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Dividend stocks have long been a favorite of BMO's since their yields offer protection against heightened market volatility. And to have sufficient dividend growth and yield, companies must have a higher dividend yield than the S&P 500's, and it must be growing at a faster rate than the market's yield. Additional qualifications include having a below-market dividend payout ratio, a free cash flow yield higher than its dividend yield, and no dividend cuts in the prior five years, according to the note. "By focusing solely on high current dividend yield investors could be missing potential recovery and/or dividend growth opportunities." After outlining its barbell strategy and methodology, BMO listed eight stocks in each group that fit those descriptions and are worth considering.
Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Brian Belski, Oppenheimer, Belski, BMO's Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, BMO, BMO Capital Markets Profit Locations:
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're most bullish on NYC in the office landscape, says BMO's John KimJohn Kim, BMO Capital Markets analyst, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Vornado's quarterly earnings results, the outlook for office buildings, and much more.
Persons: BMO's John Kim John Kim Organizations: BMO Capital Markets
Chief investment strategist Brian Belski said in a July 26 note to clients that "growth at a reasonable price" stocks should be key holdings of the riskier portion of an investment portfolio. The so-called "GARP" stocks tend to have characteristics of both growth and value factors. "We have found through our work that GARP strategies tend to perform much better over longer periods than singularly focused growth or value strategies," Belski wrote. BMO defines "GARP" stocks as those with forward-looking price-to-earnings and price-to-earnings-growth ratios below the median of the S & P 500, while projected earnings growth is greater than the median S & P 500 value. As optimism about the U.S. economy has improved, the gap between earnings growth expectations for GARP companies and the broader market has shrunk.
Persons: Brian Belski, Belski, haven't, Michael Bloom Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, BMO, DXC Technology, PayPal, Schlumberger, Wall, Insurance Locations: U.S
The Treasury earlier this month posted a $228 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier. "They have to grow coupon auction sizes - not just at the August refunding, not just at the November refunding, but also at the February refunding as well, because they are ultimately trying to balance this supply picture between bills vs coupons and this growing financing need," Swiber said. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) recommends that bills make up 15-20% of the total marketable debt. The Treasury will release its quarterly borrowing requirement Monday afternoon, and its refunding news comes Wednesday at 0830 ET/1230 GMT. The Treasury surveyed dealers about their opinion on how some details of the program should work ahead of the August refunding.
Persons: Steven Zeng, Meghan Swiber, Swiber, Ben Jeffery, Karen Brettell, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S . Treasury Department, Treasury, COVID, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe have entered a renewed era of stock picking, says BMO's Brian BelskiBrian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the current macroeconomic environment, why now isn't the time to invest in the indices, and more.
Persons: Brian Belski Brian Belski Organizations: BMO Capital Markets
July 27 (Reuters) - AbbVie (ABBV.N) on Thursday raised its annual profit forecast after beating analysts' estimates for second-quarter earnings on a lower-than-expected fall in sales of blockbuster arthritis drug Humira and strong sales of newer treatments. Global Humira sales tumbled 25.2% to $4.01 billion while analysts had expected $3.94 billion, according to Refinitiv data. Still, Humira sales are expected to drop 37% in 2023, and the company has been leaning on newer immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq to drive growth. Excluding one-off items, AbbVie reported a profit of $2.91 per share, beating the average analyst estimate of $2.81. The company raised its 2023 adjusted profit forecast to $10.90 to $11.10 per share from $10.57 to $10.97 earlier.
Persons: Evan Seigerman, Richard Gonzalez, Leroy Leo, Patrick Wingrove, Sriraj Kalluvila, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Global, BMO Capital, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Amgen, Bengaluru, New York
Deutsche Bank's emerging market carry strategy index had its best year on record in the 12 months to May. Reuters GraphicsOVERCROWDING FEARSInvestors, however, are becoming concerned the carry trade might be becoming too popular for its own good. "You have to be worried about some of these more crowded positions," said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets. "I think that is big enough to offset any carry trade income," said Yujiro Goto, head of FX strategy for Japan at Nomura. A hypothetical $50,000 invested in a short Norwegian crown, long dollar carry trade in the first three weeks of July would have lost $3,000, according to Refinitiv.
Persons: Refinitiv, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Stephen Gallo, Gallo, James Athey, Yujiro Goto, Oliver Brennan, Brennan, Robin Winkler, Goldman's Trivedi, Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Ankur, Rae Wee, Bernadette Baum Organizations: LONDON, Bank of America, FX, Deutsche, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, BMO Capital Markets, Nomura, BNP Paribas, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics, Federal, Deutsche Bank, Swiss, Reuters, Korean, BNY, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Japan, European, U.S, America, Asia, London, Singapore
The monthly increases for both measures have been 0.3% or less in seven of the last eight months. The BoC, which will release minutes from its July meeting on Wednesday, has said it doesn't want to tighten more than is needed. Canadians are particularly sensitive to higher borrowing costs after loading up on debt in recent years as house prices soared. The July inflation data is due for release on Aug. 15. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Denny Thomas and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Benjamin Reitzes, Reitzes, Royce Mendes, Mendes, Fergal Smith, Denny Thomas, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: TORONTO, Bank, Canada's, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of Canada, Desjardins, Thomson Locations: Helpfully
American Express — Shares slipped about 4% after the company reported second-quarter revenue of $15.05 billion, falling short of the $15.48 billion expected from analysts polled by Refinitiv. The car dealer company reported second-quarter results that exceeded expectations on the top and bottom lines. The company posted systems revenue of $392.7 million, lower than the $415.9 million, according to a consensus estimate from StreetAccount. CSX — CSX slid more than 4% after the transportation company reported disappointing second-quarter revenue. The company reported revenue of $3.7 billion, which was weaker than $3.74 billion expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv.
Persons: Herc — Herc, Sherif El, Sabbahy, AutoNation, Swift, StreetAccount, — CNBC's Michelle Fox, Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim Organizations: Scholastic, Traders, American, Refinitiv, American Express, Bank of America, Swift Transportation —, Swift Transportation, PPG, PPG Industries, Sunnova Energy, BMO Capital Markets, CSX Locations: Hollywood, U.S
Inflation is falling, with the headline consumer price index (CPI) measure slowing to 3.0% in June from 4.0% in May. The current debate is whether more rate increases might be needed to ensure "disinflation" continues or if doing more could cause unnecessary damage to the economy. Core PCE was last reported at 3.8% for May. But none of the inflation gauges polled by Reuters - CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE - were expected to reach 2% until 2025 at the earliest. A slight majority of economists who answered an additional question, 14 of 23, said wage inflation would be the most sticky component of core inflation.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jan Nevruzi, Doug Porter, Indradip Ghosh, Prerana Bhat, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, Fed, NatWest Markets, PCE, CPI, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S
July 14 (Reuters) - Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.N) said on Friday it will buy privately held Versanis for potentially up to $1.93 billion to strengthen its position in the fast-growing market for weight-loss treatments. Shares of Eli Lilly rose 3% after the deal that gives it access to an experimental obesity drug being tested along with rival Novo Nordisk's (NOVOb.CO) weight-loss treatment in a mid-stage study. Analysts expect the market for weight-loss drugs to reach up to $100 billion within a decade, with early movers such as Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk grabbing a large chunk of the market. "One of the key concerns with weight loss medications is the loss of lean mass. The goal is to lose more fat vs. muscle, but with any weight loss program calorie restriction could impact both," said BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Novo, Evan Seigerman, Lilly, Sriparna Roy, Arun Koyyur Organizations: Novo Nordisk's, Novo Nordisk, Capital, Novartis, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Bengaluru
That was the smallest year-on-year increase since March 2021 and followed a 4.0% rise in May. The year-on-year CPI is slowing in part as last year's large rises drop out of the calculation. It was the first time in six months that the so-called core CPI did not post monthly gains of at least 0.4%. Services prices rose 0.3%, matching May's gain. Economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.
Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Joe Biden, Chris Zaccarelli, Sarah Silbiger, Michael Gregory, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Reuters Graphics, CPI, Reuters, Independent, Treasury, El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Institute, Supply, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina, Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, Toronto
NEW YORK, July 12 (Reuters) - Large leveraged bets by hedge funds in the U.S. Treasury market could "amplify stress" in global financial markets should rates markets move sharply, the Bank of England said in a report published on Wednesday. Hedge funds have taken record short positions in two- and five-year Treasury futures this year, suggesting that fund managers expect short-term interest rates to continue to move higher. "Really what the market is looking for is a little bit more clarity from the Fed and other global central banks as to where terminal rates will ultimately be, and that will ultimately translate into more conviction in the rates market," he said. "Asset managers continued to add to (Treasury) exposure with leveraged funds taking the other side," the report noted. Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Benjamin Jeffery, David Randall, Paul Simao Organizations: YORK, U.S . Treasury, Bank of England, Treasury, BMO Capital Markets, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries
"We expect the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate to 5.00% and leave the door open to more hikes this fall." Twenty of 24 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the central bank to lift rates by another quarter of a percentage point and then hold them there well into 2024. Money markets see more than a 70% chance of a rate hike on Wednesday, and are fully pricing in such a move by September. Canada added far more jobs than expected in June, according to data published on Friday. "And let's face it, inflation is still above the Bank of Canada's 2% target."
Persons: Royce Mendes, Tiago Figueiredo, Doug Porter, Porter, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Paul Simao Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Bank of Canada's, Group, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Canada
NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - Barclays Plc (BARC.L) has hired Jim Birchenough from Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) as its chairman of global healthcare investment banking, a spokesperson for the British bank confirmed, after Reuters reported on the appointment on Friday. Birchenough last served as vice chairman of biopharma investment banking at Wells Fargo. In his new role, Birchenough will also lead Barclays' global biopharma investment banking unit alongside Alexis de Rosnay, who joined the bank last year and is taking on an expanded role in addition to his responsibilities as chairman of global healthcare investment banking. More than two dozen U.S. investment bankers have left Barclays since January when it named two new global co-heads of investment banking. They are Cathal Deasy, former co-head of Credit Suisse Group AG investment banking and capital markets, and Taylor Wright, former co-head of Morgan Stanley (MS.N) global capital markets.
Persons: Jim Birchenough, Birchenough, Wells, Alexis de Rosnay, Darren Campili, Jim, Richard Landgarten, Cathal Deasy, Taylor Wright, Morgan Stanley, David Carnevali, Anirban Sen, Mark Porter, Will Dunham, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Barclays Plc, Wells Fargo & Co, Reuters, Barclays, BMO Capital Markets, Lehman Brothers, Wells, Credit Suisse Group, Thomson Locations: Wells, Wells Fargo, San Francisco, New York
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. "Today's numbers confirm the job market is still strong... and this report gives the green light to the Fed to raise rates. "If anything, it probably confirms this idea that the Fed has had that they are making progress in the right direction." "It's not like this is a sudden vast improvement in the labor market." The hours worked numbers are rising slower than the payrolls numbers.
Persons: Nonfarm, payrolls, CANDICE, GOLDMAN, BEN JEFFERY, , PETER CARDILLO, we're, STUART COLE, JASON PRIDE, MICHAEL BROWN, , ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE Organizations: YORK, Labor Department, Reuters, Treasury, BMO, NFP, Fed, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: GOLDMAN SACHS, PHILADELPHIA, WISCONSIN
US job growth slows; wage gains remain strong
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Nevertheless, the pace of job growth remains strong by historical norms and was further evidence that the economy was far from a dreaded recession. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020, the survey of establishments showed. Government employment increased by 60,000, boosted by a 59,000 rise in state and local government payrolls. Government employment remains 161,000 below its pre-pandemic levels. Annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.
Persons: Sal Guatieri, Nonfarm, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve, Labor, Fed, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Toronto
Dollar eases after strong labor market reports
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - The dollar eased after a brief rebound on Thursday as data showing the U.S. labor market remains strong increased chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month. "Take it together with how equity markets have responded, that gives a clear picture of the dollar today. The dollar index , measuring the U.S. currency against six others including the euro and Japan's yen, fell 0.18% to 103.13. "The FX market is taking more of a 'one-dimensional approach' to trading the British disease," said Stephen Gallo, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets. The Chinese yuan last traded down slightly at 7.2575 per dollar in the offshore market , a day after falling about 0.4%.
Persons: payrolls, Brian Daingerfield, Lorie Logan, Brad Bechtel, Stephen Gallo, Gallo, Bitcoin, Herbert Lash, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, David Holmes, Mark Potter, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Reserve, Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, NatWest Markets, Fed, Dallas, FX, Jefferies, of England, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, Stamford , Connecticut, London, Singapore
[1/3] A view shows placards as longshoremen with the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Canada (ILWU) strike outside the Port of Vancouver's Neptune Bulk Terminals in North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada July 5, 2023. Some 7,500 dock workers went on strike on Saturday for higher wages, upending operations at two of Canada's three busiest ports, the Port of Vancouver and Port of Prince Rupert. Money markets expect the central bank to tighten further, possibly as soon as at a policy decision next Wednesday. The Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CM&E) industry body said the strike is disrupting C$500 million in trade every day. ($1 = 1.3360 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Fergal Smith, editing by Steve Scherer and Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Chris Helgren, Port of Prince Rupert, Andrew Grantham, Seamus O'Regan, It's, Robert Kavcic, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Josie Kao Organizations: Warehouse Union, REUTERS, TORONTO, Bank of Canada, BoC, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of, Reuters, Twitter, Canadian Manufacturers, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: of, North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Port of Vancouver, Port of, Bank of Canada
After a surprisingly strong rally in the first half of 2023, BMO Capital Markets remains bullish. Here are six stocks for investors to consider in the second half of the year. Investors can count on further gains for US stocks in the next six months after a startlingly strong start to 2023, said strategists at BMO Capital Markets. In its bull case, the firm thinks the S&P 500 could climb another 13.5% to end the year at 5,050. BMO Capital Markets"SMID-caps have been unfairly punished, in our view," Belski wrote.
Persons: Brian Belski, Belski Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, BMO Capital, BMO Locations: Canada
So the BoC will press ahead and hike the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on July 12, according to 20 of 24 economists in the June 28-July 6 Reuters poll. That would amount to 475 basis points in total since March 2022, taking the overnight rate to a new 22-year high. Inflation is not expected to fall to the central bank's 2% target at least until 2025, according to the poll. The central bank was predicted to keep rates on hold at 5.00% until Q2 2024, said a majority of economists. Rates staying high for longer is expected to boost the Canadian dollar, one of the best performers among G10 currencies this year.
Persons: Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Claire Fan, Kit Juckes, Milounee Purohit, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ross Finley, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Gross, RBC Economics, Canadian, U.S, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rising 0.2%. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending was unchanged. Data for April was revised lower to show the so-called real consumer spending rising only 0.2% instead of 0.5% as previously reported. With consumer spending softening, inflation subsided. The so-called core PCE price index increased 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in May after advancing 4.7% in April.
Persons: Kevork, Sal Guatieri, Joe Biden's, Mike Graziano, Morgan Stanley, Dana Peterson, Lucia Mutikani, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Commerce, Reserve, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, Services outlays, Treasury, RSM, Fed, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles, WASHINGTON, U.S, Toronto, Outlays, New York, Washington
OTTAWA, June 30 (Reuters) - Canada's economy regained momentum in May after stalling in April, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday, leaving the door open for the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates in July. The economy was unchanged in April from March, missing forecasts, in what economists said was the fallout from a federal civil servant strike in April. Canada's goods-producing sector expanded 0.1% in April, but were offset by a slight decline in the service-producing sector. Figueiredo expects the central bank to raise interest rate by another 0.25% in July. Money markets see a roughly 61% chance of the central bank hiking rates in July.
Persons: Statscan, it's, Doug Porter, Desjardins, Tiago Figueiredo, Figueiredo, Ismail Shakil, Nivedita Balu, Dale Smith, Jonathan Oatis, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: OTTAWA, Statistics, Bank of Canada, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Public Service Alliance of Canada, Toronto Stock, Canadian, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Toronto
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBMO's Brian Belski: Surprising Q4 earnings growth could bring S&P to $5,050Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what he sees ahead for the year's second half, if there will be a chase of recent market growth, and more.
Persons: Brian Belski Organizations: BMO Capital Markets
But that’s not the only effects expected: Combined with climate change, El Niño this year could dent US economic growth, potentially impacting everything from food prices to the winter clothing sales. Higher food prices are a common theme across El Niño events, according to a recent Deutsche Bank report. Dry weather has parched crops in El Salvador as the El Niño weather threatens food security. The last time there was an El Niño in 2018 through 2019, NOAA dubbed it “The Great Puny El Niño” due to its relatively weak impact on weather conditions. He projects that El Niño weather events could cause $84 trillion in economic losses in the 21st century.
Persons: Niño, that’s, , Christopher Callahan, ” Christopher Callahan, El, Lesley, Ann Dupigny, Giroux, Yi Yu, Linh Pham, Winters, Yu, Callahan, Simeon Siegel, , Chris Scheuring, “ It’s, Camilo Freedman Organizations: CNN, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, Dartmouth, Southern, University of Vermont, University of California, Southwestern, Vietnam Electricity Group, Bloomberg, Getty, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Dupigny, US Federal Aviation Administration, California Farm Bureau, La Union, Prediction Locations: Niño, University of California Irvine, Asia, Australia, Southwestern United States, Tri An, Vinh Cuu, Dong Nai Province, Vietnam, United States, rainier, El, Pasaquina, La, El Salvador
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