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Could the Fed raise rates again in June?
  + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Traders saw a roughly 36% chance last Thursday that the Fed will raise rates by another quarter point in June, up from around 15.5% on May 12, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders pared down their expectations to about a 18.6% chance that the central bank will raise rates next month, as of Friday evening. Experts seem to agree that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates again in June. Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, also expects the Fed to hold rates steady in June. Dimon said in the same Bloomberg interview that he’d “love to get rid of the debt ceiling thing” altogether.
NEW YORK, May 19 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. regional lenders fell on Friday after CNN reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told bank chief executives that more mergers may be necessary following a series of bank failures. Yellen also reaffirmed the strength and soundness of the country's banking system at the meeting with bank CEOs on Thursday in the aftermath of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) fell 3%, with shares of PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) and Western Alliance (WAL.N) among the biggest losers as they shed 4% each. The regional bank crisis has been partly blamed by some on aggressive interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which forced some lenders to seek new capital to make up for a fall in the value of assets linked to interest rates. The debt ceiling dispute has weighed on market sentiment, including for regional bank stocks.
Fed's hawks make a pitch against a rate-hike pause
  + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
On Thursday, rate-futures markets reflected a one-in-three chance of a June rate hike, compared with a one-in-10-chance seen a week ago. The Fed has lifted borrowing costs at each meeting since March 2022, bringing them from near zero to a 5.00-5.25% range as of early this month. Consumer price inflation, for instance, edged down to a 4.9% annual pace in April but is still far above the Fed's 2% goal. However, his embrace of the idea that there is still a lot of policy tightening in the pipeline suggests he could be comfortable with a pause. Dallas Fed's Logan had the opposite presumption.
Greg Becker, the former CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, blamed social media as an "unprecedented" factor in the lender's demise. The former CEO of First Republic Bank, Michael Roffler, also blamed social media for its collapse two months later. Bank executives and directors have ordered their companies to add social media into risk-management programs, according to regional bank executives who declined to be identified because the discussions are private. "NIP IT IN THE BUD"Banks are also contacting customers who complain on social media to address their issues quickly. The Financial Stability Board, an international body, is also investigating the role of social media in recent market turmoil, a source said.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., greets Martin Gruenberg, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, during the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Dirksen Building on Tuesday, March 28, 2023. WASHINGTON — Sen. Elizabeth Warren is asking federal financial regulators for answers over what she called a "deeply troubling" deal that saw JPMorgan Chase take over First Republic Bank. "Our financial strength, capabilities and business model allowed us to develop a bid to execute the transaction in a way to minimize costs to the Deposit Insurance Fund." Instead, the insurance fund was allowed to take a multibillion-dollar loss after billions of dollars worth of the bank's uninsured deposits were rescued during the deal, Warren said. "The FDIC appeared to prioritize First Republic's uninsured deposits at the bank before the Insurance Fund," she said.
When asked in a Senate hearing this week who was to blame for the demise of Silicon Valley Bank, the lender’s former chief executive, Greg Becker, had plenty of ideas, blaming regulators, the bank’s board and its own customers for bringing it down. On Thursday, senior officials from two of the bank’s main regulators, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, told members of the same Senate panel that some of the impressions Mr. Becker had left lawmakers with were false. James N. Kramer, a lawyer for Mr. Becker, said Mr. Becker stood by the statements he had made. The regulators’ statements were part of a hearing held by the Senate Banking Committee on how bank oversight should look in the future in light of the failures of three regional banks this spring. It came two days after Mr. Becker appeared alongside former senior leaders of Signature Bank, a New York lender that collapsed just after Silicon Valley Bank did and prompted the federal government to take drastic steps to prevent widespread panic in the banking system.
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., October 23, 2018. US stock futures rise early Thursday, as investors await the weekly jobless claims report to measure the strength of the labor market. It revealed just a week ago that it already holds $1.5 billion of the world's most popular token. Here are the five bank stocks to bet on now. The tech giant's stock has rallied on its AI efforts, and it surpassed the key threshold for the first time since May 2022.
May 17 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. regional lenders jumped on Wednesday on growing investor confidence that the worst of the banking crisis was likely over, following news of strong deposit growth at Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N). Arthur Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, said Western Alliance's deposit growth disclosure was good news for worried investors. "Western Alliance, one of the most hard-hit banks, came out with a filing showing deposit increase. Western Alliance shares, which are down 41% year-to-date, surged 10% to $34.81, erasing losses recorded over the last two weeks. Other regional lenders closed higher: PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), whose stock has lost nearly 76% of its value year-to-date, spiked 22%.
Judge Martin Glenn in Manhattan handed a victory to SVB Financial in broader dispute over FDIC's efforts to recoup its costs in rescuing the failed Silicon Valley Bank, preventing the regulator from claiming future tax refunds that SVB Financial valued at $300 million. FDIC sought to escrow those funds while the regulator determines whether they properly belong to the seized bank or the bankrupt parent company. Glenn ruled that FDIC had no authority to intercept checks that were clearly written out to "SVB Financial." He ordered FDIC to return the intercepted checks by Friday, and to send any future tax refunds checks to SVB Financial. FDIC argued that the tax refunds may be owed to the seized bank, which is now run by First Citizens BancShares, under a tax agreement between the bank and its former parent company.
Experian's outlook highlights North America lending woes
  + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Eva Mathews | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
May 17 (Reuters) - Experian Plc's (EXPN.L) annual revenue growth forecast on Wednesday signalled a challenging economic backdrop, especially in North America, where the failure of three U.S. regional banks has hurt confidence in the sector. Experian's key customers include banks, non-traditional lenders and insurance providers, which use its credit reports and scores to analyse and make decisions around credit risk, fraud prevention and lending terms. "Tighter lending conditions (especially in North America) are impacting some of Experian's business lines with more direct volume exposure, including its core credit bureau and marketplace, which together account for about 17% of group revenue," Bank of America analysts said. About 67% of Experian's group revenue comes from the North America region. For the year ended March 31, Experian's organic revenue growth of 7% to $6.59 billion compared with analysts' consensus of $6.64 billion.
Ex-First Republic CEO blames contagion for bank's collapse
  + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
May 16 (Reuters) - The former chief executive of the First Republic Bank Michael Roffler blamed the bank's collapse on the contagion from the failures of other regional banks and said regulators did not express concerns regarding the bank's strategy, liquidity, or management performance. "We could not have anticipated that Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank would fail, or that the failure of those banks would trigger substantial deposit outflows at our bank," he said. First Republic's financial position and strategy were regularly reviewed by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) and the FDIC, he said. California banking regulators shut down First Republic Bank on May 1 and sold its assets to JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), in a deal to resolve the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis and draw a line under lingering banking turmoil. Reporting by Nilutpal Timsina in Bengaluru; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Western Alliance shares surged Wednesday after telling investors that deposits continue to stabilize. Deposit growth exceeded $2 billion on a quarter-to-date basis as of May 12, the lender said. Regional bank stocks followed Western Alliance's lead higher. Western Alliance shares zoomed up 12% to $35.45, the highest since May 2 when they traded above $36 each. Western Alliance shares have suffered a loss of more than 40% during 2023.
Small-cap stocks have been hurt by $8 billion in outflows from ETFs focused on that segment, says Jefferies. That started in March when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were seized, spooking investors. "Banks are a big part of small caps and are headwinds for the size segment," Jefferies strategist Steven DeSanctis wrote in a Wednesday research note. Meanwhile, small-cap stocks, which make up just over 4% of the equity market, tend to perform worse than large-caps when the economy is veering into a recession. Meanwhile, the current stalemate between Republicans and Democrats on the debt ceiling doesn't bode well for small-cap stocks, which slid by 25% during 2011 debt standoff.
Still, previously unreported data from New York-based real estate data provider Trepp, shared with Reuters, show many regional banks' holdings exceed thresholds stipulated by regulators. While big banks have recently warned about CRE exposure, the new Trepp data underscores how acute and widespread the problem is across the banking sector. The regulatory guidance requires that banks exceeding these thresholds "should employ heightened risk management practices," including potential sales of specific loans. Meanwhile, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB.N) and Flagstar Bank [RIC:RIC:FBCANK.UL] were among the top five banks listed by Trepp that exceeded the CRE loan threshold. In Tuesday congressional testimony, FDIC chair Martin Gruenberg warned CRE loan portfolios "face challenges" should market conditions persist.
Joseph DePaolo, the former CEO of Signature Bank, received about $8.6 million. Becker said his cash and stock bonuses were “predetermined” and that he wasn’t aware of when they would be paid out. “If you’d bought those hedges [against Treasuries purchased by the bank], that would have cut into your profits, wouldn’t it? “And when the banks blow up, Mr. Becker and Mr. Shay get to keep all the money. And that is just plain wrong.”ChatGPT goes to WashingtonOpenAI CEO Sam Altman also made his way to the Senate on Tuesday.
Berkshire acquired 9.92 million shares in Capital One, a stake worth $954 million based on the closing price on March 31, regulatory filings showed on Monday. The bank's shares have shed around 15% since early March as the banking crisis has clobbered shares of U.S. regional lenders. Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank are the three banks that have so far collapsed during the current crisis. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) fell 0.38%. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the central bank was "carefully considering" rule changes for larger regional banks, including requiring them to account for unrealized losses on their banks when considering capital levels.
Former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker plans to apologize to a Senate panel and say that no bank could have survived the deposit run that SVB saw in March. Photo: patrick t. fallon/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesFormer Silicon Valley Bank Chief Executive Greg Becker and two ex-executives from Signature Bank will appear in front of a Senate committee Tuesday, where the chairman is expected to blame senior management for the pair of failures in March. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said the banks grew too fast and repeatedly ignored warnings from federal and state officials in the face of “glaring risks” from customer and industry concentration, according to prepared remarks released ahead of the hearing.
Watch live coverage of a Senate Banking Committee hearing with the former heads of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, after the failure of the banks. Senate Democrats and Republicans pressed former Silicon Valley Bank Chief Executive Greg Becker and two ex-executives from Signature Bank Tuesday, blaming both banks’ management for the way they handled rapid growth and rising interest rates before collapsing in MarchSenate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said the banks grew too fast and repeatedly ignored warnings from federal and state officials in the face of “glaring risks” from their customer and industry concentrations. SVB catered to startup and venture customers, a tightknit group who pulled their large deposits when trouble hit. Signature bet on crypto banking and then struggled after the sector imploded.
Watch live coverage of a Senate Banking Committee hearing with the former heads of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, after the failure of the banks. Former Silicon Valley Bank Chief Executive Greg Becker and two ex-executives from Signature Bank appeared in front of a Senate committee Tuesday, where the chairman blamed senior management for the pair of failures in March. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said the banks grew too fast and repeatedly ignored warnings from federal and state officials in the face of “glaring risks” from customer and industry concentration.
New York CNN —More than two months after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank triggered a financial earthquake, three former executives spoke publicly for the first time in testimony before a Senate committee Tuesday. Here are the key takeaways from the Senate hearing:Everyone else messed upThe executives conducted a masterclass in deflecting blame for their banks’ failures. In his testimony, Becker said he was “truly sorry” for the bank’s collapse, blaming a “series of unprecedented events.”Greg Becker, former CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, left, testifies next to Scott Shay, former chairman and co-founder of Signature Bank, and Eric Howell, former president of Signature Bank, during a Senate hearing. “Rumors and misconceptions spread quickly online,” sparking the bank run, Becker told lawmakers. Spoiler alert: Becker didn’t commit to returning any money and Shay said he had no intention to do so.
"I believe it was a series of unprecedented events that all came together in the fastest bank run in history," Becker told the Senate Banking Committee. "I was the CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, I take responsibility for what ultimately happened," Becker said. Executives from Signature Bank also testified alongside Becker on Tuesday, pushing back on assertions from lawmakers that the bank had weak corporate governance. "I don't believe that there was mismanagement at the bank," said Eric Howell, the former president of Signature Bank. The bank tried to cover the loss by raising capital, but in announcing the transaction helped fuel a bank run.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of the Nations Largest Banks, in Hart Building on Sept. 22, 2022. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that it's not likely his bank would acquire another struggling lender after its government-brokered acquisition of First Republic. "Unlikely," was Dimon's curt response to a shareholder who asked about acquisitions during the New York-based bank's annual shareholder meeting. The turmoil in mid-sized banks sparked by the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March shows that merely meeting regulatory requirements isn't enough, Dimon added. Dimon spoke on the same day that former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Gregory Becker and two ex-Signature Bank executives testified before the Senate.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said the ongoing credit squeeze is equivalent to three or four Fed rate hikes. Siegel urged the Fed to pause its inflation war given tightening credit conditions and the central bank's lagged economic data. "They're in dangerous territory of precipitating a recession," Siegel said. "I actually think the tightening caused by this crisis is equivalent to three or four 25 basis point hikes of the Fed," Siegel said Monday in a Fox Business interview. The Fed has been persistent in its war against inflation, even though price pressures have showed promising signs of cooling.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSen. J.D. Vance on recent bank failures: FDIC 'changed the rules' in the middle of the gameSen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) joins 'Squawk Box' to preview the Senate Banking Committee's hearing on the failures of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks, his view on deposit guarantees, and more.
Bank of America is jumping back on the Western Alliance Bancorp bandwagon. Analyst Ebrahim H. Poonawala resumed coverage on the bank with a buy rating. Bank of America dropped its rating on the stock as Western Alliance got caught up in the broader regional bank sell-off after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank — which was then followed by the collapse of First Republic. Western Alliance shares have lost more than 58% over the past three months. WAL 3M mountain Western Alliance shares Poonawala noted that while Western Alliance "is not out of the woods yet," the bank's management has shown "remarkable execution thus far in navigating the post SVB turmoil."
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