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Coking coal prices, along with those for iron ore, have rallied on the back of this optimism, with both steel raw materials recording strong gains this year. The answer is that for coking coal there appears to be both rising demand and some supply disruptions at work. Japan, the second-biggest buyer of seaborne coking coal, imported 5.01 million tonnes in January, up from December's 3.98 million and roughly level with last January's 5.08 million. Outside of Asia, Europe's imports of coking coal rose to 3.81 million tonnes in January from December's 3.55 million, according to Kpler. The overall picture from coking coal imports is that there has been a move higher in recent months, which does provide some fundamental backing to the rally in prices.

In 2021, Europe's monthly LNG imports ranged from a low of 4.54 million tonnes to a high of 9.15 million. However, Europe's LNG demand eased off in January amid a milder winter than usual and ample inventories. While China does have long-term purchase agreements in place, it also buys spot cargoes. The question for the market is whether spot prices have dropped enough to tempt back Asian LNG buyers that were previously reluctant. It will be key to see if utilities in China, India and Pakistan also decide that prices have declined enough to make LNG imports economically viable once more.

China's imports were assessed at 10.98 million bpd in January, down from December's 11.37 million bpd and November's 11.42 million bpd. Asia's crude oil imports vs Brent priceFUEL EXPORTSAnother factor is the price of crude oil and the interplay between China's inventories and its exports of refined products. INDIA RECORDIndia, the region's second-biggest importer, saw January arrivals hit a record high of 5.29 million bpd, up from December's 4.78 million bpd. Other major Asian oil buyers also saw gains in January, with South Korea importing 3.11 million bpd, up from 2.85 million bpd in December, while Singapore imported 1.65 million bpd, up from 910,000 bpd. Japan was the exception, with January imports dropping to 2.83 million bpd from December's 2.96 million bpd.

China's diesel exports rose for a second month in December, hitting 2.79 million tonnes, up 32.8% from November's 2.10 million, according to official data released on Jan. 18. This is because they have been ramping up imports of cheaper Russian crude, thus lowering their input costs. China diesel exports vs gasoil crackRUSSIAN DIESELWhile the oil market has largely been able to work around the exit of Russian crude from Europe by re-routing it to Asia, it may be trickier to replicate this with the loss of Russian refined products. Some Asian fuel importers, such as Pakistan, the Philippines and Indonesia, may be happy to buy Russian fuel, but the discounts would have to be steep. What's more likely is that Asia's diesel and gasoline markets tighten as the EU ban on Russian fuel comes into effect.

While the Chinese ban has been lifted, it's unlikely that buyers will flock back to Australian thermal coal, given the availability of cheaper, and similar quality, coal from Russia. The weakness in prices wasn't limited to Australian thermal coal, with Indonesian grades also dropping. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, while Australia ranks second and Russia third. Russian thermal coal from Vostochny port, which is largely being bought by China after Japan curbed imports following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has also been weakening. Prices for Indonesia, Russia and Australia thermal coalVOLUMES SLIPThe softer prices for thermal coal are occurring as demand for seaborne cargoes appears to be weakening among Asia's top two importing nations.

☆ Here are the schools and colleges that have banned the use of ChatGPT over plagiarism and misinformation fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Beatrice Nolan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Education officials are trying to stop students from using OpenAI's ChatGPT. Seattle Public Schools and Los Angeles Unified School District put similar limits on the use of the bot in December. Seattle Public Schools also cited cheating concerns for the ban, per GeekWire. A spokesperson told the publication that "Seattle Public Schools does not allow cheating and requires original thought and work from students." In India, Bangalore's RV University banned students from using ChatGPT.

☆ Every year, ‘Invasion Day’ forces Australia to confront some painful truths
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Hilary Whiteman | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +13 min

Victoria’s state government called time on Melbourne’s Australia Day parade after two years of Covid cancellations, and Kmart, a normal go-to for party supplies, announced it wouldn’t be stocking traditional Australia Day merchandise – clothing, plates, napkins and other memorabilia draped in the Australian flag. Cooper is among a growing band of Indigenous allies who now refer to Australia Day as Invasion Day or Survival Day, after learning more about the nation’s history from those who suffered. Every year, Australia Day – or Invasion Day – forces a difficult conversation about those left behind, and what role everyone can play in finding a way forward. And it really is for many.”The Australia Day Live 2023 concert at Sydney Opera House on January 26, 2023. In the far western Queensland town of Boulia, Beck Britton had been worried that her attempts to throw an Australia Day party could fall flat.

Persons: Fred Leone, ” Leone, ”, Leone, Hilary Whiteman, Union Jack, Kate Darian, Smith, “ It’s, Christine Cooper, she’s, “, Cooper, ” Cooper, Cooper’s, they’re, ” Darian, Karlie Brand, Don Arnold, WireImage, Tracey Hanshaw, Aunties, Beck Britton, Britton, there’s, Jan Norton, wasn’t, Anthony Albanese, ” Albanese, Lidia Thorpe, Alexi J . Rosenfeld, Darian, Justice Aunties, “ We’ve Organizations: Australia CNN, CNN, Union, University of Tasmania, Kmart, Facebook, University of Newcastle, It’s, Nations, Invasion, Australia, First Nations, National, Day Council, Sydney Opera House, ”, Torres Strait Islander, Australian, Aboriginal, Torres Strait, ” Greens, Voice, Commonwealth, Heart Locations: Brisbane, Australia, Musgrave Park, Sydney Cove, Sydney, Musgrave, Brisbane’s, Newcastle, New South Wales, Queensland, Boulia, Britton’s, Melbourne, “

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China's re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Australia powers a rally for coking coal, a key steelmaking ingredient. Newcastle thermal coal futures have traded above coking coal contracts since June 1 last year - something that had not occurred previously in the history of the two contracts. At the same time, coking coal prices weakened as steel production outside China softened while the global economy simultaneously tried to deal with an energy crisis and the accompanying surge in inflation. Thermal coal vs coking coal pricesAUSTRALIA EXPORTSIt's worth noting that the end of Beijing's unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia has yet to show up in any meaningful way in China's imports, although there are signs that coking coal flows will resume. This raises the possibility that coking coal prices will continue to rally, while thermal coal prices may soften as the northern winter ends.

Russian crude export volumes have held up since Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, but only because China and India have stepped in to buy steeply discounted Russian oil. But while China's crude imports have been rising, a greater share appears to have been captured by Russia. If imports from Russia are excluded, it shows that June imports were 6.97 million bpd and November's were 9.52 million bpd. The increase for imports from all sources in November over June was 2.67 million bpd, but the total ex-Russia was 2.55 million bpd. This raises the possibility that Russia's share of China's crude imports will rise even higher.

The question now is whether 2023 will see China reassert its dominance as the main driver of commodity markets. There were differences in China's 2022 commodities imports, and the trends established may persist for a while yet. However, the trend for crude oil imports and product exports shifted in the last quarter of 2022. Crude oil imports rose 4% in December from the same month a year earlier, reaching 11.3 million bpd. It's likely that they will want to ramp up purchases in 2023 to meet rising domestic demand from the re-opening economy and ongoing fuel export quotas.

Total global LNG imports rose to 409 million tonnes last year from 386.5 million tonnes in 2021, according to data from Refinitiv, while figures from commodity analysts Kpler showed a slightly lower 400.5 million tonnes, up from 379.6 million tonnes. China imported 64.44 million tonnes of LNG in 2022, down 19.4% from the previous year, according to Kpler data. Much of the increase was met by supply from the United Stares, with imports rising to 52.06 million tonnes from 21.5 million tonnes in 2021. However, it's worth noting that Europe's imports of Russian LNG hit a record high of 15.95 million tonnes in 2022, up from 13.46 million tonnes in 2021. Given Europe's increasing dependence on LNG as Russian pipeline gas supplies are curbed, it may prove challenging for the continent to halt, or even cut back, on Russian LNG.

☆ Viking cruise passengers tried to maintain their sense of humor after marine growth on the ship's hull left them trapped onboard for 10 days: 'It was a plot twist'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Passengers aboard the Viking Orion missed several port stops due to marine growth on the ship. It was to be the "trip of a lifetime," Heydrick told Insider. The Viking Orion made headlines last month after the cruise ship missed several planned port stops due to "marine growth" found in the ship's hull. Cruise liner Viking Orion (L) is moored in Melbourne's Port Philip Bay on March 24, 2020. "Viking Orion" cruise ship under the flag of Norway is seen anchored at Bodrum Cruise Port in Bodrum district of Mugla, Turkey on April 18, 2021.

The answer is while any increase in China's crude oil imports may drive crude oil prices higher, a corresponding increase in fuel exports may weaken regional refining margins. In other words, there are many moving parts to the overall balance between China's crude import demand and regional fuel markets. Another point is that so far there is little evidence that China's crude oil imports are recovering. China doesn't disclose its stockpiles, but it likely added to inventories in 2022 even as total crude oil imports declined. China's crude oil demand isn't necessarily a one-way bullish street, even if the re-opening from COVID-19 is a success.

The first, and most important, is that Australian coal will struggle to compete on price in China, especially thermal grades used to make electricity. Once the informal ban came into effect, Australia's share of China's imports dropped to zero by early 2021. China's imports of Russian thermal coal have remained solid, with some seasonal variations, since then and were 2.96 million tonnes in December, according to Kpler. The question is whether Australian coal miners can compete on price with Russian thermal supplies, and the answer is probably not. Add in a likely price disadvantage and it's hard to see Australian thermal coal charging back into China.

☆ Australia PM pledges aid on visit to flood-ravaged northwest
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jan 9 (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese promised help to repair homes, replace property and rebuild infrastructure as he toured remote flood-ravaged communities across the northwest after "1-in-100-year" floods. Albanese announced on Monday A$10,000 ($6,900) for home repair and up to A$10,000 to replace household goods. "There's going to be massive infrastructure investment required," Albanese told radio station 6PR on Monday from Broome, roughly 2,000 kilometres northwest of state capital Perth. "I'm afraid I've now been to Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia and now WA (Western Australia) in the relatively short time that I've been Prime Minister... talking about a 1-in-100-year event over and over again," Albanese said. Military aircraft helped airlift supplies and evacuate residents in cut-off towns such as Fitzroy Crossing, home to roughly 1,000.

The 930-guest capacity Viking Orion docked in Sydney on Wednesday, the final stop on what is normally a 15-day, 9-stop cruise of New Zealand and Australia. But plans went awry, local media reported, after New Zealand officials asked the ship to leave the country's waters part way through its cruise after finding small amounts of biofoul - plants, algae and small animals - that grow on ship hulls. Tickets for a 15-day Auckland to Sydney cruise departing Jan 10 range from A$8,995 ($6,066.23) to A$29,995 on the Viking website. Viking's Orion is the second cruise ship to fall afoul of New Zealand officials in the past month. New Zealand fisheries officials stopped cruise ship Coral Princess entering the country's waters in December after finding snails on the hull.

☆ Australian economy on edge as fixed-rate mortgage pain looms in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The cost of paying your mortgage is literally going up for everyone by thousands of dollars," said the 31-year-old Lemon. Australia's big four banks - Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), Westpac (WBC.AX), National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) and ANZ (ANZ.AX) - account for 75% of the country's mortgage market. read moreThe RBA fears 15% of the borrowers on variable rates could see their cash flows turn negative, assuming that interest rates rise to 3.6% in line with market expectations. Buyers' agent Lloyd Edge says some cautious mortgage holders have been selling up before their fixed-rate loans expire. Hundreds of thousands of Australians took advantage of the ultra low rates during the COVID pandemic to enter one of the world's least affordable housing markets.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 20 (Reuters) - The folly and futility of forecasting commodity prices was rammed home this year, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine upending markets and rendering all prior expectations largely irrelevant. The first thing to note about 2022 was that while commodity prices were shocked by Russia's Feb. 24 attack on Ukraine, many are ending the year little changed or weaker than where they concluded 2021. This dynamic is probably already on display in crude oil, the world's most important commodity, with Brent futures poised to end the year little changed from the last trading day of 2021. In contrast to LNG and coal, metals have largely struggled in 2022, notwithstanding the bump from the conflict in Ukraine. The exception is lithium, with battery-grade lithium hydroxide up 132% so far this year as demand from vehicle and battery makers surge.

Of this amount, hydrogen projects accounted for A$266 billion of potential investment, the largest single contributor to the total. The total of proposed hydrogen and new energy projects is pegged at about A$308 billion in 2022, up about A$100 billion from the end of 2021. Australia's traditional powerhouse commodity exports of iron ore, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal are still attracting significant investment interest. In contrast, oil and gas projects at the committed stage total A$46 billion, while five ventures worth A$2.4 billion were completed in the period under review. Coal projects worth A$7.6 billion were at the committed stage and three ventures worth A$2.5 billion were finished in the year to Oct. 31.

☆ Planned wind farm told it will need to shut down for five months a year to protect parrots
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Anmar Frangoul | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Margot Kiesskalt | Istock | Getty ImagesPlans for a major new wind farm in Australia were given the thumbs up this month — on the provision its turbines go offline for five months a year to protect a parrot species. Robbins Island is located in waters off the northwest coast of Tasmania, a large island and Australian state. CNBC contacted ACEN Australia via the Robbins Island project's website, but did not receive a response prior to publication. The Ayala Corporation, parent company of ACEN Australia majority-owner ACEN Corporation, did not respond to a CNBC request for comment. In comments reported by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, ACEN Australia Chief Operating Officer David Pollington described the switch-off condition as "completely unexpected."

One is that China is continuing to build crude oil stockpiles, even though its refinery processing rates have risen strongly in recent months. But despite the solid gain in refinery processing, it appears that China is still building up crude oil inventories in commercial or strategic storage tanks. The total volume of crude available from imports and domestic production in November was 15.46 million bpd, consisting of imports of 11.37 million bpd and local output of 4.08 million bpd. China imported an estimated 1.80 million bpd from Russia in November, according to Refinitiv Oil Research, exceeding the 1.69 million bpd supplied by Saudi Arabia. China total crude available vs refinery runsDIFFERENT CRUDE DRIVERSOverall, there are several dynamics at work in the outlook for China's crude oil imports.

The centre-left federal government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has played its cards, announcing on Dec. 9 plans to legislate a year-long price cap for wholesale natural gas and thermal coal in the country's populous eastern states. Australia vies with Qatar and the United States for the title of the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and is the second-biggest shipper of thermal coal after Indonesia. Australia still generates about 50% of its electricity from thermal coal, although this share is shrinking rapidly as the country installs renewables such as solar, wind and battery storage. The ruling Labor Party's plans call for a price cap of A$12 ($8.15) per gigajoule (GJ) for gas and A$125 a tonne for thermal coal, with the government saying it will support any coal miner whose costs exceed the price cap. The gas industry probably would have been better served by asking some more relevant questions, such as whether a price cap is the best method of delivering relief to consumers.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 8 (Reuters) - China's imports of major commodities in November appeared unambiguously strong, but delving into the details shows a more nuanced picture amid ongoing uncertainty. Part of the jump in crude oil imports can be explained by a surge in exports of refined fuels. Shipments of products rose to 6.14 million tonnes in November, the highest since April last year and a jump of 37.7% from October and 46.4% from November 2021. MIXED PICTURESCoal imports also looked strong in November, rising to 32.3 million tonnes from October's 29.18 million, the gain being attributed to utilities ensuring sufficient supplies for winter. It was a similar story for iron ore imports, with a solid 10.7% gain in November to 98.85 million tonnes, up from October's 94.98 million.

Saudi crude is mainly sold under long-term contracts, but these usually contain clauses that allow for variations in volumes delivered, either at Aramco's behest or the request of the clients. This dynamic can be seen in China this year, with the world's biggest crude importer dropping imports from Saudi in November, but boosting those from Russia and Angola. China imported 1.72 million barrels per day (bpd) from Saudi Arabia in November, down from 1.87 million bpd in October, according to data compiled by Refinitiv Oil Research. However, China's imports from Russia rose to 1.90 million bpd in November from October's 1.82 million bpd, while those from Angola jumped to 680,000 bpd from 480,000 bpd the prior month. Russian crude will have to be offered at a discount, possible to the point where the $60 a barrel price cap becomes irrelevant.

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