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LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - Even if the U.S. dollar's singular dominance as global currency of choice is in fact ebbing, it may not automatically lead to a weaker dollar exchange rate - and could periodically mean the opposite. The big advantage of large dollar reserve holdings alongside wide commercial usage and trade in dollars overseas was clear. But the issue is typically read in markets as a reason to bet on a weakening dollar exchange rate - or even to pump alternatives such as gold or crypto tokens. Of course, that was a global economy riven with fixed dollar exchange rate pegs that supercharged the transmission of Fed policy, most of which have since been dismantled. That may be a world many countries prefer if they are sure of viable alternatives - but may not mean a weaker dollar.
Persons: chomping, Alan Greenspan's, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Mike Dolan, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Federal, OASIS, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Ukraine, Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, Iran, Venezuela, outflows
Family offices are making major shifts in their portfolios, increasing their exposure to bonds and emerging-market equities, according to a UBS survey. The wealthy cohort plans to raise developed market fixed income investments in 2023, with more than one-third of family offices aiming at high-quality, short-duration bonds, according to the survey, which earlier this year polled 230 global family offices. "The shift that's going on is very telling," Charles Otton, head of UBS' global family and institutional wealth business, told CNBC. "Developed market fixed income and government bonds are strongly attractive to family offices as they look to 2023 in a very different rate environment." Duquesne Family Office's Stanley Druckenmiller, for one, has been calling for a recession for a while .
Persons: Charles Otton, Otton, Office's Stanley Druckenmiller Organizations: UBS, CNBC, Federal, Duquesne
Philip Ripman manages the $1 billion Storebrand Global Solutions fund, with a focus on sustainability. As well as green energy stocks, Ripman also invests in chipmakers, cybersecurity stocks, pharmaceuticals and more. Ripman shared three tips for investing sustainably on CNBC Pro Talks , including how to play the renewables theme. Renewables are 'cheaper' right now Ripman said that renewable energy stocks look relatively cheap and offer "a lot of opportunity" right now. Consider what's needed in the future The four themes in Ripman's fund — smart cities, circular economy, equal opportunities, and renewable energy — are what he believes will be "essential in years to come."
Banks are accelerating their AI research and use cases due to the rise of ChatGPT and generative AI. While all six big banks have dedicated AI leaders, no two banks have the same org structure. This year is shaping up to be all about artificial intelligence, and Wall Street is no exception. Banks' priorities and tech strategies can also be gleaned from which divisions have dedicated AI leaders and which don't. Here's a list of 12 of the top AI executives to know at the nation's six biggest banks.
WASHINGTON, May 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. and Taiwan reached agreement on the first part of their "21st Century" trade initiative, covering customs and border procedures, regulatory practices, and small business, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said on Thursday. After the initial agreement of the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade is signed, negotiations will commence on other, more complicated trade areas including agriculture, digital trade, labor and environmental standards, state-owned enterprises, and non-market policies and practices, USTR said. "We look forward to continuing these negotiations and finalizing a robust and high-standard trade agreement that tackles 21st Century economic challenges," Tai said. Announcement of the trade pact comes just ahead of planned meetings between China's commerce minister, Wang Wenta, and USTR Tai and U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. The bilateral talks commenced last August, after the Biden administration excluded Taiwan from its larger pan-Asian trade initiative, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
CNBC Daily Open: Exhale and breathe
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
People walk by the bronze sculpture 'Fearless Girl' outside of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 21, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, thinks economic data don't support a pause in rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
CNBC Daily Open: Time to exhale and breathe
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A trader walks out of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street in New York City on May 12, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, thinks economic data don't support a pause in rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
WASHINGTON, May 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. and Taiwan reached agreement on the first part of their "21st Century" trade initiative, covering customs and border procedures, regulatory practices, and small business, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said on Thursday. After the initial agreement of the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade is signed, negotiations will commence on other, more complicated trade areas including agriculture, digital trade, labor and environmental standards, state-owned enterprises and non-market policies and practices, USTR said. "We look forward to continuing these negotiations and finalizing a robust and high-standard trade agreement that tackles 21st Century economic challenges," Tai said. Announcement of the trade pact comes just ahead of planned meetings between China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and USTR Tai and U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. The bilateral talks commenced last August, after the Biden administration excluded Taiwan from its larger pan-Asian trade initiative, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
CNBC's Investing in Space newsletter offers a view into the business of space exploration and privatization, delivered straight to your inbox. Just over two and a half years after SpaceX's Starlink first rolled out its beta service, the satellite internet company now has more than 1.5 million subscribers. Starlink "introduced a service that leapfrogs the capability, although not quite the cost," of existing satellite and terrestrial competitors. Brazil, he noted, is the most dramatic example of Starlink taking share from incumbent satellite providers, where Starlink has added nearly the same amount of customers that Hughes has lost. With Starlink going after nearly every market vertical – from consumers to governments and everything in between – Prokosh noted customers are often just adding Starlink to existing options.
Banks are accelerating their AI research and use cases due to the rise of ChatGPT and generative AI. While all six big banks have dedicated AI leaders, no two banks have the same org structure. This year is shaping up to be all about artificial intelligence, and Wall Street is no exception. Banks' priorities and tech strategies can also be gleaned from which divisions have dedicated AI leaders and which don't. Here's a list of 12 of the top AI executives to know at the nation's six biggest banks.
Trading in cryptocurrencies is akin to gambling and should be treated as such, British lawmakers said. Unbacked tokens like bitcoin and ether aren't underpinned by underlying assets and have "no intrinsic value," lawmakers on the U.K. Treasury Select Committee said in a report published Tuesday. The Treasury committee said it was concerned by government proposals to regulate consumer crypto trading as a financial service. This, lawmakers said, would create a "halo" effect that leads people to believe crypto trading is safe and protected, when this is not the case. Blair Halliday, U.K. managing director for top U.S. crypto exchange Kraken, said: "We fundamentally disagree with the Treasury Select Committee's conclusion that cryptoassets have no intrinsic value.
A Historic Breach of Fiduciary Duty
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Marlo Oaks | Todd Russ | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Highlights from a Fox Business interview with Jamie Dimon, in which the J.P. Morgan CEO discussed issues surrounding his WSJ op-ed, 'The West Needs America's Leadership.' Image: Zuma Press Composite: Mark KellyMany American workers don’t realize that their hard-earned money is being used against them. It is perhaps the most severe breach of the fiduciary standard in American history. Treasurers and other state financial officers are fiduciaries—legal stewards of Americans’ retirement assets, not the owners of those assets. Lately such proposals have included requests that U.S. financial institutions align their lending, financing and underwriting activities with a net-zero-emissions world.
AI offers leisure, if not happiness
  + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Robert Cyran | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The hours consumed by housework and employed jobs, however, fell by 3.8 hours per day on average, leaving more time for leisure. The loss of manufacturing jobs induced decades of pain on the U.S. Midwest, as it took workers time to find, or retrain for, service jobs. AI might erode the accomplishment people feel from work, or devalue leisure time because people will have too much of it. Past economic shifts have led to increased economic inequality. But all this leisure will leave people with lots of time to argue about what level is optimal.
The biggest hedge funds are battling it out to attract and retain top talent and outperform peers. Insider has talked to a number of hedge funds to get a peek into their recruiting strategies. Shaw, and Bridgewater are in constant competition for the best and brightest to help them gain an edge in the cutthroat investment industry. Internships and fellowshipsThe opaque and secretive world of hedge funds might not necessarily be an obvious choice for many college graduates. Investment training programsTypically, hedge funds acquired their investment talent after a few years of working at an investment bank.
Big U.S. firms adopt cautious tone on China recovery
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
In April, China's imports contracted sharply, underscoring signs of weak domestic demand as a battered property market, worries over job stability and global economic uncertainty kept shoppers wary. "We grew mid-single digits in China, which had previously been a double-digit growth market for us pre-pandemic. "Consumer confidence remains weak and shaken because many Chinese faced job and salary cuts in 2022 and Chinese New Year bonuses in 2023 were low," said Shaun Rein, managing director at China Market Research Group. Still, a rapid recovery in domestic travel demand propped up sales at hotels. "China will be a growth driver for many multi-national companies but will not be at the high growth rates many analysts predict," China Market Research's Rein said.
PacWest leads losses in regional bank stocks
  + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
May 9 (Reuters) - Shares of PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) looked set to lead declines in U.S. regional lenders at market open on Tuesday as investors feared the ongoing banking crisis could deepen. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) hit a 30-month low last week after the collapse of First Republic Bank and PacWest's decision to explore strategic options. PacWest and Western Alliance, which have been at the heart of the sell-off in regional banks, saw the steepest decline in deposits in the first quarter after First Republic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Western Alliance (WAL.N) dropped 1.5%, while First Horizon Corp (FHN.N) and Zion Bancorp (ZION.O) dipped 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, with Arfstrom noting that the pullback in banks shares overall have made their valuations attractive. Wall Street executives and bank analysts last week called on regulators to quickly provide more protection for bank deposits and consider other backstops, arguing only an intervention could stop the crisis.
Those concerns intensified in February after U.N. inspectors revealed their discovery of uranium particles of 83.7% purity at an Iran nuclear facility built deep underground to protect it from air strikes. Western officials fear a nuclear-armed Iran could threaten Israel, Gulf Arab oil producers, and spark a regional arms race. A senior Iranian nuclear official said Tehran would not take the revival of U.N. sanctions lying down. But Western officials and analysts say that Iran's production of 90% uranium would demand a significant response. 'FACE A CRISIS AT SOME POINT'While Western officials want to leave the door open for diplomacy, tensions with Russia and China make that harder.
REUTERS/Amanda Andrade-RhoadesWASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - Democratic U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday urged the U.S. Trade Representative and State Department to eliminate investor-state dispute settlement provisions from current and future trade deals and to intervene on behalf of Honduras against a U.S. company's nearly $11 billion claim against the country. In a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Trade Representative Katherine Tai seen by Reuters, 33 lawmakers said that investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) systems in trade deals constitute a "problematic corporate handout" that violates countries' sovereignty and democracy rights. The Democrats signing the letter said the case could require impoverished Honduras to pay billions of taxpayer dollars to a company that has "weaponized" the dispute settlement provisions. The dispute settlement provisions had been a way to protect U.S. firms from abrupt changes in trading partners' government policies by providing recourse through arbitration. The letter cited Georgetown University research tallying $27.8 billion in ISDS settlement orders against Latin American governments, with Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico and Ecuador the worst hit.
But Nvidia has created variants of its chips for the Chinese market that are slowed down to meet U.S. rules. Even the slowed Nvidia chips represent an improvement for Chinese firms. The back-and-forth between government and industry exposes the U.S. challenge of slowing China's progress in high tech without hurting U.S. companies. Chip industry sources said that was an effective action. Some in the AI industry believe that is still plenty of speed.
However, it remained below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction for the 10th straight month in a row, the longest such streak since May 2017. "April PMI data provided further evidence that South Korean manufacturing firms continued to struggle in the face of the current global economic weakness," said economist Usamah Bhatti at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Sub-indexes showed output shrank for a 12th month, but at the joint-softest pace in the streak. New orders fell for a 10th month, with the pace also easing from the previous month. New export orders fell for a 14th month, at a pace only slightly milder than the month before.
Wells Fargo's Legal Specialty Group reported a 1.5% drop in demand, calculated as the number of hours lawyers billed. Firms among the 50 highest-grossing U.S. law firms saw a 2% drop compared to the first quarter of 2022, the report said. The average number of hours lawyers billed in the first quarter of 2023 was down 6% from the same period last year, from 1,634 to 1,536 hours, Wells Fargo found. The survey included 66 of the top 100 U.S. law firms by revenue as identified by The American Lawyer. Owen Burman, a senior consultant in the Wells Fargo unit, said it was surprising to see any growth at all.
Italy wary of raising taxes on web firms, fearing U.S. reaction
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
ROME, May 2 (Reuters) - Italy must be cautious about taxing web companies more heavily as it risks retaliation from the United States, Deputy Economy Minister Maurizio Leo said on Tuesday. A tax on digital companies including U.S. tech giants has been effective since 2020 and is worth some 300 million euros ($329 million) per year. "We cannot go beyond that," Leo told a parliamentary hearing. At the end of 2019, just few weeks before Italy's tax was approved by parliament, Washington said the levy unfairly targeted U.S. firms. Leo told lawmakers the issue should be addressed as part of talks to implement a global minimum tax aimed at stopping big business from hiding profits in tax havens.
WEF — which hosts a gathering of global leaders in Davos, Switzerland, every year — found that employers expect to create 69 million new jobs by 2027 and eliminate 83 million positions. That will result in a net loss of 14 million jobs, equivalent to 2% of current employment. The rush to deploy artificial intelligence, meanwhile, will serve as both a positive and a negative force. At the same time, the proliferation of artificial intelligence will put many roles at risk, as robots replace humans in some cases. There could be 26 million fewer record-keeping and administrative jobs by 2027, WEF predicted.
As luxury stocks make waves overseas, State Street Global Advisors believes investors should consider European ETFs if they want to capture the gains from their outperformance. Bartolini lists price momentum as a third driver of the investor shift. His SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ) is considered a broad European ETF. While the fund's top holding is LVMH at 7.29%, according to the company's website, Bartolini contends the shift applies beyond luxury stocks and to lower-end consumer stocks. His firm's website lists French cosmetics company L'Oreal — which is up almost 30% this year — as another one of his fund's major holdings.
Reuters GraphicsMany U.S. importers are still sanguine, but their supply chains could still be disrupted as Vietnam's apparel makers depend on China for about half of their input materials, according to the country's industry association. XINJIANG LINKSWhile the halted shipments represent a tiny portion of the $27 billion worth of garments and footwear Vietnam exported to the U.S. last year, compliance risks may lead to more painful adjustments for Vietnam. That, in turn, will hit U.S. consumers as Vietnam is their main source of cotton apparel, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. However Nike has significantly reduced its output of apparel and footwear in Vietnam despite the country remaining its main manufacturing hub, according to its latest annual report updated to May 2022. Two officials from U.S. footwear and apparel industry trade associations said the new rules have had no major impact so far on Vietnam and blamed recent job cuts on lower global demand.
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