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☆ Opinion | Is a Recession Near? Paul Krugman and Peter Coy Look Ahead.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Put it this way: If our story is that Fed tightening will produce a recession, we’d expect that to work mainly though housing, the usual channel. Indeed, Fed hikes led to a big rise in mortgage interest rates, which hit 7 percent almost a year ago and have fluctuated since then. Coy: Paul, you were right to call out those who thought we needed a punishing recession to get inflation down. The labor market has held up surprisingly well, which is wonderful. The labor market isn’t as resilient as it appears at first sight, either.

Persons: Coy, Paul, don’t Organizations: Mortgage Bankers Association

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had a chance in April to address Donald Trump’s growing momentum toward the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. FILE PHOTO: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis talks with journalists after meeting Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the latter's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, 24 April 2023. The unforced errors in that early stage had a lasting impact on DeSantis’ campaign, they acknowledged. “The president was dead set on attacking Ron DeSantis as early as possible,” Chris LaCivita, Trump’s co-campaign manager, told Reuters. LESSONS LEARNEDAides say DeSantis’ campaign has sought to make some strategic adjustments.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump’s, Fumio Kishida, KIMIMASA, Trump, DeSantis, coy, I’m, Trump’s, ”, DeSantis ’, “, Chris LaCivita, “ DeSantis, MAGA, LaCivita, ” LaCivita, Ford O’Connell, unelectable, Robert Bigelow, Ryan Tyson, ” David Polyansky, Evan Power, Power Organizations: WASHINGTON, Trump, Reuters, Iowa, TRUMP, Twitter, Republican, Social Security, Medicare, Inc, intoned, Conservatives, DeSantis, U.S, Congress, Republicans, Florida Republican Party Locations: Florida, Tokyo, Japan, New York, Iowa, “, Tallahassee, Lago

☆ Western rival to Belt and Road has much to prove
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Western countries have a window of opportunity to come up with a credible infrastructure plan for the developing world. U.S. President Joe Biden has been talking up the West’s so-called Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII). To be fair, the G7 is stepping up efforts to involve the private sector. These initiatives are running in parallel with efforts to get the World Bank to cooperate more with the private sector. For developing countries, it is good to have two rival infrastructure initiatives competing for their attention.

Persons: Joe Biden, PGII, marshall, It’s, Hung Tran, Janet Yellen, Antony Blinken, Jordan, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Peter Thal Larsen, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, Initiative, Group, Democratic, Global Infrastructure, Investment, Atlantic Council, coy, Treasury, European, Bank, United Arab, China, Thomson Locations: Italy, Republic, India, Europe, Zambia, Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, Senegal, United States, China, East, New Delhi, Indonesian, New York, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Beijing

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis talks with journalists after meeting Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the latter's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, 24 April 2023. Reuters spoke to 16 political operatives and donors close to DeSantis to reconstruct the roughly 10-week period from mid-March - before Trump's first criminal indictment in New York - to DeSantis' campaign launch on May 24. The unforced errors in that early stage had a lasting impact on DeSantis' campaign, they acknowledged. "The president was dead set on attacking Ron DeSantis as early as possible," Chris LaCivita, Trump's co-campaign manager, told Reuters. LESSONS LEARNEDAides say DeSantis' campaign has sought to make some strategic adjustments.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Fumio Kishida, KIMIMASA, Donald Trump's, DeSantis, Trump, coy, Trump's, Chris LaCivita, MAGA, LaCivita, Ford O'Connell, unelectable, Robert Bigelow, Ryan Tyson, David Polyansky, Evan Power, Power, Gram Slattery, Jim Oliphant, Nathan Layne, Alexandra Ulmer, Ross Colvin, Daniel Flynn Organizations: Rights, Trump, Reuters, Iowa, TRUMP, Twitter, Republican, Social Security, Medicare, Inc, intoned, Conservatives, DeSantis, U.S, Congress, Republicans, Florida Republican Party, San, Thomson Locations: Florida, Tokyo, Japan, New York, Iowa, Tallahassee, Lago, San Francisco

☆ How DeSantis' Early Missteps Hobbled His U.S. Presidential Bid
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Sept. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +11 min

Reuters spoke to 16 political operatives and donors close to DeSantis to reconstruct the roughly 10-week period from mid-March - before Trump's first criminal indictment in New York - to DeSantis' campaign launch on May 24. The unforced errors in that early stage had a lasting impact on DeSantis' campaign, they acknowledged. The DeSantis campaign told Reuters it did not want to discuss any past strategic decisions and was focused on preparing for the first nominating contests, which kick off with the Iowa caucus on Jan. 15. "The president was dead set on attacking Ron DeSantis as early as possible," Chris LaCivita, Trump's co-campaign manager, told Reuters. LESSONS LEARNEDAides say DeSantis' campaign has sought to make some strategic adjustments.

Persons: Gram Slattery, James Oliphant, Nathan Layne WASHINGTON, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump's, DeSantis, Trump, coy, Trump's, Chris LaCivita, MAGA, LaCivita, Ford O'Connell, unelectable, Robert Bigelow, Ryan Tyson, David Polyansky, Evan Power, Power, Jim Oliphant, Nathan Layne, Alexandra Ulmer, Ross Colvin, Daniel Flynn Organizations: Trump, Reuters, Iowa, TRUMP, Twitter, Republican, Social Security, Medicare, Inc, intoned, Conservatives, DeSantis, U.S, Congress, Republicans, Florida Republican Party Locations: Florida, Japan, New York, Iowa, Tallahassee, Lago, San Francisco

☆ Opinion | The Fed Drove up Mortgage Rates. Why Doesn’t That Count as Inflation?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

From March 2022, when the Fed began raising rates, through this July, personal interest payments, excluding those on mortgage loans, rose 69 percent, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Mortgage interest was in the C.P.I. But if you own and the price of your house goes up, that’s kind of good. To put it another way, interest is fundamentally different from the goods and services in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ marketbasket. Taking out a 30-year mortgage loan allows you to move into a house now.

Persons: ” Robert Gillingham, Walter Lane, ”, homeownership Organizations: Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, bureau’s, Labor, of Labor Statistics ’

But the essence of the argument is that lower bond volatility ups the amount of cash liquidity flowing around world markets, and vice versa. But it is the incremental movement in this giant pool that arguably matters most for stock markets and asset prices. Even though global liquidity is shrinking as you might expect in the face of rising Western interest rates, central bank balance sheet reduction and a higher dollar, other offsets are significant. But falling bond volatility has likely played a big part in softening the blow too. "The two together have helped overall liquidity conditions - but we are mindful that bond markets are likely to remain volatile and need to be monitored carefully."

Persons: CrossBorder, Mike Dolan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve, coy, Treasury, Fed, Bank, People's Bank of, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, punchbowl, People's Bank of China, United States

☆ Opinion | When Being Good Is Just a Matter of Being Lucky
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Indeed, one resolution of the “moral luck” paradox is that free will does not truly exist, Kristin Mickelson, a philosophy lecturer at the University of Colorado at Boulder, has written. The first drives drunk and kills a person. The second drives drunk and loses control of her car, but by luck doesn’t kill anyone. “Being blameworthy for an event is about being accountable for what you have done in the world,” Hartman wrote. There’s no excluding luck from our calculations, because luck “saturates” who we are, what we do and the consequences of what we do, Hartman wrote.

Persons: Kristin Mickelson, Roger Crisp, ” Robert Hartman, Hartman, ” Hartman, saturates ” Organizations: University of Colorado, The New Statesman, Ohio Northern University Locations: Boulder

☆ The Natural, Unnatural Genius of America’s Trails - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Lately I’ve been hiking the 125-mile-long Paumanok Path in eastern Long Island in sections. I love that it extends uninterrupted from Rocky Point in the west to Montauk Point in the east. It’s the network effect, which says that a network grows in value as it adds nodes. A long trail becomes better when a short trail through a special piece of woodland is incorporated into it. Conversely, the short trail attracts new attention and visitors.

Persons: Robert Moor, “, tingle, ”, Walt Whitman Locations: Mount Washington, N.H, Maine, Georgia, Long, Rocky, Montauk, Chicago

☆ Opinion | In the Autoworkers’ Strike, One Side Has the Higher Ground
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Members of the United Auto Workers union have a strong hand in their strike against General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis. If the automakers also refuse to cave, this strike could drag on, harming both parties to the conflict as well as the general public. It began what it called a “stand up strike,” picketing just three assembly plants, one from each of the companies. The idea is to throw the automakers off balance while allowing most union members to keep drawing a paycheck. “As time goes on, more locals may be called on to ‘Stand Up’ and join the strike,” the union said.

Organizations: United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor

☆ Opinion | An Economic Case Against Environmental Doomsayers
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

The inverse of the fall in the time price is a huge increase in what the authors termed “personal resource abundance.” For their next step, they multiplied personal resource abundance by population change to get population resource abundance. For example, for U.S. blue-collar workers from 1919 to 2019, the personal resource abundance of food grew 1,032 percent while the population grew 212 percent, for an increase in population resource abundance of 3,436 percent. For one, I don’t think the authors took climate change nearly seriously enough. They also said that the carbon intensity of gross domestic product tends to fall as nations become rich, which is good but not a solution to global warming, since the actual amount of emissions per capita is still higher in rich countries than in poor countries. Tupy wrote in his email that the environmentalists he and Pooley like are “techno-optimists” such as Bjorn Lomborg, of Denmark, the self-described “skeptical environmentalist,” and Nordhaus, of Yale.

Persons: Tupy, Pooley, ’, “, ”, Bjorn Lomborg, Steve Jobs Organizations: Yale, Apple Locations: Waterloo, “ Superabundance, Denmark

☆ Putin's spokesman claims Putin hasn't decided whether to run again in 2024, but a Russia expert says any indecision is just a schtick
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A spokesperson for Putin said the Russian president hasn't decided if he will run again in 2024. But Putin's feigned indecision is his standard schtick, a Russia expert told Insider. Putin's spokesman said there are no candidates who would pose a real threat to Putin's power. A spokesperson for Putin told Russian state media this week that the president has not decided whether he will run again in next year's election. In reality, there's little question that Putin will run in — and win — his fifth presidential election since 2000 come spring.

Persons: Putin, hasn't, Putin's, Vladimir Putin, coy, Dmitry Peskov, Simon Miles, Miles, Boris Yeltsin's, Peskov, Alexei Navalny —, Boris Nemtsov, Yevgeny Prigozhin, — Organizations: Service, RBC, Reuters, Duke University's Sanford School of Public, Soviet Union, Russian, Kremlin Locations: Russian, Russia, Wall, Silicon, —, Soviet, Ukraine

☆ Opinion | The Unfinished Pursuit of a Better Poverty Measure
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

It’s widely agreed that the official poverty measure — the one that showed an uptick in poverty last year — is outdated and inaccurate. The supplemental poverty measure is better, but it has problems of its own. It’s sometimes described as a “quasi” relative measure, which makes me queasy. An absolute measure of poverty sets a threshold for what constitutes poverty and sticks with it year after year, adjusting only for inflation. A relative measure sets the poverty threshold in relation to how other people live — for instance, as a percentage of the median income — so poverty tends to get redefined upward over time.

Persons: Adam Smith Organizations: Bureau, Scottish, Nations Locations: Europe

☆ Opinion | The Latest Thinking on Biden’s Biggest Economic Idea
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Rodrik, who is the best known of the three, was positively inclined toward industrial policy even when few other economists were. There are three justifications for industrial policy, each based on correcting a failure of the free market. Third, private companies require certain inputs that only government can reasonably supply, such as a highway to a port. Industrial policy can appear to be a failure if all you do is naïvely compare the performance of a sector with how much government support it receives. Tariffs are the best-known form of industrial policy but possibly the worst because they raise prices for consumers.

Persons: Rodrik, you’re, ”

Kristi Noem is expected to endorse Donald Trump’s presidential campaign when he travels to her state for a Republican fundraiser on Friday. Trump will appear in Rapid City for an event hosted by the state's GOP, and Noem is expected to introduce and endorse Trump, according to a senior Republican who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the plans. Political Cartoons View All 1148 ImagesWhen Trump was asked Thursday whether Noem will endorse him, he said, “I don’t know exactly.”“But I am going,” he said. In July 2020, Noem hosted Trump for a fireworks celebration at Mount Rushmore. During the first GOP presidential debate, she ran an ad to encourage people to move to South Dakota.

Persons: Kristi Noem, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Ian Fury, coy, ”, Noem, “, Kristi’s, John Thune, Mike Rounds, South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott Organizations: WASHINGTON, South Dakota Gov, Republican, GOP, Fox News, ” CNN, Trump, Mount, New York Times, South Locations: Rapid City, South Dakota, America

☆ How to Make Health Care Cheaper and Better - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Louisiana successfully used a sort of subscription model to ensure access to antiviral drugs against hepatitis C for people on Medicaid and in prison, the Rebitzers wrote. Patients’ incentives to restrain health care spending are limited to whatever they spend on deductibles and co-pays. Health care is one of the only parts of the economy where “slightly worse but much cheaper” is not even on the mental map, the Rebitzers wrote. The adversarial approach to health insurance, in which insurers spend huge sums scrutinizing claims, is enormously wasteful, the Rebitzers wrote. Another idea: “Trusted third parties could manage and attest to the validity of payments, as with credit card payments.”The Rebitzers acknowledge that in health care, especially, economic incentives don’t always work.

Persons: laud, don’t, Robert Shiller, ” Organizations: American Board, Internal, ABIM, Yale Locations: Louisiana, Europe, United States

☆ Pope acknowledges his Russia comments were faulty
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Philip Pullella | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Pope Francis holds a news conference aboard the papal plane on his flight back after visiting Mongolia, September 4, 2023. "I was not thinking of imperialism when I said that," Francis said about his comments last month. The comments caused an uproar in Ukraine because Russian President Vladimir Putin has invoked the legacies of the two Russian monarchs in justifying his invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of its territory. They were welcomed by the Kremlin, which praised the pope for his knowledge of Russian history. There were dark political years in Russia but the heritage is there, available to all," he said.

Persons: Pope Francis, Ciro Fusco, Pope, Catholic Church Pope, Francis, tsars Peter I, Catherine II, Vladimir Putin, Fyodor Dostoevsky, Peter, Catherine, Francis said, John XXIV, Philip Pullella Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Catholic Church, Kremlin, Communist Party, Vatican, coy, Thomson Locations: Mongolia, Russia, Ukraine, Kremlin China, China, Vatican, Beijing, Vietnam, Marseilles

☆ Opinion | A Strong Job Market Doesn’t Mean the Economy Is Recession-Proof
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

In comparison the job market has been, as I said, relatively strong. Pascal Michaillat, an economist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, likes to measure the tightness of the job market by comparing the number of job vacancies with the number of unemployed people. The labor market is efficient, he contends, when the numbers are equal — that is, when the ratio of vacancies to unemployed is exactly 1. One scenario is that the labor market remains tight for longer than it would otherwise, but eventually cracks. In fact, there are already some signs of cracking in the labor market.

Persons: payrolls, Pascal Michaillat, ”, David Rosenberg Organizations: Economic, of Labor Statistics, University of California, Rosenberg Research Locations: Santa Cruz, Toronto

☆ Opinion | The Promise and Risk of Biden’s War on Drug Prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

In a textbook free market, “fair” is whatever the market will bear. But these drugs don’t fit that model. Patents protect them from competition, allowing their producers to price them high. On the other hand, because of their high upfront development costs, pricing the drugs very low, at marginal cost, would be unrealistic. If that’s all the manufacturers earned from them, they would have no incentive to stay in business and develop new drugs.

Persons: Biden, Seshamani — Organizations: Big Pharma, pharma, Producers

☆ ‘Icon’ Billie Jean King is a ‘such an inspiration,’ says skiing great Lindsey Vonn
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Coy Wire | Ben Morse | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Billie Jean King is one of tennis’ original revolutionaries but her influence has been felt far beyond her own sport. “Billie Jean is, I think, just the epitome of what a strong woman can do in the world when working hard. She’s been just this pillar of equality,” Vonn told CNN Sport’s Coy Wire. I love it.”Lindsey Vonn heaped praise on tennis great Billie Jean King. But unfortunately, I didn’t do as much as like in my career as Billie Jean, but I’m still working on it and trying my best.

Persons: Billie Jean King, Lindsey Vonn, Vonn, Mikaela Shiffrin, Billie Jean, She’s, ” Vonn, CNN Sport’s Coy, King, “ I’m, “, ” Lindsey Vonn, Sarah Stier, Shea Kastriner, ’ Vonn, Bobby Riggs, Riggs, Billie, I’m, ” Organizations: CNN, CNN Sport’s, WTA Locations: American

☆ Opinion | Reviving America’s Fading Cities Isn’t Impossible
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Here is a list of the biggest U.S. cities by population in 1900: New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Boston, Baltimore, Cleveland, Buffalo, San Francisco and Cincinnati. Some of those cities have continued to thrive, but others have faded. This year Baltimore is the 30th biggest city, Cleveland 54th, St. Louis 75th and Buffalo 79th. Is the shrinkage of some American cities, towns and villages an inevitable consequence of economic change or something to be vigorously resisted? Surprisingly, even in the era of Zoom, Slack and other collaboration tools, people on the leading edge of new technologies still end up working in the same few big, crowded, expensive metro areas.

Persons: Louis 75th, Biden, hasn’t, appropriators, ”, Slack, Brookings Organizations: Buffalo, National Science Foundation, Brookings Locations: New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, St, Louis, Boston, Baltimore, Cleveland, Buffalo, San Francisco, Cincinnati, San Jose , New York, Los Angeles, Seattle

☆ Max Verstappen wins record-equaling ninth straight race as home crowd brings on ‘goosebumps’
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Matt Foster | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The German, then driving for Red Bull, completed the same feat during his 2013 title win. Alonso had started the race in fifth but – Verstappen aside – put on the driving performance of the day. “It was probably one of the more difficult races to win, but nine in a row is something I never even thought about,” said Verstappen. Red Bull boss Christian Horner was less coy about the achievements of his star man and indeed the team as a whole. Alain Prost and Vettel, five and seven race wins ahead of Verstappen as things stands, could be overtaken before the 2023 season ends given that nine races remain.

Persons: Max Verstappen, Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, Red, Christian Horner Koen van Weel, Sergio Perez, Perez, Fernando Alonso, Pierre Gasly, Alonso, –, Lando Norris, Aston Martin, Verstappen, ”, “, ” Verstappen, “ I’m, It’s, ” Fernando Alonso, Christian Horner, coy, ” Horner, Alain Prost, Lewis Hamilton, Michael Schumacher, Verstappen’s Organizations: CNN, Prix, Formula, Red, Red Bull, Getty, Aston, Monza, Zandvoort Bryn Lennon, Vettel Locations: Netherlands, Zandvoort, Verstappen

☆ Opinion | The Scientist Who Foresaw China’s Stagnation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

By 2013, Chinese authorities had begun to come around to his views. As parlous as China’s situation appears in the official statistics, Yi said things are actually worse. They also acknowledged that the fertility rate had fallen to 1.0, far below the replacement level of 2.1. Yi argues that China’s population is 1.28 billion, instead of the 1.41 billion the government claims. “China’s decline will be gradual,” Yi wrote in yet another commentary.

Persons: ”, hasn’t, Yi, “, ” Yi Organizations: Xinhua, Boao Forum, Asia, Times, National Health, Family Planning, Boao, Communist Party’s, Syndicate Locations: United States, China, ”, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Opinion | America Has a Mortgage Problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Indeed, seasonally adjusted sales of new homes rose 31 percent in July from a year earlier, while seasonally adjusted sales of existing homes (a bigger market) fell 17 percent over the same 12 months. The Fed raises rates to cool off the housing market and the inadvertent effect is to increase housing construction. On third glance, though, rate lock really does screw up the housing market. When the inventory of existing homes for sale declines because of rate lock, “the matching process that has to occur becomes more complicated,” he said. In May the inventory of existing homes for sale, 1.08 million, was less than half its average since 1999.

Persons: Robert Dietz, ”, ” Campbell, Princeton’s Markus Brunnermeier Organizations: National Association of Home Builders Locations: U.S, “

☆ Opinion | To Fight Climate Change, We Need a Better Carbon Market
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Something like Gresham’s Law is at work in the carbon offset market, which was set up to fight climate change. Bad carbon credits are driving out good carbon credits. The Barclays report focused on the voluntary carbon market. That’s the one that companies such as Microsoft and Salesforce are using to help reach their goals of net-zero carbon emissions. The voluntary carbon market can be a valuable mechanism for directing investment to developing nations that need help in the fight against climate change.

Persons: Gresham’s Organizations: Barclays, Microsoft Locations: British, Brazil

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