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The real estate market is "collateral damage" in the Fed's inflation fight, Barry Sternlicht said. AdvertisementThe commercial real estate market is hurting, and that's largely thanks to the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes which have battered the economy, real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht said. In an interview on "In Depth with Graham Bensinger," the real estate investor and Starwood Capital CEO sounded off the Fed's policy-tightening campaign since early 2022. AdvertisementLast year, Sternlicht warned of a "Category 5 hurricane" coming for the real estate market, which he believed could be followed by a recession. Still, Sternlicht said he was optimistic about the real estate market going forward, and while property prices have plunged, that creates investment opportunity.
Persons: Barry Sternlicht, I've, Sternlicht, , Graham Bensinger, Morgan Stanley, Sternlict, Powell, Joe Biden Organizations: Starwood, Service, Starwood Capital CEO, Bloomberg, Fed, Wall, Infrastructure Investment, Investors
Mortgage rates drop after climbing for four weeks
  + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates ticked down slightly this week, a tiny boon to buyers eager to make a move with newly listed homes coming to market. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.88% in the week ending March 7, down from 6.94% the previous week, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. While mortgage rates are expected to fall further in 2024, Sturtevant added, short-term movements in mortgage rates will likely be influenced by congressional testimony given this week by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During his semiannual monetary report to Congress, he indicated there is no rush to cut interest rates with more evidence of cooling inflation. The February jobs report, which will be released Friday, is also likely to have some bearing on mortgage rates.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, homebuyers, Khater, Redfin, Lisa Sturtevant, ” Sturtevant, Sturtevant, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN —, Mortgage, Association, Federal Housing Administration, Redfin, MLS, Bright MLS, Federal, Congress Locations: Washington
The American Dream is under siege
  + stars: | 2024-03-02 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +15 min
Parents of young children are making difficult choices to afford child care — or they’re opting to evade it by dropping out of the workforce altogether. Even as the inflation rate has cooled across the US economy, child care remains a sore spot for many families. The weekly price of day care for a toddler surged 9% in 2023, according to Care.com, a marketplace for child care. Of course, Allison is hardly alone in feeling like the American Dream has been more difficult — and expensive — to attain than imagined. “The American dream is being taken away from the younger generation by the housing affordability challenges,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.
Persons: Hana Husković, Price, Hana, Michelle, they'll, ” Hana, , It’s, they’ll, ’ Allison Powell, Liam Kelly, ” Allison, Allison Powell, Corinne ., , Allison, I’ll, homebuyers, Lotfi Karoui, Goldman Sachs, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Priscilla Almodovar, Fannie Mae, ” Almodovar, that’s, Almodovar, they’d, Homebuilding, Mark Zandi, Biden, ” Lael Brainard, Brainard, ” Brainard, , Rachael Gambino, Garrett Mazzeo, Rachael, Deborah Brunswick, John General, ” Rachael, won’t, they’ve, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall, CNN, Federal, Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, Bloomberg, Getty, Rust Belt, National Association of Realtors, North, NAR, That’s, Baby Boomers, Homeowners, Federal Reserve, Moody’s Analytics, White, National Economic Council, American, Target, Starbucks, Facebook Locations: New York, United States, Atlanta, Peachtree Corners , Georgia, Decatur, Decatur , Georgia, Carolina, Yugoslavia, Italy, Mexico, Oakland , California, Livermore, San Francisco, California, Los Angeles, San Diego, Francisco, Miami, Honolulu, Rust, Des Moines , Iowa, Dayton , Ohio, Cleveland , Ohio, Scranton , Pennsylvania, Los Angeles , California, North America, America, States, Lansdale , Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
New listings for homes for sale climbed 12.9% year-over-year in February, Redfin data shows. Total inventory also improved, as total homes for sale did not decline for the first time in nine months. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Mortgage-purchase applications have dropped for four consecutive weeks, and pending sales dipped 8%, the steepest drop in five months.
Persons: , Redfin, Brynn Rea Organizations: Service, Mortgage Locations: Redfin, Spokane , Washington
Goldman Sachs reiterates Salesforce as buy Goldman said it's standing by its buy rating following the company's robust earnings report on Wednesday. "Multiple high-profile catalysts should double revs by FY28 & support an Outperform rating with a $54 PT." "We initiate coverage of Gates Industrial (GTES) with a Buy rating and $21 price target. The more aggressive stance follows a near week long sell-off in COLD shares following 4Q results and initial 2024 guidance." Goldman Sachs reiterates Microsoft as buy Goldman said it's standing by its buy rating after a meeting with Microsoft investor relations.
Persons: Jefferies, Roth, Roth MKM, Morgan Stanley downgrades Snowflake, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Salesforce, Goldman, it's, TD Cowen downgrades Macy's, Telsey, TD Cowen, Wells, Needham, " Jefferies, Tesla, Coupang, Baird, Cantor Fitzgerald, Cantor, Gates, Piper Sandler, Piper, Raymond James, William Blair, Gordon Haskett downgrades, Haskett, Frank Slootman's Organizations: Jefferies, Barrick Gold, NEM, UBS, Apple, Mar, Bitdeer Technologies, BTC, Citi, United Airlines, Delta, Delta Air Lines Inc, DAL, Deere & Company, American Airlines Citi, Catalyst Watch, Reliance, Star India, JV, UBS downgrades Republic Services, Downside, RBC, Xenia Hotels, Resorts, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Products, Gates, NTR, LXU, UW, Bank of America, underperform Bank of America, Realty Trust, Fidelity, Korn, Microsoft, Macquarie Locations: U.S, China, American's, DIS's, Xenia, Federal, Korea
The future of the US economy is in the South
  + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
If you're searching for the future of the American economy , look South. Population growth is among the key drivers of economic growth , and Americans are clustering in the South. The South had the highest job openings rate and the lowest unemployment rate of any region, per BofA. Houston's energy economy , Miami's proximity to Latin America and growing financial industry , Dallas's blossoming environment of diversified business behemoths, and Nashville's status as a healthcare and tech hub could position each of these Southern cities to thrive in the future. To varying degrees, some Southern cities are already seeing how high housing costs can plague an area with surging demand .
Persons: weren't, who've, Niall Ferguson, Barron's, Houston — Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, Texans, Dallas Fed, Houston Locations: Northeast, Midwest, West, Southern, United States, Carolina, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Texas, New York, San Francisco, Houston, Dallas, Nashville, Miami, Stanford, America, San Francisco , New York, Los Angeles
The US residential market added $2.4 trillion in value last year, listings site Redfin said. AdvertisementThe housing market in the US added $2.4 trillion last year, jumping to $47.5 trillion. Though housing demand has been dampened by stubbornly high mortgage rates, the total value of the market climbed by 5.3% from December 2022, preliminary data released by Redfin on Wednesday showed. Pandemic-era mortgage rates fell below 3%, driving a frenzy of buying in 2020 and 2021. The combination of elevated mortgage rates, high home prices and a limited pool of homes for sale means homeownership is about as unaffordable as ever.
Persons: Redfin, , aren't, Chen Zhao Organizations: Service Locations: Redfin, New York City, New Jersey, Midwest, Milwaukee, Grand Rapids, New York, Honolulu , Riverside, Denver
Fewer Americans are moving within the US, and boomer homeowners in more expensive states may explain why. Over the last few decades, US internal migration has fallen substantially. Census data shows internal migration has slowed since the 1970s amid deindustrialization and a weaker economy. "This suggests that declining internal migration is due to changes in structural aspects of migration choice, which affect individuals and families of many different backgrounds," the authors wrote. Net migration has been strongest out of California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York, which have relatively high wages and housing prices.
Persons: William Olney, Owen Thompson Organizations: Williams College, Business, Sun Belt Locations: California, New York, Northeast, Midwest, Northwest, Southwest, California , Illinois , Massachusetts , New Jersey, Georgia, North Carolina , Tennessee, Texas, California , New York, New Jersey, Florida , Nevada, Arizona
Many of these new residents are single Gen Zers, millennials, and students. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . For some, that's meant flocking to the Midwest, and its promises of cheaper living, more space, and friendly neighbors. While the initial pandemic bump in Midwest residents has slowed a little, its population level is still above pre-pandemic highs. Gen Zers, the oldest of whom are 27, make up the greatest percentage of movers, followed by millennials, topping out at age 43.
Persons: , Gen Zers, millennials, Zers, Gen Xers, Gen Alpha, haven't, Redfin, Texans —, James McClure, Alcynna Lloyd, McClure, Lloyd Organizations: Service, Gen, Census, Midwest, Texans Locations: Midwest, California , Florida, Texas, East Coast, New York, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Austin
But the firm says rising insurance costs could eventually dampen demand. The researchers then gave each county a composite climate risk score, measured against each area's house price index. AdvertisementA positive relationship also emerged between higher climate risk and population growth, indicating that more people were migrating in than leaving these areas. Others may simply have no intent on selling, and consider themselves too old to experience these rising costs. But changes to property insurance may force prospective buyers to give more attention to climate risks, JPMorgan noted.
Persons: Alexander Wise, Jan Loeys, Risks, Redfin Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Foundation Locations: Florida
Read previewJasmine Cambridge, a 25-year-old steakhouse server with aspirations of working in marketing, moved from Atlanta to Austin in 2023. Over 14,100 movers to Austin came from California, while nearly 4,900 moved from New York. AdvertisementA majority of movers to Austin from other states were white, making up 52% of movers, while Hispanic individuals account for 23.1%. Less than half of Americans moving to Austin are married — 43.2% — while 45.6% are single or unmarried. Census data shows that about 74.26% of movers to Austin are renters, while 25.74% are homeowners.
Persons: , Jasmine Cambridge, Austin, I've, Austin —, Jasmine Cambridge Pengyu Cheng, Cheng, Pengyu Cheng, it's, Tesla, They've, Gen Z Organizations: Service, Business, Apple, Google, Oracle, Austin, Survey, University of Minnesota's, Census, Redfin Locations: Atlanta, Austin, Cambridge, San Francisco, California, Pengyu, Texas, New York . Florida , Oregon, Washington
Washington, DC CNN —Americans racked up a record amount of credit card debt in 2023, soaring past a trillion dollars. “Consumers still have a lot of money left over to be able to spend, so the credit card data is often misinterpreted,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, told CNN. According to a LendingTree analysis of more than 350,000 credit reports, the average unpaid credit card balance was $6,864 in the fourth quarter. Overall, US household debt (including credit card balances) rose to a new high of $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the prior three-month period. So, while there certainly isn’t a shortage of economic hurdles bedeviling people’s budget — and credit card debt has surged — the big picture indicates that, so far, Americans (and their economy) remain healthy.
Persons: ” Russell Price, Price, haven’t, market’s, ” Gregory Daco, ” Lara Rhame, Laura, Jensen Huang, Christine Lagarde, Virgin, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, John Williams, Papa, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, fuboTV, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Adriana Kugler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Workers, New York Fed, Consumers, Ameriprise, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, . New York Fed, Employers, Soaring, FS Investments, Nvidia, Huawei, AMD, Microsoft, Broadcom, US Commerce Department, Central Bank, eBay, Smucker, Urban Outfitters, Global, Board, TJX, Monster Beverage, Baidu, HP, Paramount Global, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Dell Technologies, Papa John’s, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, P, China’s National Bureau, Statistics, Pearson, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ., EY, Santa Clara, Singapore, Shenzhen, China, Beijing, CAVA
Sales of previously owned homes rose 3.1% in January to 4 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. The count is based on closings, so the contracts were likely signed in November and December, when mortgage interest rates backed off their October high of 8%. "Listings were modestly higher, and home buyers are taking advantage of lower mortgage rates compared to late last year." While lower mortgage rates helped boost January sales, today's higher rates are already once again weighing on the market. Correction: The 32% all-cash share of January 2024 home sales was up from 29% in January 2023.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, Yun, It's Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Mortgage News, NAR, Redfin
This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. "I grew up in Nutley," Lorraine Hurlbut , the listing agent for the home who works with Keller Williams NJ Metro Group, told Business Insider. Advertisement“We have New Yorkers, people from Hudson County that live in Jersey City and Hoboken come,” to buy homes in Nutley, Hurlbut said. With 15 bids received, the home's sale price soared by over 40% of the asking price — setting a record in Nutley, Hurlbut told NJ.com. “I don't do minimal staging,” Hurlbut told Business Insider.
Persons: , William Lambert, Lorraine Hurlbut, Keller, It's, Hurlbut, , Geoffrey, NJ.com, ” Hurlbut, Hurlburt, Organizations: Service, Business, Keller Williams NJ Metro Group Locations: Nutley , New Jersey, Nutley, Essex County, New York City, Hudson County, Jersey City, Hoboken, New York, New Jersey
Florida, which has long attracted new residents thanks to its beaches and absence of state income tax, is getting an economic boost driven by young Americans seeking new opportunities. AdvertisementYoung people are driving Florida's economic strength. Getty ImagesFlorida's economy is growing thanks to the newcomersFlorida's population surge is driving the state's robust economy and demand for housing. The Sunshine State's economy is projected by Wells Fargo to expand in 2024, propelled by a robust job market. Thanks to the more damaging weather, Floridians paid more for home insurance in 2023 and the second-most for car insurance compared with other states.
Persons: , Wells, Sean Pavone, Wells Fargo, Taylor Tyson, Miami —, Policygenius, Hurricane Ian, Matias J, Forbes, Michael Bordenaro Organizations: Service, Smart Asset, " Employers, Wells, , Census, SEC, Miami, Miami Herald, Tribune, Getty Locations: Florida, Florida . Florida, Tampa , Florida, Wells, — New York , California, New Jersey, California, New York, Florida — Jacksonville, Tampa, Hurricane, Miami, St, Petersburg
Texas' fastest-growing city is a small spot outside Dallas called Josephine, census data shows. “It's a stressor being in that type of environment,” Moore told Business Insider. AdvertisementAccording to census data, Josephine is the fastest-growing city in Texas. AdvertisementAn aerial view of Josephine, Texas. “The majority of the homes in the city of Josephine are overwhelmingly priced at $300,000.
Persons: Josephine, , Cassidy Moore, Moore —, McKinney , Texas —, , ” Moore, Moore, she’d, Redfin, Dallas ’, Antonio —, , Let's, ’ ”, homebuilder, Horton, Robbie Hale, Burnet, Bonnie Hunt, Lisa Palomba “ Josephine, ” Hunt, “ It's, Lisa Palomba, ” Palomba, Josephine —, We're, Sherman Organizations: Texas, Service, Fort Worth metroplex, Google, US, Waverly Estates, Estates, Texan, Real Estate, McKinney Locations: Dallas, Fort Worth, McKinney , Texas, Josephine, Texas, Florida, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Austin, DFW, Josephine , Texas, D.R, Meadow, Horton, Sun, Florida , Georgia, Arizona, McKinney, Plano,
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . After showing stronger signs of life in recent months, activity in the US housing market shifted back to low gear in January. The culprit behind the slowdown has been more subdued expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has, in turn, kept mortgage rates high. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.87% last week, an uptick after a period of steady declines.
Persons: , Hal Bennett, Bennett Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Investors Locations: Bellevue , WA
Homebuyers are facing a worsening affordability situation with mortgage rates hovering around the highest levels in more than a decade. Mortgage rates shot higher Friday after a monthly government report on wholesale prices showed inflation is still persistent and hotter than most analysts had expected. Mortgage rates hit their last high in October but then fell sharply over the next two months, leveling out at around 6.6% in December. In February's report, builders said they expected mortgage rates to continue to moderate in the coming months. "And while mortgage rates still remain too high for many prospective buyers, we anticipate that due to pent-up demand, many more buyers will enter the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to decline this year."
Persons: Matthew Graham, Alicia Huey Organizations: Mortgage News, . Census, National Association of Home Builders Locations: Albany , California, Birmingham , Alabama
Much of the Sunbelt "has [a] low air-quality risk but it has high heat risk, high flood risk, high wind risk from things like hurricanes," she said. When looking at moving trends within counties and cities from 2000 to 2020 paired with flood risks, researchers at First Street Foundation noticed clear signals of people moving away from areas exposed to flooding. Additionally, more than 3.2 million (35.5%) of those residents said they left specifically because of the flood risk. 'I personally was impacted by air quality'Over 85% of homes in 13 major cities are highly exposed to poor air quality; nine are in California and the rest are spread out in Washington, Oregon and Idaho, Redfin found. "I personally was impacted by air quality," Fairweather said.
Persons: Eduardo Munoz Alvarez, Fairweather, We're, Jeremy Porter, Porter, Redfin Organizations: Getty, First Street Foundation, CNBC, riskier metros Locations: West Coast, Sunbelt, Arizona , Florida , Nevada , North Carolina, South Carolina , Texas, Tennessee, New York, U.S, California, Washington , Oregon, Idaho, Seattle, Wisconsin, riskier
The number of home sales per agent has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade, Apollo's Torsten Slok said. There are also fewer real estate agents per 1,000 jobs in states like California and New York as people flock to southern states. And it's slowing things down for real estate agents. The number of home sales per agent has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade, a note from Apollo Management's Torsten Slok stated. Real estate agents per 1,000 jobs Apollo ManagementThe cost of living and even the climate have helped warp the market.
Persons: Apollo's Torsten Slok, , Apollo Management's Torsten Slok, Sløk, There's, Still Organizations: Service, Apollo, San Locations: California, New York, Florida , Texas , Arizona, Colorado, Real, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, New York City
US property investors snapped up 26.1% of low-priced homes in the fourth quarter, a record share. Single-family homes accounted for more than two-thirds of investors' purchases in Q4, at 68.6%. Zooming in, low-priced homes accounted for 46.5% of investor purchases, with mid-priced homes at 24.6% and high-priced homes at 28.8%. Inventory is still low across the country as sellers cling to lower mortgage rates they locked in years ago. It's worth noting though that big institutions make up a small percentage of investors in the market buying homes.
Persons: , Redfin, Carrie Caruthers, Sheharyar Organizations: Service, Department of Housing, Urban Development Locations: California
Three multimillion-dollar mansions now sit on the edge of a cliff in California. Heavy rainstorms caused landslides that eroded the cliff along Scenic Drive in Dana Point. AdvertisementEarly February rainstorms across Southern California have left three Dana Point homes in precarious positions. Gavin Newsom of California declared a state of emergency in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties on February 4. In Los Angeles, the storms caused 562 mudslides and resulted in 15 homes being red-tagged, meaning they were designated as unsafe to inhabit, the Los Angeles Times reported.
Persons: , Gavin Newsom, Dana, Allen J, Mike Killebrew Organizations: Authorities, Service, Gov, Los Angeles Times, Getty, The New York Post, CBS News Locations: California, Dana Point, Southern California, Orange County, oceanside, Los Angeles , Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura counties, Dana Point , California, Redfin, Los Angeles
Americans are staying in their homes twice as long as they used to, a trend largely driven by boomers. Around 40% of baby boomers have stayed in their homes for at least 20 years, per a Redfin analysis. That can be chalked up to the unaffordable housing market, with mortgage rates and prices both elevated. The shift is largely driven by baby boomers, the real estate listing site said, who are staying put as mortgage rates and home prices remain elevated. Most (54%) baby boomers who own homes own them free and clear, with no outstanding mortgage," Redfin said in a note on Wednesday.
Persons: , That's, boomers, Gen Zers, Redfin, it'll Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve
The housing market, they claimed, was a bubble destined to burst. I’ve spent the past few years asking experts a simple question: Has the housing market reached bubble territory? AdvertisementFor a time, it seemed like the housing market was doing a speedrun through Simonsen’s checklist. And even if the economy does take a turn, a run-of-the-mill recession probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the housing market. The housing market is far from balanced, but we’re at least heading in that direction.
Persons: doomsayers, I’ve, Redfin, you’ve, you’ll, Mike Simonsen, megalandlords, , Ian Shepherdson, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rick Palacios Jr, John Burns, ” doomsayers, might’ve, It’s, it’s, Logan Mohtashami, don’t, US homebuilders, “ It’s, ” Mohtashami, Selma Hepp, Fannie Mae, Palacios, ” Palacios, Mohtashami Organizations: Altos Research, Wall, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Housing Finance Agency Locations: Charlotte, North Carolina, Austin, Las Vegas, Miami, Boise , Idaho, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US
Business Insider spoke to Tarek El Moussa ahead of the release of his book, "Flip Your Life." El Moussa said building starter homes in California typically isn't profitable. "I can't tell you how to build a house in California today and make money unless it's a high-end home," El Moussa said. Tarek and Heather Rae El Moussa on "The Flipping El Moussas." Lisette GatliffFor El Moussa, remaining flexible as the market changes has been key to his success, particularly regarding location.
Persons: Tarek El Moussa, El Moussa, , Heather Rae El Moussa, it's, Tarek, El, Redfin Organizations: Service, HGTV, Business, California El, Forbes Locations: California, Orange County, LA, Los Angeles, LA County, Orange
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