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☆ Dollar soothed by uneasy market calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers, was flat at 102.42, giving up small gains of up to 0.3% in the European morning. It has fallen for the past two sessions, and is set for a 2.1% monthly fall, a victim of the market ructions induced by problems in the banking industry. "We have returned to a sense of calm right now, but I don't think it's all over. The dollar touched a one-week high on the yen and was last up 0.7% to 131.85 yen , while the euro gained 0.7% against the yen to 143. The dollar had dropped 0.5% against the yen the previous day, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction to long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which have been rising as calm returns to markets.

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers, gained 0.15% to 102.64. It has fallen for the past two sessions, and is set for a 2.1% monthly fall, a victim of the market ructions induced by problems in the banking industry. The dollar touched a one week high and was last up 0.8% to 131.99 yen , while the euro gained 0.6% against the yen to 142.9. The dollar had dropped 0.5% against the yen the previous day, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction to long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which have been rising as calm returns to markets. Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Jamie Freed and Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Asian stocks rally as bank jitters calm, Alibaba lifts mood
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Alibaba's Hong Kong shares (9988.HK) shot up 15%, while the company's U.S.-listed shares closed 14.3% higher. The news lifted investor confidence in the wider Chinese tech sector, with shares of Alibaba's e-commerce rival JD.com Inc (9618.HK) 7% higher, and gaming giant Tencent Holdings Ltd (0700.HK) jumping 5%. "Alibaba's split may pave the way for other Chinese tech giants to do similar," CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. "This helps break down the monopolistic power of these conglomerates, which complies with the Chinese government's regulatory overhaul over antitrust issues." Futures indicated European stocks were set to open higher, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.41%, German DAX futures up 0.38% and FTSE futures up 0.08%.

☆ Safe-haven dollar sluggish as banking fears ebb; yen drops
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, edged 0.08% higher to 102.57 in Asian trading, following drops of about 0.3% in each of the past two sessions. The weakness comes despite a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, also the result of ebbing demand for the safest assets. The yen remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. The dollar jumped 0.59% to 131.68 yen , and touched a one-week high of 131.80. The yen had dropped 0.5% the previous day, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction with long-term U.S. Treasury yields.

☆ U.S. banks fallout will intensify margin headwinds for Aussie lenders, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Australian banks are "well regulated" and carry strong liquidity coverage ratios, UBS said. Regulators and bankers insist the country's banks, bolstered by post-global financial crisis reforms, are well placed to handle the solvency and liquidity shocks that rocked lenders overseas like Silicon Valley Bank in the United States. Competition for mortgages, accounting for anywhere between 45% and 65% of net interest income of banks, "has never been fiercer," with some banks "sub-economically" pricing new business, UBS said. Still, the brokerage expects the bank to report strong first half earnings on sustained operational momentum. Three of the "Big Four" banks barring CBA lost between 1% and 5% from March 10 when the first signs of trouble surfaced at the tech-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank.

☆ Asian stocks rally as banking anxiety eases; Alibaba surges
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.82% higher, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) advanced 0.49%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index surged over 2%, buoyed by Alibaba (9988.HK) after the Chinese e-commerce conglomerate announced its break-up plans. Alibaba's Hong Kong shares (9988.HK) shot up 15%, while the company's U.S.-listed shares closed 14.3% higher. Worries over inflation have prompted investors to recalculate what they expect the Fed to do in its next meeting in May. In the foreign exchange markets, the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was mostly flat, having eased 0.3% overnight on improving risk appetite.

☆ Dollar muted as traders await Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six peers, was at 103.19, just above the five-week low of 102.99 touched overnight. Markets are now pricing in about a 15% chance of the Fed not increasing rates, with a roughly 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike, showed the CME FedWatch tool. Just a month earlier, the market was pricing in a 24% chance of a 50 basis point hike. Such circumstances would usually be ripe for a return to a 50 basis point hike were it not for worries over financial stability, he said. The Australian dollar rose 0.36% to $0.6694, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.11% to $0.6199.

☆ Dollar subdued ahead of Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six peers, was at 103.22, just above the five-week low of 102.99 touched overnight. Markets are now pricing in about a 14% chance of the Fed not increasing rates, with a roughly 86% chance of a 25 basis point hike, showed the CME FedWatch tool. Just a month earlier, the market was pricing in a 24% chance of a 50 basis point hike. Such circumstances would usually be ripe for a return to a 50 basis point hike were it not for worries over financial stability, he said. The Australian dollar rose 0.04% to $0.667, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.16% to $0.618.

☆ Australia regulator seeks risk reports from banks on startups, crypto -report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SYDNEY, March 22 (Reuters) - Australia's prudential regulator has started asking the country's banks to declare their exposure to startups and crypto-focused ventures following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, according to the Australian Financial Review (AFR). The APRA declined to comment on the report but referred to its statement last week that it would intensify supervision of the local banking industry and seek more information on any potential impact from Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ.AX) declined to comment, while Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AX) and National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) did not immediately respond to requests seeking comment. Treasurer Jim Chalmers last week said Australia was in a good position to withstand some of the market volatility because the country's banks were well capitalised, well regulated and had strong liquidity. Reporting by Renju Jose in Sydney; Editing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil falls more than $2 on banking concerns, likely Fed rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Brent crude futures for May settlement fell $2.32, or 3.2%, to $70.65 a barrel at 0710 GMT. Last week, Brent fell nearly 12%, its biggest weekly fall since December. A slowdown in interest rate hikes could depress the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil more affordable for holders of other currencies. "Volatility is likely to linger this week, with broader financial market concerns likely to remain at the forefront. Separately, Goldman Sachs cut its forecasts for Brent crude after prices plunged on banking and recession fears.

☆ Safe-haven yen regains footing as caution builds over bank contagion
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

New Zealand's kiwi was 0.3% lower at $0.6250, giving up an earlier gain of as much as 0.7%. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan announced joint action to enhance market liquidity. "I'm not so pessimistic, but still we have to wait and see how much we will see risk contagion from Europe," he said. The yen last traded at 131.79 per dollar , keeping intact a 2.5% gain from last week. The euro was about flat at $1.0671 and sterling was little changed at $1.2189, both erasing earlier small gains.

The slide in oil comes despite a historic deal which will see UBS, Switzerland's largest bank, buying the country's No. "The market focus is on current banking sector volatility and the potential for further rate hikes by the Fed," said Baden Moore, National Australia Bank's head of commodity research. A slowdown in interest rate hikes could depress the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil more affordable for holders of other currencies. "The U.S. Fed will be most important institution to watch this week," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar in a note. Separately, Goldman Sachs cut its forecasts for Brent crude after prices plunged on banking and recession fears.

☆ Yen drops, dollar on defensive as central banks seek to reassure markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Currency markets showed some cautious optimism after global authorities moved to stem contagion from a simmering banking crisis, with the safe haven dollar on the back foot and the yen tumbling amid a rebound in Treasury yields. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar jumped to a two-week high, while the euro edged higher for a third straight day. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan announced joint action to enhance market liquidity. The Australian dollar climbed 0.3% to $0.6721, and earlier touched $0.6743 for the first time since March 7. Although the banking system is the currency markets' most immediate focus, a Fed rate-setting meeting on Wednesday looms large.

☆ Oil hits lowest since 2021 on banking fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent and WTI earlier hit lows last registered in December 2021, with WTI sinking below $65 a barrel. After the deal was announced, The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other major central banks pledged to enhance market liquidity and support other banks. "The market focus is on current banking sector volatility and the potential for further rate hikes by the Fed," said Baden Moore, National Australia Bank's head of commodity research. However, some executives are calling on the central bank to pause its monetary policy tightening for now but be ready to resume raising rates later. The group agreed in October to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023.

☆ Asia stocks steady as Credit Suisse buyout brings relief
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Over the weekend, UBS said it will buy Credit Suisse for 3 billion francs ($3.2 billion) and assume up to $5.4 billion in losses, in a shotgun merger engineered by Swiss authorities. Central banks including the Fed, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan pledged to deepen support for liquidity, by increasing the frequency of seven-day dollar-swap operations from weekly to daily. "The best we can say was there are certainly a lot of concerns about Credit Suisse contagion risk," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney. "The news overnight from Switzerland has helped," he said, though added that the central bank moves had also drawn attention to how deep troubles may run. It's great we're seeing this concerted effort from central banks, and it's positive, but it does also highlight how troubling the circumstances are and how worried central banks appear to be as well."

☆ Stock futures nudge higher on Credit Suisse buyout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% in bumpy early trade. Over the weekend, UBS said it will buy Credit Suisse for 3 billion francs ($3.2 billion) and assume up to $5.4 billion in losses, in a shotgun merger engineered by Swiss authorities. "The news overnight from Switzerland has helped," he said, though added that the central bank moves had calmed as well as created nerves. It's great we're seeing this concerted effort from central banks, and it's positive, but it does also highlight how troubling the circumstances are and how worried central banks appear to be as well." In foreign exchange trade, the Swiss franc , which took a beating as worries about Credit Suisse grew last week, rose about 0.4% to 0.9264 to the dollar.

Companies Signature Bank FollowSINGAPORE, March 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices firmed on Friday after a meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia calmed markets amid strong China demand expectations, but were headed for their biggest weekly falls since December as a banking crisis rocked global financial and oil markets. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude went up by 21 cents to $68.53 a barrel, after closing 1.1% higher in the previous session. China's demand rebound will be positive for oil prices if upcoming data shows a good recovery of the country's economy, said analyst Tina Teng of CMC Markets. However, contagion risks among banks are still keeping investors on edge, curbing their appetite for assets such as commodities, as they fear a further rout could trigger a global recession and cut oil demand. These issues regarding inflation, the central bank's rate hikes, and confidence in financial systems cannot be settled quickly," Teng said.

☆ Oil steadies as investors take stock of banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, March 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Friday after a meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia calmed markets, but crude benchmarks were still headed for a second weekly fall after a banking crisis sparked a sell-off in global financial markets this week. Brent crude futures edged up 2 cents to $74.72 a barrel by 0133 GMT, having snapped three days of losses to settle 1.4% higher on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $68.33 a barrel, down 2 cents after closing 1.1% higher in the previous session. Contagion risks among banks are still keeping investors on edge, curbing their appetite for assets such as commodities as they fear a further rout could trigger a global recession and cut oil demand. "The sudden failure of SVB and Signature Bank forced a rethink about the health of the broader economy and spooked markets," JPMorgan analysts said in a note.

[1/4] A combination of photographs shows people using automated teller machines (ATMs) at Australia's "Big Four" banks - Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (bottom R), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (top R), National Australia Bank Ltd (bottom L) and Westpac Banking Corp (top L). REUTERS/StaffSYDNEY, March 17 (Reuters) - An A$300 billion ($201.21 billion) refinancing task for Australia's biggest banks is about to get harder, say analysts, as appetite for new debt shrinks across global markets roiled by concerns about bank stability and liquidity. "Now major banks don't have to hit markets everyday... but ultimately banks can't stay out of the market forever." Refinancing today would add extra 5 to 10 basis points to banks' costs versus a week and a half ago, he added. ($1 = 1.4910 Australian dollars)Reporting by Lewis Jackson and Scott Murdoch; Editing by Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Companies Signature Bank FollowSINGAPORE, March 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices rebounded by about 1% on Friday after a meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia calmed markets amid strong China demand expectations, after a banking crisis sparked a sell-off in global financial and oil markets this week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 78 cents to $69.13 a barrel, after closing 1.1% higher in the previous session. China's demand rebound will be positive for oil prices if upcoming data shows a good recovery of the country's economy, said analyst Tina Teng of CMC Markets. However, contagion risks among banks are still keeping investors on edge, curbing their appetite for assets such as commodities, as they fear a further rout could trigger a global recession and cut oil demand. These issues regarding inflation, the central bank's rate hikes, and confidence in financial systems, cannot be settled quickly," Teng said.

☆ Oil prices fall as SVB collapse rocks financial markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ETSINGAPORE, March 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than $1 on Tuesday, extending the previous day's slide, as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank rattled equities markets and sparked fear about a fresh financial crisis. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) dropped 82 cents, or 1.1%, to $73.98 a barrel. A stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation outcome would put further downward pressure on near term oil prices, National Australia Bank analysts said in a note. Beyond the Silicon Valley Bank shockwaves, oil prices were also under pressure due to signs of a weaker-than-expected economic recovery in China, despite the lifting of its strict COVID-19 restrictions, said Leon Li, an analyst at CMC Markets. In U.S. supply news, the American Petroleum Institute is expected to release industry data on U.S. oil inventories on Tuesday.

March 14 (Reuters) - Australia's economic health will be its central bank's compass for plotting the course of rate hikes, as stringent regulation insulates its banking sector from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (SIVB.O), analysts at top domestic banks said. Analysts at three of the top four lenders - Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), National Australia Bank (NAB.AX), and ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ.AX) - continue to expect the RBA to deliver its 11th consecutive rate hike next month. 0#RBAWATCH"The Australian domestic fundamentals remain consistent with further tightening from the RBA," Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ Research said. Australian banking sector, while not immune to the collapse of SVB, is in a "more insulated" position, Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at NAB said. Globally, banking stocks have taken a hit from the collapse of SVB despite of assurances from U.S. authorities, prompting a reassessment of interest rate expectations.

☆ FOREX Dollar sags as US banks' collapse has markets wagering on no Fed hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The fallout sent traders scaling back their bets on how much further the Fed would continue raising interest rates, sparking a sharp rally in Fed funds futures and sending the U.S. dollar tumbling. The greenback was nursing deep losses from the previous session in early Asia trade, and was last marginally higher against the Japanese yen at 133.42, having slid 1.4% on Monday. Similarly, sterling edged 0.19% lower to $1.2159, though it remained near its one-month peak of $1.2200 hit in the previous session. The Fed's rate hikes and expectations of how much higher U.S. rates would go have been a huge driver of the dollar's rally. The Aussie fell 0.29% to $0.6648, reversing some of its 1.3% jump in the previous session, while the kiwi shed 0.18% to stand at $0.6209, having similarly surged 1.4% on Monday.

☆ Australia business activity strong in Feb, even as confidence wanes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, March 14 (Reuters) - Australian business conditions remained resilient in February with sales and employment strong, even as confidence took a turn for the worse amid high inflation and rising interest rates. The survey from National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) (NAB.AX) released on Tuesday showed its index of business conditions dipped one point to +17 in January, still well above its long-run average. The survey was conducted from Feb. 20 to 28, so it missed the recent chaos in financial markets after Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. Conditions were generally upbeat with the survey's measure of sales at a very high +27 in February, supported by historically low unemployment and rapid population growth. The survey's measure of labour costs ticked up to a quarterly rate of 2.8%, but retail price growth eased to 1.9%.

☆ European stocks head for higher open but SVB's collapse rattles global market confidence
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Oil prices dipped as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continues to reverberate across global markets. National Australia Bank expects the prices to drop further following a stronger than expected U.S. inflation data slated for release later. "Oil prices fall on market fall-out from the US Silicon Valley Bank collapse. While energy prices have seen some relief due to diminishing shortage concerns, upside risks remain said Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "We see upside risks to our outlook driven by a sustained fall in Russia's oil and diesel exports," CBA said.

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