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☆ Credit squeeze 'biggest threat' to economic outlook - asset managers
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Brittany Hosea-Small/File Photo/File PhotoPARIS, April 19 (Reuters) - The biggest threat to the economic outlook is a credit squeeze that has not finished filtering through the financial system, two senior asset managers told a European equities conference on Wednesday. For asset managers, hedge funds and traders gathered in Paris for the Tradetech equity trading conference, recession risks were a key talking point. Higher rates should be a permanent expectation, he said. Dhar said if credit conditions tightened enough, the U.S. would slip into a recession in the second half of the year. Harsher economic conditions and higher rates have changed priorities for asset manager portfolios, both said.

☆ ECB market rate bets: still some unfinished business for the hawks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Having firmly scaled-back rate expectations amid last month's market turmoil, investors no longer expect borrowing costs to stay higher for longer and are cautious about pricing in a deposit rate above 4%. The November 2023 ECB euro short-term rate (ESTR) forward rose to 3.65% on Wednesday, implying expectations for a deposit rate of around 3.75%. Citi meanwhile argued that the June ESTR or money market contract was less appealing from a hedging standpoint while markets were pricing a peak of 3.75%. bundfuturevolBut Bund futures volumes declined after March 15 as markets once more revised their rate expectations upwards. This means that the smaller the gap between the current benchmark rate and the expected rate, the lower the volatility, and vice versa.

☆ HSBC hits back at Ping An's fresh Asia spin-off proposal
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - HSBC (HSBA.L) has hit back at its largest shareholder Ping An's latest proposal to restructure the bank and separate its Asia business into a Hong Kong-listed entity, saying it would result in a material loss of value for shareholders. Europe's largest bank said in a statement published on Wednesday that it had had extensive meetings with Ping An, including around 20 meetings at a senior level, but there remained disagreement. HSBC said the structural reforms suggested by Ping An would undermine the bank's international business model and erode earnings, dividends and shareholder value. HSBC said it had evaluated Ping An's proposals "with an open mind", in an apparent reference to the Chinese insurer's claims in its own statement on Tuesday that the lender had refused to listen to its ideas. Reporting by Iain Withers; editing by Dhara RanasingheOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morgan Stanley, Deutsche and others raise UK rate-hike forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Simon DawsonLONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - A number of banks including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank on Wednesday revised upward expectations for further UK interest rate hikes as a second straight day of data suggested price pressures remain elevated. Previously, the bank had anticipated no change in UK rates next month. Hence, we now expect a 25bp hike from the BoE in May," Morgan Stanley UK economist Bruna Skarica said. Deutsche Bank said it also expects two more rate hikes from the BoE, taking the terminal rate to 4.75% in June. "Importantly, we now see risks to our terminal rate forecast skewed to the upside," said Deutsche Bank senior economist Sanjay Raja.

☆ Analysis: Rates shift gives European currencies fresh legs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But markets expect another 75 bps of European Central Bank rate hikes, with the deposit rate rising to a peak in the autumn. Expectations for higher official interest rates typically drag money market and government bond yields higher, attracting investor cash into a country and boosting its currency. "An interest rate differential that is flat between the two regions would be equivalent to a euro/dollar move up to around 1.20." TURNAROUNDThe Federal Reserve's relentless rate hikes sent the dollar to 20-year highs last year as other big central banks moved more slowly. "But interestingly last month has seen the pound stronger, because of limited spillovers and declining U.S. and European rate expectations."

Dan Izzo, founder of investment management company Blackbird Capital, said that though banks have been seen as a bellwether for U.S. earnings, markets today were different. Stock futures based on the S&P , Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up slightly around 0.1%. Upbeat earnings news from banks and large corporations may lessen the odds of rate cuts later this year, he added. At least eight top Fed officials are speaking this week, including three governors, and could generate plenty of headlines to move the dial further. EARNINGS KEYOther big U.S. names reporting earnings this week include Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N), Netflix (NFLX.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O).

The investors, who hold some Casino bonds maturing in 2026 and 2027, are seeking to move quickly before details of the tie-up are agreed, the sources added. Other debt being left out of the joint venture could have lower prospects to recover its full value. Casino does not require consent from bondholders to potentially push their holdings into the joint venture, according to two sources. Unrestricted status would allow the joint venture to potentially list on a stock exchange and receive capital from a third party. Casino and Teract said in a joint statement in March that discussions have already started with potential investors about providing the additional capital.

A broad measure of European shares, the STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), is trading at 14-month highs, taking this year's gains to almost 10%. James Rutland, a European equities fund manager at Invesco, noted that consistent outflows from European shares last year, when the energy crisis dealt the region a fresh blow, had left valuations at very cheap levels. A broad index of European stocks is trading at a multiple of 12.6, compared with a ratio of 18.1 for the S&P 500, according to Refinitiv data. This 5.5 point premium is above the five-year average of around 4 points, suggesting European shares look cheap compared to their U.S. counterparts. "This has broken European stocks out of their relative downward trend, so we don't think Europe is now a structural underperformer," he said.

☆ Take Five: How bad is it?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China and Britain release key economic data and officials from the Group of Seven nations talk climate goals. 1/ EARNINGS RECESSIONU.S. earnings season goes up a gear and the outlook is gloomy due to the regional banking crisis and the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in decades. Analysts expect Q1 S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from the year-ago period, Refinitiv I/B/E/S data as of April 7 showed. In a sign of which way the authorities want lending rates to head, smaller regional banks have already cut deposit rates. China GDP vs 1-year MLF rate4/ NO ALARMS, NO SURPRISESIt's a big week for UK data, with February jobs figures on Tuesday and March inflation numbers Wednesday.

☆ Dollar, stocks slip after Fed minutes spur recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Fed staff assessing the potential fallout of banking stress projected a "mild recession" later this year. But the minutes showed policymakers ultimately agreed to higher interest rates as data at the time showed few signs of inflation pressures abating. Money markets initially trimmed expectations for a Fed rate hike in May, pricing in a 65.2% chance of a 25-basis-point move, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) closed down 0.08%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.13%. The dollar fell with an index measuring the U.S. currency against six peers down 0.558%.

The inflation data came on the heels of last Friday's employment report, which showed a solid pace of job growth in March and the unemployment rate falling back to 3.5%. In Europe, stock markets rose after the U.S. data and the broad STOXX 600 index was last up 0.5% (.STOXX) and holding near one-month highs. BONDS UP, DOLLAR DOWNU.S. bonds yields fell after the CPI numbers. Rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yields were last down 12 basis points at 3.93% , while U.S. 10-year yields fell 6 bps to 3.37%. The dollar fell with an index measuring the U.S. currency against six rivals down 0.4% at 101.72.

☆ World stocks hope for Fed pause, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gold climbed back up above the key $2,000 per ounce level as the dollar came off Monday's peak, while oil prices rose despite Chinese inflation data pointing to persistently weak demand. Investors are eagerly awaiting U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The dollar index fell 0.244%, with the euro up 0.41% to $1.0904 and the yen weakening 0.12% at 133.78 per dollar.

The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.5 basis points to 4.043%. "We're just beginning to feel the pain of these much higher interest rates. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The 10-year JGB yield fell to as low as 0.445%, its lowest since April 4, after hovering at 0.465% in the previous session.

☆ World stocks cling to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

European stocks added 0.5% (.STOXX), U.S. equity futures pointed to a positive Wall Street open , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Markets price in a roughly 70% chance of a May hike, having last week priced such a move as a coin toss. Traders still price in rate cuts by year-end as the economic growth outlook weakens, exacerbated by banking turmoil. U.S. March inflation data on Wednesday could provide the next steer for markets on the rate outlook. U.S. Treasury yields edged down on Tuesday, however, , with rate sensitive two-year yields 4 bps lower at 3.96%.

☆ World stocks hold on to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

European stock markets opened broadly firmer (.STOXX), U.S. stock futures pointed to a positive open for Wall Street shares , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Friday's non-farm payrolls suggested labour markets remain resilient, boosting expectations for a 25 basis point (bps) U.S. rate increase in May. NEW BOJ CHIEFIn Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.57%, while MSCI's world stock index was up 0.3% (.MIWD00000PUS). U.S. Treasury yields edged down in European trade , with rate sensitive two-year yields last down 3 bps at 3.96%. Brent crude futures rose 61 cents, or 0.74%, to $84.81 a barrel, while U.S. WTI futures gained 68 cents, or 0.83%, to $80.41 a barrel.

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Banking sector turmoil has not dented demand for equities, with MSCI's world stock index up 7% so far this year. But under the surface, bad omens for world stocks are building. Central bank surveys show U.S. and European banks are already tightening lending standards, historically a predictor of dismal stock market performance. Credit tightening predicts poor stock market returns2/ MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWNRecessions starting in the United States tend to flow to the rest of the world and consequently global stocks. Seven mega-cap tech stocks were responsible for 92% of the S&P 500's first-quarter rise, Citi notes.

☆ Wall St ends lower, Treasury yields slide as data fuels recession jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 16, 2023. European shares edged lower as investors remained cautious, tilting toward defensive stocks amid economic uncertainty. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.16% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.45%. Emerging market stocks lost 0.10%. The dollar index rose 0.32%, with the euro down 0.47% to $1.09.

☆ S&P 500 dips, Treasury yields fall as weak data fuels recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 16, 2023. The Nasdaq joined the S&P 500 in negative territory, while defensive stocks helped keep the Dow modestly green. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.16% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.51%. Emerging market stocks lost 0.10%. The dollar index rose 0.32%, with the euro down 0.48% to $1.0899.

☆ S&P 500 dips, Treasury yields fall as soft data fuels recession worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.22% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.44%. Emerging market stocks lost 0.03%. Treasury yields slipped further, with the benchmark 10-year yield touching lows last seen in September as the weak data supported the notion of a "Fed pause." The dollar index rose 0.07%, with the euro down 0.25% to $1.0925. Gold prices briefly touched their highest level since March 2022 before reversing course after a spate of soft U.S. economic data.

☆ Stocks falter as economic worries nag, big rate hike lifts kiwi dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A stock broker looks at his screens at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoSummary Graphic: World FX ratesGraphic: Global asset performanceWorld stocks pull back from 7-week highsNZ dollar rallies after big rate hikeLONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - World stock markets stumbled on Wednesday as signs that the economic outlook is weakening spurred caution, while a bigger-than-expected interest-rate hike from New Zealand lifted the kiwi dollar. European stocks fell with the broad STOXX 600 index pulling away from Tuesday's one-month highs (.STOXX). U.S. equity futures dipped , and Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.6% in its biggest one-day percentage fall since mid-March. Weak U.S. economic data this week has exacerbated recession worries, taking the edge off recent stock market gains.

☆ Analysis: Rate rises pile pain on SME firms in U.S. and Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Chiara Elisei | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Summary SME vulnerability to rate hikes gone under radarUS, European credit conditions tighteningUK SMEs especially vulnerable -analystsLONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. and European small and medium-sized (SME) firms may be next to feel the pain of rapid interest rate rises, with analysts and investors warily watching for the impact of tighter credit conditions exacerbated by recent banking turmoil. In the U.S. the average rate that small businesses pay on bank loans rose from around 5% to 7.6% in 2022, and is likely to hit about 9.5% by mid-year, Jefferies analysts estimate. British SMEs, hurt by weak growth, double digit inflation and rising Bank of England rates, are seen as particularly vulnerable. "The Government needs to demonstrate that it is on the side of small businesses who are feeling stressed and under huge margin pressure," McTague added. HARD TIMESMeanwhile the rate of small business loan approval at big U.S. banks meanwhile fell in February for nine straight months and business loan approvals at small banks has also fallen, said online financing platform for small businesses Biz2Credit.

☆ Analysis: After extraordinary rally, bonds' fate now with bank stability and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Alongside that dash for safe havens was a rapid repricing of rate-hike bets as banking turmoil raised financial stability risks, fuelling the rally in government debt. But coming so soon after markets had positioned for bigger U.S. rate hikes to tame inflation, bonds swung wildly. March's sharp drop in two-year yields followed a 59 bps jump in February. Two-year Treasury yields are down 24 bps this quarter, their biggest quarterly drop since the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. The likes of JPMorgan, BofA and Morgan Stanley, expect Treasury yields to end 2023 lower; others such as Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas expect a rise.

☆ Signs of pain as easy cash era ends are growing
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - The easy-cash era is over and markets are feeling the pinch from the sharpest jump in interest rate in decades. Since late 2021, big developed economies including the United States, euro area and Australia have raised rates by almost 3,300 basis points collectively. Japanese, European and U.S. banks stocks, while off recent lows, are still well below levels seen just before SVB's collapse. Reuters Graphics2/ DARLINGS NO MOREAs the SVB collapse showed, stress in the tech sector can quickly ripple out across the economy. Reuters Graphics4/ CRYPTO WINTERHaving benefited from an influx of cash during the easy-money era, cryptocurrencies have felt pain as rates rose last year, then gained on recent signs that tightening could end soon.

☆ Banking turmoil means recession fears are creeping back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Here's what some closely watched market indicators say about recession risks:1/ CRUNCH TIME? Central bankers are closely monitoring the potential for banking stress, on top of lending conditions that were already tightening, to trigger a credit crunch. European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde has also said the market turmoil may help fight inflation. Reuters Graphics3/ BANK STOCK ROUTWorld shares down just 0.1% in March and still sitting on gains this year seem to signal little recession risk, but worries are mounting under the surface. Global bank stocks, which had outperformed the MSCI World Stock Index before the turmoil, are down nearly 15% this month (.dMIWO0BK00PUS).

☆ Deutsche Bank shares whipsaw after CDS blow-out
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON/FRANKFURT, March 24 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank shares (DBKGn.DE) dropped as much as 3.4% in Friday's premarket trade, after a sharp jump in the cost of insuring against the risk of default late the day before fuelled concerns about the overall stability of Europe's banks. Deutsche shares, which have lost a fifth of their value so far this month already, were last indicated up 0.9% in premarket trade on the Lang & Schwartz platform. They closed 3.2% lower on Thursday, while the bank's credit default swaps - a form of insurance for bondholders - shot up to 173 basis points from 142 bps the day before, according to data from S&P Market Intelligence on Thursday. This marks the largest one-day rise in Deutsche's CDS on record, according to Refinitiv data. Reporting by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Dhara RanasingheOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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