The risk is the shopping recovery gets bifurcated between luxury purchases and basic needs, leaving out big-ticket middle-class items.
Meanwhile, Chinese savers added another 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to their household deposits in the first quarter, reinforcing concerns that they will keep hoarding instead of splurging.
Bank loans hit an all-time high of 10.6 trillion yuan in the first quarter, yet that did not appear to translate into private investment in fixed assets, which is barely growing.
In a speech in March, Cai Fang, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, suggested transferring 4 trillion yuan directly to households to compensate for weak income growth.
If the first quarter’s print turns out to be misleadingly rosy, China’s reopening boom could quiet down quickly.