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Morning Bid: Bland China data leaves market hungry for stimulus
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The Q2 GDP number of +0.8% q/q just pipped forecasts, but y/y undershot at 6.3% suggesting revisions somewhere to the past. The market reaction was disgruntled with Chinese shares down and the yuan easing. The data underlined the need for much more serious fiscal spending but Beijing seems in no hurry to satiate market wishes this time. The central bank left one-year rates unchanged on Monday, and analysts seem resigned to wait for a Politburo meeting later this month for fresh steps. Goldman Sachs says passive funds that track NDX will rebalance their portfolios but the 2011 special rebalance experience suggests the stock-level impact will be limited.
Persons: Wayne Cole, BofA, Goldman Sachs, Fabio Panetta, Christine Lagarde, Frank Elderson, Philip R, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Investors, Aussie, Tesla, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Finance Ministers, Central Bank Governors, ECB, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Manufacturing Survey, Thomson Locations: Wayne, China, Beijing, 4ppt, Gandhinagar, India, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Goldman Sachs said the odds of a recession in the next 12 months have fallen to 20% from 25% earlier. In a note on Monday, the bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 20%, down from an earlier estimate of 25%. Meanwhile, Goldman is also putting less emphasis on the inverted yield curve, a traditionally reliable indicator of an approaching recession. But in today's cycle, it may be misguided, due in part to the possibility that the Fed may cut rates to respond to slowing inflation, not a recession, Hatzius said. For the US, the bank forecast only one remaining interest rate hike, in line with what a majority of investors expect.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, Brazil, Poland, Chile,
The biggest stocks in the market will soon get taken down a peg or two, at least on paper. The seven largest stocks in the Nasdaq-100 will be diluted down to 44% of the index from the current 56%. The changes mean the Invesco QQQ Trust and other funds that closely follow the index will need to sell some of the biggest stocks in the market this week. "Nasdaq slashed the NDX weight of AAPL from 20% to 12%, but this change had no clear negative effect on the stock's performance. The rebalance comes as the increased concentration of large-cap tech stocks has raised concerns the current market rally is unsustainable.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Lori Calvasina, Bram Kaplan, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Broadcom, RBC Capital Markets, JPMorgan
The Nasdaq-100 index is getting a makeover. Here's how
  + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —The Nasdaq-100 index is getting a fresh look. What happened: The index comprises 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. Seven companies listed in the Nasdaq-100 accounted for roughly 51% of the index as of June 3, according to a note by Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates. The Nasdaq is looking to fix that problem – without changing any of the stocks in the index. Nasdaq won’t remove or add any stocks to the index during this rebalance, according to the release.
Persons: Louis Navellier, Apple, Donald Calcagni, , What’s, Cameron Lilja, Bob Iger, Ron DeSantis, Tucker Carlson, ” Iger, Read, Hanna Ziady Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Nasdaq, Navellier, Associates, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Mercer Advisors, Stocks, Florida Gov, Disney, Fox News, CNBC, McKinsey Global Institute Locations: Europe, Florida
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) , which has even heavier exposure to Big Tech names, has brought in $5.8 billion of its own. "It's not really the overconcentration in the big names that worries me. It's actually the concentration in the big names compared to their earnings contribution," said Oktay Kavrak, director of communications and strategy at Leverage Shares. Whether you're passive or active, you probably have enough exposure to Nvidia and Apple and Microsoft," said Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas. There's a whiff of it, a scent of it," Sohn said, pointing out that money market funds attracted more cash than equity funds last week.
Persons: Matthew Bartolini, Bartolini, It's, Oktay Kavrak, Todd Sohn, . Sohn, Kavrak, Sohn, Cathie Wood's Organizations: Vanguard, Big Tech, SPDR, Street Global Advisors, Microsoft, Nvidia, Nasdaq, RSP, Apple, Trust, Technology, Index, Fund, The Vanguard FTSE Locations: SPDR Americas, Europe
The rapid rise of a few already massive tech stocks this year is causing Nasdaq to make unusual adjustments to its popular growth index. The company announced on July 7 that it will do a special rebalance of the Nasdaq 100 Index , which will take effect before the market opens on July 24. The company said a special rebalance can be used to "address overconcentration in the index by redistributing the weights." While the index is already rebalanced on quarterly basis, Nasdaq tries to keep the five biggest stocks below a 40% combined weighting in one rebalance per year designated as the annual adjustment, according to the firm's methodology. The five biggest stocks appear to be over that threshold currently, according to the holdings of the Invesco QQQ ETF , which tracks the index.
Organizations: Nasdaq
SummaryCompanies JPMorgan gains on Jefferies' upgrade ahead of earningsMegacaps recover after dip ahead of Nasdaq 100 rebalanceFutures up: Dow 0.02%, S&P 0.11%, Nasdaq 0.16%July 11 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Tuesday ahead of key inflation data that could support a sooner-than-expected end to the Federal Reserve's rapid interest-rate hikes. "The big-cap Nasdaq index is going to adjust weightings vs. a full addition or deletion. Also, far more money tracks the S&P 500, which is why S&P 500 component changes get a lot more attention than Nasdaq 100 moves." The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) has shed 9% so far this year in the aftermath of the biggest crisis since 2008 that pummeled regional lenders. The sub-index is underperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX), which has notched a 14.9% gain.
Persons: Joshua Warner, Hogan, Jefferies, Johann M Cherian, Shinjini Ganguli, Arun Koyyur Organizations: JPMorgan, Jefferies, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal, Fed, Index, Treasury, Nasdaq Inc, Riley, Dow e, JPMorgan Chase, Zions Bancorp, Truist, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bengaluru
That compares with a 14.8% gain for the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX). Microsoft (MSFT.O), Apple (AAPL.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) combined account for 43.8% weight in the index, according to Refinitiv data as of Monday's close. The special rebalancing may be conducted at any time if the aggregate weight of companies, each having more than 4.5% weight in the index, tops 48%, according to Nasdaq. COULD THE S&P 500 FOLLOW SUIT? Apple and Microsoft are the only two firms with weight over 4.5% in the S&P 500.
Persons: Hogan, Cameron Lilja, Dow, Wells, Sam Stovall, Sruthi Shankar, Medha Singh, Bansari, David Randall, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: Nasdaq, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Riley, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Dow Jones, Tesla, Booking Holdings, Gilead Sciences, Devices, CFRA, Thomson Locations: Wells, Gilead, Bengaluru, New York
Market heavyweights dip ahead of Nasdaq 100 rebalance
  + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
July 10 (Reuters) - Shares of Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O) and other heavyweight companies dipped on Monday after Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ.O) said it would rebalance its Nasdaq 100 index (.NDX) to address the benchmark's "overconcentration." Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Amazon (AMZN.O) fell over 2%, while Microsoft and Tesla (TSLA.O) each slid more than 1%. Wall Street's most valuable stocks declined after Nasdaq said late on Friday it would carry out a "Special Rebalance" of the index to "address overconcentration in the index by redistributing the weights." The Nasdaq 100 includes 100 of the largest companies that trade on the Nasdaq exchange, and changes to the index will force investment funds that track it to adjust their portfolios and sell shares of companies that have their weight in the index reduced. Wall Street's most valuable companies have been among the biggest winners in the U.S. stock market's recovery this year, further increasing their weight in the Nasdaq 100, and also in the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) and S&P 500 (.SPX).
Persons: Tesla, Noel Randewich, Richard Chang Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nasdaq Inc, Tesla, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: U.S
LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - Unsure which way the cookie crumbles from here - investors are being tempted to drop the bond. The broadest measures of government and corporate bonds have just stuck in mud. Two-year government bond yields are soaring. With June U.S. jobs growth going up yet another gear, U.S. Treasury yields hit 16-year highs above 5%, German equivalents hit their highest in 15 years and British gilt yields scaled 2008 peaks. For all but longer-term pension and insurance funds or banks, bonds may be neither fish nor fowl for a while to come.
Persons: hasn't, Stocks, midyear underperformance, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: Global, Bloomberg U.S, Treasury, Bank of, JPMorgan, Europe, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson
When Xi Jinping ascended to the pinnacle of Chinese power a decade ago, he saw Vladimir Putin as a strong leader who shared his hostility to the Western-dominated international system. Mr. Xi referred to Mr. Putin as his “best, most intimate friend.”In the wake of the Wagner affair, Mr. Xi’s big bet on the Russian leader isn’t looking so safe. Mr. Xi cannot afford to abandon Mr. Putin altogether. If Mr. Xi is to achieve his strategic goal of surpassing U.S. strength around the world, he will need to rebalance his foreign policy to account for Mr. Putin’s vulnerabilities. That may mean stronger Chinese support for ending a war that has backfired so severely on the Russian leader and a potentially less confrontational Chinese approach toward the United States and Taiwan.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Xi, Mr, Putin, , Wagner, Xi’s, isn’t, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin’s Locations: Putin’s Russia, China’s, Russia, China, West, United States, Taiwan
The research arm of BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, shifted its view on Japanese equities to neutral from underweight. "We are looking for more evidence of corporate reform to support the enthusiasm for its equity markets that has gripped foreign investors so far this year," wrote analysts at BlackRock Investment Institute, in its mid-year outlook report last week. "It's not the case that we've already seen the completion of offshore investors' quite aggressive investment in Japan equity markets," said Nomura's chief equity strategist for Japan, Yunosuke Ikeda. "Now, a lot of asset owners have decided just not to invest in China any more, and that's made Japan the top dog in Asia." Many analysts and investors, though, consider the declines a healthy and necessary retracement before the next leg higher, with 35,000 often touted as a target for this year as slower-moving foreign investors start to buy in size.
Persons: Nomura, It's, Yunosuke Ikeda, Archie Ciganer, Rowe Price, Ciganer, that's, Warren Buffett, Vikas Pershad, Kevin Buckland, Ankur Banerjee, Junko Fujita, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Nikkei, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nomura Securities, Graphics, G Investments, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, BlackRock, China, Asia, Tokyo, Singapore
BlackRock's iShares launched two new defined outcome funds on Friday — the iShares Large Cap Moderate Buffer ETF (IVVM) and the iShares Large Cap Deep Buffer ETF (IVVB) . The moderate buffer fund is designed to shield investors from quarterly declines between 0 and 5%, while the deep buffer fund guards against quarterly drawdowns between 5% and 20%. Buffer funds saw a surge of investor interest in 2022, when their downside protection shielded customers from the bear market. Innovator has a wide offering of buffer funds, including a popular series of monthly funds that offer a 12-month investment horizon. BJAN YTD mountain The January buffer ETF from Innovator rallied in the first half, but not as much as the S & P 500.
Persons: BlackRock's iShares, Tim Urbanowicz, Urbanowicz, Phil Toews, Toews Organizations: Equity, Toews Corporation, JPMorgan
Australian home prices climb for fourth month in June
  + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/David Gray/File PhotoSYDNEY, July 3 (Reuters) - Australian home prices rose for a fourth consecutive month in June as a sustained squeeze on housing supply helped lift values nationwide, data showed on Monday. Property consultant CoreLogic figures showed national home prices were up 1.1% in June from the previous month, after bottoming in February and starting a sustained rise. Every state and territory capital except Tasmania's Hobart recorded higher prices for dwellings, according to CoreLogic. "A slowdown in the pace of capital gains could be a reflection of a change in sentiment as interest rate expectations revise higher," Lawless said. "Higher interest rates and lower sentiment will likely weigh on the number of active home buyers, helping to rebalance the disconnect between demand and supply."
Persons: David Gray, Tasmania's Hobart, CoreLogic's Tim Lawless, Lawless, Sam McKeith, William Mallard Organizations: REUTERS, ., Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Clovelly, Australia, Tasmania's, CoreLogic, New South Wales, Brisbane, Queensland
Chuck Schumer unloaded on the Supreme Court after a pair of 6-3 rulings on Friday. The top Senate Democrat called the body a "MAGA-captured Supreme Court." The cases were 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis and Biden v. Nebraska, respectively. "The ill-founded and disappointing decisions from the Supreme Court are a stark reminder that it will take a sustained effort to rebalance our federal courts ...," Schumer said. Schumer's past criticism of the Supreme Court has drawn more than just eyebrows.
Persons: Chuck Schumer, MAGA, , Joe Biden's, Schumer, Biden, Elenis, ProPublica, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Thomas, Alito, Mitch McConnell, McConnell, Barack Obama, Antonin Scalia's, Donald Trump's, Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, Neil Gorsuch, John Roberts, Roberts, Elena Kagan's Organizations: Democrat, Service, Biden, New York Democrat Locations: Colorado, . Nebraska, Nebraska
The shares are priced between S$7.202 and S$7.283 per share, the sheet shows, representing a 2.89% and 3.97% discount to the last close of S$7.50 on Wednesday. Temasek will continue to be a major shareholder in SIA with a 53.5% stake, according to Reuters' calculations. Citi is the sole bookrunner on the share sale, the term sheet showed. "We are committed to the long-term success of SIA and continue to maintain a majority stake in it," she added. ($1 = 1.3517 Singapore dollars)Reporting by Selena Li in Hong Kong and Yantoultra Ngui in Singapore, Editing by Louise HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Juliet Teo, Temasek's, Selena Li, Yantoultra, Louise Heavens Organizations: Temasek, Singapore Airlines, SIA, Reuters, Citi, Transportation & Logistics, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, SINGAPORE, China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong
Over the long term, stocks are the way to grow wealth, according to Bank of America. Some $5.43 trillion is in money market funds, as of the week ending June 21 , according to the Investment Company Institute. "That's another way of saying that the S & P 500 is one of the world's best wealth-generating machines ever constructed," she added. Further, financial crises tend to be followed by economic and earnings growth cycles, along with sustained price gains for stocks. "All of the above are powerful structural forces for future long-term earnings growth — and key reasons not to rebalance too far in the direction of money market funds," Sanfilippo wrote.
Persons: Lauren Sanfilippo, Sanfilippo, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Investment Company Institute . Retail
The risk of too great a concentration in big cap tech stocks is again back in focus. Many have been saying that a 5%-10% pullback is overdue, certainly for big cap tech. The correction may already be starting: many big tech names, particularly semiconductors, were down in the high- to mid-single digits last week. (market cap vs. country GDP) Apple $2.9 trillion France $2.9 trillion Source: Wells Fargo Microsoft bigger than Italy? "Using 1999 as our example, we wonder how much longer the current chart (Apple > France and Tesla > Taiwan) is sustainable," he writes.
Persons: Today's Russell rebalance, Wells, Chris Harvey, Harvey —, Russell, There's, David Faber, Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey, Tesla, Harvey, Dan Ives, Ives Organizations: NYSE, Nasdaq, Intel, AMD, Broadcom, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Wells, today's Tech, General Electric, Cisco, Walmart, Nokia, Pfizer, ExxonMobil, IBM, Citigroup, Tesla, Big Tech Locations: France, Italy, Mexico, Taiwan, Wedbush
China stares hard at its own lost decade
  + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, June 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China has good reason to hold back on unleashing big stimulus. The central bank has made small cuts to interest rates as everything from credit growth to exports disappoint. For President Xi Jinping, it’s a hard choice between short term gains and his long-term ambition to rebalance the economy. Even if it does issue such bonds, funds may be indirectly used to help poorer provinces repay debt. The Chinese government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after missing its 2022 goal.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, National Institution for Finance, Development, Wall Street, People's Bank of China, Thomson Locations: China, Beijing
Interest rates have broken the global wealth pump
  + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
Rising inflation and higher interest rates would appear to make matters even worse. In the United States, immigration and the offshoring of manufacturing has undercut the power of labour. Ultra-low interest rates proved the greatest wealth pump ever devised, loading the dice in favour of the financial elite. Since the turn of the century, when the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan reduced interest rates to a new post-war low, wealth has consistently grown faster than GDP. That’s where higher interest rates come in.
Persons: Leonard Cohen, Peter Turchin, “ cliodynamics ”, Clio, Turchin, Hong Xiuquan, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Clay Frick, , Donald Trump, ” Turchin, Alan Greenspan, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Times, Elites, Steel, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey, Thomson Locations: United States, France, China, Taiping, Japan
The headquarters of Grab Holdings Ltd., in Singapore. Grab Holdings Ltd., reported its latest earnings on Feb. 23, 2023. Singapore-based Grab Holdings is cutting over 1,000 jobs, its CEO said Tuesday, in a bid to manage costs and reorganize the company in a competitive landscape. This is the group's largest round of layoffs since 2020, when it cut 360 jobs in response to Covid-19 pandemic challenges. Even without layoffs, Tan said Grab is on track to hit breakeven this year on group adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Persons: Anthony Tan, Tan Organizations: Grab Holdings Locations: Singapore
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA rebalance into fixed income away from equities could be a market headwind, says Adam CrisafulliAdam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the latest economic data out of China, current market headwinds, and more.
Persons: Adam Crisafulli Adam Crisafulli Organizations: Vital Knowledge Locations: China
The continent-wide European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index rose 0.5%. The index gained 1.5% in the policy-packed week, its best performance in over two months. China-focused luxury stocks such as LVMH (LVMH.PA) and Richemont (CFR.S) gained nearly 3% each, boosting the broader STOXX 600. Defensive shares such as healthcare (.SXDP) gained 0.9%, and utilities (.SX6P) climbed 1.3% to a four-week peak. The STOXX 600 broke away from a restrictive 1% trading range that was seen for much of the past two weeks, as investors gradually start putting behind major central bank events.
Persons: Travis Perkins, DAX, Germany's DAX, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell, Hewson, Shreyashi Sanyal, Siddarth, Sohini Goswami, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: European Central Bank, U.S, U.S . Federal, Bank of Japan, Bank of, Britain's, Rheinmetall, Apollo Global Management, Claure Group, Thomson Locations: China, U.S ., Stockholm, Millicom, Bengaluru
An exchange traded fund built on an investing strategy popularized by Warren Buffett is proving its worth once again in 2023. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) has a total return of more than 23% year to date, according to FactSet, handily beating the S & P 500 and enhancing an already stellar long-term track record. MOAT 5Y mountain The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF has been a long-term outperformer. The Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) and iShares Core S & P 500 ETF (IVV) were the top two funds of the week, each bringing in more than $2 billion. Several large short-term bond funds saw outflows this week, including Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) .
Persons: Warren Buffett, FactSet, Brandon Rakszawski, Rakszawski, It's Organizations: Morningstar, Adobe, Bond, Federal Locations: VanEck, outflows
Today is expiration day, so expect a lot of volume. Two things happen today: the so-called triple witching, or the quarterly expiration of stock and index options and index futures, and the S & P 500 quarterly rebalancing, where additions and deletions to the S & P are done. The effect of the triple witching has been greatly reduced due to the tremendous growth of weekly and monthly options that have been big competition for the quarterly expiration. The S & P rebalancing will see Palo Alto Networks go into the S & P 500, and Dish Network relegated to the small-cap S & P 600. This is also the day when index funds — such as S & P 500 index funds run by Vanguard, State Street, iShares, etc.
Organizations: Palo Alto Networks, Dish Network, Vanguard, Apple, ExxonMobil, Meta, Nvidia Locations: Palo Alto, iShares, Chevron , Berkshire
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