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☆ Here are stocks to own to take the debt ceiling, bond market out of your investing equation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +18 min

Are the travails of the bond market, like Macbeth expounds, a "tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing?" The billionaire class — so incorrectly sought after by the media — so often seems to use the bond market as a sort of intellectual cudgel. That's why I always start my discussion on bonds with the simple query of "where are the layoffs, not forget about stocks, think fixed income." Here the bond market polices only those companies that haven't pivoted to making a profit. They, among all sectors, could be pummeled by the bond market freeze and by the consumers' paralysis.

☆ What the Markets Are Saying About the Risk of a Debt Default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

First, the markets believe there is a real risk of a default in early June. Second, the possibility of a protracted failure of the United States to pay its bills is seen as extremely low. The markets will supply the United States government with all the money it needs, if only Congress grants the authorization to borrow it. Demand for Treasuries is robust and is likely to remain so, as long as the credit of the United States is unimpaired. But a U.S. debt default could change all of that, and another downgrading of U.S. debt, as was the case in 2011 when the United States came close to default, could increase U.S. borrowing costs.

☆ How to protect your investments in the debt ceiling standoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

But even if that’s the case, between now and then bond investors should expect volatility. Bond investors are all about pricing in the risk that they may not be paid back on debt they buy — either on time or at all. But the lack of a deal to raise lawmakers’ self-imposed debt ceiling so close to the X-date is introducing unwanted risk into each investor’s calculus. “We’ve already seen some pricing stress around short-term bills, Treasury bills, and a little bit of change in the… sovereign credit default swap spreads,” said Gary Gensler, chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, at an event on Monday. Right now, yields on one-month T bills are well above the yields for 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds.

☆ Bitcoin gets vote of confidence as a long-term store of value as Tether says it will buy more of the crypto to back its stablecoin
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bitcoin got a vote of confidence as a long-term store of value with Tether's new investment strategy. The issuer of the USDT stablecoin will allocate up to 15% of its net realized operating profits to buying bitcoin. Last week, Tether revealed that it held $1.5 billion of bitcoin in its reserves at the end of March. "Bitcoin has continually proven its resilience and has emerged as a long-term store of value with substantial growth potential," said Tether Chief Technology Officer Paolo Ardoino in a statement. Last week, Tether posted a first-quarter "attestation" that revealed it held $1.5 billion of bitcoin in its reserves at the end of March as well as $3.4 billion of gold.

☆ Tether buys $222 million worth of bitcoin to back its USDT stablecoin
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ryan Browne | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Cryptocurrency giant Tether on Wednesday said that it's going to purchase hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of bitcoin to back the world's largest stablecoin. The company said it would invest 15% of its net profit into bitcoin to "diversify" the reserves that back its USDT token, which aims to stick to a 1-to-1 peg to the U.S. dollar. That would amount to roughly $222 million, based on the company's last attestation report, which provides a breakdown of the assets that make up its USDT reserves. Tether began revealing it was making gains from its USDT operation in February, declaring a net profit of $1.48 billion in March and taking its total excess USDT reserves to $2.44 billion. USDT is the largest stablecoin in the market, with a circulating supply of more than $82.8 billion, according to CoinGecko data.

☆ African Devt Bank proposes 'fast track' compensation for Zimbabwe white ex-farmers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Nyasha Chingono | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HARARE, May 15 (Reuters) - The African Development Bank (AFDB) has developed financial instruments to "fast track and front load" $3.5 billion in compensation to white farmers whose land was taken from them by Zimbabwe's government, the bank's president said on Monday. Zimbabwe agreed in 2020 to compensate local white farmers whose land was taken by the government from 2000 onwards to resettle Black families, in one of the most divisive policies of the Robert Mugabe era, while foreign white farmers were allowed to apply to get seized land back. Adesina said the new proposal to former white farmers would "help leverage the capital markets to fund the compensation without adding debt to Zimbabwe," without providing further details. Adesina said that 91% of Zimbabwe's multilateral debt and 61% of its bilateral debt is in arrears. "The government takes full ownership of the debt process and the implementation of reforms," Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube told the press conference.

☆ I quit Goldman Sachs after only a year. Here's how I knew leaving for a tech startup was the right career move.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Chris Hladczuk | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Chris Hladczuk leads growth at Meow, a fintech startup, after quitting Goldman Sachs. I picked a weird day to quit — it was my 24th birthday and I called my boss to tell her I was leaving Goldman Sachs. The power of Goldman SachsI love Goldman because it taught me how to win. With my future career in mind, is my pace of learning higher at Goldman in investment banking or at an early-stage startup? Chris Hladczuk currently leads growth at fintech startup Meow.

☆ The Debt Ceiling Dispute Raises the Risks for ‘Risk-Free’ U.S. Bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

The ImpassePresident Biden has begun discussing the debt ceiling with Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders without making much progress. As things stand, the Treasury says it will exhaust its trove of “extraordinary measures” and bump into the debt ceiling sometime in June. But if there is no resolution of the debt ceiling dispute until the last minute, a sharp decline in the stock market would not be surprising. But now, one-month Treasury bills due in June are being seen in the markets as potential trouble spots. In two or three months, the logic goes, the debt ceiling crisis will be behind us.

☆ Your brokerage is paying more for your idle cash. These firms are boosting rates, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Select brokerage firms are boosting the rates they pay on idle cash just sitting in retail investors' accounts. Vanguard recently boosted its cash sweep rate to 3.5% from 3.25%, Bank of America found, while Fidelity Investments is now offering a 2.6% rate on cash . LPL raised its cash sweep rate as much as 60 basis points for its wealthiest clients, BofA found. Subscribers to Robinhood Gold , a service that gives clients access to market research, offers a 4.65% interest rate on cash. Clients who don't participate in Robinhood Gold are eligible for a 1.5% rate on their idle cash.

☆ AMERICAS Debt cap tick-tock leaves eerie calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The issue dominated much of the G7 finance chiefs meeting in Japan. Dimon claimed any technical default could cause financial panic and JPMorgan had convened a 'war room' internally to deal with the issue. "It's very unfortunate, it's time-consuming, hopefully it won't happen, but it affects contracts, collateral, clearing houses, clients," Dimon said. Chinese stocks underperformed, with the G7 meeting mulling restrictions on investment to the world's second-biggest economy. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaksReuters GraphicsJobless claimsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Christina Fincher, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

In that instance, S&P Global Ratings credit rating agency downgraded the government from AAA to AA+ credit rating. The federal government maintains a perfect credit rating from Fitch and Moody’s, but that could change as the stalemate drags on. Investors care about stability and predictability, so a credit rating downgrade would send a chill down Wall Street’s spine. The broadest economic impact of a US debt default would be a recession that would encompass the global economy, including sharp job losses. And the housing market would not be spared by the “economic calamity” of a US government default, as Yellen once described it.

☆ Washington is at an impasse on the debt ceiling. Here’s what that might mean for your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Income-focused investors seeking yield and safety in Treasury bills are likely nervous as debt ceiling rhetoric heats up in Washington, but they should take a breather before they dump these assets. In the short-term Treasury market, investors are already showing some signs of anxiety. In that case, holders of short-term T-bills could see declines in their portfolio values as yields spike, he added. Review your holdings Now could be a good time to review your bond holdings, particularly the short-term T-bills that are seeing a big jump in yields. But the longer-term advice is to snap up longer-dated bonds to prepare for the day the Federal Reserve starts to dial back its tight monetary policy.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Hakeem Jeffries, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Kathy Jones, Gustavo Schwenkler, Jones, Thomas McLoughlin, McLoughlin, Christine Benz, Jamie Hopkins, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Santa Clara University Leavey School of Business, Federal Reserve, UBS, Morningstar, Carson Group Locations: Washington, D, U.S

Large-cap technology stocks, including Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), dipped about 0.4% each in premarket trading. ET, Dow e-minis were down 62 points, or 0.18%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 7.25 points, or 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 25.25 points, or 0.19%. PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) fell 2.5%, while Zions Bancorporation (ZION.O) and Western Alliance Bank (WAL.N) inched up 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. Oil and gas producer Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) fell 1.5% after its first-quarter earnings fell short of analysts' estimates. Airbnb Inc (ABNB.O) lost 13.5% as the vacation rental booking company saw fewer bookings and lower average daily rates in the second quarter.

☆ Biden, McCarthy divided over debt ceiling but talks continue
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Steve Holland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Biden, McCarthy and the three other top congressional leaders were set to meet again on Friday. And he did not rule out eventually invoking the 14th amendment to the U.S. Constitution, an untested approach that would seek to declare the debt limit unconstitutional. U.S. President Joe Biden hosts debt limit talks with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, May 9, 2023. Biden would agree to a separate discussion on the budget but not tied to the debt ceiling, the White House said. Stalemate in Washington over raising the U.S. debt limit raises the risk of fresh turmoil for markets.

The advisers said the standoff between Republicans and Democrats in Congress and the White House has already raised taxpayer borrowing costs through weak Treasury auctions and high yields for short-dated Treasury Bills, while ratings agencies are already publishing analyses of potential U.S. ratings downgrades. They said the Treasury market's role as the backbone of the entire financial system would be called into question, leaving the debt market without a benchmark pricing firm and causing investors to pull back from fixed-income and equity markets. Their letter was distributed after President Joe Biden met with Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy at the White House with no signs of softening their positions, though they agreed to continue talks. The advisers said that following the banking turmoil that started in March, the debate over raising the debt limit is "reckless and irresponsible." A protracted negotiation would have short-term costs, but a default is an "unthinkable" event, the executives said.

☆ The $31 trillion debt-ceiling fiasco could punish markets and it's complicating an already complex economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In any case, one outcome that many hold with a high degree of certainty is that financial markets are going to feel pain if the "x-date" bell tolls. This $31 trillion debt ceiling argument "comes at the worst possible time," according to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. "Many past instances of debt limit standoffs have been resolved without significant market fallout," the strategists wrote in a recent note. That's according to LPL chief global strategist Quincy Krosby — she says it boils down to these three reasons. With recession risks climbing, Bank of America analysts slashed their 2023 outlook for oil prices.

☆ Here's the best time to redeem Series I bonds to maximize your interest
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Meanwhile, annual inflation rose to 4.9% in April, the smallest jump in two years, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Wednesday. But after a series of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, alternatives like Treasury bills, certificates of deposit or money market accounts have emerged as competitive options for cash. "You lose that last three months of interest," said Ken Tumin, founder and editor of DepositAccounts.com. watch nowIf you're selling I bonds within five years, it's easy to get confused by how much interest you're giving up. (You can find the rate by purchase date here and rate change by purchase month here.)

☆ What the debt ceiling standoff means for money market funds
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But some investors worry about increased risk as the debt ceiling debate intensifies. Money market funds — which are different than money market deposit accounts — typically invest in lower-risk, short-term debt, such as Treasury bills, and may make sense for short-term investing goals. As a result, some of the biggest money market funds are paying nearly 5% or more as of May 9, according to Crane data. Investors worry funds may 'break the buck'As default concerns rise, investors fear money market funds may "break the buck," which happens when a fund's so-called net asset value, or total assets minus liabilities, falls below $1. Money market funds may provide an 'opportunity'Despite the looming debt ceiling, advisors are still recommending money market funds for cash.

☆ The dollar is at 'real risk' as the political deadlock over the US debt ceiling undermines investor confidence, Goldman Sachs' Beth Hammack says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The political deadlock over the US debt ceiling poses a 'real risk' to the dollar, according to Goldman Sachs' Beth Hammack. "There is real risk to the US dollar as we leave this in a more protracted state of negotiations," she told Bloomberg TV. The stalemate over the borrowing limit has heightened concerns that the US could end up defaulting on its debt. "And so I think that's really confusing - I think there is real risk to the US dollar as we leave this in a more protracted state of negotiations." Lawmakers have been sparring over the debt limit, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy recently proposing a bill that would lift the borrowing limit by $1.5 trillion while cutting spending by $4.5 trillion.

☆ Biden, McCarthy divided over debt ceiling but still talking
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Steve Holland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Biden called the meeting “productive” and reported that McCarthy said during the meeting that the U.S. would not default on its debt. U.S. President Joe Biden hosts debt limit talks with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, May 9, 2023. Biden would agree to a separate discussion on the budget but not tied to the debt ceiling, the White House said. Prices for short-term Treasury bills fell on Tuesday as investors sold off debt that could come due around the time the U.S. debt limit could be hit. Stalemate in Washington over raising the U.S. debt limit raises the risk of fresh turmoil for markets.

Biden, McCarthy and the other participants were expected to offer their own version of the meeting later on Tuesday. Past debt ceiling fights have typically ended with a hastily arranged agreement in the final hours of negotiations, thus avoiding a default. U.S. President Joe Biden hosts debt limit talks with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, May 9, 2023. Biden would agree to a separate discussion on the budget but not tied to the debt ceiling, the White House said. Stalemate in Washington over raising the U.S. debt limit raises the risk of fresh turmoil for markets.

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2023. Investors fear a government default as early as June 1 if Congress fails to resolve the deadlock. Our calculation shows she's not incorrect," said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA LLC in New York. "Treasury yields I would argue came down too much too soon." The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.168%.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - A gauge of global equities fell on Tuesday after weak Chinese trade data sparked concerns about China's domestic demand recovery, while the impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling sparked a sharp sell-off in short-dated Treasury bills. Investors fear a government default if Congress fails to resolve the debt ceiling deadlock as early as June 1. Longer-dated Treasury yields were little changed as investors waited for key U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.256%. Gold prices edged higher as some investors sought cover from economic uncertainty, including the debt ceiling deadlock.

Yields on U.S. short-dated Treasury bills , jumped sharply as investors sold off bonds, which mature as early as June. That weighed on shares of high-growth companies, including Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), which fell about 0.5% each. ET, Dow e-minis were down 82 points, or 0.24%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 15.25 points, or 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 73.25 points, or 0.55%. Chip-gear maker Skyworks Solutions Inc's (SWKS.O) shares tumbled 11.7% after forecasting current-quarter revenue and earnings below estimates. Shares of other Apple suppliers including Qualcomm (QCOM.O) and Qorvo (QRVO.O) fell 0.9% and 2.3%, respectively.

☆ Here's what the looming debt ceiling crisis means for your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Enes EvrenMany investors are bracing for the economic fallout of the deadline for the U.S. to raise the debt ceiling or default on its obligations. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said that failing to raise the debt ceiling will cause a "steep economic downturn" in the U.S., reiterating the country's early June deadline. Experts say the current crisis could differ from the 2011 debt standoff, which ultimately led to a U.S. credit downgrade and significant market turmoil. One of the big concerns is how the Treasury may prioritize principal and interest payments for assets like bills or bonds in an unprecedented default. Under the 2011 contingency plan, there wouldn't have been a default on Treasurys, according to an August 2011 Federal Open Market Committee conference call transcript.

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