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☆ Jefferies sees softer impact of Credit Suisse crisis on India
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 16 (Reuters) - India's banking sector will likely have a softer impact from the troubles at Credit Suisse (CSGN.S), given the Swiss lender's relatively small presence in the country, equity analysts at Jefferies said on Thursday. Credit Suisse has a 1.5% share among foreign banks' assets in India and a 'small' 0.1% share of overall banking assets in the country, Jefferies estimated. It has only 1 branch in India and total assets of over 200 billion rupees ($2.42 billion), it said. "Given the relevance of Credit Suisse to India's banking sector, we see softer adjustments in assessment of counter-party risks, especially in the derivative market," analysts Prakhar Sharma and Vinayak Agarwal said in a note. This may also lead to institutional deposits moving more towards larger or quality banks, Jefferies said.

One of the government officials directly involved in the matter said New Delhi is "not comfortable" with foreign trade settled in yuan but said settlement in "dirham is okay." The second official said that India cannot allow settlement in yuan till the relations between the two countries improve. The five officials did not say whether there were also economic reasons behind India's reluctance to accept yuan settlement. Two banking officials, aware of the matter, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not keen on foreign trade settlement in yuan, and confirmed that the government has discouraged them from using the currency. They also said Russia was keen on yuan settlement as it helps them in purchases of goods from China.

☆ India's 1-yr, 10-yr yield curve briefly inverts for first time in nearly eight years
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Dharamraj Dhutia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The 1-year bond yield, that trades close to the 364-day treasury bill yield, briefly rose to 7.4750% earlier in the day, while the 10-year benchmark 7.26% 2032 bond yield was at 7.4728%. The 1-year note last traded above the 10-year bond in May 2015, according to Refinitiv data. The 1-year yield eased to 7.43%, while the 10-year benchmark was at 7.46% as of 4:20 p.m. IST. On Feb. 28, Reuters reported that India's bond yield curve is likely to invert on the back of worsening liquidity deficit in India's banking system and bets of continued rate hikes. Reuters GraphicsThe benchmark 2032 bond yield has risen only 12 bps during the same period, leading to spread compression and ultimately inversion.

☆ India's money laundering rules to apply to crypto trade - gov't notification
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, March 8 (Reuters) - India's money laundering laws will apply to trade in cryptocurrencies, the federal government said in a notification dated March 7. The exchange between virtual digital assets and fiat currencies, the exchange between one or more forms of virtual digital assets and the transfer of digital assets will be covered under money laundering laws, the notification said. The safekeeping or administration of virtual digital assets and the participation in financial services related to the offer and sale of virtual digital assets will also be covered, the notification added. The Reserve Bank of India has said that cryptocurrencies should be banned as they are akin to a Ponzi scheme. Extending India's money laundering rules to cryptocurrencies will give authorities greater authority in monitoring the transfer of these assets beyond the country's borders.

Summary Poll dataBENGALURU, March 7 (Reuters) - India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates and a weak global economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who have barely changed their forecasts from three months ago. Defying a global trend of falling housing prices as mortgage rates rise and crimp affordability, India has exhibited resilience and is emerging from a decade-long downturn due to strong demand. A major source of employment in a country of 1.4 billion people where a majority are unskilled, the Indian housing market is likely to remain a stable contributor to economic activity in Asia's third-largest economy. A recent increase in unemployment also raises concerns about the sustainability of the current housing market trend. "Amid rising prices, affordability will only worsen in the coming quarters.

☆ India cenbank imposes penalty on Amazon Pay for non-compliance
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

BENGALURU, March 3 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India said on Friday it imposed a penalty of 30.7 million rupees ($374,770) on Amazon Pay Private Ltd for non-compliance with directions on prepaid payment instruments and Know Your Customer (KYC) rules. "This action is based on deficiencies in regulatory compliance and is not intended to pronounce upon the validity of any transaction or agreement entered into by the entity with its customers," the RBI said in a statement. Amazon Pay is an online payments processing service owned by Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O). ($1 = 81.9170 Indian rupees)Reporting by Chris Thomas in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Weak global demand, rate hikes may curtail India growth, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The slowdown in growth seen in last quarter of 2022 could continue and erode the 6.4% growth for the fiscal year through March 2024 estimated by the central bank, economists warned, ahead of the release of India's GDP data on Tuesday. The sharp fall in year-on-year growth rate is partly due to a fading of pandemic-induced base effect which had contributed towards higher growth figures in fiscal 2021/22, economists said. He expects the economy to grow at a weaker-than-consensus 4.3% year-on-year in the quarter through December 2022. At least two members of India's six-member monetary policy committee have called for a pause in rate hikes, citing rising global and local risks to growth. The central bank, however, remains focused on above-target inflation as high-frequency indicators suggests that stronger rural demand may help offset weaker urban consumption.

Summary Oct-Dec GDP at 4.4% vs 4.6% Reuters forecastOct-Dec manufacturing sector down 1.1%Govt maintains 7% growth for 2022/23Economists see slowing consumer demand, possible rate hikeFeb 27 (Reuters) - India's economic growth slowed further in the December quarter as pent up demand eased and weakness in the manufacturing sector continued. Asia's third largest economy recorded year-on-year growth of 4.4% in October-December, down from 6.3% in July-September, data released by the government on Tuesday showed. The sharp fall in the year-on-year growth rate is also partly due to a fading of pandemic-induced base effects and revision to last year's growth, economists said. "We are likely to hit the 7% GDP growth target for the year," said India's chief economic advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran at a press briefing. Government spending declined 0.8% year-on-year in the December quarter compared to revised 4.1% contraction in the previous quarter.

☆ India's push to regulate crypto gains IMF, U.S. support at G20
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationBENGALURU, Feb 25 (Reuters) - A push by Group of 20 (G20) president India to regulate cryptocurrencies gained support from both the International Monetary Fund and the United States on Saturday as finance chiefs of the bloc wrap up two-days of talks. "We haven't suggested outright banning of crypto activities, but it is critical to put in place a strong regulatory framework," Yellen said. Earlier, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters after co-chairing a meeting with Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman that banning crypto should be an option. The Reserve Bank of India has said that cryptocurrencies should be banned as they are akin to a Ponzi scheme. On Thursday, the IMF laid out a nine-point action plan for how countries should treat crypto assets, with point number one a plea not to give cryptocurrencies legal tender status.

☆ India's forex reserves at 11-week low, down for third week
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, Feb 24 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) fell for the third straight week to hit an eleven-week low of $561.27 billion as of the week ended Feb. 17, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statistical supplement showed on Friday. The reserves fell by $5.68 billion at the end of last week, data showed. The reserves stood at $566.95 billion in the week to Feb. 10, down $8.3 billion from the previous week. The RBI has said in the past that changes in reserves also stem from valuation gains or losses. Last week, the rupee fell 0.4% against the dollar, logging its fourth consecutive weekly decline, but outperformed its Asian peers.

☆ Bearish bets on Asian FX return on renewed woes over Fed rate hikes - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Tejaswi Marthi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/4] A Singapore dollar note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017. However, recent comments from the Fed about hiking rates for longer dampened sentiment. They turned bearish on the Thai baht , Asia's best-performing currency this year, the Singapore dollar and the Malaysian ringgit for the first time in three months. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):Reporting by Tejaswi Marthi in BengaluruOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Indian shares fall on rate-hike worries ahead of Fed, RBI minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Bharath Rajeswaran | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Nifty 50 index (.NSEI) was down 0.86% at 17,674.50, while the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) fell 0.85% at 60,150.93 as of 10:34 a.m. IST. Both the Fed and the Reserve Bank of India were due to release minutes of their latest policy meetings, giving investors a glimpse of their thinking on future rate-hike trajectories. "Fear of a hawkish Fed has gripped markets and kept investors on tenterhooks." Global markets fell after an unexpectedly strong reading of S&P Global's composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed that the U.S. economy was not cooling. ($1 = 82.8330 Indian rupees)Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman, Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Indian cenbank onshore, offshore intervention helps rupee outperform-traders
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] A security guard stands next to the logo of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, February 8, 2023. "Without the RBI, there is little doubt that the rupee would be significantly lower," a currency and rates trader at a Singapore-based hedge fund said. This trader and two others that Reuters spoke to did not want to be identified on account of their internal policies. "The RBI's offshore presence, alongside what it is doing onshore, is making speculators stay away from the rupee," a trader at a Mumbai-based private sector bank said. A trader at a second private sector bank said one of the largest public sector banks has been "on both sides" in the onshore market, making the rupee "fairly unresponsive".

☆ India, Singapore launch real-time link for cross-border payments
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Feb 21 (Reuters) - India and Singapore launched on Tuesday a real-time link to facilitate easier cross border money transfers between one of the world's biggest recipients of remittances and an Asian financial powerhouse. Transfers of funds will now be possible using just mobile phones due to the tie-up between India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and Singapore's PayNow facility. UPI is an instant real-time payments system, allowing users to transfer money across multiple banks without disclosing bank account details. To begin with, State Bank of India (SBI.NS), Indian Overseas Bank (IOBK.NS), Indian Bank (INBA.NS) and ICICI Bank (ICBK.NS) will facilitate both inward and outward remittances while Axis Bank (AXBK.NS) and DBS India will facilitate inward remittances, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in a statement. At the launch event, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that cross-border retail payments and remittances between India and Singapore currently amount to over $1 billion annually.

☆ India finance minister: RBI will take action as required to keep inflation within expected limits
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Feb 20 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India will take necessary steps to manage inflation within "expected limits,' Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday. "In emerging markets, the situation is unique to each of the countries. In that I think, RBI is watching the Indian economy and taking a call as and when it is required," Sitharaman said. Sitharaman was speaking in a post budget industry event in Jaipur. Reporting by Nikunj Ohri; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Indian tycoon Gautam Adani dismisses market volatility as 'temporary'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Art school teacher Sagar Kambli gives final touches to a painting of Indian businessman Gautam Adani (L) highlighting the ongoing crisis of the Adani group in Mumbai on February 3, 2023. Indranil Mukherjee | Afp | Getty ImagesIndian billionaire Gautam Adani has downplayed the recent market volatility of Adani Group's shares as "temporary." The Adani Group has denied those accusations, and said it was a "calculated attack on India." Adani flagship earningsOn Tuesday, Adani Enterprises reported a profit after tax of nearly $100 million for the October to December quarter. Shares of Adani Enterprises last traded about 3% higher Wednesday on National Stock Exchange of India.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Dollar pullback ahead of U.S. inflation data to lift rupee at open
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Feb 14 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was poised to open higher against the U.S. dollar, tracking a broad pullback on the currency in the lead-up to key U.S. inflation data due later on Tuesday. The non-deliverable forward market indicated an opening of around 82.60 for the rupee compared with 82.7175 in the previous session. Intraday position takers were not likely to chase the USD/INR pair lower at open, a spot trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. The overnight risk of the U.S. data and India's surprise on inflation would mean little follow-through after the open, he added. Asian currencies were mostly higher ahead of data that is expected to show that U.S. inflation had eased.

☆ Indian shares set to rise ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Indian shares are set to open higher on Tuesday, tracking the gains in global equities ahead of U.S. inflation data due later in the day, with a rise in domestic retail inflation in January above the Reserve Bank of India's upper threshold likely capping the move up. Wall Street equities closed higher on Monday, as investors expected consumer price index (CPI) data for January to ease. STOCKS TO WATCH** FSN E-Commerce Ventures (FSNE.NS): Co posts slide in consolidated net profit in Q3 on high expenses. ** Zee Entertainment (ZEE.NS): Co reports fall in consolidated net profit in third quarter on slide in ad spends and rise in costs. ** Steel Authority of India (SAIL.NS): Co reports fall in consolidated net profit in Q3** Power Finance Corporation (PWFC.NS): Co reports rise in consolidated net profit in Q3.

India's annual retail inflation rate (INCPIY=ECI) rose to 6.52% in January from 5.72% in December, government data showed on Monday. January's retail inflation was above the Reserve Bank of India's upper targeted limit of 6% for the first time since October and much higher than the 5.9% estimate, according to a Reuters poll of 44 analysts. Food price inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket, rose to 5.94% in January from 4.19% in December. STICKY CORE INFLATIONIndia's core inflation in January was nearly flat at 6.09% to 6.10% from last month, according to two economists. "We expect core inflation to remain elevated in Feb-March given the ongoing pass-through of higher input costs by producers," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA.

MUMBAI, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Indian government bond yields are expected to trend higher this week, as sentiment stays bearish, but debt as well as the local currency will track U.S. and India inflation data. India's headline retail inflation print is due on Monday, followed by U.S. retail inflation on Tuesday. Bond yields jumped after the RBI highlighted core inflation concerns, keeping the door open for another hike. The rupee will take its cues from the U.S. inflation print and its impact on the dollar index, a trader with a private bank said. For the week, the currency could move between 82.10 and 82.80 unless the U.S. inflation data is a big surprise, dealers said.

☆ G20 exploring cryptocurrency regulation, India's finance minister says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Nikunj Ohri | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Feb 11 (Reuters) - The Group of 20 (G20) big economies is exploring whether the group could collectively regulate cryptocurrencies, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday. Given the sophisticated technologies involved with these virtual assets, countries must discuss whether a given regulation is needed, said Sitharaman, whose country is this year's G20 president. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has for several years debated drafting a law to regulate or even ban cryptocurrencies but has not made a final decision. India will host G20 finance ministers and central bank governors this month. The Reserve Bank of India has said that cryptocurrencies should be banned as they are akin to a Ponzi scheme.

☆ Bullish bets on Asian FX ease as Fed rate-hike concerns weigh - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Himanshi Akhand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Long positions on the South Korean won , the Singapore dollar and the Indonesian rupiah eased, while market participants turned bearish on the Indian rupee , according to a fortnightly poll of 10 respondents. The dollar is currently hovering near a one-month high after blockbuster U.S. jobs data last Friday boost expectations that the Fed may continue to hike rates to tame inflation. Investors also scaled back long bets on China's yuan , to a near one-month low, the Malaysian ringgit as well as Asia's best-performing currency this year, the Thai baht . Meanwhile, investors turned slightly bearish on the Indian rupee as concerns over a rout in local equities filtered into money markets. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3.

The central bank said that its policy stance remains focused on the withdrawal of accommodation, with four out of six members voting in favour of that position. Reuters GraphicsThe monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising three members from the central bank and three external members, raised the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) to 6.50% in a split decision. We have to remain unwavering in our commitment to bring down CPI headline inflation," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, while announcing the committee’s decision. In a poll conducted ahead of the federal budget on Feb. 1, more than three-quarters of economists, 40 of 52, had expected the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 bps. Das said that the inflation-adjusted, real interest rate remains below the pre-pandemic levels and liquidity remains surplus, even though it is lower than during the pandemic.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell confesses 'This time it's different'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Any fear of a radical Fed rethink on the back of the jobs numbers seemed wide of the mark. "This cycle is different from other cycles...it has just confounded all sorts of attempts to predict," Powell admitted. And many think last week's jobs report should similarly be treated with care. They included a minimum tax for billionaires and a quadrupling of the tax on corporate stock buybacks. Brands, Eaton Corp, etcUS terminal rateReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Indian shares rise ahead of RBI policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Market participants will focus on the RBI's commentary on the future trajectory of rate hikes, liquidity, the country's economic outlook and whether the central bank changes its stance from "withdrawal of accommodation" to "neutral." The RBI had raised key lending rate by 35 basis points in December, after three straight 50 bps hikes, and had said its fight against inflation was not over yet. Fed's Powell said on Tuesday disinflation has started and that he expects significant declines in inflation this year, raising hopes of less aggressive rate hikes in the future. Wall Street closed higher overnight, while MSCI's gauge of the broader index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was up 0.75%. Reporting by Rama Venkat in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Eileen SorengOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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