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☆ These 2 market indicators with perfect track records since 1984 are flashing a Harris presidency — but they could be wrong this time
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-29 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500's positive performance this year means that a Harris victory is likely, history says. The S&P 500 has gained 10% since August 5, and if it keeps going up, a Harris victory seems imminent. Likewise, the so-called Misery Index is flashing a Harris victory. If the stock market declines, the outlook for a Harris victory could quickly sour. While these indicators might be flashing a Harris victory for now, nothing's set in stone leading up to this election.

Persons: Harris, —, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, it's, Jerome Powell, Lynch, nothing's Organizations: Service, Comerica Wealth Management, Federal

☆ The Fed slashed interest rates last week, but Treasury yields are rising. What’s going on?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +6 min

The Treasury market, though, hasn’t been paying attention. Officials penciled in another 50 basis points in reductions by the end of the year and another 100 by the end of 2025. That sentiment is evident in the “breakeven” inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. Taken together, the various dynamics in the Treasury market are making it a difficult time for investors.

Persons: hasn’t, ”, Jonathan Duensing, — haven’t, “, Robert Tipp, We’re, Jerome, Powell, ” Duensing, Tom Garretson, “ They’d, There’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation, RBC Wealth Management

☆ China's surprise stimulus could be a red flag, so investors should approach the nation's long-awaited rally with caution
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

AdvertisementLorraine Tan, Morningstar's director of equity research for Asia, also thinks monetary stimulus won't be sufficient. History says their skepticism is warranted, as China's past stimulus efforts have often failed to lead to sustainable gains. Even if this surge holds up, it won't necessarily spark a self-fulfilling prophecy that provides a lasting boost for China's economy. But others like Tan from Morningstar believe this bad news is reflected in Chinese stocks' cheap valuations. The team at UBS Global Wealth Management is also cautiously optimistic about Chinese stocks after this news.

Persons: —, they're, Betty Wang, Marcelli, Lorraine Tan, Tan, Brian Mulberry, Mulberry, Wang, China isn't, Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Donald Trump, Rory Green, Xi Jinping, Biden, Trump, That's, Kleintop, Morningstar, she'd Organizations: Service, Business, People's Bank of, Oxford Economics, UBS Global Wealth Management, Zacks Investment Management, Federal Reserve, BI Locations: China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Central, Republic

☆ Veteran investor Dietze names the sectors — and stocks — he likes right now
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Amala Balakrishner | In Amala-Balakrishner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Favorable valuations Small-cap stocks are one area Dietze is watching closely, given that they are trading at a "discount." Interest in small-cap stocks picked up in July and while the outlook has been mixed, he likes that "valuations are favorable" right now. Emerging markets Another popular segment Dietze is focusing on is emerging markets, thanks to the potential from their rapidly growing population numbers. Countries classified as emerging markets include China, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Brazil. Year-to-date, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 0.56%.

Persons: Dow Jones, David Dietze, CNBC's, Dietze's, Russell, Jerome, Dietze, Hershey, —, Jesse Pound Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, mull, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, CNBC, Myers Squibb, BHP Group Locations: U.S ., U.S, China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil, Bristol

☆ A china stock poised for a breakout amid this stimulus rally, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Chinese central bank unrolled the most significant stimulus program since the COVID-19 pandemic and Chinese equities are starting to show signs that the long history of underperformance relative to western equities could possibly be on borrowed time. The name that has already demonstrated leadership that we want to focus on should this move into Chinese names continues is Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) . Before we get further into the company specifics it's important to reiterate that Chinese equities have under-performed U.S. equities since 2007. The goal of the program according to Chinese officials is to return the economy to a 5% growth rate. Turning to the focus company Tencent Holdings (TCHEY) is a multinational technology conglomerate listed on the Hong Kong exchange since 2004.

Persons: TCHEY, Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Tencent Holdings, People's Bank of China, Hong, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: China, Hong Kong

☆ How we're thinking about 7 portfolio stocks with ties to OpenAI after its latest shakeup
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

We're taking a keen interest because several stocks in the Club portfolio have ties to the startup behind ChatGPT. Co-founder Ilya Sutskever, who had been chief scientist, also left earlier this year and launched a new AI startup. Microsoft Microsoft got the first-mover advantage among big tech firms because of its early investment in OpenAI. As of now, we still haven't heard much about Lilly's exact plan to utilize OpenAI's technology. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman speaks during the Microsoft Build conference at Microsoft headquarters in Redmond, Washington, on May 21, 2024.

Persons: OpenAI, Sam Altman's, There's, Mira Murati, she's, Bob McGrew, Barret Zoph, Altman, Ilya Sutskever, it's, here's, ChatGPT, Jim Cramer, Jim, That's, —, OpenAI's, Jensen Huang, Nikesh Arora, Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Eli Lilly Eli Lilly, Eli Lilly's, Einstein, Marc Benioff, Jim Cramer's, Sam Altman, Jason Redmond Organizations: Club, Microsoft, Nvidia, Reuters, CNBC, Apple Intelligence, Apple, Bloomberg News, Street, Microsoft Microsoft, Blackwell, Palo, Palo Alto Networks, Employees, OpenAI, Barclays, Jim Cramer's Charitable, AFP, Getty Locations: OpenAI, Redmond, Washington, Palo Alto, Redmond , Washington

☆ PBOC's mortgage cut could 'really save' China's real estate, says UOB
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPBOC's mortgage rate cut is a measure that could 'really save' China's real estate, says UOBQi Wang, CIO, wealth management at UOB Kay Hian, discusses "two concerns" he has about the Chinese market and the recent slate of measures from the People's Bank of China.

Persons: Qi Wang, UOB Kay Hian Organizations: People's Bank of China

☆ Fed's inflation fight may be a bigger battle than we thought, says Morgan Stanley's Jim Lacamp
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's inflation fight may be a bigger battle than we thought, says Morgan Stanley's Jim LacampJim Lacamp, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management senior portfolio manager, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the market's fundamentals, what Lacamp is telling clients about equities, and if it was wrong for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by half a percentage point.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's Jim Lacamp Jim Lacamp, Morgan Organizations: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Federal Reserve

☆ About 45% of Americans will run out of money in retirement, including those who invested and diversified. Here are the 4 biggest mistakes being made.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. According to a simulated model that factors in things like changes in health, nursing home costs, and demographics, about 45% of Americans who leave the workforce at 65 are likely to run out of money during retirement. When you have more leisure time on your hands, more money goes toward entertainment and travel, especially in the first few years of retirement. The outcome is a higher withdrawal rate, which can push you into a higher tax bracket, he noted. "People don't take into account how expensive things get over time, not realizing that they can live another 40 years in retirement.

Persons: —, Spencer Look, they're, JoePat Roop, Roop, Bob, would've, it'll, Gil Baumgarten, Baumgarten, it's Organizations: Service, Morningstar's Center for Retirement, Business, Belmont Capital Advisors, IRA, IRS, Wealth Management Locations: breakeven

☆ Market headed for first winning September in 5 years, but don't get too comfortable
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

In fact, the S & P 500 is on pace for a winning September — its first since 2019 — with a gain of more than 1%. The month is typically the worst stretch of the year on average for all three major averages and the Russell 2000, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Some of September's strength could be attributed to the Federal Reserve's supersized rate cut last week . The S & P 500 notched a fresh record close on Monday and an intraday all-time high on Tuesday. The benchmark S & P 500 typically pulls back nearly 1% on average in October in election years, per the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Persons: —, Russell, Gary Pzegeo Organizations: Federal, CIBC Private Wealth Management

☆ Zentner: If the economy does better than expected... you have to have yields come up.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailZentner: If the economy does better than expected... you have to have yields come up. Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discusses the current economic landscape and the implications of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Persons: Ellen Zentner Organizations: Global, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

☆ Seeing no US recession as equity market rally broadens out: CIO
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSeeing no US recession as equity market rally broadens out: CIOPrashant Bhayani of BNP Paribas Wealth Management says U.S data paints a mixed picture but do not signal a recession, as equity markets continue to rally and credit spreads remain tight.

Persons: Prashant Bhayani Organizations: BNP, Wealth Management

☆ Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalation: Oil market remains 'complacent,' analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIsrael-Hezbollah conflict escalation: Oil market remains 'complacent,' analyst saysGiovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Wealth Management, says the "biggest risk" is if Iran gets involved and Iranian supply is disrupted.

Persons: Giovanni Staunovo Organizations: Israel, UBS Wealth Management Locations: Iran

☆ Here's where to invest $1 million, according to the pros
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

If you had as much as a spare $1 million to invest right now, what should you buy? Balanced-to-medium risk profile With as much as $1 million to invest with, investors can buy individual securities instead of being restricted to funds, said David Dietze, managing principal and senior portfolio strategist at Peapack Private Wealth Management. "A much smaller amount leaves an investor forced to invest in funds to get adequate diversification. With one million, one could say invest $20K in fifty different stocks and be well diversified," he said. More aggressive risk profile Gambles says that taking on a more aggressive stance would mean an "all in commitment" on the themes he expects will perform, and removing any hedges against those trades.

Persons: Paul Gambles, David Dietze, Dietze, Bristol Myers, Gambles Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, Family, Yen, Wealth Management, Bristol, BHP Group, Hershey, BHP Locations: China, Australian

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Greenwich Wealth's Vahan Janjigian and Allspring Global's Margaret Patel
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Greenwich Wealth's Vahan Janjigian and Allspring Global's Margaret PatelVahan Janjigian, chief investment officer at Greenwich Wealth Management, and Margaret Patel, senior portfolio manager for multi-asset solutions at Allspring Global Investments, join 'The Exchange' to discuss slowdown strategies for stocks, the future of interest rates, and more.

Persons: Allspring Global's Margaret Patel Vahan Janjigian, Margaret Patel Organizations: Greenwich, Greenwich Wealth Management, Allspring Global Investments

☆ Strong earnings in Q3 could provide a tailwind for equities, says Regions Wealth's Alan McKnight
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrong earnings in Q3 could provide a tailwind for equities, says Regions Wealth's Alan McKnightAlan McKnight, Regions Wealth Management CIO, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss how much risk is appropriate to undertake, what early company announcements mean for the earnings season ahead, and McKnight's thoughts on the international market picture.

Persons: Wealth's Alan McKnight Alan McKnight Organizations: Wealth Management

☆ Long-term interest rates could rise despite the Fed's cut, says Greenwich Wealth's Vahan Janjigian
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLong-term interest rates could rise despite the Fed's cut, says Greenwich Wealth's Vahan JanjigianVahan Janjigian, Chief Investment Officer at Greenwich Wealth Management, and Margaret Patel, Senior Portfolio Manager for multi-asset solutions at Allspring Global Investments, join 'The Exchange' to discuss slowdown strategies for stocks, the future of interest rates, and more.

Persons: Janjigian, Margaret Patel Organizations: Greenwich Wealth Management, Allspring Global Investments Locations: Greenwich

☆ Morgan Stanley’s Sherry Paul on navigating the markets after the Fed's rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley’s Sherry Paul on navigating the markets after the Fed's rate cutSherry Paul, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management managing director, joins ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss Morgan Stanley's rate cut playbook, recession fears, and more.

Persons: Morgan Stanley’s Sherry Paul, Sherry Paul, Morgan Stanley, Bell, Morgan Organizations: Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management

☆ Volatility looms as election season heats up. Fortify your portfolio against autumn market shocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Recalibrate for risk Protecting your portfolio from sharp losses begins with understanding your comfort with risk and ensuring that your asset allocation reflects your long-term goals. "But over that period when markets were down, there were opportunities to harvest losses in stocks, individual names that experienced big pullbacks." And they've been a good buy for clients who are nearing retirement, seeking income and appreciate bonds' ability to offset stocks' volatility. Options for buffering losses Options are also playing a role in investors' portfolios as financial advisors try to mitigate volatility. Call options give investors the right to buy a stock at a specified strike price before a certain date.

Persons: Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Arun Prakash, Prakash's, Rafia Hasan, San, Hasan, they've, Andrew Herzog, We're, Herzog, he's, Gregory Guenther, Morningstar, " Guenther Organizations: Federal, Wealth Management, Fed, Treasury Bond ETF, SEC, GrantVest Financial Locations: San Francisco, Plano , Texas, Matawan , New Jersey

☆ Your taxes are going up in 2026, according to Morgan Stanley. Here are 5 tax-advantaged trades to make.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewMorgan Stanley has some disappointing news for investors: your taxes are probably going up in the next few years. But one strategist at Morgan Stanley says it's not that simple. Despite these differences, Morgan Stanley expects tax rates to increase no matter who takes office. And a divided Congress, which Morgan Stanley predicts is very likely in November, will only further reduce the likelihood of dramatic change. Typically, the stock market is more influenced by the business cycle than tax policy or political party, according to Morgan Stanley.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Trump, Kamala Harris, it's, Monica Guerra, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's, Harris, Biden, There's, haven't, Guerra isn't, Guerra Organizations: Service, Business, Morgan Stanley Wealth, US, Trump, Republican, Democratic, Treasurys, New, Equity Locations: New York City

☆ Rate cuts are good for dividend stocks. Here's where we stand on our 5 biggest payers
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

We have a handful of them in the Club's portfolio, led by Best Buy . The five Club stocks with the biggest dividend yields fit the bill: Best Buy, Morgan Stanley , Coterra Energy , Stanley Black & Decker and Wells Fargo . Best Buy, Stanley Black & Decker and Wells Fargo are the best positioned of the five top-yielding Club stocks. "Morgan Stanley is now in no man's land: Too low to sell, too high to buy," Jim said. Customers look at appliances for sale at a Best Buy store in Miami, Florida, Oct. 8, 2021.

Persons: we're, Morgan Stanley, Stanley Black, Decker, Wells, Wells Fargo, Jim Cramer, Jim, Charlie Scharf, Coterra, it's, Jim Cramer's, Joe Raedle Organizations: Best, Coterra Energy, BBY, JPMorgan, Texas, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Getty Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Miami , Florida

☆ The 3 policy issues portfolio managers are most concerned about this election season — including one that wasn't discussed during the debate
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewFor Wall Street, policy — not politics — is the motto leading up to November. Death and taxesUnsurprisingly, tax policy is at the top of money managers' minds, according to Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at DWS. The filibusterThere's an under-the-radar issue keeping portfolio managers up at night: the elimination of the filibuster, according to Kelly's conversations with clients. Wall Street analysts expect a very close election, and even a minute change could be enough to push the needle on the outcome for either candidate. Given how important gridlock is to the market, there's not enough conversation around the impacts of eliminating the filibuster, Kelly believes.

Persons: —, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, DWS, Frank Kelly, Harris, Trump, David Bianco, Bianco, Goldman Sachs, Chuck Schumer, Kelly, Monica Guerra, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's, it's, Jack Ablin, Washington doesn't Organizations: Service, Asset Management, Business, Trump, Jobs, DWS, Wall Street, Morgan Stanley Wealth, Cresset Capital Management, White, Washington, Democrats, Republicans Locations: DWS Americas

☆ Yen carry trade unwind is not done yet, says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYen carry trade unwind is not done yet, says strategistFrancis Tan of CA Indosuez Wealth Management says the the yen is still undervalued versus the U.S. dollar, adding that he sees more room for further appreciation of the Japanese currency.

Persons: Francis Tan of Organizations: Francis Tan of CA Indosuez Wealth Management, U.S . Locations: Francis Tan of CA

☆ Fed's messaging will be more important than the size of its rate cut, StanChart says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's messaging will be more important than the size of its rate cut, StanChart saysManpreet Gill, Chief Investment Officer at Standard Chartered Wealth Management, says there could be "a bit of backpedaling in terms of what's priced."

Persons: StanChart, Manpreet Gill Organizations: Chartered Wealth Management

☆ Stock market today: Indexes edge up ahead of major Fed interest rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US indexes edged higher as investors waited for a likely interest rate cut from the Fed. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Wednesday as traders readied for what's likely to be the Federal Reserves's first rate cut in four years. "Though consensus is leaning toward a 50 basis point move, we look for the Fed to cut by 25 basis points today. AdvertisementFollowing the interest rate decision, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will deliver prepared remarks during a press conference. "While the market has usually bounced immediately following the 2 PM rate decision, the sell-off usually starts at or near the end of Powell's post-FOMC press conference."

Persons: Jerome Powell's, —, John Lynch, José Torres, Jerome Powell, Powell, shouldn't Organizations: Fed, Traders, Service, Federal, Comerica Wealth Management, Interactive, Deutsche Bank, Investment

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