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Futures steady after Fed-driven selloff
  + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A Wall St. street sign is seen near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 17, 2019. The three main indexes finished more than 1.7% down on Wednesday, with the Dow (.DJI) posting its lowest close since June 17. The Nasdaq (.IXIC) and S&P 500 (.SPX), respectively, ended at their lowest point since July 1 and June 30. Worries about the impact of aggressive interest rate hikes on the economy and corporate profits have left the benchmark S&P 500 less that 4% away from its mid-June low, its weakest point of the year. ET, Dow e-minis were up 147 points, or 0.49%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 17.25 points, or 0.45%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 48.75 points, or 0.42%.
The crypto bear market is likely to continue if bitcoin confirms its recent breakdown below $20,000, according to Fairlead Strategies. "Negative long-term momentum is growing per the monthly MACD histogram, allowing long-term oversold conditions to be absorbed. "Short-term momentum has shifted negative per a new daily MACD 'sell' signal, increasing risk as long-term support is tested." Another bad sign for the crypto market as a whole is the fact that bitcoin is once again outperforming ether on a relative basis since early September. Until then, expect the crypto bear market to continue.
With the Federal Reserve meeting this week, stocks could be volatile, and technical analysts say the S & P 500 looks increasingly set for a retest — and possible break — of its June low. In the past week, t he S & P 500 declined 4.8%, closing at 3,873, in its worst weekly performance since June. Wald now says a dip to 3,500 on the S & P 500 is possible. Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, said the 3,900 level was important and the area on the S & P 500 where the most volume traded over the last three years. The Oppenheimer technical analyst notes that the S & P 500 has typically bottomed around Oct. 9, before launching into a strong rally into year-end, based on the average composite of the last eight mid-term election years.
Stock sales by institutional investors has kicked up to highs for the year, S&P Global Market Intelligence said Monday. Against a backdrop of inflation concerns, institutional investors sold $51.2 billion worth of equities in the five weeks ended September 7. Hedge funds have also been net sellers this year, but retail investors remain net buyers. The selling by long-only investors was taking place against a backdrop of growing inflation fears, it said. Institutional investors have sold most S&P 500 sectors, led by industrials and real estate.
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Last week's decline after the hot consumer price index report pushed off the perceived moment of a Fed truce took the S & P 500 below the 3,900 area bulls were hoping would hold. The 2-year Treasury yield pushing 4% is rippling across asset classes, reflecting the combined inflation backdrop and anticipated Fed response. Some equity-valuation models tied strictly to this yield suggest the S & P 500 forward price-earnings "should" be more like 13x-14x rather than the current 16.5x. It's a crude instrument for gauging fair value but has largely been in tune with valuation trends in recent years.
Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday after a key August inflation report came in hotter than expected, hurting investor optimism for cooling prices and a less aggressive Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 dropped about 4.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite sank more than 5%. More than 490 stocks in the S&P 500 fell, with Facebook-parent Meta dropping 8% and Caesars Entertainment losing 7.3%. Headline inflation rose 0.1% month over month, even with falling gas prices. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a decline of 0.1% for overall inflation, with a rise of 0.3% for core inflation.
The second launch attempt for NASA's Space Launch System rocket was delayed due to a liquid hydrogen leak. Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesHydrogen fuel woes interrupted the second launch attemptThe new launch dates come after the launch of the Space Launch System and its uncrewed Orion capsule was called off for a second time on Saturday, September 3. "Teams encountered a liquid hydrogen leak while loading the propellant into the core stage of the Space Launch System rocket," NASA said in a blog post. After attempts to troubleshoot were unsuccessful, Artemis' launch director called off the launch. Invited guests and NASA employees watch as NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) rocket rolls out of the Vehicle Assembly Building, on August 16, 2022.
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