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☆ Morning Bid: Banks rescued, rates recoil, stress builds
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Early last week as much as a half point rate hike was almost fully priced. Now back as low as 4.8%, the implied peak Fed rate for the cycle has plummeted almost a full percentage point over that time. Goldman Sachs now says it no longer expects the Fed to raise rates on March 21-22. The Federal Reserve also made it easier for banks to borrow from it in emergencies. More broadly, the implications for Fed monetary policy caused most ructions and complicated overall index direction that's torn between bank losses and the repricing of rates.

☆ Citi says it's time to buy PNC shares after Silicon Valley Bank fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

There's a big buying opportunity in PNC Financial shares, according to Citi. Analyst Keith Horowitz upgraded PNC shares to buy from hold. Bank stocks are under pressure after the Silicon Valley Bank failure. PNC shares fell almost 11% during the prior trading week. PNC 1Y mountain PNC stock —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

☆ 2 top Wall Street strategists are warning that stocks are susceptible to more declines in March as investors anticipate weaker earnings and the Fed hurls the economy into recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Wilson sees a deterioration in earnings expectations developing in March. Two of Wall Street's most widely-followed strategist are warning that the month of March could see the unraveling of the stock market. For Wilson's part, he sees forward earnings expectations continuing to deteriorate despite recent optimism, and thinks that investors will start getting ahead of this turn sometime this month. Stocks tend to figure it out a month early and trade lower and this cycle has illustrated that pattern perfectly. Morgan StanleyWilson has also pointed out in recent notes that stocks remain historically overvalued relative to where bond yields are.

☆ The head of investment strategy at BlackRock's $2.2 trillion iShares Americas unit explains why the stock market has already hit its low — and lays out the 5 ways to invest now
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But Chaudhuri believes that stocks won't hit their 2022 lows, and that any slowdown will be mild. On the other hand, the US economy has shown signs of strength so far this year, and Chaudhuri believes that when a slowdown finally comes, it'll be both relatively mild and predictable. Within the bond market, Chaudhuri specifically recommends investors use a barbell strategy to gain exposure to both ends of the yield curve. As for the equity market, Chaudhuri said that from a historical perspective, value stocks generally outperform in a macroeconomic regime characterized by higher inflation and rates. Another benefit of value stocks is that they are currently trading more cheaply than their growth counterparts.

SummarySummary Companies Tech bank's troubles panic marketsFears spread over fallout from rising interest ratesBanks vulnerable as bond values dropLONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - For months, investors had shrugged off the threat of rising interest rates. In SVB's case, venture capital clients, unable to raise cash elsewhere, pulled money from the bank, forcing its hasty sale of bonds at a loss. In February, U.S. regulators said U.S. banks had unrealised losses of more than $620 billion on securities, underscoring the scale of the risks. Jason Benowitz, senior portfolio manager at CI Roosevelt, said SVB's risks were not unique with many banks sitting on such unrealised losses because rates have moved so rapidly. "The SVB situation is a reminder that many institutions are sitting on large unrealised losses," said AJ Bell investment research director Russ Mould.

☆ Our two financials differ from failed Silicon Valley Bank. But we're not buying the dips yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

The failure of Silicon Valley Bank is raising questions about the overall financial sector, which includes Club holdings Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS). For now, we're waiting for the market to realize that Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are different. However, Wells Fargo turned positive by day's end, gaining more than half of a percent. In this environment, startups were using up a lot of money that had been deposited in SVB bank accounts to run their businesses. People walk past a Wells Fargo bank on 14th Street on December 20, 2022 in New York City.

☆ Morning Bid: Bond blows batter banks as SVB cracks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SVB may be an unusual case in point - given its exposure to both last year's attrition in the tech sector, related startups and bond markets. Major U.S. banks were also hit, with Wells Fargo (WFC.N) down 6%, JPMorgan (JPM.N) down 5.4%, Bank of America (BAC.N) 6% lower and Citigroup (C.N) 4% lower. In currency markets, the dollar held the line on Friday in its lonely easy monetary policy stance. The BOJ held off making changes to its controversial bond yield cap policy, leaving all options open ahead of a leadership transition in April. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee resumes uptrend on likely dollar inflows, Fed risks linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, March 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee rose against the U.S. currency on Thursday, supported by dollar inflows and the underlying positive momentum, traders said. The rupee was at 81.8575 to the U.S. dollar by 10:22 a.m. IST compared with 82.0550 in the previous session. The rupee has not been impacted by the change in the repricing of what the Federal Reserve is likely to do at this month's meeting. The local currency is marginally higher than what it was before Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments. Dollar inflows are helping negotiate the renewed Fed concerns, they added.

☆ Frontier countries to suffer most if Fed rate gets to 6% - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Rodrigo Campos | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"This mix is generally a net negative for emerging markets." A recent Barclays analysis showed a 50 basis point Fed rate hike would increase interest rate volatility, which "would be more destabilizing initially, as it typically comes with EM FX underperformance, which could trigger a further leg up in EM rates." Analysts at JPMorgan expect the dollar to weaken once the terminal rate stabilizes, but a 50-basis point Fed hike "would be a regime-shift in favor of outsized USD-strength." A 6% Fed rate environment alongside still-hot inflation does make short-term rates in Chile and India as well as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary most vulnerable, UBS found. Chinese equities could provide a safe haven in a 6% fed funds rate scenario, UBS said.

Ahead of crucial U.S. jobs data on Friday, MSCI's broad index of global stocks (.MIWO00000PUS) fell 0.3%. This view has clashed with market repricing of interest rate expectations and bond market signals that aggressive monetary tightening raises recession risks. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said. U.S. Treasury yields continued an ascent on Wednesday, with the two-year yield, which tracks interest rate expectations, briefly touching 5.08% -- its highest level since 2007. After a series of jumbo hikes last year, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last month.

☆ Analysis: Governments could find avid buyers for record bond sales as ECB rates peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

March 8 (Reuters) - Investors have rapidly revised up their expectations for euro zone interest rates, but with a peak now in sight, governments might find it much easier to allocate record bond sales thanks to a cocktail of attractive yields and available liquidity. Traders are confident the ECB will have a smooth start to unwinding its huge bond holdings, a process known as quantitative tightening (QT). Bond demand is set to accelerate as markets increasingly price in a peak for yields. “The euro area keeps having excess liquidity and is able to fund smoothly the government bond supply expected for this year,” said Erjon Satko, rates strategist at BofA. Some analysts say that no matter what national treasuries do, they will relieve the pressure of record bond supply.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has said the central bank may be at the end of its rate-rising cycle, there's a wide 'hawk-dove' divide within the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday became the first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign. "I don't think other major central banks are going to be able to match what the Fed is going to do. "The dollar can stay elevated as long as the Fed remains the most aggressive central bank in the world." Of course, central bank cycles don't always converge. Related columns:- Hedge funds record wager on higher 2-year U.S. bond yield- Rates market overshoot - or no man's land?

☆ The S&P 500 could fall 20% by midyear as Powell's hawkish testimony sets the stage for higher rates than markets were expecting, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 could fall as far as 3,200, according to technical analysis from JPMorgan. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 entered that range, hitting an intraday low of 3,969.76 before closing slightly higher. Analysts had previously pegged 3,500 as an area where the S&P 500 could find a bottom in the first half of this year. Tackling inflation, Fed officials have raised interest to a target rate of 4.50%-4.75%. On Wednesday, he reiterated his view that markets may still see a 20% gain from current levels as inflation continues to cool off.

"If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said. Republicans focused on whether energy policy was restricting supply and keeping prices higher than needed, and whether restrained federal spending could help the Fed's cause. As of December, officials saw that rate rising to a peak of around 5.1%, a level investors expect may move at least half a percentage point higher now. With a 50-basis-point rate hike now in play, Brown said a strong monthly jobs report on Friday would likely lead to "calls for a 6% terminal rate," nearly a percentage point higher than Fed officials had projected as of December. How much remains unclear, but Powell said the focus will remain more squarely on how inflation behaves.

"If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate is currently in the 4.50%-4.75% range. Senator Sherrod Brown, the Democratic chair of the committee, said the Fed's rate hikes ignored what he viewed as a chief cause of inflation - high corporate profits. "To restore price stability, we will need to see lower inflation in this sector, and there will very likely be some softening in labor market conditions," Powell said. Powell's last monetary policy report to Congress was in June, which was early in what became the most aggressive cycle of Fed rate increases since the 1980s.

☆ Hawkish Powell puts 50 bp Fed rate hikes back on table
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"Powell makes it clear the Fed would react accordingly if the data suggests that inflation continues to move in the wrong direction. It was very clear to the market that the Fed is not going to equivocate in terms of data that suggests inflation continues to climb higher or remain sticky." "Six percent (terminal rate) would be a little higher than it is likely. ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT"The focus of the Fed is trying to get inflation down to 2%. "I prefer just one more 25 basis point rate hike, but probably we're going to get three 25 basis point rate hikes."

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidORLANDO, Fla., March 5 (Reuters) - Hedge funds entered February holding their biggest ever short position in two-year U.S. Treasuries futures. As of Feb. 7, funds' net short position in two-year Treasury futures stood at a record 658,802 contracts, up by more than 80,000 contracts from the week before. chartA short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. FLIP-FLOP ON FEDThe two-year yield last week reached 4.95%, the highest since July 2007. They see the two-year yield falling to 3.55% in the third quarter and 3.15% by the end of this year.

☆ BNPL Sezzle had a brutal 2022. The fintech's CEO lays out its comeback plan amid a competitive field in payments.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Paige Hagy | Bianca Chan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Fintech Sezzle is betting on a comeback after a miserable year for not only itself but the wider buy now, pay later market. Murphy's LawTrue to Murphy's Law, anything that could go wrong did go for Sezzle, Charlie Youakim, Sezzle's CEO, told Insider. In February of 2022, Sezzle announced it would be bought by Zip, another Australian-traded BNPL. The shift leaves room for a "proliferation" of BNPL and other payment options, Savage said. That way, Sezzle can still extend credit to the customer, who can theoretically build on their credit score with short-term payments.

☆ Dollar's renewed strength temporary, weakness ahead, FX analysts say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While analysts have been predicting a weaker dollar 12 months out for over five years, their predictions only came true in 2020 when the currency weakened more than 6.5%. There was also no clear consensus among analysts in the poll over dollar positioning, which turned net short dollar last November. Among the remaining 18, a dozen forecast a reversal to net long positions and six predicted an increase in net short positions. Even the British pound , which dropped more than 10% last year, was expected to claw back around half of those losses in 12 months. Sterling was predicted to rise from its latest level of $1.19 to $1.22, $1.23 and $1.26 in the next three, six and 12 months, respectively.

That has pushed 10-year bond yields across the euro area to levels last seen during the bloc's 2011-2012 debt crisis , . "Equity markets appear expensive when considering the possibility of prolonged higher rates." Patrick Saner, head of macro strategy at Swiss Re, added that rising government bond yields also made risk assets relatively less attractive. And while government bonds were seen vulnerable to further selling, higher yields are still viewed as a buying opportunity. "In sovereign markets now, 10-year German bond yields are north of 2.70%.

The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers, was flat at 104.64, but was still set for a February gain of 2.6%, its first monthly increase since September. The next move in the dollar is really a function of how the February data starts to play out in March," Atrill said. U.S. Treasury yields have also moved higher with the inflation sensitive two-year yield back at three-and- a-half-month highs. [US/}The dollar on Tuesday gained particularly against the Japanese yen , climbing 0.44% to 136.84, its highest in over two months. ,Elsewhere, sterling built on its gains from the previous session against the dollar, rising 0.2% to $1.2082.

☆ Gold faces worst month in nearly two years on U.S. rate-hike dread
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices eased on Tuesday and were headed for their biggest monthly loss since June 2021 as impending interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve sapped the non-yielding asset's appeal. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,816.19 per ounce as of 0317 GMT, after hitting a two-month low on Monday. "The question is still, 'How much more to hawkish Fed repricing?' "A pause in hawkish Fed repricing could see USD momentum ease and that can provide support to gold." Markets expect the Fed's target rate to peak at 5.403% in September.

A bumper data dump on Wednesday kicks off the new trading month in Asia, with China's manufacturing PMI report for February and fourth quarter Australian GDP among the most important releases for investors. Traders in Asia will be hoping for some encouraging signs in the economic data to get markets off to a positive start for the month. chartThe latest manufacturing PMI data from Japan, India, Australia and several other countries across the region will also be released on Wednesday. The annual rate of Australian consumer inflation is expected to slow, but tick higher in Indonesia. chartHere are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:- Manufacturing PMIs across Asia (February)- Australia GDP (Q4)- Australia inflation (January)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ US stocks end lower to cap off losing month of February
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks end Thursday's session lower and capped monthly losses for February. Yields climbed this month as inflation remains too hot for the Fed's comfort. The S&P 500 has dropped about 5% from this year's peak. The S&P 500 was dragged lower in the daily session as seven of its 11 sectors slumped, led by utilities. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:The S&P 500 has dropped about 5% from its 2023 peak of 4,195 that was reached on February 2.

☆ The CIO of a $9 billion real-estate investing firm explains why the US will avoid a 2008-sized crash — and says it's a good time to buy in correction-hit cities like Austin
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Even cities that were hit the hardest, such as Austin, are starting to come back from their lows. Macdowell explains why these types of correction-hit cities now offer intriguing buying opportunities. "I would take the view that in the right property markets, this would actually be a pretty good time to buy," he said. "On the real estate value side — in certain markets, certain neighborhoods — given the lack of inventory, prices will be well supported from where they are today." Although prices in the city have already corrected from their peaks, Macdowell believes that rental rates and growth will remain strong due to local housing demand.

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