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US services sector growth slows moderately
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The survey's measure of new orders received by services businesses dropped to 51.8, the lowest level since December, from 57.5 in August. PRICES REMAIN ELEVATEDDespite the slowdown in new orders, services businesses continued to face higher prices. A gauge of prices paid by services businesses for inputs was unchanged at 58.9. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. The ISM's gauge of services sector employment dipped to 53.4 from 54.7 in August, which mostly reflected supply issues.
Persons: Amira Karaoud, Kurt Rankin, tightens, September's, Goldman Sachs, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci, Will Dunham Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, PNC Financial, United Auto Workers, Retailers, Treasury, Fed, ADP, Conference Board, Stanford Digital Economy, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman, BLS, Thomson Locations: Louisville, U.S, WASHINGTON, Pittsburgh
Private payrolls rose by 89,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would rise by 153,000. The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the release on Friday of the Labor Department's more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for September. The ADP report has not been a reliable gauge in trying to predict the private payrolls count in the employment report. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that private payrolls increased by 160,000 jobs in September.
Persons: Amira Karaoud, payrolls, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, ADP, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Stanford Digital Economy, Labor, of Labor Statistics Locations: Louisville, U.S
The US economy showed signs of a soft landing this summer. In September, the Federal Reserve buoyed those hopes by keeping interest rates unchanged for the first time since the first quarter of 2022. At the start of the rate increase, many borrowers, such as existing homeowners, had low mortgage interest rates locked in. As the economist David Rosenberg says, it typically takes six months for a recession to hit the economy after interest rates increase by this much. AdvertisementAdvertisementAnd while Powell said a soft landing is "possible," he also warned that it could be decided by factors "outside our control."
Persons: , Taylor, Oppenheimer, Morgan, David Rosenberg, Eric Thayer, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Costco, Bloomberg, Gas Locations: Monterey Park , California
The hikes scared investors into thinking a recession would be on the way. But today, the labor market remains strong and inflation is under 4%, prompting rosier outlooks about the fate of the US economy. Rate hikes take time to work their way into the economy. But their main adversary going forward is going to be the Fed, with inflation still elevated. The Consumer Price Index is at 3.7% year-over-year, and core inflation, which the Fed watches closely, is even higher at 4.3%.
Persons: Michael Pento, Piper Sandler, Pento, Louis, LEI, Greg Boutle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Jeremy Grantham, Merrill Lynch, Gary Shilling, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Conference, Stock, Robeco, Nasdaq, BNP, Fed
Minneapolis CNN —Higher gas prices heated up overall inflation last month, but the Federal Reserve got some welcome news: Its preferred inflation gauge cooled to its lowest level in two years. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, a closely watched inflation measure that excludes gas and food prices, rose 3.9% for the 12 months ended in August. However, it also was largely expected: Gas prices heated up last month as well. The Commerce Department’s monthly Personal Income and Outlays reports are typically closely watched as they provide a comprehensive account of pricing, income and spending data. Other federal data at risk for delays could include key housing and auto sales data, Census Bureau data, PCE and GDP reports, among others.
Persons: ” Andrew Patterson, ” Patterson, ” Dana Peterson, “ That’s, , that’s, Price, Security Administration’s, “ We’ve, ” Vanguard’s Patterson, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Vanguard, CNN, Energy, “ Energy, Consumers, Commerce, Conference Board, Labor, Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Price, Security, Adjustment, Labor Department Locations: Minneapolis, Saudi Arabia, Russia
Insider Today: A Google loophole exposed
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter. In today's big story, we're looking at how a Google loophole brings advertisements for illegal drugs hosted on defaced government websites to the top of search results. Previously, that wasn't an issue since these web pages never appeared in Google searches because website owners restricted Google from indexing them. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe result is people using internal search functions to create webpages advertising drugs on websites viewed as trustworthy by Google. The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, senior editor and anchor, in New York City.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, Tom Brady, Kendall Jenner, Arantza Pena, Insider's Katherine Long, hasn't, Katherine, Paul Sancya, Glenn Kelman, Meta, Dwyane Wade, Victor, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, ThredUp, Nancy Pelosi, Karlie Kloss, Spike Lee, Nattakorn, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Costco, Tech, Business, Google, Alcohol and Drug Foundation, Conference Board, JPMorgan, NBA, Amazon, Big Tech, Atlantic, ABC, Nike, Accenture Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Washington ,, New York City, San Diego, London, New York
The US consumer is starting to crack
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
AdvertisementAdvertisementEven as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, a good job market and strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. However, there are growing signs that the strength of the US consumer is starting to crack. Earlier this month, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. At the start of the rate increase, borrowers, like existing homeowners, had low mortgage interest rates locked in. Even dollar stores are starting to feel the pressure of more measured spending after initially benefitting from inflation as wealthier people looked for more value.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, It'll, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, National Association of Business Economics, Bank of America, Conference Board, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Costco Locations: Michigan
The 10-year Treasury yield was trading over 5 basis points lower at 4.501%. It had risen as high as 4.566% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2007. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down by more than 2 basis points to 5.052%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury coming down from the fresh 15-year high it hit on Tuesday. August's durable goods order figures are expected Wednesday, with economist surveyed by Dow Jones expecting a 0.5% decline.
Persons: Dow Jones, Wells Fargo, Biden Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Investors, Conference, Federal Reserve
US consumer confidence fell to a four-month low in September, the Conference Board said Tuesday. That's a sign Americans are feeling worse about the economy. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The US consumer confidence index, which measures how people are feeling about their own financial health and spending power, slipped to a four-month low in September, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Confidence slipped across every age group, according to the Conference Board, with the drop most pronounced among Americans earning upwards of $50,000 a year.
Persons: That's, , , they'll, Goldman Sachs, there's Organizations: Conference, Service, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Conference Board, St Louis Federal Reserve
US consumer confidence ebbs in September
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
A woman carries shopping bags during the holiday season in New York City, U.S., December 21, 2022. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell for a second straight month in September amid worries about higher prices and the political environment, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to 103.0 this month from an upwardly revised 108.7 in August. "Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more."
Persons: Eduardo Munoz, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Board, Reuters, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Consumers Are Growing More Pessimistic About the Economy
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Tim Smart | Sept. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +3 min
Consumers are growing more pessimistic about future prospects for the economy, according to the latest survey from the Conference Board released on Tuesday. “Consumer confidence fell again in September 2023, marking two consecutive months of decline,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the business organization. “September’s disappointing headline number reflected another decline in the expectations index, as the present situation index was little changed. “Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular,” Peterson added. “Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.
Persons: , Dana Peterson, , ” Peterson, “ Consumers, Kelly Mangold, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: Conference, , Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, U.S . Department of Housing, Urban Development, Real Estate Consulting, MLS, American Financial Corporation
WASHINGTON (AP) — The confidence of American consumers slipped this month, particularly about the future, as expectations persist that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period. The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 103 in September from 108.7 in August. Most troubling was the decline in the index measuring future expectations, which tumbled to 73.7 in September from 83.3 in August. Confidence improved late in the spring as inflation eased in the face of 11 interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. America’s employers added 187,000 jobs in August, evidence of a slowing but still-resilient labor market despite the high interest rates the Federal Reserve has imposed.
Persons: Dana Peterson Organizations: WASHINGTON, Conference Board, Target, Home, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, United States
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 34 points, or 0.1%. Futures linked to the S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.1%. Economists' estimates called for 695,000, per Dow Jones. Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecasted 105.5. Economists expect they declined 0.5%, according to Dow Jones.
Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, Rob Haworth, Blanke, Robert Schein, Schein Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Costco, Homes, Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban Development, Conference, Bank Asset Management, Micron Technology Locations: U.S
Minneapolis CNN —Rising gas prices and high interest rates contributed to greater economic uncertainty and dampened consumer confidence in September, dropping the key economic indicator to the lowest level in four months, according to data released Tuesday. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell for a second consecutive month, dropping to 103 in September from an upwardly revised 108.7 the month before. The index is at its second-lowest level this year, landing just above May’s 102.5 reading, according to Conference Board data. “Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. “Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing, and interest rates continue to rise — making big-ticket items more expensive,” she said.
Persons: “ Consumers, , Dana Peterson, Consumers, Peterson, Matthew Martin Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Board, , Conference Board, Consumers, Oxford Economics Locations: Minneapolis, US
Stock futures hovered near the flat line Monday evening. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 25 points, or 0.07%. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.06%. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.45%. Nevertheless, stocks are on pace to end September lower, a month that is already known as being historically weak for equities.
Persons: doesn't, it's, Mary Ann Bartels Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: Washington
And the US economy’s surprising resilience, despite 11 rate hikes, has raised hopes of a soft landing becoming a reality. “I’ve always thought that the soft landing was a plausible outcome, that there was a path to a soft landing,” he said. But historical records show that a soft landing has only occurred once in the 1990s, or perhaps even a handful of times. The US Commerce Department releases its final estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product. The US Commerce Department releases August data on household income, spending, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, “ I’ve, , , Powell’s, ” “ Jerome Powell, ” Quincy Krosby, Krosby, ” Krosby, Matt Egan, ” Neil Bradley, “ We’ve, Read, Christine Lagarde, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, John Williams Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Fed, LPL, CNN, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, European Central Bank, Costco, Global, Board, Survey, US Commerce Department, Micron, Nike, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Carnival Corp, University of Michigan, New York Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington
One is that the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index continues to show signs of slowing economic growth. "Real GDI has never fallen three quarters in a row without the economy being in a recession," Wolfenbarger said. This partially informs his call for the S&P 500 to fall to around 2,250, which would represent 48% downside from current levels. When it comes to Wolfenbarger's 48% sell-off call, it's well outside the mainstream of where strategists see stocks going. With valuations high, a meaningful recession could make that three times, as Wolfenbarger is warning.
Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Costa, Louis, Warren Buffett Organizations: JPMorgan, Bull, Institute for Supply Management's, Crescat, Federal Reserve Bank of St, downturns . Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: downturns .
A widely followed gauge of future economic activity declined 0.4% in August, continuing a nearly 18-month drop, the Conference Board said on Thursday. The business organization’s Leading Economic Index is now down 3.8% over the past six months and is exhibiting all the signs that a recession is imminent. “The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. Economists have generally been surprised by the strength of the U.S. economy this year, especially the resilience of the labor market in the face of rising interest rates. However, prices are holding firm with the median price of an existing home reaching $407,100 – up 3.9% from a year ago.
Persons: , Justyna, Monica, Jerome Powell, “ I’ve, “ It’s Organizations: Conference, US, Board, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors Locations: U.S
Usually when a meeting of the Federal Reserve is on the week’s calendar, economists and market strategists focus on the decision to come. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has all but said policymakers would be on hold for this meeting as they digest recent economic data and consider the effects that 11 interest rate hikes have had on the economy. But the Fed will issue a new set of economic forecasts and projections about where interest rates will be over the remaining months of 2023 and in 2024, along with the unemployment rate. However, the LEI has been flashing a recession signal now for many months. “While the LEI continues to signal recession, incoming data show a resilient economy,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment unit.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Steve Wyett, Wyett, LEI, , Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: Federal, BOK Financial, Wells, Congress Locations: U.S
We’re looking back at the strongest, smartest opinion takes of the week from CNN and other outlets. A vain and ambitious cigar-smoking bully who wore riding breeches, a polished helmet and boots and carried ivory-handled revolvers, he led troops on successful lightning strikes through German-held territory near the end of World War II. Musk has repeatedly been criticized for enabling and boosting antisemitic content on the platform.”“Isaacson tries to square these two Musks. During Trump’s first impeachment, Romney became the first senator in US history to vote to remove a president of his own party from office. He has been willing to do what he believes to be right — consequences be damned.”The differences between Romney and Trump were many.
Persons: CNN — “ Troy, Hadrian, , , George S, Patton, , Stephen D, Clay Jones, Elon Musks, Elon, Nicole Hemmer’s, Walter Isaacson, Musk “, Musk, ” “ Isaacson, Isaacson, ” Hemmer, Walt Handelsman, Kevin McCarthy, Donald Trump, McCarthy, Joe Biden, “ Trump, impeaching Biden, Norman Eisen, Trump, ” Eisen, Biden, James Antle III, , Hunter, McCarthy “, John Avlon, Dennis Aftergut, Lindsey Graham wasn’t, Michelle Lujan Grisham, she’s, Hunter Biden, Robert J, Spitzer, It’s, ” Vladimir, Kim, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong, Frida Ghitis, Putin, vaingloriously, Peter the Great, Sébastien Roblin, Don’t, Romney Francis Chung, AP Sen, Mitt Romney, Romney, Sen, John McCain, Trump’s, Lanhee J, Chen, Lisa Benson, Kate Bahn, ’ I’m, , Dana Peterson, Erik Lundh, ” Dana Summers, Kunis Mila Kunis, Ashton Kutcher, Mila Kunis, Danny Masterson, Jill Filipovic, “ Kutcher, Kunis, Kutcher, Masterson, Danilo Cavalcante, Arick, Scott Stantis, Jeff Yang, Jets Phil Hands, Julian Zelizer, Aaron Rodgers ’, ” Don’t, Nick Anderson, Tess Taylor, Tommy Tuberville, Mahnaz, Roxanne Jones, Coco Gauff, Amanda Tyler, Lara Setrakian, Paul Hockenos, Don Lincoln, Sophia Nelson, Tim Scott, Kenneth Branagh, Agatha Christie’s, Hercule Poirot, Noah Berlatsky, Poirot, Branagh, Sara Stewart, Winona Ryder Organizations: CNN, US, Marine Corps, Third Army, Vostochny, Twitter, Defamation League, Agency, Caucus, Republicans, Democrats, White, North, Putin, AP, Senate, Hollywood, Motors, Ford, Chrysler, Dodge, Peugeot, United Auto Workers, UAW, , Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Ninth, Academy Museum of Motion Pictures, REUTERS, Reuters, Apple, European Union, Jets, Boston Red Sox, The Chicago Cubs, The New York Jets, New York Jets, MetLife, Tribune, Studios Locations: China, Washington, New Mexico, Detroit, Russia’s, South Africa, Hunter Biden’s, Albuquerque, Bernalillo County, Russia, Ukraine, , Los Angeles , California, U.S, Aude, Pennsylvania, Brazil, Cupertino , California, Iran, New Texas, Venice
Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.
Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer confidence is starting to coincide with gas prices, says Conference Board CEOSteve Odland, The Conference Board CEO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the CPI report and inflation's impact on consumers.
Persons: Steve Odland Organizations: Conference
What happens to the US economy nextBank of America's economic indicator has made a sudden pivot upwards, from the lows of a "downturn" phase into the gradual strengthening of a "recovery" phase. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions.
Persons: it's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Jan, Staples underperformed, Bank of America Subramanian, Dev Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, Thomson, PMI, Supply Management Manufacturing, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey, Conference Board, Bond, ICE, Utilities, Health Care, Fed, of America
The US economy is in a "rolling recession" and a full-blown downturn looms, Liz Ann Sonders says. Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist doesn't expect a bunch of interest—rate cuts in 2024. "The leading indicators have absolutely imploded," Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said during a recent episode of "The Meb Faber Show." "We've never seen this kind of deterioration in leading indicators" outside of an ongoing recession, she added. Sonders was referring to The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which fell for a 16th straight month in July.
Persons: Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab's, doesn't, Charles Schwab, Faber, We've, Sonders, that's, it's Organizations: Service, shouldn't, Conference, Federal Reserve, Avatar Associates Locations: Wall, Silicon
The U.S. national debt is sitting at nearly $33 trillion dollars. "The public debt has always been used for emergencies. The national debt increased by more than 89% since the beginning of the pandemic, with many top economists in agreement that 2020 was not the time to worry about the debt. Servicing the debt can become difficult when interest rates are higher. The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates since March 2022 with the goal of slowing down economic activity.
Persons: Kris Mitchener, William Gale, Michael Peterson, Peter G, Lori Esposito, Murray, Stephanie Kelton Organizations: U.S, Leavey School of Business, Santa Clara University, Brookings Institution, Peterson Foundation, Economic Develop, Conference Board, Economic Development, The Conference Board, Federal Reserve, Stony Brook University Locations: U.S
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