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☆ Gold rises as dollar weakens ahead of Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, helped by a softer dollar as slowing U.S. inflation cemented bets that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged later in the day. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,948.49 per ounce by 05:00 GMT. Markets are pricing in a roughly 90% chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged, according to CME's Fedwatch tool. While gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, higher rates to tame price pressures generally weigh on the non-yielding asset's appeal. Spot silver climbed 0.7% to $23.8439 per ounce, platinum rose 0.3% to $979.37, while palladium was flat at $1,361.01.

Persons: Clifford Bennett, " Bennett, Nicholas Frappell Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, ACY Securities, Fed, ABC Refinery Locations: Siberian, Krasnoyarsk, Russia, U.S

☆ It's Fed Day. Here's what markets are eyeing as Powell gets ready to speak.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve is set to announce a critical policy decision today — hike (possibly), pause (likely), or cut (probably not). The Fed has made 10 consecutive rate hikes leading up to today, making for one of its most aggressive tightening campaigns ever. Tuesday's cooler-than-expected inflation data is still double the Fed's 2% target, which suggests there could be more hawkishness ahead. Meanwhile, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel suggested in a separate note that the Fed may actually be done with policy tightening altogether. He explained that, since he doesn't see a recession, the stock market could actually rally higher across all sectors because of investor FOMO.

Persons: Jerome Powell, David Bahnsen, Mohamed El, —, Christopher Waller, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Powell, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Tom Lee, FOMO, Read, Warren Buffett's, they're, Qatar's Sheikh Jassim, Jim Ratcliffe, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Federal, Reuters, Bahnsen, Reserve, Spar Group, Capital Economics, Berkshire Hathaway, Manchester United Locations: New York, London

The small-cap index Russell 2000 (.RUT) ticked higher as investors kept moving away from megagap and growth stocks after their strong gains. Recently, U.S. shares have been boosted by a megacap stocks rally and a stronger-than-expected earnings season, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) up almost 20% from its October 2022 lows. Wells Fargo raised the price target on Netflix (NFLX.O) shares to $500 from $400, the highest on Wall Street, according to Refinitiv. Energy index (.SPNY) rose after oil prices edged higher, while the KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) hit a two-month high. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 16.31 points, or 0.38%, to end at 4,267.54 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 170.59 points, or 1.28%, to 13,105.83.

Persons: Wells, Russell, we've, Paul Baiocchi, jitters, Wells Fargo, Campbell, Shubham Batra, Shristi, Vinay Dwivedi, Richard Chang, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Netflix, Nasdaq, SS, C ALPS Advisors, Treasury, Bank of Canada, Federal, Dow Jones, Yext, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Invest, Thomson Locations: megagap, U.S, KBW, York, Coinbase, Bengaluru

☆ Futures inch lower on Fed policy caution, China data hits sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Futures down: Nasdaq 0.16%, Dow 0.13%, S&P 0.08%June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week, while worse-than-expected China exports data for May hit sentiment. U.S. shares have also been boosted by a rally in megacap stocks and a stronger-than-expected earnings season. However, some analysts say that profit-taking may be round the corner for big tech and other major growth stocks. ET, Dow e-minis were down 43 points, or 0.13%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 3.5 points, or 0.08%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 23.25 points, or 0.16%. Shares of Yext Inc jumped 18.4% premarket after the New York-based online marketing firm raised its annual earnings forecast.

Persons: Charalampos Pissouros, Wells Fargo, Shubham Batra, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, XM, Dow e, Netflix, Securities and Exchange Commission, Invest, Yext Inc, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Coinbase, York, Bengaluru

☆ Stocks gain, dollar stumbles as US averts default and Fed skip bets rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Markets are now focused on U.S. jobs data due at 0830 EST (1230 GMT), the most significant macroeconomic release of the week, for more cues on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path. European mining stocks (.SXPP) increased 4.4%, boosted by a Bloomberg report China is working on new measures to support its property market. Copper prices were heading for their first weekly gain since April with other metals trading higher too. Spot gold was up marginally at $1,979 an ounce, but set for its biggest weekly gain in nearly two months, as a softer dollar and lower yields bolstered the bullion's appeal. Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Kim Coghill, Sriraj Kalluvila and Andrew HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid LONDON, Jefferson, Jeff Schulze, payrolls, Philip Jefferson, Joe Biden, Phil Shucksmith, We've, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln, Kim Coghill, Sriraj Kalluvila, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Labor, U.S . Senate, Bloomberg, Asia Pacific, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Senate, Newton Investment, Investors, U.S . Treasury, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Japan

☆ Oil ticks up as markets weigh U.S. debt deal, rate hike possibility
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The euphoria of the debt deal is wearing off as concern mounts for another rate hike by the Fed in June," brokerage Liquidity Energy LLC wrote in a note. U.S. President Joe Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the weekend forged an agreement to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and cap government spending for the next two years. Still, analysts saw any boost in oil prices from it as short-lived. "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," IG Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said. The dollar also nudged down on Monday as the debt ceiling deal lifted risk appetite in world markets and dented the greenback's safe-haven appeal.

☆ Oil dips as rate hike fears offset U.S. debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HOUSTON, May 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday as worries over further interest rate hikes that could curb energy demand trumped a tentative U.S. debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's top oil consumer. "The euphoria of the debt deal is wearing off as concern mounts for another rate hike by the Fed in June," brokerage Liquidity Energy LLC wrote in a note. Still, analysts saw any boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short-lived, with earlier gains in the session now lost. "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," IG Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said. However, comments from Russian oil officials and sources, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, indicate the world's third-largest oil producer is leaning towards leaving output unchanged.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Debt ceiling deal may shift investor focus to further Fed action
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Megacap technology and growth stocks, which benefit from lower interest rates, have led the market's advance. A Congressional package raising the debt ceiling, meanwhile, is expected to cap spending on government programs. The debt ceiling impasse had weighed on stocks in recent days, but for the most part investors had been expecting Washington to reach a deal. At the same time, the equity market has only just begun to start pricing in more Fed hikes, she added. "The ongoing effects of monetary policy now are setting us up for this wall of debt that people aren't talking about with enough vigor," he said.

☆ Data lifts dollar, euro soft as Germany enters recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar rose for a fourth straight session on Thursday against a basket of major peers to hit a fresh two-month high, as U.S. economic data signaled resilience even after the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike cycle. In contrast the German economy, Europe's largest, was in recession in the first quarter as GDP fell 0.3%, sending the euro lower. The dollar index rose 0.27% at 104.100 after hitting 104.27, its highest since March 17. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said on Thursday the time may be at hand for the U.S. central bank to pause its rate hike cycle. Worries about a potential U.S. default supported the dollar as talks continue in Washington to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.

Persons: Joe Manimbo, CME's, Susan Collins, Fitch, DBRS Morningstar, Kevin McCarthy, Sterling Organizations: Washington DC, Fed, Boston Federal, U.S, Treasury, AAA, White House, Republican Locations: Brest, France, U.S, Washington, United States

REUTERS/Ralph OrlowskiSINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) - Global shares rose to a one-month high and the dollar trounced major currencies on Friday as markets reflected increased hopes for a deal over the U.S. debt ceiling that could avoid a calamitous default. The moves came after Democratic negotiators told President Joe Biden they were making "steady progress" on a deal to lift the U.S. debt ceiling and avoid a default by the world's largest economy, whose currency and Treasury debt markets underpin global trade and investment. "It's a high risk but low probability event," said Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at European fund manager Carmignac, said of the debt ceiling. Debt ceiling relief complicates the outlook for U.S. government bonds, where yields broadly track Federal Reserve interest rates, as fading recession risk could prompt the world's most influential central bank to keep monetary policy tight as inflation remains high. Elsewhere in markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 (.N225) hit its highest since 1990, reflecting debt ceiling optimism as well as the fact global investors are returning to Japan as its economy and corporate governance improve.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets on hold for US CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookSterling and the euro seem to be losing steam as currency markets tuck themselves in for a nap. Today's inflation data, due at 1230 GMT, could offer a jolt if the surprise factor is big enough. Economists polled by Reuters see core CPI steady at a monthly 0.4%. Beyond the inflation data, U.S. default risks and banking wobbles loom as the next likely focus. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:U.S. CPI dataReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - A gauge of global equities fell on Tuesday after weak Chinese trade data sparked concerns about China's domestic demand recovery, while the impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling sparked a sharp sell-off in short-dated Treasury bills. Investors fear a government default if Congress fails to resolve the debt ceiling deadlock as early as June 1. Longer-dated Treasury yields were little changed as investors waited for key U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.256%. Gold prices edged higher as some investors sought cover from economic uncertainty, including the debt ceiling deadlock.

☆ While Asia markets may cheer a Fed pause, watchers are split on growth prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Ping Shu | Moment | Getty ImagesWhile a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle would lead to stronger Asian currencies, the region's recent earnings and disappointing Chinese economic data leave watchers split on the growth outlook. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconA Fed pause could boost U.S. stocks, but its effect on regional growth in Asia may not be as straightforward. Nomura's equity strategists kept their views for Asia-Pacific stocks unchanged despite the likelihood of a potential Fed pause, maintaining its year-end target for MSCI Asia ex-Japan. "Nonetheless, in our base case, we do not expect a meaningful decline in Asian stocks. "Asian investors' big worry surrounds China," he said, pointing to the "unsustainability of consumption rebound, especially against the backdrop of persistently high youth unemployment levels."

☆ Stock futures are flat to start the week
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on February 01, 2023 in New York City. U.S. stock futures were flat on Sunday evening. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 10 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were flat. Stocks are coming off a volatile week that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 notch their worst weekly stretches since March. The Dow on Friday added more than 546 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite popped 1.85% and 2.25% respectively.

Traders had been betting that process would be relatively quick, allowing the Fed to reverse course and start easing the policy rate, now in the 5.00%-5.25%, as early as September. Friday's Labor Department report showing employers added 253,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% put those expectations in doubt. "The Fed still has some work to do and the job market’s hot," said Ameriprise FInancial's chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene. But by far the bigger bet is for the Fed to stand pat next month, and overall traders left bets on a September start to rate cuts intact. By December the Fed will have dropped its benchmark rate to about 4.2%, interest-rate futures prices suggest.

☆ Futures waver as PacWest slide offsets Fed pause optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed over the past 14 months has raised rates by 500 basis points to tame price pressures in its most aggressive policy tightening since the 1980s. The KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) and S&P 500 Banks index (.SPXBK) have lost around 29% and 15% so far in 2023. Investors will also monitor weekly jobless claims for further clues on the state of the labor market. Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O) slumped 6.7% after third-quarter forecasts missed estimates, while Etsy Inc (ETSY.O) gained 3% on beating expectations for quarterly revenue. Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Big Tech earnings, crucial inflation call — here comes the biggest week of earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Stocks stuck to a holding pattern this week as investors brace for an incoming wave of Big Tech earnings and the Fed's favorite inflation reading. Earnings reports have generally been better than expected so far this first quarter. Humana (HUM) reports before the bell Wednesday; Meta Platforms and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) report after the bell Wednesday. ET: Personal Spending & Income (includes PCE Price Index) Club trades this week Just one trade: We added 150 shares of Coterra Energy (CTRA) on Wednesday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ The US economy is facing the ultimate 'trilemma' as the Fed desperately tries to get inflation down, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Policymakers are navigating a "trilemma [of] price stability, maximum jobs, and also financial stability," he told Bloomberg TV. Meanwhile, a credit contraction in the bank sector is equivalent to 25-50 basis points of tightening. "This just makes the Feds' ability to navigate this trilemma [of] price stability, maximum jobs, and also financial stability that much harder," he told Bloomberg Television Thursday. The credit contraction will have a similar effect on the economy that Fed rate hikes do, equivalent to about 25 to 50 basis points, El-Erian estimated. The central bank has been on a monetary tightening campaign for over a year, raising borrowing costs by 475 basis points to combat decades-high inflation.

TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, lifted by rising Treasury yields, though the pound gained against the greenback after British inflation stayed above 10% in March and put more pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising rates. "We still think that over the medium- to long-term that the dollar is going to continue to come under considerable amounts of pressure. Wednesday data showed British consumer price inflation eased less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%, meaning Britain has western Europe's highest rate of consumer inflation. Deutsche Bank on Wednesday revised up expectations for British rates to include two more 25 basis point rate hikes from the Bank of England. Currency bid prices at 2:42PM (1842 GMT)Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stocks dip, yields rise on rate hike expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The two-year gilt yield was down 0.2 basis points at 3.820% after hitting 3.877%, its highest since March 7. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 3.6 basis points to 3.608% after reaching 3.639%, its highest since March 22. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 7 basis points at 4.269%. The dollar also firmed on Fed hike expectations, showing signs of stabilizing after five straight weeks of declines. The dollar strength, in turn, helped curb crude prices, along with concerns that the Fed rate hikes could dent growth and drag demand.

☆ Stocks retreat, yields climb on rate hike expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Expectations for more hikes from central banks pushed yields higher after Britain reported a slight decline in inflation in March, but remained the only country in western Europe in double-digits. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 6.6 basis points at 4.265%. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.11% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.34%. The dollar also firmed on Fed hike expectations, showing signs of stabilizing after five straight weeks of declines. The dollar strength, in turn, helped curb crude prices, along with concerns the Fed rate hikes could dent growth and drag demand.

☆ Stocks advance, US 10-year yield slips as earnings roll in
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Reuters GraphicsGoldman peer Bank of America (BAC.N) veered between gains and losses in choppy trading after its earnings beat estimates, and was last up 0.63%. "Earnings season so far has actually been better than expected by far on both earnings and revenues," said Randy Frederick, managing director, trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.38% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.24%. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.3 basis points to 3.578% while the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, was up 2.8 basis points at 4.216%. U.S. crude settled up 0.04% at $80.86 per barrel and Brent was at $84.77, up 0.01% on the day.

☆ Wall St dips to lower close as rate hike bets firm, banks jump
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Today we're taking bit of a breather," said Sal Bruno, chief investment officer at IndexIQ in New York. Citigroup Inc (C.N), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) beat earnings expectations, benefiting from rising interest rates and easing fears of stress in the banking system. The S&P 500 banking sector (.SPXBK) jumped 3.5% and JPMorgan Chase surged 7.6%, its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 9, 2020. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, seven ended the session lower, with real estate (.SPLRCR) falling most. The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 47 new highs and 205 new lows.

☆ Wall St slides as rate hike expectations firm, banks surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"As expected, the bigger banks were probably not harmed that much by the regional banking turmoil, and possibly even beneficiaries of it," Mayfield added. "We saw mostly strong and healthy balance sheets, and it's pretty clear (the regional banking) crisis isn't systemic." The S&P 500 banking sector (.SPXBK) jumped 3.4% and JPMorgan Chase surged 7.3%, setting itself up for its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 9, 2020. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, financials (.SPSY) were the sole gainers. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 37 new highs and 182 new lows.

☆ Slowing US inflation shifts investor focus to earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wednesday’s data showed consumer prices growing at a slower pace than expected last month, bolstering the argument that inflation is decelerating. Yet some investors believe markets may have already accounted for a mild inflation slowdown and say further gains in stocks could depend on whether upcoming corporate earnings - especially results from banks - can beat forecasts. Earnings per share for the six largest U.S. banks are expected to fall 10% from the same quarter last year, according to Refinitv data. Overall, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% in the first quarter of 2023 from the year-ago period, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv as of April 7 showed. That weakness would come on the heels of a 3.2% earnings fall in the fourth quarter of 2022, a back-to-back decline known as an earnings recession which has not occurred since COVID-19 blasted corporate results in 2020.

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