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☆ The latest sell-off may be the beginning of the end for the tech bubble, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The AI-fueled tech bubble could be approaching its end date, according to Paul Dietrich. The market strategist pointed to similarities between the recent tech sell-off and the dot-com crash. He pointed to the similarities between the dot-com crash and the latest drop in the stock market. AdvertisementThe flow of "smart money" in the market also suggests more downside could be on the way for tech stocks, Dietrich noted. Advertisement"What kind of evidence does one need to see that we are moving into a business cycle recession," Dietrich said.

Persons: Paul Dietrich, —, Dietrich, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang Organizations: Service, Riley Wealth, Nasdaq, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, Artificial Intelligence

☆ The popular 'carry trade' is unwinding — and economists fear Fed rate cuts could make matters worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Rapid interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could make matters worse for the global "carry trade" unwind, according to economists at TS Lombard. The warning comes as market participants seek to aggressively roll back on carry trades following a dramatic global sell-off in risk assets. Carry trades refer to operations wherein an investor borrows in a currency with low interest rates, such as the Japanese yen, and reinvests the proceeds in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. The readings led investors to worry that the Federal Reserve may be behind the curve in cutting interest rates to fend off a recession. But this would exacerbate any carry trade unwind," economists at TS Lombard said in a research note published Monday.

Persons: paring Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Stock, Federal Locations: Europe

☆ The yen carry trade unwind: A big complication for global markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In its simplest form, the yen carry trade has investors borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher yielding assets, often currencies. For example, because there is not a central source to track currency trades, we have no idea how big the yen carry trade is. The yen is rising, and that is making the yen carry trade less profitable. If the yen goes from 155 to 145, which is where it traded Monday, it will take $68,965 to repay that 10 million yen (10 million yen divided by 145 = $68,965). One positive sign: the ETF to watch is the Invesco Japanese Yen ETF (FXY), which tracks the price of the Japanese yen, had volume six times normal yesterday.

Persons: That's, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Nikkei, Street Journal, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S ., Yen ETF Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ Stifel strategist who called this summer pullback sees correction getting to at least double digits
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Pia Singh | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stifel Financial's Barry Bannister thinks the S & P 500 will see a steep pullback over the next couple of months. Bannister said Stifel's year-end target of 5,000 for the S & P 500 "seems appropriate right now" given the July jobs data and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. In early June, Bannister said the S & P 500 could drop to approximately 4,750 before the end of the third quarter of this year. The S & P 500 ended last week at 5,346.56. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 this year.

Persons: Stifel Financial's Barry Bannister, Bannister, Stifel's, Stifel, we've Organizations: CNBC, Traders

☆ Traders Wonder if the Fed Could Make an Emergency Rate Cut as Markets Tumble
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

As turmoil swept through global financial markets on Monday, fueled by concerns that the economy is headed for a hard landing, investors began to speculate that the Federal Reserve could jump in to cushion the fallout with an emergency interest rate cut. The Fed considers emergency cuts — ones that occur outside of its regularly scheduled meetings — for extreme situations. Joblessness rarely rises sharply outside of an economic downturn. The data fueled serious concerns that Fed officials have fallen behind on adjusting their policy stance. The risk is that Fed policymakers might have choked off demand too much for too long, causing a slowdown in the labor market that will begin to snowball into wider economic pain.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: United States

Last week, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.28%, and they're even lower today, according to Zillow data. What does this mean for mortgage rates? See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. As inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal, Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ The Fed's long-awaited rate cuts will open up the job market — but it could take a while
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe US job market has certainly seen better days. AdvertisementThose rate cuts will help pull the job market out of its slowdown — but likely not before the unemployment rate climbs higher, says Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. And even then, it could take time for the effects of rate cuts to fully work their way across the job market, said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. AdvertisementSlowdown in the pipelineUntil rate cuts kick in, Allen thinks the joblessness rate has even more room to climb. AdvertisementForward-looking indicators of job market strength have also been flashing signs of incoming weakness.

Persons: —, Oliver Allen, Allen, …, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Pantheon, Challenger, Gray &, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business

Mortgage rates are down in response to the labor market slowing. Average 30-year mortgage rates are now hovering in the low 6% range, according to Zillow data, the lowest they've been since January 2024. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowToday's refinance ratesMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. This is a significant slowdown compared when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022, which means mortgage rates should start trending down soon. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

Persons: you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: U.S, Chevron

☆ Why investors should buy the ongoing dip in stocks, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Technical signals suggest downside is limitedThere isn't much evidence that poor-performing areas of the market, like small-cap stocks, have peaked, Newton said. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have fallen in recent months as traders anticipate Fed rate cuts, which is typically bullish for stocks, he added. Advertisement"Thus, looking to buy dips makes sense technically," he said, adding that small-cap stocks looked "certainly appealing" after their recent slide. Fed rate cuts will mark a turning point in the marketThat's because rate cuts are expected to ease borrowing costs across several sectors. Small-cap stocks are flashing bullish signalsThe Russell 2000 hit a 30-month high in July, something that's only happened nine times over the past 45 years.

Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, —, Tom Lee, who's, Mark Newton, Newton, I'm, Russell, That's Organizations: Tech, Service, Fed, Wall Street Locations: Wall

☆ Mortgage rates plunge to the lowest level in over a year after weak employment report
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage dropped 22 basis points to 6.4% Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily. The 15-year fixed rate fell to 5.89%, its lowest level since early May 2023. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. The 30-year fixed rate started the week at 6.81%, so the drop in just the past five days is dramatic. Buyers were battling not just high interest rates but high home prices and a lack of supply.

Persons: Jerome, Powell didn't, Matthew Graham, Graham, Mike Fratantoni Organizations: Mortgage News, Treasury, Federal, Buyers, Mortgage, Association, Mortgage Bankers Association

For now, Fed officials think the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness suggest the labor market is returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. But while that approach is cautious when it comes to price increases, it could prove to be risky when it comes to the labor market. But that chain reaction can come at a serious cost to the job market. For now, Fed officials think that the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness signal that labor market conditions are returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. Fed rate moves take time to work, so if the central bank only starts to cut borrowing costs when the job market is showing serious signs of strain, it could be moving too late.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Neil Dutta, ” Mr, “, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Macro Locations: joblessness, “

☆ Fed Will Scour Jobs Report for Signs of Weakness
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials held off on cutting interest rates this week because they want slightly more data to feel confident that inflation is truly coming under control. But while that approach is cautious when it comes to price increases, it could prove to be risky when it comes to the labor market. High Fed interest rates help to cool inflation by slowing demand in the economy. And as inflation comes down, Fed policymakers are increasingly attuned to the risk that they might overdo it, tipping the economy into a severe enough slowdown that it pushes unemployment higher and leaves Americans out of work. Those concerns were not enough to prod central bankers to cut interest rates at their meeting this week.

Organizations: Federal

☆ Everything you need to know about when a rate cut could happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Now the central bank is mulling over when to do something it hasn’t done since the darkest days of the pandemic: cut interest rates. “A rate cut could be on the table in the September meeting,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, immediately jolting markets. When will the Fed cut rates? Rate cut probabilityThat said, investors are entirely convinced the Fed will cut rates at their September meeting, according to Fed funds futures data. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global’s chief economist, is maintaining his prior forecast that the Fed won’t cut rates at all this year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, we’re, It’s, Powell, ”, ” Powell, Torsten Slok, Apollo Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, European Central Bank, CNN Locations: New York, “

☆ I skipped college and became a boatbuilder. My friends who aren't in trade jobs envy me.
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Charissa Cheong | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

When I returned to France at 26, I enrolled in a yearlong boatbuilding course. I enrolled in a yearlong boatbuilding course, which was free because the government subsidized it. AdvertisementI'm very happy in my career and can see myself progressing, especially in the job I'm in now. I'm more suited to my trade job than a corporate settingNone of my close friends do a trade job. I don't tend to compare myself to others, but I think I'm just as happy and fulfilled as my friends.

Persons: —, Clémentine Mollier, I'd, I've, I'm Organizations: Service, Business, —, Portsmouth, National Museum of, Royal Navy, HMS Locations: Portsmouth, England, France, Australia, Asia, Canada, Costa Rica

☆ 6 top Goldman dealmakers, from Dan Dees to Gene Sykes, reflect on their careers at the investment bank, from junior banker to partner
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Reed Alexander | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Wall Street careers are notoriously grueling and littered with politicking and jockeying to climb the ranks. AdvertisementNow, these six partners are looking back on their own rise, offering words of wisdom from their own Wall Street origin stories. At Goldman Sachs, the core of who we are in investment banking is M&A. Gene Sykes, cochairman of global M&A and global TMT:Gene Sykes Courtesy of Goldman SachsThe market for M&A advice has evolved over time. Are you a Goldman Sachs or Wall Street insider?

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alison Mass, Stephan Feldgoise, Dan Dees, Hank Paulson, Tim Ingrassia, Alison, Goldman, Peter Weinberg, Gene Sykes, It's, Mark Sorrell, John Thornton, John Waldron, Karen Cook, Yoel Zaoui, Gregg Lemkau, it's, Jennifer Kopylov, Reed Alexander Organizations: Service, Wall, Partners, Business, US Treasury, Street, Goldman Locations: New York City, London, New York, Europe, American

Mortgage rates are often indirectly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, and as the Fed starts lowering its benchmark rate, mortgage rates are expected to go down as well. This means that as long as inflation continues to ease, mortgage rates should drop further this year. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates fell to 6.07% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they're expected to go down at some point this year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron

☆ Powell says September rate cut 'on the table' if inflation data continues to cool
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Recent economic data has pointed toward inflation data falling back toward the central bank's 2% target, while the unemployment rates has crept up above 4%. Powell said Wednesday that central bankers would be "data dependent, but not data-point dependent" in determining when to cut rates. "I don't know think of the labor market in its current state as a likely source of significant inflationary pressures. So I would not like to see material further cooling in the labor market," Powell said. Powell said Wednesday a potential 50-basis point rate cut is "not something we're thinking about right now."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Fed

☆ Politics Makes the Fed’s Job Trickier, but Doesn’t Drive Its Decisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in mid-September, not long before voters in the United States head to the polls to elect a new president. Central bankers will meet about rates again on Nov. 6-7, just days after the election. If they lower interest rates before the vote, there is a risk that Republicans will cast it as a politicized move meant to help Democrats: Lower borrowing costs can bolster the economy and markets. Former President Donald J. Trump, the Republican nominee, has already said the Fed should not be cutting rates leading up to November. But central bankers have been clear that they plan to set interest rates with an eye on inflation and job market data, while trying to ignore the election entirely.

Persons: Donald J, Trump Organizations: Federal, Republican Locations: United States

☆ Fed holds rates steady and notes progress on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowWASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday held short-term interest rates steady but indicated that inflation is getting closer to its target, which could open the door for future interest rate cuts. They also preserved a declaration that more progress is needed before rate reductions can happen. "In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective." Price pressures off 2022 peakEconomic data of late has indicated that price pressures are well off the boil from their peak in mid-2022, when inflation hit its highest level since the early 1980s. The Fed's preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, shows inflation around 2.5% annually, though other gauges indicate slightly higher readings.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Stocks, Price Organizations: WASHINGTON – Federal, Gross

☆ Stock market today: Nasdaq surges nearly 3% amid chip rally, dovish Fed comments
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Central bankers said they had more confidence inflation was back on track to 2%. Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut in September, per the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementUS stocks surged on Wednesday, driven by a rally in the tech sector and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve. The second quarter's inflation readings have added to our confidence, and more good data would further strengthen that confidence," Fed Chair Powell said in prepared remarks. Markets are now pricing in with certainty that the Fed will cut rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Persons: —, Powell, Philip Straehl, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Morningstar Wealth, AMD, Nvidia

☆ What to Watch as the Fed Meets on Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Economists and traders widely expect Fed officials to cut their policy rate at their next meeting, in September. Wall Street will closely watch for any hints about the future in both the Fed’s statement at 2 p.m. and a subsequent news conference with Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the central bank. And Mr. Powell is sure to face questions about how officials are thinking about the potential for moves after that. Watch the Fed’s statement for changes. The Fed’s statement, a slowly changing document that officials release after each two-day meeting, currently states that Fed policymakers expect to hold rates steady until they have “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably” down.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal

☆ Alexa Von Tobel Is the Super Connector of New York's Buzzy Tech Scene
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Samantha Stokes | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Inspired Capital co-founders Lucy Deland (left), Alexa von Tobel (center), and Mark Batsiyan (right) speak to portfolio companies at the firm's annual founder dinner in June 2024. Born and raised in Jacksonville, Florida, von Tobel attended Harvard University, where she graduated with a degree in psychology. AdvertisementInspired Capital co-founders Alexa von Tobel and Penny Pritzker. Inspired Capital founding partners Mark Batsiyan, Lucy Deland, Alexa von Tobel, and Penny Pritzker. Although von Tobel was on vacation outside the country, she stepped away from a fancy dinner to take McNulty Rojas's call and brainstorm solutions.

Persons: Alexa von Tobel, she's, Lucy Deland, Mark Batsiyan, It's, von Tobel, Capital's, who's, Zuckerburg, I've, Morgan Stanley, —, LearnVest, Batsiyan, Alexa, they'd, von Tobel's, Penny Pritzker, Obama, Brynne McNulty Rojas, — von Tobel, McNulty Rojas, Habi, Tobel, Von, Deland, it's, von, McNulty, hasn't, guac, She's, Benjamin Vandiver, Ivan Zhao, Lindsey Vonn Organizations: Flatiron, Business, New York VC, Harvard University, Facebook, Harvard Business School, Accel Partners, American Express Ventures, Northwest Mutual, LearnVest, Ventures, Northwest, Capital, Harvard, of Commerce, America Fund, Tiger Global Management, II, Alexa, Inc, Magazine, Winder, New York Locations: Jacksonville , Florida, New York, Deland, Miami, Latin America, York

☆ London's hedge fund rich are looking to avoid new taxes by relocating to Milan and Dubai. People who have made the move tell us what it's like.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Bradley Saacks | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

AdvertisementSeveral cities have been trying to take advantage of the new policy, including Dubai, Milan, and more. A recently relocated hedge fund manager in Milan is planning to visit London or New York six or seven times a year going forward. "The best type of knowledge comes from people, from frequent interaction with people," said a Milan-based hedge fund manager. Several people — based in spots such as Dubai, Milan, and Zurich — mentioned that people early in their careers should still prioritize working in the biggest cities though. Moving to the Middle East just to interact with fellow UK ex-pats doesn't add much diversification to a portfolio manager's life.

Persons: —, Julian Robertson, Muyshondt, Elena Partners, Steve Cohen's Point72, Sebastian Dickgiesser, Girish Chouhan, aren't, COVID, I'm, Alfonso Peccatiello, he's, Darren Wolf, abrdn, It's, Wolf, Zoom Organizations: Service, Tyrian Investments, Business, Labour, Henley & Partners, United Arab, Eisler Capital, Capstone Investment Advisors, Getty, London, Investors, —, pats Locations: New York, Cascais, Portugal, Lisbon, London, Florida, Hong Kong, Dubai, Milan, China, United Arab Emirates, Italy, Point72, Girish Chouhan Dubai, Abu Dhabi, India, East, Europe, Madrid, Zurich, Amsterdam, Netherlands, Brera, —, Milan's Brera, UAE

☆ It’s not the end of the world if the Fed doesn’t cut rates tomorrow
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve is all but certain to hold interest rates steady at its meeting this week. That’s why Torsten Slok, Apollo Global’s chief economist, is maintaining his prior forecast that the Fed won’t cut rates at all this year. “There are still two more CPI releases before the September 18 [Fed] meeting, so we have to wait and see if the downtrend in inflation continues,” he told CNN. Fed officials have signaled that September will be when they finally lower interest rates. The difference between a few months for that initial cut “really doesn’t matter unless there’s some big shock that hits the economy in that time,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this month.

Persons: Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman —, Blinder, what’s, Brandon Bell, Torsten Slok, Apollo, ”, Sean Snaith, it’s, Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, CNN, ” University of Central, ” Locations: New York, ” University of Central Florida, Iran, Israel

☆ Here's everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Market pricing currently indicates an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve its first reduction in more than four years — when it meets Sept. 17-18. They don't want investors to start pricing in a rate cut coming in September and there's literally nothing else that could possibly happen," he said. "Opening the door for that rate cut is probably the most appropriate thing for them at this point," Reynolds added. Expectations for easingGlenmede expects that starting in September, the Fed could cut at each of the three remaining meetings. The Fed will not provide an update on its quarterly summary of economic projections at this meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Kleponis, they've, Michael Reynolds, Reynolds, there's, it'll, Powell, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Mericle, Bill English, We've Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, AFP, Getty, Glenmede, Fed Locations: Washington ,, Yale, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

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