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US stocks, meanwhile, have managed to pull up from their recent bear market into bull territory. Still, there’s good reason for investors to be optimistic, says Indrani De, head of global investment research at FTSE Russell. That makes sense, since tech and energy stocks have largely been driving markets upward over the last few weeks. For instance, leading venture capital firm Sequoia Capital held just more than $1 billion at SVB, according to the FDIC document. The FDIC document shows that Circle held $3.3 billion at SVB, a figure that the stablecoin company previously disclosed.
Persons: New York CNN —, Indrani De, Bell, De, froth, Matt Egan, SVB, Zhipin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, FTSE Russell, Energy, Communications Services, Technology, Tech, Consumer Staples, FDIC, Bloomberg, Silicon Valley Bank, Bloomberg News, Sequoia Capital, PayPal, Google, Apple, Internet Locations: New York, Russia, disinflation, Silicon, Beijing
Even though inflation is slowing in many countries after more than a year of interest rate hikes, it remains above the 2% level many central banks are targeting. Raising interest rates is the primary tool central bankers have at their disposal to get inflation down. That’s why the Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes at its June meeting after 10 consecutive hikes since last March. It’s harder for central banks to clamp down on inflation when it becomes sticky, or persistently high. That’s because research shows that inflation, if unaddressed, could become even more sticky and harder for central banks to control with rate hikes.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, Bailey, don’t, Christine Lagarde, ” Lagarde, it’s, Michael Bordo, , Organizations: New, New York CNN, ” Bank of England, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Center for Monetary, Rutgers University, CNN Locations: New York
"There has been significant upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process," the MPC said. BoE policymakers had given little indication that a half-point rate increase was under consideration in the run-up to Thursday's announcement. Expectations for BoE rate tightening have surged in recent days - sharply raising the cost of new mortgages - and before Thursday's decision financial markets expected the BoE's Bank Rate to peak at 6% by the end of the year. The central bank also noted that short-dated British government bond yields had risen sharply - pricing in an average level of Bank Rate of 5.5% for the next three years. Last month the central bank forecast that inflation would fall to just over 5% by the end of this year and be below its 2% target in early 2025.
Persons: BoE, Silvana Tenreyro, Swati Dhingra, Andrew Bailey, Jeremy Hunt, Joachim Nagel, Jerome Powell, David Milliken, Suban Abdulla, BRITAIN BOE Organizations: Bank of England, MPC, Reuters, Central, U.S . Federal, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Swedish, Norwegian, Britain
The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points Thursday. The rate hike comes after Thursday's Consumer Price Index showed inflation remaining at 8.7% in May, way clear of the BoE's 2% target. UK interest rates are now at their highest level since 2008 after the bank brought in its largest rate hike since February. The British pound traded level at around $1.28 after the bank announced its latest decision, while 10-year government bond yields fell by around 13 basis points. "Interest rate rises have been called a blunt instrument, but with very few tools in the box, it seems a sledgehammer is required to fight inflation," he added.
Persons: It's, , Myron Jobson Organizations: of England, Service, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Interactive Locations: Bank of England
VIEW Bank of England delivers hefty rate hike
  + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Traders scrambled to price in a peak to UK rates of as much 6% and its implications for the risk of recession, and rate-sensitive stocks like banks and homebuilders slid. MONEY MARKETS: UK 2-year gilts dropped sharply, then rose after the decision but were last unchanged at 5.04%. But even if the bank hasn't offered up any new guidance, the rate decision itself is revealing. The UK has the unenviable title of highest core inflation rate in the G7, and by quite some margin. "Having said that, their policy is now more data dependent, the bank had to deliver a rate increase.
Persons: homebuilders, Sterling, gilts, JAMIE NIVEN, JAMES SMITH, hasn’t, hasn't, BoE, SEEMA SHAH, CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, Bailey, PAUL OBERSCHNEIDER, BOE, ” ROBERT JEFFREE, GARY SMITH, EVELYN, Yoruk Organizations: Bank of England, MPC, Traders, CANDRIAM, ING, LONDON, IG GROUP, Treasury, EMEA, Thomson
WHY HAVE UK MORTGAGE RATES SOARED? There are two main types of mortgage rate - variable and fixed. Fixed rate mortgages lock in a particular interest rate upfront, usually for a period of two to five years. Banks say they have to reflect these market moves to avoid pricing mortgages at a loss. Critics say banks could do much more, particularly as they have passed rate rises through to savers much more slowly than mortgage rates have risen.
Persons: BoE, Banks, Nicholas Mendes, John Charcol, Mendes, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, Roger Gewolb, Sinead Cruise, Iain Withers, Catherine Evans Organizations: Soaring, Bank of, WHO, Finance, ASK, Labour, Fair Finance, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Britain, Bank of England, States
Not only are his current approval ratings historically low, they are particularly poor given that unemployment is at its lowest in more than half a century. As a result, Biden's approval ratings could reasonably be expected to rise if inflation continues to decline. Reuters analysis suggests presidential approval ratings are rarely below 40% when inflation is 6% or lower. What will have a greater impact on consumers' and voters' well-being - unemployment pain or inflation gain? Some economists say the 'Misery Index', the unemployment rate plus the inflation rate, is a decent proxy for people's happiness and even presidential approval ratings.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Biden, Harry Truman's, Joseph Macri, Bahram Adrangi, 3pp, Andy Schneider, Lina El, Robert MacCulloch, Hamed Shafiee, David Blanchflower, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wall, Bank of America, Atlanta, Reuters, Presidents, BNP, Dartmouth College, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S, Iraq
Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley Investment Management says a "meaningful" correction may not happen right now. "But it's premature and the stock market is right now feeding off … those lower inflation month to month price," Slimmon added. Stock picks Nevertheless, there are pockets of opportunity in the market right now, according to Slimmon. He named three stocks to buy: American equipment rental company United Rentals , financial services company Ameriprise and building materials company CRH . "In my opinion, investors looking to get into the market will view the recent laggards as an opportunity to get more invested," he said of those three stocks.
Persons: it's, Andrew Slimmon, CNBC's, There's, you've, Slimmon, there's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, U.S . Federal, Federal Reserve, Stock, United Rentals Locations: bullish
London CNN —Existing and aspiring UK homeowners are bracing for a fresh wave of misery as a rise in benchmark borrowing costs threatens to push up monthly mortgage payments. The yield on the country’s two-year government bonds — which is used to set interest rates on mortgages — jumped to 4.87% on Tuesday. The figures have pointed to persistent inflationary pressures, increasing the chances of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and driving up gilt yields. “We’ve had to reflect that in our mortgage rates,” the spokesperson said. “[UK inflation] is a chronic problem, and it’s not something that you can deal with quickly.”
Persons: Liz Truss, Craig, Samuel Tombs, “ We’ve, Paul Dales, , Truss, Henry Nicholls, , Ed Al Organizations: London CNN, Bank of England, Royal London Asset Management, CNN, Pantheon, UK Finance, HSBC, HSBC UK, Capital Economics, Reuters, Columbia Threadneedle Investments Locations: United Kingdom, Europe, United States
In December 2021 the BoE was one of the first major central banks to draw a line under its ultra-loose pandemic-era monetary policy. It has now raised borrowing costs by 440 basis points across 12 consecutive meetings in modest-sized rate rises. All 64 economists polled June 12-14 said the BoE would add another 25 basis points to Bank Rate on June 22, taking it to 4.75%. A majority of economists surveyed, 52 of 64, said Bank Rate will have peaked by end-August with the median forecast putting it at 5.00%. Although starting later, both the Fed and the European Central Bank have largely been raising rates in greater magnitudes than the BoE.
Persons: BoE, Ellie Henderson, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, Megan Greene, Silvana Tenreyro, Stefan Koopman, Investec's Henderson, Jonathan Cable, Aditi Verma, Anitta Sunil, Ross Finley, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, Committee, Rabobank, U.S . Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Investec
June 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Bancorp's (USB.N) Andy Cecere forecast a "moderate" recession that would be short and "not very deep in terms of severity," CEO of the lender said at a conference on Tuesday. He also said one more interest rate hike was expected from the Federal Reserve in the summer. The relentless monetary policy tightening has raised the odds of a recession as consumers cut down on discretionary spending, which is hurting loan demand. U.S. Bancorp is seeing a drop in loan demand in the second quarter compared to a year earlier, Cecere said. Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Andy Cecere, Cecere, Niket, Shinjini Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Bancorp, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru
Key beneficiaries Analysts recently flagged cash-rich companies as a beneficiary of higher interest rates. It said that consumer services, software and semiconductor companies are among those likeliest to profit the most from higher interest. "With higher interest rates, companies with robust balance sheets may be able to generate substantial amounts of interest income and surprise to the upside." The higher the free cash flow yield, the better a company's position to meet its debt obligations. A company with a high free cash flow is also able to access cash more quickly in the event of an emergency or opportunity.
Persons: James Demmert, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, BofA, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Main, Research, Companies, ", CNBC Pro, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Broadcom, German, Lufthansa, Honda Motor, Renault Locations: U.S
LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - Central banks like the Bank of England will find it hard to communicate the end of their rate-tightening cycle and should not sweat over this at the expense of taking steps to bring down inflation, BoE policymaker Catherine Mann said on Monday. "Fine-tuning is something that monetary policy is not very good at if the ultimate objective is to focus on inflation," Mann said at an event hosted by U.S. political strategists Signum Global Advisors. Many economists, by contrast, expect the BoE to stop sooner - or if not, to pause to assess the impact of the rapid series of rate rises. "Inflation expectations, in fact, are on the downswing even as some of these core and services prints have been more robust than we would have hoped for," Mann said. Economic activity had also continued to grow modestly and in line with expectations, Mann added.
Persons: BoE policymaker Catherine Mann, Mann, Signum, BoE, Jonathan Haskel, it's, David Milliken, Suban Abdulla, William James, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank of England, Signum Global Advisors, Bank of Canada, Monetary, MPC, Thomson Locations: Central, Britain, United States
And even if the Fed does pause, Ferguson says it doesn't mean that more rate hikes aren't coming over the rest of the year. He isn't alone in the view that a Fed pause won't last long. This view is underpinned by, among other things, a labor market that continues to be tight. Others see recent cooling the labor market as a signal the Fed may soon have more need to moderate its rate hike strategy. "The broad picture here is the labor market is cooling in a sustainable way.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Roger Ferguson, That's, Ferguson, CNBC's, isn't, Michelle Girard, Steve Liesman, Dennis Lockhart, Lockhart, Fed's, Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, — Ferguson, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell's, Rucha Vankudre, Nick Bunker, Bunker, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon —, Solomon, Goldman, Frederic Mishkin, it's, Mishkin, we've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Bank of America, Fed, NatWest Markets, Atlanta Fed, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Conference Board, Labor, Lightcast, Former Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: U.S
For his rivals, though, the campaign has been frozen in place, with Trump again seizing the spotlight and relegating them to supporting roles. So when word of the indictment broke, DeSantis sprinted to Trump’s corner – along with the loyalists he is ultimately hoping will break for him. Look, look at this.”Among the 2024 field, DeSantis and longshot primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy emerged overnight as Trump’s most ardent defenders. Ahead of a new ad launch, its first of the 2024 primary, a senior adviser to the group said the new indictment furthered Christie’s political case against Trump. “While Donald Trump is entitled to the presumption of innocence, the ongoing criminal proceedings will be a major distraction,” Hutchinson said.
Persons: Donald Trump –, , Trump, Ron DeSantis, Justice “ weaponized ”, Joe Biden, Donald, DeSantis, ” DeSantis, Clinton, Hunter, Biden, Trump’s, Attorney Alvin Bragg, ” Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ramaswamy, , Mike Pence, Hugh Hewitt, “ We’re, ” Pence, , Pence, General Merrick Garland, Nikki Haley, ” Haley, Haley, South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, demurred, ” Scott, Chris Christie, ” Christie, Colin Reed, Asa Hutchinson, Donald Trump, ” Hutchinson Organizations: CNN, Trump, Florida Gov, Department, Justice, Republican, Republican Party, Manhattan, Attorney, Justice Department, FBI, United Nations, South Carolina Gov, Fox, Department of Justice, Former New Jersey Gov, , GOP, Arkansas Gov Locations: Florida, Iowa’s, New York City, , South Florida, Iran, , South Carolina, Arkansas
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) May 30, 2023. Stock markets are ignoring a "laundry list" of potential risks in their recent bull run, and a big downturn could be incoming, according to Julian Howard, investment director for multi-asset solutions at GAM Investments. "There's this laundry list of problems, and interest rates and inflation haven't gone away. The debt ceiling is done, and I think there's a sense that, actually, the markets need to refocus again on inflation and rates," Howard said. "The U.S. consumer is pretty ambivalent about inflation, it kind of expects higher inflation now, and that's dangerous because that entrenches higher inflation itself, because obviously expectations lead to higher inflation."
Persons: Julian Howard, Howard, CNBC's, haven't Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, GAM Investments, Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Locations: U.S
US services sector softens, factory orders boosted by defense
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
"Momentum had been very strong in the services sector since the reopening process began, but the sector is clearly cooling down now," Thomas Simons, U.S. economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note. The services sector is at the center of the battle against inflation, as services prices tend to be stickier and less responsive to rate hikes. ISM services PMISome economists view the ISM services prices paid gauge as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. Excluding the defense sector, orders were down 0.4%, and excluding transportation orders - where military orders again had the largest footprint - bookings were down 0.2%. With consumer spending shifting more toward services, consumer goods orders slid for a third straight month to their lowest level since February 2022.
Persons: Thomas Simons, Simons, Lucia Mutikani, Dan Burns, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Institute for Supply Management, Reuters, PMI, ISM, Fed, Jefferies, U.S, Services, Commerce Department, Factory, Thomson Locations: U.S
And the implications don't just stop there — Armstrong believes that "virtually all assets" will feel the pain. Opportunities also exist within fixed income and commoditiesWith equities taking the spotlight in the prior regime, fixed income may have slipped under the radar for many investors. But now, Armstrong believes that the way in which investors think about fixed income needs to change. "So history would tell you that now is a decent time to be allocating to high-quality fixed income." In an environment with sticky inflation, commodities would serve investors well as a good inflation hedge and portfolio diversifier.
Persons: Schroder's Bob Armstrong, Bob Armstrong, Armstrong, — Armstrong Organizations: US, outperformance, Commodities
Since the release of their last economic projections in March, the unemployment rate has fallen and inflation has largely moved sideways. She expects the Fed to keep its policy rate steady this month "while hinting at potential further hikes," a way to compromise among different views and keep pressure on financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others insist that sort of erratic path is not their base case. The intent, rather, is to reach a "sufficiently restrictive" policy rate and remain at that level until it is clear inflation is falling towards the Fed's 2% target. "I do think they are done" with rate increases, he said, but "I cannot rule out another hike in June."
Persons: they've, Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Larry Meyer, Ian Shepherdson, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Reuters Graphics Reuters, North, Fed, Consumer, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Labor Department, Pantheon, Thomson Locations: U.S, North American, Washington
At the height of the tightening cycle in September last year, eight central banks hiked rates by a cumulative 550 bps. Year-to-date, G10 central banks have delivered 21 rate hikes and tightened by a total of 725 bps. That compares with 54 rate hikes in the whole of 2022 and 2,700 bps of rate hikes. Developed markets interest ratesMeanwhile, emerging markets were slightly further advance in the cycle with some central banks changing tack to easing mode. That compares with 11 meetings in April, where two central banks delivered a total of 50 bps.
Persons: Jean Boivin, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Hugh Lawson Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, BlackRock Investment Institute, UN, Thomson Locations: Australia, New Zealand, Norway, BlackRock, Israel, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia, Hungary
"The PMI surveys suggest that China's economic recovery was still ongoing in May, albeit at a slower pace. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April, above the 50-point index mark that separates growth from contraction. Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan also saw factory activity shrink in May, while that of the Philippines expanded, the surveys showed. Asia's economy is heavily reliant on the strength of China's recovery, which has been uneven with services spending outperforming activity in export-oriented sectors. In forecasts released in May, the International Monetary Fund said it expects Asia's economy to expand 4.6% this year after a 3.8% gain in 2022, contributing around 70% of global growth.
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Wang Zhe, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: PMI, Capital Economics, P Global, Caixin Insight, Jibun, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, TOKYO, China, Japan, Asia, South, Malaysia, Philippines
Central bank officials around the world have said taming inflation is their top priority, but rising prices have turned out to be stickier than originally expected. The U.S. economy saw a pickup in inflation that began in 2021 amid pandemic-induced supply chain issues. This led to record job openings and high turnover as people job hopped for more money and the unemployment rate declined sharply. "But this is an unusual episode where it seems like right now the main driver of inflation is actually labor costs, and what that means actually is that workers are gaining." But there are signs that wage growth is cooling, especially as layoffs have skyrocketed nearly fivefold in 2023 across some industries.
Persons: Laura Veldkamp Organizations: Columbia Business School Locations: U.S
New data out Wednesday showed that job openings and hiring both rose in April, while unemployment sits near 53-year lows. What’s happening: The number of available jobs in the United States rose unexpectedly in April after three months of declines. Job openings climbed to 10.1 million in April, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that he wants to see more slack in the labor market. “I love what I do,” Dimon told Bloomberg, adding he’s “quite happy” in his current job.
Persons: won’t, , Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, , Jefferson, Mark Hamrick, , Sam Stovall, David Kotok, Joe Biden, It’s, Mitch McConnell, ” Biden, Biden, Jamie Dimon, Elon Musk, Dimon, he’s, ” Dimon, Matt Egan, he’d Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Fed, Index, Commerce Department, FedWatch, Cumberland Advisors, Senate, , JPMorgan, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Locations: New York, China, Europe, United States, America
Investors are losing hope that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest-rate hikes in June. For example, several market experts have warned the commercial real estate industry is at risk if the Fed keeps raising borrowing costs. "But I do think it's possible they're going to raise a little more. Ed Yardeni, market veteran"The market has been remarkably resilient, mostly because the economy has been remarkably resilient," Yardeni said in a CNBC interview. "So I think they're where they want to be – and I think they're going to keep it here."
Persons: They're, , Mohamed El, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, It's, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Doom, Roubini, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Mark Nash, Nash Organizations: Federal, Service, Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic, Fed, Erian, Allianz, CNBC's, JPMorgan, CNBC, Bloomberg, NYU Stern, Jupiter Asset Management
Morning Bid: Debt vote in sight, but further Fed squeeze
  + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
[1/2] Visitors walk on the plaza at the U.S. Capitol in the midst of ongoing negotiations seeking a deal to raise the United States' debt ceiling and avoid a catastrophic default, in Washington, U.S. May 24, 2023. Relief over the likely lifting of the U.S. debt ceiling this week is being reined in by the uncomfortable prospect of even higher Federal Reserve interest rates - and the further evaporation of any 2023 easing hopes. Futures markets now see a 60% chance the Fed will lift rates by another quarter point to the 5.25-5.50% range at its June 14 meeting. Though largely illiquid out of U.S. hours, one-month Treasury bill yields were marked about 10 basis points higher than Friday's close. U.S. stock futures were about 0.5% higher, in part due to relief over the debt deal - even though, unlike the latest big debt ceiling standoff in 2011, there has been little noticeable disturbance in stock indices over the past month.
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