year. "The uptick in house prices in October most likely reflects the fact that the supply of properties on the market is constrained," Nationwide Chief Economist Robert Gardner said. "While some buyers are able to accept higher mortgage payments, helping to prop up house prices, their number is dwindling as shown by the drop in mortgage approvals in September," Pattison said.

Persons: Robert Gardner, BoE, Gardner, Imogen Pattison, Pattison, William Schomberg, Jason Neely Organizations: Nationwide, Reuters, Royal Institution, Chartered Surveyors, Bank of England's, Capital Economics, Thomson

☆ China October factory surveys disappoint, weigh on Q4 momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in October from 50.6 in September, marking the first contraction since July and missing analysts' forecasts of 50.8 by a large margin. A slowdown in Chinese manufacturing will also soften China's imports. Following the release of the gloomy data, China shares (.SSEC) eased 0.15%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) fell 0.75%. PMI surveys track business conditions and offer the first monthly snapshot of China's economic performance. New export orders for Chinese manufactured goods have shrunk for four consecutive months amid a relatively sluggish global economic climate.

Persons: China's, Hong, HSI, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Goldman Sachs, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Kim Coghill, Lincoln Organizations: P Global, PMI, Manufacturers, London Metal Exchange, Jones, Goldman, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Japan, South Korea, China, Guangzhou

☆ Instant View: BOJ modifies bond yield control, re-defines long-term rate cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

But it's also likely the BOJ have their finger on the intervention button to cap any runaway rally on USD/JPY." Nevertheless, this is working in a way to increase the volatility of the global rates market. This means it will still have a certain distance until the BOJ exit from the negative rate policy." "A yield cap isn't a yield cap if you change it every time the market gets close." The Bank of Japan could lift the negative policy rate to zero over the coming year.

Persons: Kim Kyung, KYLE RODDA, MATT SIMPSON, JPY, it's, NOMURA, They've, TONY SYCAMORE, normalisation, TAKAYUKI MIYAJIMA, ROB CARNELL, they're, JEFF NG, TOM NASH, OMORI, SHOTARO KUGO, me, IZURU KATO, MARCEL THIELIANT, today's, FREDERIC NEUMANN, CHRISTOPHER WONG, BOJ's, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank of, Nikkei, SAXO, SONY, ING, UBS, CHIEF, DAIWA, OF, HSBC, Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, MELBOURNE, BRISBANE, SINGAPORE, TOKYO, U.S, SYDNEY, ASIA, PACIFIC, CHIEF JAPAN, stagflation, OF ASIA, YCC, HONG KONG

☆ Bond fund managers head for third year of losses for first time in decades
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Reuters GraphicsEuropean funds have effectively returned nothing this year after two down years, Morningstar data shows. Government bond funds have fared even worse and are set for three years of losses in both the U.S. and Europe. Bond yields rise as prices fall, and vice versa. Reuters GraphicsBank of America said there were $5.6 billion of inflows to long-dated Treasury funds last week, the largest on record. ICI data shows that U.S. money market funds have ballooned to $5.6 trillion in assets, from $4.6 trillion in October last year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Stefano Fiorini, Oliver Blackbourn, Janus Henderson, You've, Jonas Goltermann, Max Kettner, Harry Robertson, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters Graphics, Morningstar, U.S, Generali Investments Partners, Reserve, Reuters, Treasury, Citi, ICE, Fed, Capital Economics, Investment Company Institute, Reuters Graphics Bank of America, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ICI, HSBC, Thomson Locations: Europe, U.S

☆ Europe’s economy risks a recession after output falls in the third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

London CNN —The euro area economy risks falling into recession later this year after official data Tuesday showed that output shrank in the third quarter. The dip follows a rise of only 0.2% in the April-to-June quarter and highlights the fine line between contraction and growth in the eurozone. GDP was stagnant in the final three months of 2022 and the first quarter of this year. The economy, he added, will “remain sluggish” whether or not the eurozone suffers a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. In a more positive development, separate data showed that inflation continued to ease this month.

Persons: ” Jack Allen, Reynolds Organizations: London CNN, Gross, Eurostat, Capital Economics

☆ Big government will drive the next market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Growth picked up while quiescent inflation permitted interest rates to fall. Bereft of government support, central banks tried to stimulate their economies by pushing interest rates to new lows. That means interest rates will struggle to return to the ultra-low levels seen after 2008. The first takeaway is that higher debt levels, inflation and interest rates should be bad for bonds. Vincent Deluard of StoneX has proposed a division between intangible and tangible companies.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, ” Ronald Reagan’s, Milton Friedman –, Britain’s Margaret Thatcher –, Reaganomics ”, Réka Juhász, Nathan J, Lane, Dani Rodrik, government’s, Vincent Deluard, StoneX, Lockheed Martin, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Republicans, Capitol, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank, Asset, Monetary Fund, Treasury, Capital Economics, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Capital, Facebook, Meta, Lockheed, Micron Technology, U.S, Congress, Nasdaq, Energy, Exxon Mobil, Labour Party, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, “, Ukraine, Covid, Europe, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan

Six of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were trading lower, with information technology (.SPLRCT) leading losses. Pfizer's shares (PFE.N) fell 1.5% after the drugmaker reported its first quarterly loss since 2019. U.S. equities are tracking their third straight month in the red, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) on course for their worst October since 2018. The Fed kicks off a two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. The Fed's commentary on Wednesday would be crucial in assessing how long monetary policy could stay restrictive amid recent signs of economic strength.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Andrew Hunter, Amruta Khandekar, Shashwat Chauhan, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Shounak Dasgupta, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Corp, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Nvidia, Microsoft, Caterpillar, Chicago PMI, Capital Economics, Dow Jones, PDD Holdings, VF Corp, Vans, Arista Networks, Sarepta Therapeutics, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Bengaluru

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The inflation that has been wearing on European consumers fell sharply to 2.9% in October, its lowest in more than two years as fuel prices fell and rapid interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank took hold. Inflation fell from an annual 4.3% in September as fuel prices fell by 11.1% and painful food inflation slowed, to 7.5%. The lower inflation figure follows a rapid series of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank. The future path of inflation toward the ECB's target remain uncertain because core inflation, excluding volatile fuel and food prices, remains higher than the headline figure, at 4.2%. The current burst of inflation was set off as the global economy rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to shortages of parts and raw materials.

Persons: Rory Fennessy, ”, Jack Allen, Reynolds Organizations: European Central Bank, European, Oxford Economics, European Central Bank . Higher, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, France, Europe, Russian, Ukraine, Moscow, U.S

☆ Why the Fed could be wrong — again — on its latest interest rate call
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"The Fed has never kept the target fed funds rate at peak levels for longer than nine months after a tightening cycle," Arone said. Nine months from now, at least based on history, the target fed funds rate is likely to be lower, not higher." He also sees lower rates ahead and pointed out the history of what happens with tight monetary policy. "The market is eager for lower rates or rate cuts. If the Fed has to rate cuts, it's likely because we're in recession or something in the capital markets is broken," he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, aren't, Michael Arone, Powell, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Arone, Barry Sternlicht, —, I'm, They've, Thomas Ryan, Nick Elfner, Elfner, Breckinridge, Street's Arone Organizations: Federal, U.S, SPDR, State Street Global Advisors, Fed, JPMorgan, Starwood Capital, Future Investment Initiative, Capital Economics, Breckinridge Capital Advisors Locations: United States, Saudi Arabia, U.S, Breckinridge

☆ Asia stocks mull over Middle East, central bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The earnings season also continues with Apple, Airbnb, McDonald's, Moderna and Eli Lilly & Co among the many reporting this week. Early on Monday, S&P 500 futures had edged up 0.3% to 4,151, while Nasdaq futures added 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.1% amid speculation the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might tweak its yield curve control (YCC) policy after its two-day policy meeting wraps up on Tuesday. The Bank of England is also expected to stay on hold this week, with markets pricing around a 70% chance it is done tightening altogether. Oil prices eased as worries about demand outweighed risks to Middle East supplies, at least for the moment.

Persons: Issei Kato, BoE, BOJ, Eli Lilly, China Evergrande, Treasuries, Goldman Sachs, reacceleration, Brent, Wayne Cole, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, Apple, Moderna, Nasdaq, HK, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Barclays, Treasury, NatWest, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Capital, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Gaza, payrolls SYDNEY, United States, Britain, McDonald's, Gaza's, Iranian, Asia, Pacific, China, Israel, East

☆ Investors on edge as Middle East conflict intensifies
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investors have grown more worried about a widening conflict in recent days after the U.S. dispatched more military assets to the Middle East while Israel attacked targets in Gaza and Hamas supporters in Lebanon and Syria. Some investors also expect a widening conflict could prompt safe-haven buying of Treasuries. "However, an escalation of the conflict would likely shift attention away from monetary policy concerns and boost safe-haven demand for Treasuries." The Cboe Volatility index (.VIX) has climbed in the wake of the conflict and rose on Friday, approaching seven-month highs. The Federal Reserve is set to give its latest monetary policy statement on Wednesday, while Apple's quarterly results highlights another busy week of corporate reports.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab, Brent, Peter Cardillo, Lewis Krauskopf, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Hamas, Investors, U.S, Capital Economics, Spartan Capital Securities, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Gaza, East, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Treasuries, U.S

☆ Explainer: What is pushing the Nigerian naira to record lows?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Chijioke Ohuocha | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors cheered when Tinubu lifted the currency controls, hoping a unified exchange rate would make it easier to access foreign currency, but that is yet to happen. Banks then repaid foreign credit lines with their own funds when the central bank did not pay out. New central bank governor Yemi Cardoso said clearing the backlog was a priority but he gave no timeline for how long it would take. The country's forex reserves fell to $33.5 billion in September from $37 billion in January, central bank data shows. Banks use their open net positions on foreign currency to finance short-term trade lines without resorting to the central bank for bidding.

Persons: Bola Tinubu, Tinubu, corporates, Banks, Yemi Cardoso, Chijioke Ohuocha, MacDonald Dzirutwe, Hugh Lawson Organizations: JPMorgan, FX, National Economic Council, BANK, Thomson Locations: ABUJA, Nigeria

Nabiullina also said the budget was a significant factor in Friday's decision. "It looks like today's interest rate hike front-loaded the tightening cycle in response to the fiscal announcements earlier this month," said Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. The central bank's tightening cycle began this summer when inflationary pressure from a tight labour market, strong consumer demand and the budget deficit was compounded by the falling rouble. But the bank set its 2023 key rate range at 15-15.2%, suggesting rates could climb further and Nabiullina said that may be required. Sinara Investment Bank analyst Sergei Konygin said the lack of forward hawkish guidance meant it was highly likely the key rate had already reached its upper boundary.

Persons: Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, Liam Peach, Dmitry Polevoy, Sergei Konygin, Vladimir Soldatkin, Elena Fabrichnaya, Alexander Marrow, Gareth Jones, Mark Trevelyan, John Stonestreet, Mike Harrison Organizations: Bank, Russia, Bank of Russia, Capital Economics, Reuters, Sinara Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Ukraine, Moscow, Locko, London

The data reinforces expectations the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will revise up its inflation forecasts when it produces fresh quarterly projections at next week's policy meeting. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.7% in October from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, exceeding market forecasts for a 2.5% gain. The so-called "core core" index that strips away both fresh food and fuel prices - closely watched by the BOJ as a gauge of broader price trends - rose 3.8% in October from a year earlier after a 3.9% increase in September, the data showed. "With services inflation continuing to accelerate, it will take a long time before inflation falls back below the BOJ's 2% target." The BOJ remains a global dovish outlier, having maintained ultra-loose policy even as major central banks elsewhere raised interest rates aggressively to fight rampant inflation.

Persons: Androniki, Marcel Thieliant, Takahiko Wada, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Asia

☆ China to issue $137 bln sovereign debt to support economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Reuters reported on Monday that China's parliament was set to approve just over 1 trillion yuan in additional sovereign debt issuance, citing sources. "The additional fiscal support approved today is the intervention we had been expecting and that was needed to prevent an abrupt fiscal tightening in China in the closing weeks of the year," said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics. China has previously let local governments issue bonds ahead of the annual session of parliament, which approves government budget plans and is usually held in March. Local governments had been told to complete the issuance of the 2023 quota of 3.8 trillion yuan in special local bonds by September to fund infrastructure projects. The government has not disclosed the size of local governments' 2024 frontloaded bond quotas.

Persons: Mark Williams, Williams, Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang, Ella Cao, Jason Neely, Susan Fenton Organizations: Xinhua, Reuters, National People's Congress, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Asia, Beijing

"When the 10-year yield goes up, it will have a knock-on effect for almost everything," according to Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School. There are many factors driving the recent spike in Treasury yields, economists said. Most of the recent jump in Treasury yields is due to a so-called term premium, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. Student loans could get pricierThere is also a correlation between Treasury yields and student loans. The government sets the annual rates on those loans once a year, based on the 10-year Treasury.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mark Hamrick, Brett House, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity, Freddie Mac, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James Organizations: Federal, Stock, Fed, Columbia Business School, Treasury, Capital Economics Locations: U.S

☆ Javier Milei wants Argentina to swap the peso for the US dollar. Here's what that would mean
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

For years, Argentinians have preferred to pay for many goods and services in greenbacks, rather than with their own collapsing currency, as part of an informal “blue dollar” currency market. To dollarize its economy, Argentina would need to exchange all pesos held by its people and businesses for US dollars, and assign a dollar value to all of its assets and contracts. The Fed would continue to set the cost of borrowing based on the needs of the US economy, not Argentina’s. Practical headacheThere’s another significant snag in Milei’s plan: Argentina doesn’t have enough dollars to ditch the peso. “People would need to take wheelbarrows of cash to convert to dollars,” Sabatini said.

Persons: Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Argentina’s, JP Morgan, Argentinians, Milei, Natacha, Matias Baglietto, Reuters “ That’s, ” Christopher Sabatini, Kimberley Sperrfechter, ” Sperrfechter, It’s, ” Sabatini, Luis Robayo, Sabatini, ” Organizations: London CNN, National Institute of Statistics, Argentina’s, US Federal Reserve, Economic, Reuters, America, Chatham House, CNN, Capital Economics, International Monetary Fund, Getty, IMF Locations: Argentina, greenbacks, Washington, El Salvador, Panama, Ecuador, United States, Buenos Aires, AFP

Summary Sept core consumer prices up 2.8% yr/yr vs f'cast +2.7%Core-core index up 4.2% yr/yr in Sept - govtData among factors to come under scrutiny at BOJ's Oct meetingTOKYO, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Japan's core inflation in September slowed below the 3% threshold for the first time in over a year but stayed above the central bank target, keeping alive expectations that policymakers will phase out ultra-easy monetary policy. "While inflation weakened in September, we think inflation will only fall below the BoJ's 2% target by the end of next year," said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics. The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.8% in September from a year earlier - the first time it has slowed below 3% since August 2022, government data showed on Friday. All the same, the rate has tracked above the BOJ's 2% target for 18 straight months. Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Marcel Thieliant, Takahiko Wada, Leika, Muralikumar Anantharaman Organizations: Bank of Japan, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia

"When the 10-year yield goes up, it will have a knock-on effect for almost everything," according to Columbia Business School economics professor Brett House. Why Treasury yields have jumpedA bond's yield is the total annual return investors get from bond payments. There are many factors driving the recent spike in Treasury yields, economists said. Student loans could get pricierThere is also a correlation between Treasury yields and student loans. The government sets the annual rates on those loans once a year, based on the 10-year Treasury.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mark Hamrick, Brett House, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Freddie Mac, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James Organizations: Treasury, Columbia Business School, Fed, Capital Economics Locations: U.S

☆ The US debt mountain is growing so fast the government could soon be spending more on interest payments than on defense
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The government is likely to spend more on interest payments than on defense over the next five years, per Capital Group. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US's mountain of debt is growing every day – and the government could soon be spending more on interest payments than on defense, according to Capital Group. "Over the next five years, net interest payments on the debt are expected to surpass defense spending." Capital Economics, Congressional Budget OfficeThe idea that interest payments could soon surpass defense spending could be a source of concern for policymakers, with President Joe Biden pledging Monday to ask Congress for over $100 billion worth of funding to support both Israel and Ukraine. "Slower economic growth also could be expected, given that government spending would need to be re-routed to debt service," he added.

Persons: —, Darrell Spence, Spence, Joe Biden Organizations: Group, Treasury, Service, Capital Group, Congressional, Office, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve Locations: Israel, Ukraine

BANGKOK (AP) — Markets fell in Europe and Asia after China reported Wednesday that its economy grew at a 4.9% annual pace in July-September, down from 6.3% in the previous quarter. The future for the S&P 500 lost 0.2% and that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.1% lower. Weak global demand and the property industry remain the biggest shadows overhanging the economy in the near term, economists said. “The wider data on the property sector remained weak, although green shoots are appearing,” Capital Economics said in a report. Bank of New York Mellon rose 3.8% after it also reported stronger profit than expected for the latest quarter.

Persons: Germany's DAX, Wyndham, Brent, Writers Zen Soo, Stan Choe Organizations: —, CAC, FTSE, Dow Jones, Bureau of Statistics, Nikkei, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Nvidia, Bank of America, Wall, Bank of New, Bank of New York Mellon, Wyndham Hotels, Resorts, ”, New York Mercantile Exchange, AP, Writers Zen Locations: BANGKOK, Europe, Asia, China, Paris, Shanghai, Tokyo, Bank of New York, Iran

☆ UK regular pay growth slows for first time since January
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Private-sector regular pay - the component looked at most closely by the BoE - saw annual growth slow to 8.0% in the three months to August, from 8.1%. Regular pay, adjusted for CPI inflation, grew by an annual 0.7% in the three months to August. Reuters GraphicsSLUGGISH ECONOMYBank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Monday that fast rates of nominal pay growth stood at odds with most other labour market measures, which have pointed to a slowing economy. The number of job vacancies in the three months to September fell to a two-year low of 988,000, Tuesday's data showed. Unemployment figures and other related labour market data will not be published until Oct. 24, after the ONS said on Friday it needed more time to take account of low response rates.

Persons: Kevin Coombs, BoE, James Smith, Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Huw Pill, payrolls, Ashley Webb, Webb, Sachin Ravikumar, William Schomberg, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, LONDON, Bank of England, Britain's, National Statistics, Reuters, U.S, Bank, England's, ING, Private, of England, International Monetary, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain

☆ Oil falls more that $1 a barrel on Venezuela deal hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"The reported deal ... would help to raise the country's oil output from very depressed levels," said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist for Capital Economics. Monday's falling prices appeared to "a breather to take in events in the Middle East" as opposed to expected production increases in Venezuela, said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "Negotiations with Venezuela could lead to a surge in exports of crude oil that is already in inventory," Lipow said. "It's more of the same on Monday in terms of the conflict in the Middle East being contained from affecting crude oil supplies," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC. Heightened tensions in the Middle East may have compounded other risk factors to push prices higher last week, market sources said.

Persons: William Jackson, Jackson, Andrew Lipow, Lipow, John Kilduff, Vladimir Putin, Putin, John Evans Organizations: U.S . West Texas, Capital Economics, Brent, Lipow Oil Associates, Traders, Hamas, LLC, U.S Locations: U.S, Venezuela, Israel, Venezuelan, Gaza, Russia, Iran, Syria, Egypt, Moscow, Russian, Saudi

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