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☆ Asian stocks edge lower, dollar firm as US inflation data looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), though, slipped 0.3%, erasing part of Monday's 0.9% rally. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) dropped 0.4%, while Australia's benchmark (.AXJO) lost 0.2% and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.4%. Investors were mostly unmoved by Chinese data showing exports surged last month while imports eased. "The surprise lies on the downside" for the inflation data, particularly the risk of a drop below 5%, said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG markets. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, was little changed after earlier rising overnight from near the bottom of its trading range since the middle of last month.

Spot gold was little changed at $2,023.41 per ounce, as of 0232 GMT. If the inflation report comes hot and fans worries of another Fed rate hike in June, gold prices could eventually drop to $1,950-$1,920 level, said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai. Bullion is considered an inflation hedge, but higher rates dent the non-yielding asset's appeal. Besides economic data, market participants are also monitoring developments surrounding the U.S. banking sector and debt ceiling. "If there is news of further stress in the banking sector, we will see gold move towards the $2,100 level," Kedia added.

☆ Credit Suisse debacle raises oversight question: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

ZURICH, May 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Swiss authorities hailed the state-backed rescue of the stricken lender by UBS as a commercial solution that will be light on domestic taxpayers. Banking professor and former SNB official Urs Birchler tells The Exchange podcast why the quick fix is far from ideal. Listen to the podcastFollow @LJucca on TwitterSubscribe to Breakingviews’ podcasts, Viewsroom and The Exchange. Editing by Thomas ShumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

JPMorgan thinks Alkami is poised for long-term growth despite ongoing concerns in the banking industry. Analyst Alexei Gogolev initiated coverage on Alkami with an overweight rating and a $15 price target, which implies shares gaining 21.4% from Monday's close. Alkami provides software to regional banks and credit unions to facilitate online banking. JPMorgan said said Alkami's potential addressable market is at $11 billion in the U.S. as the modernization of digital banking for credit unions and regional banks continues. To be sure, Gogolev acknowledged that the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. banking sector has put downward pressure on valuation multiples on stocks in the sector.

☆ Gold holds ground as investors brace for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A five hundred gram gold bar, left, and a a one kilogram gold bar, produced by Swiss manufacturer Argor Hebaeus SA, in Budapest, Hungary. Gold prices flitted in a narrow range on Tuesday ahead of U.S. inflation data, which investors will scrutinize for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. If the inflation report comes hot and fans worries of another Fed rate hike in June, gold prices could eventually drop to $1,950-$1,920 level, said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai. Besides economic data, market participants are also monitoring developments surrounding the U.S. banking sector and debt ceiling. "If there is news of further stress in the banking sector, we will see gold move towards the $2,100 level," Kedia added.

May 9 (Reuters) - Digital stablecoin tether is winning the race for the title of the crypto world's "least risky" asset. Tether is already the top performer among stablecoins -- digital tokens pegged to some fiat asset like the dollar -- and has seen its market value soar since March. Buying tether and bitcoin is really a vote against the U.S. system," says Jensen. On CoinMarketCap's database of 23,891 tokens, tether has risen to number 3 with a market cap of $82 bln and a share of 6.83%. NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWSTo be sure, tether has long been dogged by doubts about its peg being backed by dollar reserves.

As a result, the combined position had been reduced to just 302 million barrels (7th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on May 2 from 534 million barrels (38th percentile) on April 18. The position has essentially returned to where it was on March 21 (289 million barrels, 2.16:1) before OPEC⁺ surprised investors by announcing production cuts on April 2 totalling more than 1 million barrels per day. Chartbook: Oil and gas positionsThe most recent week saw sales across the board in Brent (-69 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-37 million), European gas oil (-24 million), U.S. diesel (-11 million) and U.S. gasoline (-4 million). Fund managers had become especially bearish on middle distillates such as diesel and gas oil, the most exposed to the business cycle. Funds sold the equivalent of 71 billion cubic feet over the seven days ending on May 2, after selling 99 billion cubic feet the week before.

May 8 (Reuters) - PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) shares pared early gains on Monday, dragging down other U.S. regional banking stocks, as the Los Angeles-based lender's decision to slash its quarterly dividend failed to stem worries about its financial stability. Other U.S. regional banks also retreated. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo 1 2The KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) fell 2.82% after gaining nearly 4.7%. But hedge funds, which often engage in short selling, pushed back on Monday, saying in a letter to Gensler that a ban would be counterproductive. Yellen said it is in the SEC's purview to regulate short selling although there is a high bar for any controls if evidence of market manipulation was found.

May 8 (Reuters) - PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) shares pared early gains on Monday, dragging down other U.S. regional banking stocks, as the Los Angeles-based lender's decision to slash its quarterly dividend failed to stem worries about its financial stability. "The dividend cut is not a good sign," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. Other U.S. regional banks also retreated. The KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) fell 1.5% after gaining nearly 4.7%. "I have a general fear that smaller banks are going to disappear, and we're going to end up with just a few large banks."

☆ Fed says banking sector looks set to weather recent turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, May 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. banking sector overall appears well-positioned to weather recent industry turmoil, but the experience could still weigh on credit conditions in the future, the Federal Reserve said on Monday. In aggregate, it said banks remain well-capitalized. DEBT LIMIT CONCERNSThe Fed released the report shortly after a separate central bank survey found banks were tightening credit standards amid weaker loan demand. Beyond banks, the Fed said pressures on various market sectors remained within historical norms. Banking sector stresses were identified as a risk by more than half of respondents, up from 12% in the November report.

SummarySummary Companies U.S. CPI due on WednesdayPlatinum regaining investors' attention - ANZMay 8 (Reuters) - Gold prices were listless on Monday, as cautious investors awaited a key U.S. inflation data due this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Bullion prices fell more than 2% on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls data tempered expectations of interest rate cuts from the Fed. Gold would be among the "prime beneficiaries" if there are further signs of weakness in the U.S. economy, if the stars align for gold, prices could move to $2,100 sooner rather than later, Waterer said. On the physical front, China held 66.76 million fine troy ounces of gold at the end of April, up from 66.50 million ounces at end-March. "Platinum is regaining investors' attention as fundamentals improve," ANZ wrote in a note.

☆ Asia shares inch higher, U.S. inflation test looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. "Though our analysis suggests that the impact of a credit tightening against an otherwise healthy backdrop tends to be limited." S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both off 0.1%, after jumping on Friday in the wake of Apple's (AAPL.O) upbeat results. The dollar stood at 135.19 yen , with the euro at 148.93 and not far from its recent 15-year peak of 151.55. Brent was last up 3 cents at $75.33 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 5 cents to $71.39 per barrel.

"Responding to such changes have become a common challenge for countries across the world, including Japan," he said, adding that the topic will be among many issues to be discussed at this week's G7 meeting. "We're watching the situation with a strong sense of alarm, as markets and economies are globally intertwined," he said, adding that Japan's banking system was stable as a whole. Japan would aim to issue a G7 joint communique after the finance leaders' meeting, which may stress the need for authorities to remain vigilant to banking-sector woes, two government sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. The Nikkei newspaper reported on Tuesday the G7 finance leaders will discuss setting up individual emergency plans in case they face digital bank runs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who will travel to Japan, will tell her G7 counterparts that the U.S. banking system remains sound, a senior Treasury official said on Friday.

SINGAPORE, May 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose slightly in early Asian trade on Monday as fears of a recession in the U.S., which drove prices down for three straight weeks for the first time since November, began to recede. Brent crude futures were up 6 cents at $75.36 a barrel at 0022 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 8 cents at $71.42. "Crude prices may continue to take the rebounding tailwind," CMC'S Teng said. Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ PacWest rallies on dividend cut to bolster capital
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

May 8 (Reuters) - Shares of PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) jumped 39% in premarket trading on Monday and led a recovery in the battered U.S. banking sector after the lender sharply cut its quarterly dividend to shore up its finances. "Given the extreme volatility in the stock recently ... we believe this dividend reduction makes sense and can help the pace of capital building," RBC Capital Markets analysts wrote in a note. PacWest shares, which soared nearly 82% in their last trading session, were currently trading at $7.96. U.S. federal and state officials are assessing whether "market manipulation" caused the recent volatility in banking shares, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing a source familiar with the matter. Billionaire Warren Buffett, whose views are closely watched by investors, said on Saturday his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) was cautious around the banking sector.

☆ Gold flat as traders gear up for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A one-kilogram gold bar sits at Gold Investments Ltd. bullion dealers in this arranged photograph in London, U.K., on Wednesday, July 29, 2020. Gold prices were listless on Monday, as cautious investors awaited a key U.S. inflation data due this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Bullion prices fell more than 2% on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls data tempered expectations of interest rate cuts from the Fed. Gold would be among the "prime beneficiaries" if there are further signs of weakness in the U.S. economy, if the stars align for gold, prices could move to $2,100 sooner rather than later, Waterer said. On the physical front, China held 66.76 million fine troy ounces of gold at the end of April, up from 66.50 million ounces at end-March.

May 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. If the mood in Asian markets on Tuesday reflects the broader global mood on Monday, there's every reason to expect an increase in risk appetite and risk assets, despite a higher dollar and Treasury yields. But there was no obvious sign of a credit crunch, which fits with recent weekly bank deposit flow and lending data too. Several positioning and sentiment indicators suggest investors are the most gloomy on stocks - especially Wall Street - than they have been in years, even decades. Asian markets appear to be looking at the U.S. banking and debt issues with a 'glass half-full' mentality.

☆ Warren Buffett says Berkshire is cautious on banking sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( John Mccrank | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Rachel MummeyNEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) - Warren Buffett on Saturday said Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) is cautious around the banking sector, largely because of poor messaging by officials around government-insured deposits, as well as distorted incentives he said were brought on by banking regulation. "The U.S. government and the American public have no interest in having a bank fail and having deposits actually lost by people," he said. Part of the reason for that is that incentives in banking regulation are "so messed up," he said. First Republic Bank, the latest regional U.S. bank to fail, disclosed that it was offering non-guaranteed jumbo-sized mortgages at fixed rates in its annual report. "The incentives in bank regulation are so messed up and so many people have an interest in having them messed up -- it's totally crazy," Buffett said.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Trading on fear, not fundamentals
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Regional bank stocks continued tumbling Thursday; shares of PacWest and Western Alliance were halted more than once. At one point on Thursday, every stock in the KRE traded lower as investors sold off regional banks. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Central bank gold demand hits first-quarter record, investments surge on U.S. banking turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The process of crafting gold is seen at the Krastsvetmet company, one of the world's largest producers of precious metals in Moscow, Russia on January 31, 2023. Demand for gold among central banks notched a first-quarter record high in the three months to the end of March as overall global demand painted an otherwise "mixed picture," according to the World Gold Council. Total gold demand, however, was up 1% from the first quarter of 2022 thanks to a recovery in the OTC market. Louise Street, senior market analyst at the World Gold Council, told CNBC on Thursday that this was a continuation of trends that saw central bank gold buying soar to an 11-year high in 2022. The WGC expects demand among central banks to moderate this year after 2022's spike, though noted that where previous buying had been concentrated in developing markets, more developed financial centers were now increasing their demand.

☆ European markets set to nudge higher as investors assess monetary policy, data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

European markets are set for a modestly higher open on Friday as investors continue to assess the trajectory of monetary policy and await a fresh round of economic data. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed Thursday's session down 0.45%, having trimmed earlier losses, as investors digested a fresh 25 basis point interest rate hike from the European Central Bank. Shares across the continent are on course for a slightly negative week after a busy few days of corporate earnings and central bank decisions. Friday will see a slew of economic data releases, including April construction PMIs and March retail sales figures from around major euro zone economies. Wall Street has suffered a four-day losing streak as further fears were ignited about the U.S. banking sector.

☆ Shares rise, dollar weakens on bank sector fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 5 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose, the dollar eased and gold hovered around its record highs on Friday, as jittery investors remained nervous about the U.S. banking sector following another rout in shares of regional lenders. Wall Street ended lower on Thursday after Los Angeles-based PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) move to explore strategic options deepened fears about the health of U.S. lenders as pressure grows on regulators to take more steps to shore up the country's banking sector. Shares of U.S. regional banks sank this week in the wake of the collapse of First Republic Bank over the weekend that has brought back fears of a financial sector crisis. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but hinted that its marathon hiking cycle may be ending. China shares (.SSEC) rose 0.21%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) was up 0.6%, helping lift the region's shares.

☆ Oil ticks up, but set for third week of losses over demand concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose slightly in Asian morning trade on Friday, but were set for a third straight week of losses after markets witnessed dramatic drops on fears of a weakening U.S. economy and slowing Chinese demand. For the week, Brent was set to close down 8.5%, while WTI was set to close 10.3% lower. "It has been a double whammy for oil prices," said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG in Singapore. In China, factory activity unexpectedly contracted in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector. Service activity in China grew through April, though the rate of this expansion has slowed, data showed on Friday.

The blue-chip index (.FTSE) and the mid-cap FTSE 250 index (.FTMC) rose 0.3% each, as of 0830 GMT. Oil and gas sector (.FTNMX601010) jumped 1.7%, with firm crude prices and a weaker dollar supporting gains. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiked interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) earlier this week. Though the ECB signalled more hikes were to come, the Fed indicated a potential pause in its monetary tightening. "As long as inflation doesn't move higher, it looks like the Fed has done enough in the near term."

Lending standards, which were already at levels consistent with past recessions, according to several indicators in the most recent 'SLOOS' and NFIB surveys, will only tighten further. Although tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation, recession can still be avoided. A separate NFIB banking survey published this week shows small business owners are not hitting the panic button just yet, but concern is growing. "Small business owners are, not surprisingly, concerned about the stability of the banking system. A strong small business banking system is essential for small business owners to operate and grow their business," Holly Wade, executive director of NFIB's Research Center said.

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