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American consumers and businesses are having a hard time paying off credit card, auto, and commercial real estate debt. Bank CEOs said on recent earnings calls that elevated prices and interest rates continue to weigh on Americans. According to Federal Reserve data, the past-due debt share for credit card, auto, and commercial real estate has recently risen to above pre-pandemic levels. That's because some loans are coming due — forcing businesses to refinance at much higher interest rates. The financial roller coaster of pandemic payments, whipsawing inflation, and high interest rates are especially affecting lower-income Americans.
Persons: , Wells Fargo's, haven't, Bruce McClary, David Schiff, Schiff, Edmunds, Stephen Biggar, Biggar, Jane Fraser, Brian Moynihan, Charles Scharf, Wells, Jeremy Barnum, There's, I'm Organizations: Bank, Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of, New, Fed, National Foundation, Credit, Argus Research, Bank of America's Locations: Wells Fargo, delinquencies
Bank stocks have outperformed in recent weeks as investors see an improved regulatory environment if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, according to Bank of America. The Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) , which tracks the KBW Bank Index, has climbed more than 6% since the start of October. By comparison, the S & P 500 has added less than 2% during the same period. "A Republican win would likely be viewed most positive for bank stocks in terms of returning to balance the regulatory environment." Either a Trump win with a split government or a Republican sweep would be seen as bullish for this group of stocks, Poonawala said.
Persons: Donald Trump, Ebrahim Poonawala, Trump, Poonawala, Kamala Harris, Harris, October's Organizations: White, Bank of America, KBW Bank, Republican, Department of Justice, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Citigroup, TD Bank, New York Community, Trump . Bank, Trump, Justice Department Locations: Wells Fargo
"Profits accelerating are far more important than who is sitting in the Oval Office," Subramanian said. Instead, the energy sector was the worst-performing sector when Trump was in office, losing 29% even as the S&P 500 surged 83%. Meanwhile, the clean energy sector rose 306% during Trump's presidency, according to data from YCharts. AdvertisementToday, the opposite is true: traditional energy stocks have been the best-performing sector during Biden's presidency, rising 139%, while the clean energy sector is the worst-performing sector, down about 55%. AdvertisementUltimately, Subramanian and her team expect the stock market to rise in 2025 regardless of who wins the election in November.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden, Elon Musk Organizations: Bank of America, Stock, Service, Capitol, Republican, White House Locations: YCharts
Piper Sandler reiterates Tesla as overweight Piper says it's sticking with Tesla heading into earnings later this week. Morgan Stanley initiates BioAge Labs at overweight Morgan Stanley says the biotech company is well positioned. " Goldman Sachs upgrades Warby Parker to buy from neutral Goldman sees customer growth for the eyewear company. Morgan Stanley reiterates Home Depot as overweight Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Home Depot to $450 per share from $380. Morgan Stanley downgrades ServiceNow to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley said that expectations are already priced in to the stock.
Persons: John Donovan, Piper Sandler, Tesla, Piper, it's bullish, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Warby Parker, Needham, Reddit, Gary Friedman, Jack Preston, Baird, TD Cowen, Cowen, Prologis, Goldman, Craig Felenstein, Jim Bombassei, Morgan Stanley downgrades ServiceNow Organizations: Deutsche Bank, GE Vernova, Deutsche, General Electric, BioAge, Barclays, UPS, FedEx, Dominion, Goldman, Nvidia, AMD, Mohawk Industries, JPMorgan, China EV, Catalyst, Bank of America, Fortune Locations: GitLab, NVDA, Europe, U.S, Las Vegas, China
Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are among the banks that have raised price targets in recent weeks. AdvertisementNvidia stock is trading at record highs, but that's not deterring top Wall Street analysts from being bullish. Goldman Sachs, $150 price targetGoldman analysts raised their price target to $150 from $135 a share, implying 6% upside from the stock's current levels. AdvertisementStrategists said they changed their price target after a meeting with Huang. Bernstein, $155 price targetBernstein raised its price target to $155 a share shortly after the chipmaker reported its second-quarter earnings in August.
Persons: Blackwell, Goldman Sachs, , Jensen Huang, Goldman, Huang, CFRA, Angelo Zino, NVDA, Zino, Bernstein, Rasgon Organizations: Nvidia, Bank of America, Service, Wall, Bank, Blackwell, Accenture, Microsoft, ServiceNow, Foundry, CNBC Locations: bullish, CY23, Blackwell
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which took effect in the beginning of 2018, overhauled the federal tax code. It roughly doubled the standard deduction, adjusted individual income tax brackets , lowered most of the rates and applied a $10,000 cap on the state and local tax deduction. Mutual funds tend to have higher turnover – that is, buying and selling of underlying securities – and by law they must distribute capital gains. Meanwhile, income from Treasurys are subject to federal income tax, but exempt from state and local tax. Seek tax-efficient opportunities for your holdings Take a look at your portfolio and see whether there are opportunities for tax-advantaged yield, Woodard said.
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard, MLPA Organizations: Bank of America, Mutual, Bloomberg, ETF, SEC, Muni, MLP & Energy Infrastructure, Global, MLP, MLPX, & $ Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are increasing concerns about global government debt levels, says metals analystMichael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America, discusses the gold market.
Persons: Michael Widmer Organizations: Bank of America
Odds of a "no landing" scenario for the economy are rising amid continued strong economic data. The "no landing" scenario entails a continued run of hot economic data and growth that boosts markets but also precludes a steep rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. According to Cox, that means that short-term interest rates will drop to around 3% in the no landing scenario, even if long-term rates remain elevated. AdvertisementAfter all, a no landing scenario is the best outcome for the economy, Cox said, and given hot growth, the situation effectively tosses recession fears out the window. This would be just the fourth time in US history that the Fed has cut interest rates without a downturn, he added.
Persons: , BofA, Reacceleration, Jamie Cox, Cox, They're, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, UBS, Fed, Nvidia, Apple
Insider Today: Blackstone's juggernaut
  + stars: | 2024-10-20 | by ( Matt Turner | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . You can opt-out at any time by visiting our Preferences page or by clicking "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the email. The boom in private credit at Blackstone reflects a broader shift in how companies borrow.
Persons: , Drew Houston, Jeff Bezos, Jon Gray, Blackstone, Jeenah, Jonathan Gray, Banks, Marc Rowan, Jamie Dimon, it's, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, BI's Alice Tecotzky, Tyler Le, Momo Takahashi, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, It's, rainmaker Jett Lara, Augustus Doricko, Doricko, Alex Diaz, he's Organizations: Business, Service, Blackstone, Blackstone Group, Reuters, JPMorgan, BI, Democratic, Apple, Investment, Goldman, Bank of America, Citigroup Locations: New York City, U.S, BI Northampton, Pennsylvania, Easton, El Segundo , California
First, higher interest rates will reward savers, making it more expensive to take risks. And with interest rates so low, companies could suddenly load up on debt: From 2007 to 2017, global nonfinancial corporate debt doubled, to $66 trillion. Now, with the arrival of a new supercycle, money managers are once again being forced to adapt to a changing set of economic realities. Normally, when the Fed hikes interest rates rapidly, the stock market tanks. Rising interest rates will make loans more expensive, forcing businesses to make more-thoughtful decisions about debt.
Persons: Josh Hirt, Silas Myers, Myers, Hirt, you've, Joe Quinlan, they'll, Quinlan Organizations: Investors, Vanguard, Mar Vista Investments, Federal Reserve, Capital, . Venture, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Big Tech, Federal Trade Commission, Treasury, European Union, Aerospace Locations: Washington, China, Unemployment, Europe, America, Japan, United States
Luxury stocks may be a risky China stimulus bet
  + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +7 min
A post-pandemic spending surge led to luxury stocks such as LVMH to reach all-time highs in early 2023, but that soon changed. We believe improved confidence and sentiment is required to reach even our flat year-over-year Chinese luxury growth forecast for 2025," Wallace noted. Luxury stocks are feeling the pressure — year to date, U.S.-traded shares of major players LVMH and Kering are down about 17% and 41%, respectively. Analysts and investors are mixed as to whether the Chinese stimulus measures can revive luxury spending growth among consumers — and whether it will create a meaningful tailwind for luxury companies. Whether the luxury sector can continue growing at the same levels without as much Chinese consumer spending remains in question.
Persons: — stoking, Ben Harburg, Morgan Stanley, Ashley Wallace, Wallace, Jean, Jacques Guiony, Moncler, Hermes, Prada, Richemont, LVMUY CFRUY, , Edouard Aubin, Sauron, Harburg, LVMH's Guiony, we've Organizations: Alpha, Bank of America, of America, Consumers Locations: China, Covid, 3Q24, U.S, LVMH
Inflation is not deadDaly began her talk with an anecdote of a recent encounter she had while walking near her home. But the conversation encapsulated a dilemma for the Fed: If inflation is on the run, why are interest rates still so high? As evidenced by the young man's question, convincing people that inflation is easing is a tough sell. watch nowThe annual rate of CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, a vast improvement over the 9.1% top in June 2022. However, year-over-year spending increased just 1.7%, below the 2.4% CPI inflation rate.
Persons: Brandon Bell, Goldman Sachs, Mary Daly, Daly, Goldman, Jerome Powell, , hasn't, haven't Organizations: Walmart, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, New York University Stern School of Business, Commerce Department, Fed, York Fed, Bank of America, National Federation of Independent Business Locations: Austin , Texas, U.S, , Wyoming, Atlanta, York
Boeing and union leaders have reached a deal that could end a weekslong strike. AdvertisementBoeing and leaders from a union representing striking machinists have reached a deal that could end a strike that has lasted over a month. About 33,000 Boeing workers have been on strike in the Pacific Northwest for over a month, halting much of Boeing's production. Bank of America analysts estimated that the strike is costing Boeing $50 million a day. Less than a week after the strike began, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said the company would furlough white-collar workers in an email to employees.
Persons: , Labor Julie Su, who've, Kelly Ortberg, Ortberg Organizations: Boeing, Service, International Association of Machinists, Aerospace Workers, Labor, Bank of America, Federal Aviation Administration, Alaska Airlines, Space Station Locations: Pacific Northwest
Major banks like Goldman Sachs walloped Wall Street expectations thanks to dealmaking fees. Investment banking has made a comeback, and bigger bonuses are in the cards, too. The biggest banks on Wall Street reported a huge boost in dealmaking fees this quarter after a two-year slump. Investment bank revenue surged 30% on average at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley, according to Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo. Morgan Stanley's investment bank revenue surged 56% year over year to $1.46 billion, beating Wall Street expectations.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Morgan Stanley, Wells, Mike Mayo, Sharon Yeshaya, Morgan, Global's Nathan Stovall, corporates, Stovall, David Ellison's Skydance, JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, David Solomon, Mayo, Cole Smead, There's, Jon Gray, anecdotally, Gray, David Stowell, Stowell, I'm, it's, Alan Johnson Organizations: Investment, Service, Wall, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Citi, Mars, Paramount, David Ellison's Skydance Media, Wall Street, Smead Capital Management, Blackstone, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, underwriters, Johnson Associates Locations: Wells Fargo, Mayo
Analysts are getting even more bullish on Netflix following its earnings beat for the third quarter . Here is what other firms are saying: Pivotal Research keeps buy rating on stock The firm raised its price target to $925, a Street high. Bernstein reiterates its market perform rating The firm increased its price target to $780 from $625. Bank of America reiterates its buy rating The bank increased its price target to $800 from $740. 3Q results were generally ahead (OI 5% higher) while commentary pointed to sustained double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion in 2025."
Persons: Doug Anmuth, Anmuth, Morgan Stanley, Benjamin Swinburne, Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, NFLX Organizations: Netflix, JPMorgan, WWE, NFL, of America, Gaming, UBS, 3Q
Nvidia could be positioned for even more growth ahead, according to Bank of America. Analyst Vivek Arya reiterated his buy rating on the chip giant and raised his price target by $25 to $190. That would add to the monstrous rally it has already seen this year, with shares surging more than 176% in 2024. Not only that, Arya cited "underappreciated" enterprise partnerships with companies such as Accenture and ServiceNow as catalysts for more growth. The stock advanced around 1% in the premarket on Friday following Arya's price target change.
Persons: Vivek Arya, Jensen Huang, Blackwell, Arya, Nvidia's Organizations: Nvidia, Bank of America, Accenture, ServiceNow, Microsoft, Foundry, Apple Locations: Taiwan
The surge comes after the streaming giant reported another strong quarter and issued positive guidance. Quarterly revenue was slightly above estimates while its ad-supported tier saw strong subscriber growth. AdvertisementInvestors poured into Netflix shares on Friday, sending the stock to record highs after the streaming giant's solid third-quarter earnings report. The surge came after Netflix reported a strong earnings beat and gave positive forward guidance that gave investors confidence about its position in the streaming wars. He said Netflix's latest earnings and free cash flow set it apart from the competition in the increasingly fierce streaming wars.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, Benjamin Swinburne, Swinburne Organizations: Service, Netflix, Bloomberg, UBS, Bank of America, CNBC Locations: signups
Wall Street is trying to make AI search sexy
  + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Bianca Chan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +8 min
Finance firms and fintech startups are trying to use generative AI to improve search capabilities. Perfecting search, down the line, could lead to more automation and more complex generative AI tools. It has already onboarded some-25 Wall Street firms onto its generative AI platform. AdvertisementMeanwhile, two Stanford grads came together to build Mako, a generative AI associate for the private-equity industry. The search tool is the bank's second such generative AI tool, the first being a generative AI developer co-pilot that helps software engineers code more efficiently.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, , Goldman hoovered, Neema Raphael, Raphael, it's, Morgan Stanley's, Keri Smith, Smith, Jeff McMillan, Gabe Stengel, Stanford grads, It's, Peter Anderson, Familiarizing, Goldman Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Nasdaq, Goldman, Blackstone, Google, Bank of America's, Accenture, Stanford, Balyasny Asset Management Locations: Wall, OpenAI
Howard Schnapp | Newsday | Getty ImagesThe tide could be turning for commercial real estate. That could give interest rate-sensitive sectors such as commercial real estate long-awaited positive momentum. While lower rates are not a "magic bullet," the easing of the Fed's monetary policy "lays the groundwork for a commercial real estate recovery," analysts wrote in a follow-up report in late September. More than $40 billion in transactions occurred during the second quarter, a 13.9% jump quarter over quarter, but still 9.4% lower year over year, according to real estate data intelligence firm Altus Group. While these dynamics could set the stage for a broader recovery, with some major subsectors such as commercial retail real estate picking up in tandem, the path forward will likely be uneven.
Persons: Howard Schnapp, Alan Todd, Todd, Willy Walker, Walker, Dunlop, what's, Wells, Wells Fargo, , Chad Littell, Littell Organizations: Newsday, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, CNBC, REIT, Real, Board, New York, U.S, Capital Locations: Melville , New York, Wells, U.S, Manhattan, Wells Fargo
Bank of America analysts raised their price target for Nvidia stock to $190 a share this week. They see the AI market growing to $400 billion, giving Nvidia a "generational opportunity." AdvertisementNvidia stock has been on a tear all year, but investors can brace for even more gains ahead, Bank of America analysts say. The analysts point to exponential growth in the AI market in the coming years, which they say will give Nvidia a "generational opportunity" as the chip titan continues to strengthen its lead in the market. Nvidia's stock has skyrocketed this year, up 187% as AI continues to boom after a brief sell-off over the summer.
Persons: , Nvidia's Organizations: of America, Nvidia, Service, Bank of America, Google, Meta, Accenture, ServiceNow, Oracle, Microsoft, Foundry
Traders and central banks should increase exposure to gold, Bank of America says. The analysts see gold hitting $3,000 an ounce by the end of next year, implying 11% upside. AdvertisementGold is increasingly attractive as other traditional "safe haven" assets face mounting risks, Bank of America strategists said. "Gold looks to be the last 'safe haven' asset standing, incentivising traders including central banks to increase exposure," the strategists said in a Wednesday note. The Bank of America analysts note that gold now makes up 10% of central bank reserves, up from 3% a decade ago.
Persons: Organizations: Bank of America, Service, International Monetary Fund, US Treasury, Investors, Federal Reserve
With the Federal Reserve now cutting interest rates, investors are looking for stocks that can be super-charged by lower borrowing costs. Small and medium-sized companies tend to be the most closely affected by the direction of the economy and rates. Outflows were seen solely in large caps; small and mid-caps saw inflows." If money does keep flowing into small caps, will it come at the expense of large caps? .SPX mountain 2022-10-01 S & P 500 since Oct. 1, 2022 That said, if the move into the smaller caps stocks continues, we may start to see more competition for capital.
Persons: Russell, that's, it's, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang, Morgan Stanley's, We're, Canaccord Genuity, pare, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Michael Nagle Organizations: Federal Reserve, BMO Capital Markets, Bank of America, Nvidia, CNBC, Blackwell, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Devices, Broadcom, Apple Intelligence, Apple, Microsoft, Presidential, Jim Cramer's Charitable, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S
Wall Street's biggest banks face a less profitable lending environment as interest rates fall. Bank bosses shrugged off those concerns this week and pointed to several benefits of lower rates. AdvertisementLending threatens to become far less lucrative for Wall Street's biggest banks as interest rates fall. But he said the Fed's jumbo rate cut might have sparked more activity in debt capital markets recently. AdvertisementCEO David Solomon said the Fed's first rate cut has raised hopes of avoiding a US recession, which could translate into more economic activity.
Persons: shrugged, , Alistair Borthwick, Banks, Jane Fraser, Fraser, Mark Mason, Wells, Charles Scharf, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Sharon Leshaya, Citi's Fraser, Jeremy Barnum, Barnum, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, BoA, Goldman Organizations: Bank, Service, Wall, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Citigroup, Citi Locations: refi
Earnings season is offering insight into how the US presidential election may impact big companies. So far, companies are commenting on how Election Day itself could sway their financial results. Delta expects a hit to revenue as fewer people travel around Election DayPeople will likely hold off on other kinds of spending around Election Day. Delta saw something similar happen after the 2016 election, Hauenstein said at the time. AdvertisementCompanies are issuing debt ahead of Election Day, according to CitigroupInvestment banking fees rose 44% during Citigroup's third quarter, CEO Jane Fraser said.
Persons: , Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, they're, William Newlands, Newlands, Glen Hauenstein, Hauenstein, Delta, Jane Fraser, Fraser, Goldman Sachs, Harris, Trump Organizations: Citigroup, Delta, Service, Constellation Brands, Corona, Modelo, Constellation, Air Lines, Citigroup Investment, Bank of America
Consumer spending was expected to hold strong in September, possibly even more than forecast and enough to throw another wrinkle into the Federal Reserve's thought process. "If retail sales accelerate considerably, in our view, the narrative may shift further toward 'no landing' or even re-acceleration." "Monthly retail sales data can be volatile. For now, Bhave thinks a strong sales report will "probably not … at least, not yet" hit Fed policy. At the same time the retail report drops, the Labor Department will issue its weekly reading on initial unemployment claims.
Persons: Dow Jones, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Hurricanes Helene, Milton Organizations: Bank of America, Fed, Labor Department, Hurricanes, Boeing Locations: Michigan
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