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But Fed officials on Monday said the jury is very much out. Bostic said businesses in his southeastern U.S. Fed district "are telling me we think you're close to overdoing it ... Investors have consistently bet that the central bank, due to some combination of recession or a faster-than-expected drop in inflation, will be cutting rates by later this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." In addition, he says the full impact of Fed rate hikes has yet to be felt.

☆ Fed officials expect US interest rates to stay high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

May 15 - U.S. central bankers on Monday signaled they see interest rates staying high and, if anything, going higher, given sticky inflation - a stark contrast with the market's view that the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates well before 2023 is over. Inflation has eased some and should cool further, he said, but the process will not be quick enough to merit rate cuts anytime soon. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." "We still are well in excess of our 2% inflation target, and we need to finish the job." And he said he believes the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes so far have yet to be felt.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation is "much much too high" despite the rate hikes. Investors now await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for any clues on potential rate cuts this year. Shares of Magellan jumped 13.7%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.14-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.92-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded six new 52-week highs and seven new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 44 new highs and 110 new lows.

"And as Washington leaks out increments with rolling disclosure about how the discussions are proceeding ... that probably is bolstering confidence in investors." ET, Dow e-minis were up 51 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.5 points, or 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20.75 points, or 0.15%. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year as he does not see inflation going down as fast as market participants believe. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook are among other Fed officials set to speak later in the day. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee says May rate hike was 'close call' for him
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 15 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that his decision to support an interest rate hike at the U.S. central bank's most recent meeting in May was a "close call" as he weighed the impact of credit tightening from recent bank stresses. "The thing that made it a close call for me is this big question mark about what is going to be the impact of this on credit conditions," Goolsbee told CNBC, adding that things did not appear to have become notably worse since the prior Fed meeting. Asked about market expectations for rate cuts later in the year, even though Fed policymaker forecasts do not call for any, Goolsbee appeared to have a warning, noting that failed Silicon Valley Bank took off its own hedges against higher interest rates because it believed markets and not the Fed's projections. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stock futures are little changed as traders await Tuesday debt ceiling negotiations: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on April 10, 2023 in New York City. Futures tied to the S&P 500 slipped 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched lower by 0.08%. Investors are anxiously awaiting progress on a deal to raise the debt ceiling before June 1, which is the earliest date the Treasury Department has said the U.S. could default on its debt obligations. Biden has so far maintained that raising the debt ceiling is non-negotiable. McCarthy, however, has pushed for talks to broker a deal to raise the debt ceiling be tied to spending cuts.

☆ Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: Rate hikes effects still in the pipeline
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: Rate hikes effects still in the pipelineCNBC’s Steve Liesman sits down with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on 'Squawk Box' to discuss the economic impact of current interest rates, the banking crisis, the possibility for future rate hikes, and more.

☆ Fed's Bostic casts doubt on rate cuts this year even if there's a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Monday that he doesn't foresee rate cuts at least through 2023, even if there's a recession. "If there's going to be some cost to that, we've got to be willing to do that." "If there's going to be a bias to action, for me would be a bias to increase a little further as opposed to cut." On inflation, Bostic said he remains optimistic, while Goolsbee said, "Inflation is improving, but it's not improving that rapidly." "There's still a lot of confidence that our policies are going to be able to get inflation back down to our 2% target," Bostic said.

☆ Timing the market isn't easy during a debt-ceiling showdown. Investors should stick to this strategy instead.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesMark Hamrick is senior economic analyst for Bankrate. Phil Rosen: How should investors be positioning themselves as the debt-ceiling fiasco drags on, and a potential default nears? If making a play around the debt ceiling is a no-go in your view, what should investors opt for instead? Homeowners are "quiet quitting" as low inventory and high mortgage rates keep a key market participant sidelined. That has a dual impact: each owner that postpones looking for a new house also marks one less seller on the market.

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsInvestors and analysts took the Labor Department report on the whole as supporting the prospect that the Fed would pause its rate increases at the June 13-14 meeting. The PCE, which is the Fed's preferred gauge for its 2% inflation target, has been running at more than twice that level. Continued readings like the ones in April could weaken the case for pausing rate hikes. That's how increases in its policy rate influence economic activity. FEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting.

☆ The $31 trillion debt-ceiling fiasco could punish markets and it's complicating an already complex economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In any case, one outcome that many hold with a high degree of certainty is that financial markets are going to feel pain if the "x-date" bell tolls. This $31 trillion debt ceiling argument "comes at the worst possible time," according to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. "Many past instances of debt limit standoffs have been resolved without significant market fallout," the strategists wrote in a recent note. That's according to LPL chief global strategist Quincy Krosby — she says it boils down to these three reasons. With recession risks climbing, Bank of America analysts slashed their 2023 outlook for oil prices.

☆ Fed survey: Banks are tightening up their lending standards after rate hikes, turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Survey respondents attributed the changes in lending standards to economic uncertainty, a reduced appetite for risk, deterioration in collateral values and broader concerns about banks’ funding costs and liquidity positions, according to the Fed report. At the time, banks expected that trend of tightening credit, waning demand and deteriorating loan quality would continue. Fed president: Central bank should weigh effectsFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with Yahoo! Fed officials, including Chair Powell, have previously noted that credit tightening could act similarly to a rate hike. A ‘salient risk’Separately on Monday, the Fed released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report, which assesses the resilience of the US financial system.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee: 'way too premature' to expect June rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"We know that credit conditions like the ones we are seeing now in the past have been correlated with recessions, credit crunches," Goolsbee told Fox News. "It's way too premature to know what to do with monetary policy." Goolsbee voted with all other Fed policymakers on Wednesday to raise the Fed's policy rate by a quarter point to 5.00%-5.25%. Goolsbee on Friday said he is paying particular attention to credit conditions, given the recent failure of First Republic Bank and the troubles of other regional banks. "It has to give you some pause" about raising rates, he said, because tighter credit conditions are likely to slow the economy.

That surge is now driving debate inside the U.S. Federal Reserve about how much weight to give ongoing wage increases as policymakers assess the path of inflation. Reuters GraphicsThe Fed will also receive updated data on the personal consumption expenditures price index, the measure it uses to set its 2% price target. Reuters Graphics“The one thing that I think we’re spending too much time looking at is wage growth as an indicator of prices,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC this month, citing recent research by Chicago Fed staff. He said he views rising wages as the result of that still- strong demand, something that should ease alongside price pressures once the money is gone. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ With the banking crisis on hold, the Fed is back to fighting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Federal Reserve's policy pendulum has swung back to inflation fighting. "The view is based on banking sector stress remaining contained, the economic expansion continuing and core inflation remaining stubbornly high." A cooling crisis Indeed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bankers in late February and early March were indicating chances of half-point rate hikes . Watching the banks, and the market To be sure, the banking situation remains in flux and could yet shape Fed policy. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy moves, has jumped about half a percentage point over the past two weeks.

Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) fell 2.5% after the video-streaming pioneer beat analysts' earnings estimates for the first quarter but offered a downbeat forecast. The two-year Treasury yield , most reflective of short-term rate expectations, hit a one-month high of 4.29% and the 10-year yield hit a four-week high as traders scaled back expectations of rate cuts later this year. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York President John Williams are set to speak later in the day. Earnings from regional banks were mixed, with Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG.N) falling 2.4% after its first-quarter results missed estimates. Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) rallied 20.4% after the regional bank posted stronger-than-expected earnings and said its deposits had stabilized after the March banking crisis.

The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.2%, thanks to a broad-based decline in equities around the world. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures , fell between 0.3-0.5%, suggesting a touch of weakness at the opening bell. The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, St Louis Fed President James Bullard said that, far from pausing, the central bank should keep raising interest rates, based on how persistent inflation has proven to be. UK inflation fell to 10.1% in March, from February's 10.4% - above expectations for a decline to 9.8% and the highest in western Europe, according to data on Wednesday.

☆ Stocks slip as focus turns back to Fed and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"With those stresses easing away, markets are now back to focusing on the Fed." A slew of Federal Reserve speakers are in the frame over the rest of this week ahead of the pre-meeting blackout period that begins on the weekend. The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. "Lower rate volatility and reduced expectations for Fed rate hikes should put the broad U.S. dollar in a weaker position," HSBC analysts said in a currency outlook note. This held down real yields, propped up equity multiples, and tightened credit spreads in the face of falling earnings expectations.

☆ Morning Bid: Sterling's inflation test
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookTraders are scaling back bets on U.S. rate cuts, but dialling up expectations for British hikes. On Tuesday, it was bigger-than-expected pay rises that strengthened expectations for the Bank of England to lift rates next month and to continue doing so thereafter. On Wednesday, British inflation data is in focus. On balance, the sheer size of the Bank of England's task of reining in inflation has been supportive for sterling, which hit a 10-month high last week. Implied volatility in the options market suggests traders don't expect sudden changes in the currency's slow grind higher.

☆ Stocks slip as focus falls back on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published later on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. Markets are pricing an 86% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting, and that wasn't swayed terribly much by conflicting outlooks from two non-voting Fed officials on Tuesday. St Louis Fed President James Bullard told Reuters the Fed ought to keep raising rates to subdue persistent inflation. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC he thinks the Fed should hike one more time then pause to consider the next move. The prospect of peak rates has been applying downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee says he is watching for other 'credit shoes' to drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

April 19 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday that after the failure of two large regional Fed banks last month roiled the financial sector, he is waiting to see "whether there are other credit shoes to drop." "Not in the crisis sense, but in the how much squeezing is going to be coming up from the bank side," Goolsbee said in an interview with American Public Media's Marketplace. "I think it’s going to matter for whether this economy is going to slow down." In the next two weeks, he said, he will focus on prices and credit. Reporting by Ann Saphir Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Crowded bonds unnerved
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

This has some wondering if the recent dash for cash and top-rated bonds has become a bit crowded and how much more tightening central banks have to do. As we move into the weeds of the first-quarter U.S. earnings season, it's been a mixed bag so far. That clearly unnerved UK government bonds - where 10 year yields jumped 10bps - but it also jarred sovereign bonds around the world. Elsewhere, further signs of healing were evident in the global bank funding market. Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) sold $1 billion of additional tier-1 debt, the first major global bank to sell the risky securities since similar bonds issued by Credit Suisse were wiped out last month.

SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed to a one-month high against Japan's yen on Monday as traders eyed up another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan stuck to its easy money policies. Expectations of higher interest rates relative to global peers tend to boost a currency by making investments there look more attractive, and vice versa. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, pricing in derivatives markets shows traders think there's a roughly 84% chance the Fed will hike rates again by 25 basis points in May, up from around 69% last week . It hit a one-year high of $1.108 on Friday, with traders expecting further interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank even as the Fed nears a pause. Foley expects one more 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed in May before it holds rates steady for the rest of the year.

☆ Wall St dips to lower close as rate hike bets firm, banks jump
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Today we're taking bit of a breather," said Sal Bruno, chief investment officer at IndexIQ in New York. Citigroup Inc (C.N), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) beat earnings expectations, benefiting from rising interest rates and easing fears of stress in the banking system. The S&P 500 banking sector (.SPXBK) jumped 3.5% and JPMorgan Chase surged 7.6%, its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 9, 2020. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, seven ended the session lower, with real estate (.SPLRCR) falling most. The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 47 new highs and 205 new lows.

☆ Wall St slides as rate hike expectations firm, banks surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"As expected, the bigger banks were probably not harmed that much by the regional banking turmoil, and possibly even beneficiaries of it," Mayfield added. "We saw mostly strong and healthy balance sheets, and it's pretty clear (the regional banking) crisis isn't systemic." The S&P 500 banking sector (.SPXBK) jumped 3.4% and JPMorgan Chase surged 7.3%, setting itself up for its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 9, 2020. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, financials (.SPSY) were the sole gainers. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 37 new highs and 182 new lows.

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