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☆ Euro zone economy unexpectedly grows in Q4 but weak 2023 looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Among the biggest euro zone countries, Germany and Italy recorded negative growth rates for the quarter but France and Spain expanded, Eurostat added, based on a flash estimate that is subject to revisions. Russia's nearly year-old war in Ukraine has proved costly for the euro zone, which now spans 350 million people in 20 countries, given some members' heavy reliance on cheap energy. The overall picture nevertheless remains weak, with meagre growth forecast for 2023 due to a large drop in real incomes and surging interest rates. Ireland's 3.5% Q4 growth figure distorted the overall picture as it was driven largely by activity among big foreign companies based there for tax reasons, economists said, adding that without Ireland, euro zone growth would have been zero. "We continue to expect the euro area economy to contract slightly in the first half of the year, and the recovery expected in the second half is likely to be weak."

☆ Asian stocks make 7-month highs, Australian dollar gains on hot inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Asian equities scaled their highest levels in seven months on Wednesday after some regional markets reopened after holidays, and the Australian dollar hit multi-month highs as surging inflation made higher interest rates more likely. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.2% to a seven-month high but traded below the day's peak. Globally, stocks have posted strong gains this year after a torrid 2022, based on expectations that inflation is close to peaking and the rise in U.S. interest rates will taper off. Stronger-than-expected economic data in Europe eased market worries of a sharp recession there, but interest rates are still seen creeping higher despite declining energy prices reducing inflationary pressure. The New Zealand dollar slid after New Zealand reported annual inflation of 7.2% in the fourth quarter, below a central bank forecast of 7.5%.

☆ Asian stocks rise to 7-month highs, hot inflation boosts Australian dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Asian equities extended their winning run to scale their highest levels in seven months on Wednesday, with South Korean stocks leading the way, and the Australian dollar hit multi-month highs as surging inflation made higher interest rates more likely. Globally, stocks have posted strong gains this year after a torrid 2022, based on expectations that inflation is close to peaking and the rise in U.S. interest rates will taper off. Stronger-than-expected economic data in Europe has eased market worries of a sharp recession in the euro zone as energy prices decline, though interest rates are still seen creeping up. Analysts had thought there was some chance the RBA might even pause its tightening campaign, but the pace of inflation put paid to that. Gold prices held steady at $1,938 per ounce, hovering near a nine-month peak touched in the previous session.

☆ Aussie jumps, kiwi slumps after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped to a more than five-month high on Wednesday after inflation data came in hotter than expected, while the kiwi slipped after New Zealand's fourth-quarter inflation rose less than what its central bank had forecast. The euro held near a nine-month peak against the dollar, as traders weighed a rosier growth outlook for the euro zone sagainst growing signs of a looming U.S. recession. Meanwhile, the kiwi slid nearly 0.6% to $0.6469, after New Zealand's annual inflation of 7.2% in the fourth quarter came in below its central bank's 7.5% forecast. Data on Tuesday showed that euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, indicating the downturn in the bloc may not be as deep as feared. Policymakers are committed to taming inflation, but are split on the size of moves beyond February's likely half-a-percentage point increase.

☆ A Florida Democratic state lawmaker says the party must 'go back to the basics' in order to reverse recent statewide losses: 'We're very much at the bottom of the bottom'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A Florida Democratic legislator told The Washington Post of the party's struggles in the state. A party operative told the paper that the GOP continues to organize in the state, while Democrats have "regressed." Bush carried Florida for the GOP, but in 1996 then-President Bill Clinton flipped the state into the Democratic column in his successful reelection bid. The GOP governor, last fall, won reelection in a 19-point landslide over his Democratic rival, former Gov. In a recent interview with The Washington Post, Democratic state Rep. Anna AskMen said that the party had to "go back to basics" and overhaul its door-knocking and get-out-the-vote operations.

☆ U.S. economy losing momentum as retail sales post biggest drop in 12 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The second straight monthly decrease in retail sales, which are mostly goods, is undercutting production at factories. Retail sales plummeted 1.1% last month, the biggest drop since December 2021. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon 1 2Retail salesMANUFACTURING OUTPUT FALLSExcluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales fell 0.7% last month. The weakness in core retail sales is likely to be offset by anticipated gains in services spending. The government reported last week that monthly consumer prices fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December.

The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) was up 0.1% by 0910 GMT, extending gains for a sixth straight day on boost from rate-sensitive technology stocks (.SX8P) and industrials (.SXNP). Richemont (CFR.S) rose 2% on reporting higher quarterly sales as tourists returned to Europe and Japan. Still, the luxury group missed market estimates after sales in China plunged by almost a quarter. "For luxury, China is quite important with more hopes of rebounding activity in the first half of this year," said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Investment Bank. Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-PhillipsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ JPMorgan upgrades this under-the-radar Latin American airline, says it can rally 50%
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Copa 's stock could rally as air travel continues to rebound and industry-wide headwinds ease, according to JPMorgan. Analyst Guilherme Mendes upgraded the Latin American airline's stock to overweight from neutral. Mendes said Copa is attractive given its financials, specifically its debt-to-EBITDA ratio and liquidity. To be sure, Mendes noted factors like increased competition, weaker air travel recover than expected and re-elevated fuel prices could impact the stock's performance. Within the broader air travel sector, the analyst pointed to capacity increases and a 30% drop in jet fuel prices since October as evidence of an improving environment.

"The economy grew a little in November with increases in telecommunications and computer programming helping to push the economy forward. Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games," ONS statistician Darren Morgan said. The ONS said December's GDP would need to drop by about 0.5% for fourth-quarter growth to be negative when rounded to one decimal place, assuming no other revisions. Finance minister Jeremy Hunt said after the GDP data that "the most important help we can give is to stick to the plan to halve inflation this year so we get the economy growing again". Reporting by David Milliken and Andy Bruce; editing by Sarah Young and Kate HoltonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ This global ETF is the only fund that's posted gains every year for the past decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An ETF tracking Canadian consumer stocks is the only major fund to have had a positive return every year over the past decade, data shows. The Canadian-dollar-based fund beat the SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) by 59 percentage points in total returns over the past decade. It also outperformed the Canada-focussed iShares Core S & P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF (XIC) by about 125 percentage points over the same period. The Canadian consumer staples ETF has risen by 2% this year to 85.9 Canadian dollars ($64.15) a share. Unlike the larger index funds, the iShares S & P/TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index ETF includes just 11 stocks, with a significant weighting toward the food retail and packaged foods sectors.

JOSH BRECHEEN - FLIPPEDThe Oklahoman freshman went for McCarthy on Friday afternoon, saying a deal "will allow conservatives to rein in out-of-control spending." ANDREW CLYDE - FLIPPEDClyde of Georgia is a member of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, which is driving opposition to McCarthy. He moved to support McCarthy on Friday. ANDY BIGGS - OPPOSEDThe Arizona lawyer ran against McCarthy in the first round of voting for speaker. MATT ROSENDALE - OPPOSEDThe lone congressman from Montana has remained opposed to McCarthy, voting repeatedly for fellow Republican Kevin Hern instead.

☆ GM reclaims title as America's top automaker after a 2.5% jump in sales last year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

DETROIT – General Motors reclaimed its U.S. sales crown from Toyota Motor last year as the Detroit automaker eked out a slight gain in annual U.S. vehicle sales despite supply chain problems. GM said Wednesday it sold 2.27 million vehicles in the U.S. in 2022, up by 2.5% over 2021, including a 41.4% increase during the fourth quarter. Toyota said it sold 2.1 million vehicles in the U.S. last year, down 9.6% from 2021. Toyota edged out GM in sales by 114,034 vehicles in 2021 – dethroning the Detroit automaker for the first time since 1931 when it surpassed Ford Motor . Jack Hollis, executive vice president of Toyota Motor North America, on Wednesday said the Japanese automaker remains focused on retail sales, which are traditionally more profitable than commercial or fleet sales.

☆ This fund partially dodged market volatility by leaning on fixed income in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

But the Janus Henderson Investors' Balanced Fund has been able to shield itself from at least part of the year's volatility by reducing exposure to equities and leaning more on fixed income. Fixed income accounted for about 44%. "This year has been tricky, obviously, because there's been such a high correlation between fixed income and equity returns," he said. Within fixed income, Buckley said the fund has been more conservative by reducing exposure to corporate credit. Despite the challenges of 2022, Buckley is optimistic about 2023.

☆ Happy Fed Year: What’s on deck for the central bank in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Minneapolis CNN —America’s central bank found itself in a glaring spotlight for much of this past year, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell wielded blunt tools of interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening to curb surging inflation. That means the Fed, with its “laser focus on the job market,” could be “continually hawkish” at the start of 2023, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. “This latent strength in the job market could be the reason that the Fed over-tightens,” he told CNN. Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, from right, Lael Brainard, vice chair of the board of governors for the Federal Reserve System, and John Williams, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, during a break at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Moran, Wyoming, on Aug. 26, 2022. That’s 0.2 percentage points higher than the 4.4% rate they were expecting in September and significantly higher than the current 3.7% rate.

☆ Six battleground states will hold the key to the White House in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

AP Photo/Andrew HarnikGeorgia2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. Two years later, Biden won the state by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual 2021 runoff victories of Sens. AP Photo/Matt RourkePennsylvania2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. AP Photo/Andy Manis, FileWisconsin2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically-divided states in the country. But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.

The implications of the world's most dovish central bank turning hawkish are too big to ignore. Japan's net international investment position, the difference between the stock of assets it holds overseas and stock of Japanese assets held by foreigners, is more than $3 trillion. And with Japan's portfolio investment assets and liabilities totaling $7.3 trillion, big yen moves could spill over to global leverage, hedging and derivatives exposures. As Washington-based consultant and former World Bank economist Philip Suttle notes, Kuroda can justifiably claim to have ended deflation. Over his 10-year tenure as BOJ governor, consumer prices have risen an average 0.77% year-on-year, compared with average 0.13% decline in the decade before.

☆ Sterling inches higher, heads for biggest quarterly gain since 2009
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Currency traders were focused on the Japanese yen, which jumped after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) unexpectedly tweaked a key policy. Sterling was last up 0.1% against the dollar at $1.216, having fluctuated in and out of positive territory in morning trading in London. The euro was 0.15% higher against sterling at 87.49 pence, meanwhile, after falling earlier in the session. The BoJ surprised global investors by tweaking its bond yield control policy on Tuesday. It will now allow the 10-year bond yield to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target, from 25 basis points previously.

☆ S&P 500 futures rise, helped by Nike and FedEx earnings
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.4%. Investors were digesting earnings from Nike and FedEx that sent both companies higher in after-hours trading. Nike shares added 12% after the apparel maker beat Wall Street's expectations for quarterly earnings and revenue. The S&P 500 climbed 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite eked out a slight gain of 0.01%. There are a few more big names left to report earnings before the Christmas holiday.

☆ Top 25 roundup: No. 5 Houston deals No. 2 Virginia first loss
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

2 Virginia its first loss, 69-61, Saturday in Charlottesville, Va.Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark added 13 points each, while Jamal Shead had 11 points and four assists. Furst finished with 12 points and 13 rebounds, and Smith posted 10 points and 12 rebounds. Sam Mennenga led Davidson (7-4) with 14 points and Foster Loyer, Fletcher's brother, had 11 points. Kevin McCullar contributed 11 points, 11 rebounds and five steals, while KJ Adams and Jalen Wilson added 11 points apiece. Trayce Jackson-Davis had 13 points and a career-high nine blocked shots for Indiana (8-3), which lost its second straight game.

☆ Dollar gains as inflation pressures persist; eyes on c.bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index eked out a 0.12% gain at 105.18. Traders were also kept on edge in the run up to key risk events this week, including U.S. inflation data and a slew of major central bank meetings. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) will also meet this week, and each is likewise expected to deliver a 50 bp rate hike. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, November's U.S. inflation figures are due on Tuesday, with economists expecting core annual inflation of 6.1%. "The market reaction to U.S. inflation surprises has been asymmetric so far in 2022, with downside surprises having a larger effect than upside ones," said analysts at Barclays.

☆ Dollar rises as inflation pressures persist; FOMC meeting in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Traders were also kept on edge in the run up to key risk events this week, including a slew of major central bank meetings. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) also meet this week, and are likewise expected to each deliver a 50 bp rate hike. Elsewhere, the dollar rose 0.12% against the Japanese yen to 136.73, and against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index eked out a 0.04% gain at 105.09. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, November's U.S. inflation figures are due on Tuesday, with economists expecting core inflation to rise 6.1% year-on-year. "The market reaction to U.S. inflation surprises has been asymmetric so far in 2022, with downside surprises having a larger effect than upside ones," said analysts at Barclays.

☆ Dollar slips on recession fears; central bank meetings loom
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar eased on Friday as worries over a slowdown in the United States mounted, with traders on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week, where the Federal Reserve takes centerstage. Against the greenback, the euro rose nearly 0.5% overnight and edged toward a six-month peak hit at the start of the week. It was last 0.23% higher at $1.0579, and is on track for a third straight week of gains. Sterling similarly eked out a small gain overnight and last rose 0.23% to $1.22695, not far off Monday's six-month high of $1.2345. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will also announce their monetary policy decisions next week, with markets keenly watching for guidance on 2023's outlook.

☆ Dollar slips on recession fears, c.bank meetings loom
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Against the greenback, the euro rose nearly 0.5% overnight and edged toward a six-month peak hit at the start of the week. It was last 0.23% higher at $1.0579, and is on track for a third straight week of gains. Sterling similarly eked out a small gain overnight and last rose 0.23% to $1.22695, not far off Monday's six-month high of $1.2345. An inversion of this yield curve is typically a precursor to recession.

Rare protests in major Chinese cities over the weekend against the country's strict zero-COVID curbs have hit growth expectations in the world's second-largest economy. U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies such as Bilibili Inc , Alibaba Group Holding Ltd , JD.com Inc , Baidu Inc and Nio Inc , however, eked out gains, rising between 1% and 2.2%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.47-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.95-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 11 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 74 new highs and 102 new lows. Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ New York Democrats Help GOP to a Congressional Majority
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-26 | by ( Tunku Varadarajan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Republican Party has eked out a slender House majority, likely 222-213, four members more than are needed for control. The GOP should direct its gratitude to Misha Tseytlin , a soft-spoken Chicago lawyer who helped engineer the margin of victory in an unlikely place—New York state. Kathy Hochul approved a gerrymandered electoral map drawn by Albany Democrats that could have handed them victory in as many as 22 of the Empire State’s 26 districts. Mr. Tseytlin, 41, filed suit the same day, arguing that the map violated a 2014 constitutional amendment against gerrymandering that had been championed by, among others, the late former New York City Mayor Ed Koch , a Democrat. The state Senate at the time was under Republican control, the Assembly was Democratic, and Democrat Andrew Cuomo was governor.

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