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☆ The 'mother of all melt-ups' in stocks could be quickly followed by a meltdown as the bubble in overvalued names pops, Ed Yardeni says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks could face a meltdown as the bubble in firms riding the AI excitement pops, Ed Yardeni said. The current bull market in stocks is unusual, as they typically begin when valuations for firms are low, he said. But if stocks rise too quickly, it could spell trouble for the market as the bubble in overvalued names pops. That ratio is now around 18, largely due to the success of the eight mega-cap firms. High rates also risk tipping the economy into recession, experts warn, which is also likely to weigh on stocks.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, meltdowns, —, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Fox Business, Yardeni, Nvidia, Microsoft, & $

☆ Everyone is getting less productive, and that's a big problem for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Joe Ciolli | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Even though the economy feels largely fine right now, such a decline has been a leading indicator of past recessions. Labor productivity has fallen for five straight quarters on a year-over-year basis, the longest such streak on record. Productivity is important to the economy because it's the primary input for a population's standard of living. As Insider reported in March, major retailers like Walmart, Target, and Kroger are locked in a labor-hoarding war over hourly employees that's pushed pay higher. In the meantime, the decline in productivity is setting off alarm bells for the economy.

Persons: —, Taylor Swift, they're, Larry Summers, Summers, Mark Zuckerberg, Marc Benioff, OpenAI's, there's, It's, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Yardeni, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Airlines, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Washington Post, Walmart, Target, Kroger, Stanford, MIT, Fortune, Brookings Institute

☆ Investors are losing hope for a Fed pause and bracing for another interest-rate hike instead. Here's what 8 experts have predicted.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are losing hope that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest-rate hikes in June. For example, several market experts have warned the commercial real estate industry is at risk if the Fed keeps raising borrowing costs. "But I do think it's possible they're going to raise a little more. Ed Yardeni, market veteran"The market has been remarkably resilient, mostly because the economy has been remarkably resilient," Yardeni said in a CNBC interview. "So I think they're where they want to be – and I think they're going to keep it here."

Persons: They're, —, Mohamed El, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, It's, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Doom, Roubini, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Mark Nash, Nash Organizations: Federal, Service, Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic, Fed, Erian, Allianz, CNBC's, JPMorgan, CNBC, Bloomberg, NYU Stern, Jupiter Asset Management

☆ Fed will keep rates at this level as stock market remains resilient, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will keep rates at this level as stock market remains resilient, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the market's reaction to changing Federal Reserve expectations, factors that have absorbed the pressures from higher interest rates and and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Famed economist David Rosenberg says home prices are set to fall further as buyers retreat to the sidelines and a hawkish Fed means stubbornly high mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

With mortgage rates unlikely to budge and incomes unlikely to grow, prices are due to drop. Housing affordability is calculated by accounting for three variables: home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics who said in the 2005 that a housing downturn would spark a recession, made the same argument in recent weeks. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but applications are still falling. This would send interest rates — and therefore mortgage rates, which trade closely with Treasury rates — higher, further hurting demand and affordability, Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi recently told Fortune.

☆ Why ChatGPT could spark a new bull market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Phil Rosen here, still poking around OpenAI's new ChatGPT iPhone app. The rise of ChatGPT and subsequent AI boom could solidify the recent strength in stocks as a new bull market, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. In a recent note, the strategist said equities' strong start to the year isn't just a bear market rally, but that it indeed marks a new bull regime. If the Fed mistakenly pauses and then resumes hiking as inflation persists, the music could stop for high flying AI stocks. Mega-cap tech stocks are "overbought" and their rally could stall out soon.

☆ A.I. tools could spark another 'roaring 20s' for the stock market, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA.I. tools could spark another 'roaring 20s' for the stock market, says Ed YardeniYardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni and Hightower’s Stephanie Link, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the A.I. rally and how the technology will impact the future.

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Ed Yardeni and Hightower’s Stephanie Link on Monday's market action
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Ed Yardeni and Hightower’s Stephanie Link on Monday's market actionYardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni and Hightower’s Stephanie Link, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the A.I. rally and how the technology will impact the future.

☆ Credit Suisse's chief US economist says home prices will likely fall another 5-10% — and that gridlock between buyers and sellers will prevent both appreciation and a larger crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Credit Suisse's Chief US Economist Ray Farris says home prices will see a 'long recession.' Rather, the market is likely to go through a sort of holding period, where activity stays low and prices neither boom nor bust. You can spread the housing market over many more locales in the US and that's what's happening." And the way I think of that, as a base case, it means that even as mortgage rates come down, the housing market doesn't recover rapidly. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner is one economist that — like Farris — doesn't expect a recession, and only sees prices falling another 4% this year.

☆ A chief economist who called the 2008 housing crisis says home prices are set to drop another 15% as falling mortgage rates and a recession will create a supply-demand imbalance
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This will drag 30-year mortgage rates — which track closely with 10-year Treasury rates because they typically have a lifespan of around 12 years — down to 6% or lower. One might argue that falling mortgage rates would also stimulate demand enough to meet the rise in supply, holding prices relatively steady. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but mortgage applications are still falling. Tight monetary policy and a pullback in lending will lead to a cooling labor market, he said, and that's bad for housing demand. Below is the National Association of Realtors' Housing Affordability Index, which takes into account incomes, home prices, and mortgage rates.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Recession worries simmer beneath US stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - Economically sensitive areas of the U.S. stock market are flashing warnings over growth, even as major equity indexes edge higher. Beneath the surface, however, areas of the market tied to economic sentiment such as transports, semiconductors and small-cap stocks dropped in April, while so-called defensive sectors are outperforming. “People are starting to more defensively position themselves,” said Aaron Dunn, co-head of the value equity team at Eaton Vance. "They are talking about demand being down and they are ridiculously important shipping companies,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stock ETFs are seeing accelerated inflows even as grimmer Wall Street predictions warn of a bear market ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stock ETFs pulled in more than $12.6 billion in April, according to data from Bloomberg. It's the largest inflow into such funds since January and more than double the pace seen in February and March. Investors are pouring large amounts into equity ETFs even as Wall Street predictions warn of a bear market ahead. Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni wrote: "In late October, we concluded that sentiment was so bearish it had to be bullish." Then, the current bull market is likely to resume, in our opinion," according to the Yardeni Research founder.

☆ Stocks are unlikely to retest bear market lows and there's too much pessimism about the US economy, market veteran Ed Yardeni says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's too much pessimism about the US economy, says Ed Yardeni at Yardeni Research. He told CNBC that investors may have missed out if they ditched stocks after Jamie Dimon sounded alarms about an economic "hurricane". The S&P 500 has risen about 19% since hitting a bear-market low in October. Yardeni said a highlight of pessimism about the economy came from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon last June when he warned of an oncoming economic "hurricane." He noted the S&P 500 made a new low in June after Dimon's declaration, then in October, it moved 2% below that trough.

☆ Fed should pause at 5% rates until banking crisis fallout fades, says Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed should pause at 5% rates until banking crisis fallout fades, says Yardeni Research's Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's base case for a recession this year, if there's downside risk to the markets from the banking crisis and more.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets rallied because nothing broke yesterday
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For markets still reeling from the banking crisis, no news is good news. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Or perhaps it was precisely the lack of any significant event that cheered markets. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Nothing broke yesterday. Markets cheered
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

☆ US stocks rise as traders assess jobs data and bet bank crisis has faded
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks climbed on Thursday as traders mulled fresh jobs data and continued to move past concerns around the state of the banking sector following this month's string of bank failures. Applications for US unemployment benefits ticked higher last week, but have have stayed low, beneath 200,000, in what's still a robust labor market. Initial filings for unemployment insurance were 198,000 for the week ending on March 25, higher than estimates of 195,000. Following labor data, investors will be focused on personal consumption expenditures data on Friday. Legendary investor Ed Yardeni says US stocks could close this year 14% higher because the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes after the banking turmoil.

☆ The Nasdaq just entered a bull market as the Fed fuels tech stocks toward their 2nd-best quarter in a decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Nasdaq 100 entered a bull market on Wednesday, rallying more than 20% from its December low. The Nasdaq has gained 17% in the first three months of 2023, with a few days left in the first quarter. The last time the Nasdaq 100 entered a bull market was in April 2020, a quarter that also marked the best stretch in the last decade. Signs of financial stress historically have prompted investors to buy more stocks, according to a Thursday note from DataTrek Research. DataTrek highlighted that the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress index reading is currently in the same ballpark as it was in July and August of 2002, as well as October 2011 — two similar periods of financial stress.

☆ US stocks could end this year 14% higher because banking turmoil will trigger a Fed pause, veteran investor Ed Yardeni says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 could hit 4,600 points by the end of this year, according to Ed Yardeni. The veteran investor turmoil in the US banking sector to lead to the Federal Reserve pausing its rate hikes. "This banking crisis is going to be very well-contained," the veteran investor told CNBC on Wednesday. "And at the same time, I think it's going to keep the Fed from raising interest rates even further," he said. "We saw that last year with the meme stocks, with the SPACs, with the Ark stocks," he added.

☆ The bull vs. bear case for the economy and Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bull vs. bear case for the economy and FedGreg Branch, Veritas Financial Group managing partner, and Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, join 'Closing Bell' to offer the bull-bear debate for the economy.

☆ Ed Yardeni says the S&P 500 can rally by double digits to end the year at 4,600
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Market veteran Ed Yardeni believes the S & P 500 can still earn a double-digit gain this year despite the banking crisis as well as fears of a hard landing. And at the same time, I think it's going to keep the Fed from raising interest rates even further," Yardeni said on CNBC's " Closing Bell " Wednesday. Yardeni said he doesn't think the Fed will cut rates this year. "I think they are currently now in a restrictive enough level where they don't have to keep raising interest rates," he said. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 The president of Yardeni Research set his S & P 500 year-end target at 4,600, which would translate into a roughly 20% gain for the year and a 14% rally from Wednesday's close of 4,027.81.

☆ A senior economist at Interactive Brokers shares why home prices across the country will fall another 11% over the next year — and why a 2008-size crash he had expected won't come after all
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres says home prices will drop 15% peak-to-trough. The weakening in the housing market will continue into Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024, according to José Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers. Affordability is measured by home prices and mortgage rates relative to incomes. Yardeni ResearchTorres thinks affordability will stay at relatively depressed levels in the months ahead because he sees mortgage rates staying high. As for mortgage rates, consensus among firms like Goldman Sachs, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody's, and others is that 30-year rates will remain above 5%.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Veritas' Greg Branch and Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Veritas' Greg Branch and Yardeni Research's Ed YardeniGreg Branch, Veritas Financial Group managing partner, and Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, join 'Closing Bell' to offer the bull-bear debate for the economy.

☆ Recessions, bank failures, and stagnant stock returns - experts see a new, difficult era dawning for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street experts see a new era ahead for markets, marked by a more difficult investing environment. Central bankers have already raised interest rates over 1,700% over the last year to quell high prices. Despite the volatility in bank stocks, Fed officials raised interest rates another 25 basis-points this week, bringing the effective Fed funds rate to 4.75-5%. That's the highest interest rates have been since 2007, and the impact of SVB's collapse is likely equivalent to another 50-75 basis points in rate hikes, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi estimated, meaning real interest rates are even more restrictive. Some experts have argued that SVB's collapse was due to the bank's uniquely high exposure to bonds, which have been weighed down heavily by rising interest rates.

☆ Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni says the U.S. has been in a 'rolling recession'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWall Street veteran Ed Yardeni says the U.S. has been in a 'rolling recession'Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research says the U.S. Federal Reserve has "done enough" and no longer needs to raise interest rates.

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