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☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee to weaken as oil prices jump on unexpected OPEC+ output cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, April 3 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open lower versus the U.S. dollar on Monday after a surprise production cut by OPEC+ fuelled a jump in oil prices. The non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.35-82.40 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.1650 in the previous session. A rise in oil prices directly affects the Indian economy and the rupee as the country imports about 83% of its oil requirements, said Anil Bhansali, head treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. According to estimates by some economists, a 10% hike in oil prices leads to an increase in India’s current account deficit by 0.3% to 0.5% of the GDP. Apart from oil prices, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy decision on Thursday and the U.S. jobs report on Friday will be key for the rupee this week.

REUTERS/Thomas White/IllustrationMUMBAI/NEW DELHI, April 3 (Reuters) - A surge in India's services exports, which hit a record high in the October-December quarter, is expected to shield the economy from external risks as a slowing global economy will likely weigh on the country's merchandise exports. Services exports will likely surpass goods exports by March 2025, he said. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsIT services still accounted for 45% of India's total services exports in April-December. EXTERNAL SHIELDThe continued rise in services exports is likely to help rein in India's current account deficit. There is room for further growth with India's share in world commercial services exports currently just at around 4%."

☆ Morning Bid: A holiday kickoff to the second quarter, and a US jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( Alden Bentley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Alden Bentley. Asia's data calendar across the rest of the week otherwise looks fairly tame and the main economic event for global markets will be U.S. payrolls data on Friday. So given the number of markets that are closed on, or before, Friday, the week could bring surprises of a pleasant, or not pleasant, variety. But any surprise headlines, be they OPEC or bank related, will have to be digested by thinned markets, which can bring excessive market swings. This week will bring CPI releases from Indonesia on Monday, South Korea on Tuesday and Thailand and the Philippines on Wednesday.

☆ India slashes current account deficit in Dec-qtr as trade gap narrows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, March 31 (Reuters) - India's current account deficit shrank more than expected in the October-December quarter on the back of a narrower goods trade deficit alongside robust services exports and remittances, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed on Friday. In absolute terms, the current account deficit (INCURA=ECI) was $18.2 billion in the third quarter of fiscal year 2022/23 compared with $22.2 billion last year. The goods trade deficit in the December quarter narrowed to $72.7 billion compared with $78.3 billion in the preceding quarter, the central bank said. The country's balance of payments (INBOP=ECI) recorded a surplus of $11.1 billion compared to a $0.5 billion surplus in the same quarter a year earlier. Reporting by Swati Bhat Additional reporting by Sudipto Ganguly; Editing by Frank Jack DanielOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India's April-September borrowing slightly above market expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Nikunj Ohri | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The planned April-September borrowing constitutes about 57.6% of the total 15.43 trillion rupees planned for the current fiscal year, the government said in a statement on Wednesday. Borrowing in the first six months is slightly above market expectations of about 55% of this year's target. The government said the borrowing will be done through bonds of three, five, seven, 10, 14, 30 and 40 years tenure. It plans to borrow between 310 billion and 390 billion rupees a week in the first half of the fiscal year. The government plans net borrowing of 1.42 trillion rupees in the quarter ending June 30, compared with 2.40 trillion rupees in the same period last year.

☆ RBI to raise rates once more on April 6 but leave door open for more - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A majority of economists in the March 23-28 Reuters poll also said the RBI would then keep the rate steady for the rest of the year. A majority of respondents, 20 of 36, said the central bank would maintain its withdrawal of accommodation stance at the April meeting. Until that is behind us, the RBI probably will not be very comfortable in signalling that they are done with rate hikes," said QuantEco's Kumar. In last month's poll, all economists said the bigger risk was it would be higher than they predicted. The Indian economy was forecast to grow 6.9% this fiscal year and then slow to 6.0% in the next.

NEW DELHI, March 27 (Reuters) - Indian banks must give defaulters an opportunity to be heard before they classify a loan account as fraud, the Supreme Court ruled on Monday. Banks cannot unilaterally declare an account as fraud without providing the defaulter the right to be heard, a top court bench led by Chief Justice DY Chandrachud said. However, there is no such requirement before registering a first information report (FIR) to declare a loan account as fraud, the bench observed. The apex court was examining judgements by the Telangana High Court and Gujarat High Court on the Reserve Bank of India (Frauds Classification and Reporting by Commercial Banks and Select Fls Directions 2016) master circular. Telangana High Court had ruled that not granting the right to be heard infringes on the borrowers' constitutional right.

LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) bondholders are seeking legal advice after the Swiss regulator ordered 16 billion Swiss francs ($17.5 billion) of Additional Tier-1 (AT1) debt to be wiped out under its rescue takeover by UBS (UBSG.S). Not only did bondholders expect protection, but UBS is paying $3.23 billion to Credit Suisse shareholders. One Paris-based manager of a debt fund that held Credit Suisse AT1s said he had been "spammed" with emails from lawyers. Facing any challenge could be Credit Suisse, its new owner UBS, Swiss regulator FINMA or the Swiss government. It also cited an emergency March 19 ordinance which it said authorised FINMA to instruct Credit Suisse to write off the bonds.

☆ Explainer: Why markets are in uproar over a risky bank bond known as AT1
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Here are some of the implications of the Credit Suisse AT1 bond write-down. WHAT IS AN AT1 BOND? Credit Suisse AT1 holders, therefore, are the only ones not to receive any kind of compensation. It is not the first time that the treatment of AT1 bonds in a bank overhaul has caused controversy. The decision to write down Credit Suisse AT1 bonds to zero is viewed as negative for the AT1 bond market globally.

☆ SVB Crisis Tests India’s New Finance Hub Potential
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Many Indian startups rushed this week to open new bank accounts in India’s Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, known as GIFT city. The swift collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has cast an aspiring Indian finance center into sudden relief. India, which has long been a bit player in global finance, has a chance to boost its role—but only if it moves swiftly to rectify some regulatory barriers. This week, many Indian startups rushed to open new bank accounts in India’s Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, known as GIFT city, once they regained access to their SVB deposits. Accounts set up within the hub’s International Financial Services Center, or IFSC, are free of India’s stringent capital controls since the funds are held in U.S. dollars.

☆ Fed's best option is to hike rates by 25 basis points and watch for a month and a half: Professor
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's best option is to hike rates by 25 basis points and watch for a month and a half: ProfessorRaghuram G Rajan of The University of Chicago Booth School, formerly governor of the Reserve Bank of India, says "doing zero would convey inappropriate signals at this point."

☆ Jefferies sees softer impact of Credit Suisse crisis on India
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 16 (Reuters) - India's banking sector will likely have a softer impact from the troubles at Credit Suisse (CSGN.S), given the Swiss lender's relatively small presence in the country, equity analysts at Jefferies said on Thursday. Credit Suisse has a 1.5% share among foreign banks' assets in India and a 'small' 0.1% share of overall banking assets in the country, Jefferies estimated. It has only 1 branch in India and total assets of over 200 billion rupees ($2.42 billion), it said. "Given the relevance of Credit Suisse to India's banking sector, we see softer adjustments in assessment of counter-party risks, especially in the derivative market," analysts Prakhar Sharma and Vinayak Agarwal said in a note. This may also lead to institutional deposits moving more towards larger or quality banks, Jefferies said.

One of the government officials directly involved in the matter said New Delhi is "not comfortable" with foreign trade settled in yuan but said settlement in "dirham is okay." The second official said that India cannot allow settlement in yuan till the relations between the two countries improve. The five officials did not say whether there were also economic reasons behind India's reluctance to accept yuan settlement. Two banking officials, aware of the matter, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not keen on foreign trade settlement in yuan, and confirmed that the government has discouraged them from using the currency. They also said Russia was keen on yuan settlement as it helps them in purchases of goods from China.

☆ India's 1-yr, 10-yr yield curve briefly inverts for first time in nearly eight years
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Dharamraj Dhutia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The 1-year bond yield, that trades close to the 364-day treasury bill yield, briefly rose to 7.4750% earlier in the day, while the 10-year benchmark 7.26% 2032 bond yield was at 7.4728%. The 1-year note last traded above the 10-year bond in May 2015, according to Refinitiv data. The 1-year yield eased to 7.43%, while the 10-year benchmark was at 7.46% as of 4:20 p.m. IST. On Feb. 28, Reuters reported that India's bond yield curve is likely to invert on the back of worsening liquidity deficit in India's banking system and bets of continued rate hikes. Reuters GraphicsThe benchmark 2032 bond yield has risen only 12 bps during the same period, leading to spread compression and ultimately inversion.

☆ India's money laundering rules to apply to crypto trade - gov't notification
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, March 8 (Reuters) - India's money laundering laws will apply to trade in cryptocurrencies, the federal government said in a notification dated March 7. The exchange between virtual digital assets and fiat currencies, the exchange between one or more forms of virtual digital assets and the transfer of digital assets will be covered under money laundering laws, the notification said. The safekeeping or administration of virtual digital assets and the participation in financial services related to the offer and sale of virtual digital assets will also be covered, the notification added. The Reserve Bank of India has said that cryptocurrencies should be banned as they are akin to a Ponzi scheme. Extending India's money laundering rules to cryptocurrencies will give authorities greater authority in monitoring the transfer of these assets beyond the country's borders.

Summary Poll dataBENGALURU, March 7 (Reuters) - India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates and a weak global economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who have barely changed their forecasts from three months ago. Defying a global trend of falling housing prices as mortgage rates rise and crimp affordability, India has exhibited resilience and is emerging from a decade-long downturn due to strong demand. A major source of employment in a country of 1.4 billion people where a majority are unskilled, the Indian housing market is likely to remain a stable contributor to economic activity in Asia's third-largest economy. A recent increase in unemployment also raises concerns about the sustainability of the current housing market trend. "Amid rising prices, affordability will only worsen in the coming quarters.

☆ India cenbank imposes penalty on Amazon Pay for non-compliance
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

BENGALURU, March 3 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India said on Friday it imposed a penalty of 30.7 million rupees ($374,770) on Amazon Pay Private Ltd for non-compliance with directions on prepaid payment instruments and Know Your Customer (KYC) rules. "This action is based on deficiencies in regulatory compliance and is not intended to pronounce upon the validity of any transaction or agreement entered into by the entity with its customers," the RBI said in a statement. Amazon Pay is an online payments processing service owned by Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O). ($1 = 81.9170 Indian rupees)Reporting by Chris Thomas in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Summary Oct-Dec GDP at 4.4% vs 4.6% Reuters forecastOct-Dec manufacturing sector down 1.1%Govt maintains 7% growth for 2022/23Economists see slowing consumer demand, possible rate hikeFeb 27 (Reuters) - India's economic growth slowed further in the December quarter as pent up demand eased and weakness in the manufacturing sector continued. Asia's third largest economy recorded year-on-year growth of 4.4% in October-December, down from 6.3% in July-September, data released by the government on Tuesday showed. The sharp fall in the year-on-year growth rate is also partly due to a fading of pandemic-induced base effects and revision to last year's growth, economists said. "We are likely to hit the 7% GDP growth target for the year," said India's chief economic advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran at a press briefing. Government spending declined 0.8% year-on-year in the December quarter compared to revised 4.1% contraction in the previous quarter.

☆ Weak global demand, rate hikes may curtail India growth, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The slowdown in growth seen in last quarter of 2022 could continue and erode the 6.4% growth for the fiscal year through March 2024 estimated by the central bank, economists warned, ahead of the release of India's GDP data on Tuesday. The sharp fall in year-on-year growth rate is partly due to a fading of pandemic-induced base effect which had contributed towards higher growth figures in fiscal 2021/22, economists said. He expects the economy to grow at a weaker-than-consensus 4.3% year-on-year in the quarter through December 2022. At least two members of India's six-member monetary policy committee have called for a pause in rate hikes, citing rising global and local risks to growth. The central bank, however, remains focused on above-target inflation as high-frequency indicators suggests that stronger rural demand may help offset weaker urban consumption.

☆ India's push to regulate crypto gains IMF, U.S. support at G20
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationBENGALURU, Feb 25 (Reuters) - A push by Group of 20 (G20) president India to regulate cryptocurrencies gained support from both the International Monetary Fund and the United States on Saturday as finance chiefs of the bloc wrap up two-days of talks. "We haven't suggested outright banning of crypto activities, but it is critical to put in place a strong regulatory framework," Yellen said. Earlier, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters after co-chairing a meeting with Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman that banning crypto should be an option. The Reserve Bank of India has said that cryptocurrencies should be banned as they are akin to a Ponzi scheme. On Thursday, the IMF laid out a nine-point action plan for how countries should treat crypto assets, with point number one a plea not to give cryptocurrencies legal tender status.

☆ India's forex reserves at 11-week low, down for third week
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, Feb 24 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) fell for the third straight week to hit an eleven-week low of $561.27 billion as of the week ended Feb. 17, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statistical supplement showed on Friday. The reserves fell by $5.68 billion at the end of last week, data showed. The reserves stood at $566.95 billion in the week to Feb. 10, down $8.3 billion from the previous week. The RBI has said in the past that changes in reserves also stem from valuation gains or losses. Last week, the rupee fell 0.4% against the dollar, logging its fourth consecutive weekly decline, but outperformed its Asian peers.

☆ Bearish bets on Asian FX return on renewed woes over Fed rate hikes - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Tejaswi Marthi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/4] A Singapore dollar note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017. However, recent comments from the Fed about hiking rates for longer dampened sentiment. They turned bearish on the Thai baht , Asia's best-performing currency this year, the Singapore dollar and the Malaysian ringgit for the first time in three months. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):Reporting by Tejaswi Marthi in BengaluruOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Indian shares fall on rate-hike worries ahead of Fed, RBI minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Bharath Rajeswaran | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Nifty 50 index (.NSEI) was down 0.86% at 17,674.50, while the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) fell 0.85% at 60,150.93 as of 10:34 a.m. IST. Both the Fed and the Reserve Bank of India were due to release minutes of their latest policy meetings, giving investors a glimpse of their thinking on future rate-hike trajectories. "Fear of a hawkish Fed has gripped markets and kept investors on tenterhooks." Global markets fell after an unexpectedly strong reading of S&P Global's composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed that the U.S. economy was not cooling. ($1 = 82.8330 Indian rupees)Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman, Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Indian cenbank onshore, offshore intervention helps rupee outperform-traders
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] A security guard stands next to the logo of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, February 8, 2023. "Without the RBI, there is little doubt that the rupee would be significantly lower," a currency and rates trader at a Singapore-based hedge fund said. This trader and two others that Reuters spoke to did not want to be identified on account of their internal policies. "The RBI's offshore presence, alongside what it is doing onshore, is making speculators stay away from the rupee," a trader at a Mumbai-based private sector bank said. A trader at a second private sector bank said one of the largest public sector banks has been "on both sides" in the onshore market, making the rupee "fairly unresponsive".

☆ India, Singapore launch real-time link for cross-border payments
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Feb 21 (Reuters) - India and Singapore launched on Tuesday a real-time link to facilitate easier cross border money transfers between one of the world's biggest recipients of remittances and an Asian financial powerhouse. Transfers of funds will now be possible using just mobile phones due to the tie-up between India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and Singapore's PayNow facility. UPI is an instant real-time payments system, allowing users to transfer money across multiple banks without disclosing bank account details. To begin with, State Bank of India (SBI.NS), Indian Overseas Bank (IOBK.NS), Indian Bank (INBA.NS) and ICICI Bank (ICBK.NS) will facilitate both inward and outward remittances while Axis Bank (AXBK.NS) and DBS India will facilitate inward remittances, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in a statement. At the launch event, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that cross-border retail payments and remittances between India and Singapore currently amount to over $1 billion annually.

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