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Alpha capture strategies take inputs from sources like human traders, market data, sell-side research, and more and then use a systematic process to create a portfolio that is efficiently sized and hedged. CenterBook uses trading data from dozens of external firms to create its portfolios, while Norias will create its book off the ideas of its fundamental analysts. Meanwhile, Man Group is building out an alpha capture team within its AHL unit's special strategies team, a recent job posting states, and Squarepoint is doubling its team, finding external managers for its buy-side alpha capture program. "It is a way for them to increase their capacity and take in more assets," said Kevin Lyons, senior investment manager at Abrdn, about the largest platforms growing their internal alpha capture capabilities. AdvertisementThe alpha capture OGIt can all be tied back to the success of the original mainstream alpha capture strategy: Marshall Wace's TOPS, which stands for Trade Optimized Portfolio System.
Persons: , Marshall Wace, Doug Haynes, Norias, Basil Qunibi, Squarepoint quant Warren Touwen, Merrill Lynch, Squarepoint, Touwen, Kevin Lyons, Marshall, Anthony Clarke, Cameron Hight, Hight, it's, headhunter Organizations: Service, Business, CenterBook Partners, Research, Investors, AHL, TOPS Locations: Austin, Abrdn, London
Global mergers and acquisition activity will soar this year, and several names could benefit from the comeback, according to Morgan Stanley. The firm expects global M & A volume activity to rise by 50% this year compared to 2023. "We believe that a cyclical and structural rebound in M & A is coming," Morgan Stanley said in a note titled "Stocks with Elevated Likelihood of Receiving an Offer," which was released Monday. Morgan Stanley pointed out that 2021 to 2023 could have seen a drop of activity worth between $4 trillion and $11 trillion. Morgan Stanley said it has no information about M & A activity involving the companies.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Stephen Ju, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Health, Sarepta Therapeutics, Tenet Healthcare, Analysts, BMO Capital Markets, UBS, Hertz Global Holdings Locations: Europe
The broad market index has also posted gains in 16 of the last 18 weeks — something that, according to Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid, hasn't happened since 1971. However, some on Wall Street now fear the market may have overextended itself to the upside, clearing the way for a pullback from record levels. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky also noted there's a divergence never before seen in Big Tech. Volmageddon refers to a massive volatility spike in early 2018 in which the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) more than doubled to more than 50. Bottom line: A short-term pullback in stocks could take place soon, if history is any guide.
Persons: Jim Reid, hasn't, Chris Montagu, Citi's, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Apple, RSI Locations: Big Tech
A onetime commodities backwater, congestion trading has become a growing business in recent years as the demand for electricity and volatility on the power grid in the US has soared. The financial category, which includes specialized power-trading companies, banks, hedge funds, and large proprietary trading firms, dominates the market, in part because the physical power firms typically operate in only one or two regions. He launched three congestion trading teams for the firm, including in California and Texas after those states introduced congestion trading in 2008 and 2010, respectively. Citadel, along with Susquehanna International Group and Tower Research, has been involved in FTR trading since the market's infancy. Volatility has been increasing on the power grid, in part because of changing weather patterns, Jeev added.
Persons: Kumar Jeev, Jane Street, Richard Roseblade, who's, There's, Roseblade, Bill Clark, Jeev, DC Energy's Tyler Kuhn, DRW, California Al Seib, Brevan Howard, Jane, Stephanie Staska, Staska, couldn't, Joe Biden's, It's, Meredith Angwin, Angwin Organizations: Business, Capital, Midwest, Citadel, Tower Research, Yes Energy, Energy, Anadolu, Getty, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FERC, Nasdaq, York Stock Exchange, Nvidia, Johns Hopkins University, DC Energy, Wayfair, Squarepoint, Appian, Boston Energy, Susquehanna International Group, DC, Bloomberg, Commodities, Traders, Wall Street, Workers, GreenHat Energy, JPMorgan, Hill Energy Resource & Services, P, Grid, & $ Locations: Wall, East Coast, DRW, Susquehanna, FTRs, New York, Canada, Texas, Virginia, California, Berlin, Chicago, Oregon, California Al, Ukraine, Russian, Uri, Northern Virginia
Bank of America is now one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 Bank of America hiked its forecast after companies showed that profit margins have held up despite big swings in interest rates and inflation. The S & P 500 has rallied about 8% this year and scored consecutive record highs. Subramanian noted that the advance in the S & P 500 has been "stubbornly narrow," with four stocks driving 45% of the February gains. "We expect leadership to broaden as the gap between earnings growth of the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the S & P 500 begin to narrow," she said.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian Organizations: of America, BofA Securities, UBS, CNBC Pro Market, Survey, Bank of America
The sheer persistence of the equity rally, with the S & P 500 up 16 of 18 weeks and refusing to succumb to supposed late-February seasonal weakness, has converted the cautious. Still, by some lights, stocks' valuation is one of the better sentiment indicators, and by that measure the investment community is pretty enthusiastic. More simply, we continue to see elevated but not alarming P/Es in the S & P 500 broadly while the median P/E of the top 10 names in the index remains close to past peaks." Coming at a time when the S & P 500 is more than 13% above its 200-day moving average — pretty stretched — and we haven't had even a 3% pullback since October. The "right" cyclical sectors are leading (industrials and consumer discretionary in addition to tech), and the equal-weight S & P 500 is nosing toward its old high.
Persons: Scott Rubner, maven, Goldman Sachs, there's, it's, hustled, gunning, BofA's Savita Subramanian, Citi's Scott Chronert, Barclays Venu Krishna, Lori Calvasina, haven't, I've, We've, Stocks, Organizations: Micro, Dell Technologies, ARM Holdings, Bank of America, Barclays, Big Tech, Tech, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S
Here's a roundup of recent recession warnings from six experts:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEOAdvertisementThere's a long history of investors being caught off guard by sudden downturns, Dimon told CNBC this week. AdvertisementSteve Hanke, Johns Hopkins professorThe US economy is headed for a recession if history is any indication, Hanke told Business Insider this week. AdvertisementPaul Dietrich, B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist"We're still on the path to recession," Dietrich told Business Insider in a recent interview. AdvertisementJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO"I think recession is closer than most people think," Gundlach said in a recent YouTube video.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, There's, Dimon, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Zentner, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, We're, Dietrich, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, JPMorgan, CNBC, UBS, DoubleLine Locations: American, Russia, Ukraine, Israel
The Federal Reserve's rate-cut signal in December triggered a furious rally to record highs, unleashing animal spirits that are fueling similar speculative activities from the depths of the pandemic. "The animal spirits are reviving," Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Global Research, said in a phone interview. "Animal spirits, they don't necessarily start with the biggest animals in the jungle," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said by phone. To be sure, others believe the market rally has been justified by the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and the contribution it's likely to make to future corporate profits. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the U.S. stock market is not in a speculative bubble based on his criteria.
Persons: Bitcoin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Cryptocurrency, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Quincy Krosby, Ray Dalio Organizations: BofA Global Research, Nasdaq, GameStop, Palo Alto Networks, Research, LPL Locations: Nigeria, Argentina, Snowflake, YOLO, . U.S, U.S
Leading the way are health care, with 22%; tech, with 14%; and consumer products and financial services, tied at 10%. Kate Ryder is closing major gaps in women's and family health care with Maven. Michelle Zatlyn, co-founder and chief operating officer at Cloudflare, is giving companies AI tools to bolster cybersecurity and lower costs for vulnerable, critical infrastructure providers, including schools and local election systems. The Changemakers serve as a reminder that success is a result of leading in ways that are authentic. In the book she explored the concept of "reformers" — women working to fix broken systems.
Persons: Anat Ashkenazi, Eli Lilly, Svanika Balasubramanian, Bobbie, Laura Modi, Baby2Baby, Norah Weinstein, Kelly Sawyer Patricof, Alex Cooper, Tracee Ellis Ross, Naomi Osaka, Balasubramanian, Jessica Chang, Maayan Cohen, Kate Ryder, Maven, Monique Rodriguez, Jessica Berman, Kathy Hannun, Clara Shih, Michelle Zatlyn, Kristin Peck, Julia Boorstin Organizations: CNBC, U.S, RePurpose Global, rePurpose, Women's Soccer League, Dandelion Energy, cybersecurity Locations: Changemakers, Cloudflare
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe idea that the market is too expensive should be debunked, says BofA's Savita SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why she believes the big surprises this year could be better growth numbers and cyclicals taking a leadership position, state of the economy, and more.
Persons: BofA's Savita Subramanian Savita Subramanian Organizations: BofA Securities
2024 Changemakers: How CNBC chose the inaugural list
  + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Cnbc.Com Staff | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Members of the CNBC Changemakers Advisory Board gave us many ideas, telling us that transformative leaders, especially women, are those who commit to meaningful change. Here's how we did it:From October 3–November 17, 2023, CNBC conducted an open call for nominations for the Changemakers List. Next year, we'll choose a whole new list of 50 women, and it is entirely possible that many of those women were nominated this year. Qualitative scores were added to the quantitative score from round one, with each weighted equally (50% qualitative, 50% quantitative), and nominees were re-ranked according to their total scores. Ultimately, a data-driven, systematic process led to the creation of the Changemakers list, the first of many more to come.
Persons: we'll Organizations: CNBC, Advisory
In 2007, I became Monster.com's first chief diversity officer, then Walgreens' in 2012. Most recently I served as chief human-resources officer at Workhuman. When done right, DEI programs not only give companies a competitive edge but also can be the very means of mending a broken America. Unsurprisingly, the role of chief diversity officer became more popular during this time as CEOs and boards recognized that they needed a dedicated team with resources to prevent similar class-action settlements and public-relations disasters. Prior to serving as chief people officer for Workhuman, he was chief diversity officer for Walgreens and Monster.com.
Persons: unschooled, Monster.com's, meritocracy, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, ERGs, Charles Walgreen, Jim Crow, Rep, Robert B, Elliott of, Steve Pemberton Organizations: Walgreens, Revelio Labs, America, Commission, Texaco, Denny's, Nextel, Harvard, The Lighthouse Academy Locations: America, Elliott of South Carolina
AI researchers have struggled with hedge funds' culture around proprietary secrets, which goes against the open-source philosophy foundational to AI and academia. Some recruiters, including Michael Stover, are seeing double- and triple-digit growth in AI hiring among hedge funds and prop-trading firms. For heads of AI, he said, hedge funds are dishing out a minimum of $1.5 million in total comp. But perhaps the top reason hedge funds are interested in the technology is that AI capabilities are bait in the war for investing talent. It's one of the few large US hedge funds without an executive or centralized team dedicated to AI or machine learning.
Persons: Ken Griffin's Citadel, Li Deng, Deng, Ken, Ken Griffin, Michael Stover, Stover, ExodusPoint, Balyasny, Agni Ghosh, Stott, isn't, Sumeet Chabria, Conor Twomey, Tim Mace, Mace, May's Ghosh, it's, They're, Peter Finter, Finter, That's, Ghosh, you've Organizations: Microsoft, Business, Citadel, Milken Institute, Reuters, Millennium Management, Bloomberg, Balyasny Asset Management, Man, Bank of America, Wall, Wall Street, Tech, Google Locations: Chicago, Seattle, Beverly Hills , California, London, San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Wall
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon thinks there's a better-than-even chance that the U.S. is heading for a recession, though he doesn't see systemic issues looming. "The market is kind of pricing in a soft landing. Along with the elevated rates, markets have had to contend with the Federal Reserve rolling off its bond holdings, a process known as quantitative tightening. But they will play out and they will have an effect and in my mind I'm just kind of cautious about everything." Higher interest rates along with a recession could hit areas such as commercial real estate and regional banks hard, but with limited macroeconomic impacts, Dimon said.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, there's, Dimon, CNBC's Leslie Picker Organizations: JPMorgan, Conference, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, New York Community Bank, CNBC PRO Locations: Miami, U.S, Silicon
People working college-level jobs earn 88% more than those with only a high school education, the report said. AdvertisementMost underemployed graduates are in sales and office administrationFor graduates working high school-level jobs five years after finishing college, the most common occupations are clerk (1.09 million graduates), sales supervisor (1 million), retail sales worker (759,000), salesperson (611,000), and secretary (602,000). Health-related work, including nursing, had the lowest underemployment rate, with only 23% of graduates not working college-level jobs five years after finishing their bachelor's. About 27% of underemployed graduates eventually advance to college-level jobs in the next 10 years. Getting an internship in your field of study vastly improves your chances of getting a college-level job, the report said.
Persons: , they're Organizations: Service, , Glass Institute, Strada Education, Business Locations: underemployment
In the final week of February, Wall Street will strive to maintain its AI-fueled rally even as economic concerns linger and the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure is on deck. But many worry the writing is on the wall for these market leaders as economic and inflation risks linger. The 'lone cloud' of inflation The Fed's preferred inflation gauge will also be released in the week ahead. Investors are concerned that sticky inflation will mean that the Fed will hold onto its higher-for-longer interest rate policy. Next week will also be the final week of February, with stocks headed for another strong month of gains.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Patrick McDonough, Europe's, PGIM's McDonough, McDonough, Charlie Ashley, Dhaval Joshi, Joshi, Ashley, John Williams, TJX Cos Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Japan's Nikkei, Catalyst Funds, BCA Research, CPI, PPI, Dow, New, Dallas Fed, Fidelity National Information Services, Richmond Fed, eBay, Enterprise, Cruise Line Holdings, New York Federal Reserve Bank, York, Monster Beverage, Paramount Global, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Autodesk, Body, Hormel, PMI, Manufacturing Locations: U.S, Lowe's, Chicago, . Kansas, Michigan
Image Displaced Palestinians in Rafah, in southern Gaza, as smoke rises over the nearby city of Khan Younis last month. That figure could climb to 66,720 if there were outbreaks of infectious disease such as cholera, their analysis found. Their study considers deaths from traumatic injuries, infectious diseases, maternal and neonatal causes, and noncommunicable diseases for which people can no longer receive medication or treatment, such as dialysis. Dr. Checchi said the analysis made it possible to quantify the potential impact of a cease-fire in lives. The projected 6,500 deaths even with a cease-fire is predicated on the assumption there will not be epidemics of infectious disease.
Persons: Khan Younis, Bassam Masoud, , Francesco Checchi, , ” Dr, Checchi, Paul Spiegel, Spiegel, ” Patrick Ball, haven’t, Ball, Dr Organizations: Johns Hopkins University, London School of Hygiene, Hopkins Center, Humanitarian Health, Human Locations: Rafah, Gaza
While most of the market's attention has been on interest rates, the Federal Reserve is quietly getting ready to loosen policy in another respect as it prepares to slow down the shedding of assets on its balance sheet. Tapering down the roll-off could see the Fed reducing the caps in half, according to a projection from BNP Paribas. The QT program has resulted in a nearly $1.3 trillion reduction in total holdings, with the total balance sheet now standing at about $7.7 trillion. With confidence growing that inflation is easing, policymakers are looking to loosen up policy, albeit at a measured pace. So at this meeting, we did have some discussion of the balance sheet, and we're planning to begin in-depth discussions of balance sheet issues at our next meeting in March," Chair Jerome Powell said in his January post-meeting news conference .
Persons: Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, We're, Jerome Powell, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Evercore ISI, Fed, MBS, New York Fed, BNP Paribas, BNP
European Central Bank posts first annual loss in two decades
  + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Rain falls over the finance district and the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany. The European Central Bank on Thursday reported its first annual loss since 2004, following hefty payouts due to higher interest rates. The central bank said it will carry forward the loss on its balance sheet to offset against future profits. The central bank began quantitative tightening in March 2023. There is no institution in the economy which can cope with a temporary loss better than the central bank," he told CNBC by email.
Persons: Germany's Bundesbank, Holger Schmieding Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Swiss National Bank, CNBC Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Ukraine
Treasury yields shot up last year, and investors flocked to allocating to cash which have yielded around 5% or even more. Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Jim Caron believes the 10-year Treasury yield is very likely to hover between 5% and 5.5%. Caron, who is chief investment officer at its Portfolio Solutions Group, explained that historically, 10-year Treasury yields are "usually a good match" for nominal gross domestic product. How rising yields affect stocks But are rising yields bad for stocks, as commonly thought? "If yields are rising because the economy is running hot, and data and labor markets are stronger, the rising yields need not negatively affect stocks."
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jim Caron, Caron, CNBC's Organizations: Treasury, U.S . Federal, Morgan, Morgan Stanley Investment, Solutions Locations: U.S
Where markets go next may well depend on how Nvidia does after going forward. "The answer here will depend on NVDA," Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report wrote in a Thursday note. "The stock is at an all-time high ... and if it can hold (or extend) this rally ... it'll imply that tech can help lead this market higher." Nvidia and other artificial intelligence darlings, including Meta Platforms, powered the broader market last year, while other stocks underperformed. I'd rather take it elsewhere in something that hasn't had as much of a run as Nvidia has."
Persons: Tom Essaye, Essaye, Patrick McDonough, Solita Marcelli, Charles Ashley, hasn't, Said PGIM's McDonough Organizations: Nvidia, Revenue, Nasdaq, VanEck Semiconductor, Federal Reserve, Meta, UBS Global Wealth Management, Catalyst Funds
Walgreens has the dubious distinction of being one of the stocks that has had the shortest duration in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. At $22, Walgreens has the lowest stock price in the index, which traditionally would make it a target for replacement. "Since the indexes are price weighted, the Index Committee evaluates stock price when considering a company for inclusion. Right now, the highest priced stock, UnitedHealth Group , is more than 23 times the value of the lowest priced stock, Walgreens. Finally, one wonders how Uber executives feel about the decision to put them into the Dow Jones Transportation Index.
Persons: Dow Jones, Dow Industrials, Uber, CNBC's Robert Hum Organizations: Walgreens, Dow Jones, Alliance, Dow, UnitedHealth, Walmart, WBA, General, General Electric, U.S Rubber, GE, Dow Jones Transportation, JetBlue, Transports, Avis
Read previewThe city of St. Louis is giving out $500 a month to 540 families, and in just three months recipients say it's helped them pay off debts and their bills. In St. Louis, recipients were chosen from over 5,500 applicants. Advertisement"The main categories where we see spending is pretty much where we anticipated," Adam Layne, the St. Louis city treasurer, told Business Insider in an interview. They had to be residents of St. Louis, have a school-age child, and have had a negative financial impact from the pandemic. Layne said the guaranteed basic income program took about a year and a half of planning and coordinating with partners, including researchers at Washington University in St. Louis.
Persons: , Louis, it's, Adam Layne, Layne, St, Jack Dorsey's, St . Louis, Louisans Organizations: Service, Business, American, Washington University Locations: St, Louis, St .
China is tightening regulatory restrictions on its rapidly booming quant trading industry, after freezing the accounts of a major player in the sector for three days in a rare crackdown. The stock exchanges of key financial hubs Shanghai and Shenzhen issued notices late Tuesday announcing they will deepen their scrutiny of market trades conducted by quant funds — which use advanced computer-driven automated analysis and algorithms to catch opportunities in stocks and commodities — especially of leveraged quantitative products, according to separate Google-translated statements. The bourses will strengthen and expand the scope of reporting of such trades and improve the monitoring standards for "abnormal" transactions. The Shenzhen stock exchange also noted that "quantitative trading, especially high-frequency trading, has obvious technical, information and speed advantages over small and medium-sized investors." The announcements come after both exchanges implemented a three-day trading ban on one of China's largest quant funds, Lingjun Investment, which the Shanghai bourse accused of "affecting the security of the Exchange's system or normal trading order" with a flurry of transactions executed between 09:30 a.m. and 09:31 a.m. local time, according to a Google-translated statement.
Organizations: Lingjun, Shanghai bourse Locations: China, Shanghai, Shenzhen
Those options could be relatively cheap right now for some of the more vulnerable stocks, according to Goldman. "During normal market environments, the options market prices options efficiently based on trailing realized volatility. Our long-term studies have shown that Free Cash Flow is the most important fundamental metric to watch when estimating downside asymmetry," Marshall said in the note. To identify put option candidates, Goldman found stocks trading above the firm's price targets and low or negative free cash flow. That company reported a net loss of $116.6 million in 2023 , with free cash flow of just $7.9 million.
Persons: John Marshall, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Marshall, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Southwest Airlines, LUV, Tech, Intel, Southwest
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