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☆ CNBC Daily Open: Jerome Powell’s speech was hawkish. Investors' mood was bullish
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. That's what happened last week after Powell's press conference, when markets focused on his acknowledgement that a "disinflationary process has started." It appears the same thing occurred Tuesday after Powell's speech in Washington D.C.Analysts awaited Powell's speech with anxiety. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Powell’s speech was hawkish. Investors' mood was bullish
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. It appears the same thing occurred Tuesday after Powell's speech in Washington D.C.Analysts awaited Powell's speech with anxiety. And so, despite Powell's hawkish speech, investors were bullish. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Analysis: Rebounding yields could scuttle U.S. stock rally as Powell stays firm on rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 1.3% along with a 6 basis points rise in the 10-year U.S. benchmark Treasury yield . yields vs stocksHigher bond yields dull the relative appeal of stocks while raising companies’ borrowing costs. Higher Treasury yields can also weaken the valuations of equities in standard valuation models, particularly for tech and other companies that rely on future profits that are discounted at higher rates when yields rise. Meanwhile, some investors are not yet worried about the threat to stocks from yields. Jacobsen is bullish on growth stocks, which were squashed by higher yields last year but have staged a strong rebound in 2023.

☆ Supply-driven inflation will be stickier than expected, says Federated Hermes' DeNichilo
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSupply-driven inflation will be stickier than expected, says Federated Hermes' DeNichiloWilliam Lee, chief economist at the Milken Institute, and Stephen DeNichilo, Federated Hermes portfolio manager, join ‘Power Lunch’ to react to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s question-and-answer session at The Economic Club of Washington, D.C., this afternoon.

The fragile state of the American economy and the euro zone’s surprise resilience could leave the European Central Bank as the lone hawk among major rate-setting institutions. Investors can benefit from the split by favouring the euro and European equities. Yields on 10-year U.S government bonds have dropped by 17 basis points to 3.62%, while equivalent German sovereign debt yields 2.29% – 15 basis points less than at the start of the year. By November it could be down to 150 basis points. On Feb. 2 the European Central Bank increased its key rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%, its fifth successive hike.

☆ Renewed U.S. junk bond rally ignites hope for more stuck buyout debt
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

This exercise now has more impetus on expectations that junk bond prices will continue to rally in the wake of Powell's comments, which raised hopes of slowing rate hikes and a so-called economic soft landing. Junk bond spreads on average tightened 37 basis points on Wednesday, the day of Powell's remarks, from a day earlier, according to ICE BAML data. This is around the level in September when banks sold only about half of the total $15 billion of debt through a U.S. dollar bond, leveraged loan and a Euro-denominated loan. Reuters could not confirm the exact amount sold in these sales and balance of LBO debt still left with banks. Banks could consider selling larger parcels of LBO debt in the primary bond markets where there has been a surge in new issue supply, said the sources.

New York CNN —Thursday afternoon will round out what has so far been a sobering earnings season for the Big Tech giants. Alphabet’s revenue will likely remain flat from last year and Amazon’s sales are expected to grow just shy of 6% year-over-year. All three companies’ profits are expected to fall from the year-ago quarter, with Amazon set to suffer the steepest drop with a decline of 40.6%. Then came the press conference, which led to a steep divergence between what the Fed thinks and what the Wall Street thinks. A cautionary tale: In mid-November, Ticketmaster’s site overloaded when fans tried to purchase pre-sale tickets for Taylor Swift’s upcoming tour.

☆ The Michigan lawyer pushing Trump’s voter-fraud fictions in U.S. court
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +27 min

Lambert started in her home state of Michigan, joining four lawsuits on behalf of Trump supporters. As Trump zeroed in on vote-rigging allegations in Michigan, Lambert emailed the White House, according to her July 2021 video interview with two right-wing websites. Cotton and Penrose also were involved in examining breached voting machines in Michigan for DePerno and Lambert, according to the Michigan attorney general investigation. In the process, the commissioners were accused of flouting a court order by allowing a forensics company to inspect county voting equipment. In August 2021, a federal judge reprimanded Lambert, Powell and seven other lawyers who joined the failed lawsuit seeking to overturn Michigan’s vote after Trump’s 2020 defeat.

☆ ECB delivers fourth straight increase but slows pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

COMMENTS:FLORIAN HENSE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, UNION INVESTMENT, FRANKFURT”This is probably the most hawkish 50 basis points they could come up with. Everything I read in the statement press release sounds hawkish and maybe even “very hawkish” to me. However, core inflation momentum remains firm and the labour market tight.”MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, EUROPEAN ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON:“It (the ECB statement) is very hawkish. “The 50 bps hike was expected and the pace of QT (quantitative tightening) was in the ballpark of what folks were expecting. “Even though the ECB is now going at it a bit slower, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re also going to target a lower terminal rate.

☆ Jerome Powell’s Grim Inflation Outlook Is at Odds With Markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Greg Ip | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said he considers headline inflation a poor guide to underlying inflation. Falling prices of energy, automobiles and houses and soft readings on consumer prices have made investors borderline euphoric over the outlook for inflation. The Federal Reserve is having none of it.

☆ Jerome Powell’s Finest Hawk Feathers
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

If Federal Reserve officials are having second thoughts about their anti-inflation fight, you sure couldn’t tell by Jerome Powell on Wednesday. The Fed Chairman donned his finest hawk feathers and said again and again at his press conference that the central bank hasn’t made enough progress getting prices under control and isn’t going to ease up until it does. “We have more work to do.”

☆ Premarket stocks: Investors are hoping for the economic tide to turn. The wait may soon be over
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

What’s happening: Price increases in the United States cooled more than economists expected last month, recording the lowest level of growth since last December. This is the second consecutive month of moderating price pressures and could mean the underlying trend of inflation is finally decelerating. That’s a welcome and hopeful sign for consumers, policymakers and investors, said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. The bill specifically names TikTok and its parent, ByteDance, as social media companies for the purposes of the legislation. In the past two weeks, at least seven states have introduced such measures, including Maryland, South Dakota and Utah.

☆ What to expect from the Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Although that increase would be smaller than the three-quarter-point hikes announced at the past four Fed meetings, it’s nothing to scoff at. Yet Wall Street appears to believe the Fed will eventually be forced to pivot away from, or even reverse its regimen of rate hikes. The Fed will conclude its rate hike regimen by the second quarter of next year, predicted JPMorgan analysts in a recent note. A global problemThe Fed isn’t acting alone, it’s just one of nine central banks expected to make a rate announcement this week. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are expected to follow the United States with half-point moves of their own on Thursday.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead U.S. stock rally faces gauntlet of CPI data, Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The index has bounced about 10% from its October lows but remains down more than 17% on the year. Equities’ trajectory in the near future may depend on whether Tuesday’s consumer price index report shows inflation is responding to the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle since the 1980s. Hotter-than-expected data could bolster fears of more Fed hawkishness, pressuring stocks. A second helping of benign data could bolster the case for a peak in inflation and buoy equities further. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, investors are factoring in a half-percentage-point rate hike from the Fed next week, a step down from its recent series of three-quarter-point increases.

The S&P 500 is down 14.4% year-to-date. U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in October, supporting the view that inflation was ebbing. Further ahead, some of Wall Street’s biggest banks are now forecasting that the Fed's monetary policy tightening will bring on a recession next year. In options markets, traders appear more preoccupied with not missing out on more gains in stocks than guarding against future declines. The one-month moving average of daily trading in bearish put contracts against bullish calls on the S&P 500 index-tracking SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's options is at its lowest since January 2022, according to Trade Alert data.

☆ Mortgage rates fall for the third week in a row as inflation fears ease
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Mortgage rates dipped again this week, marking the third straight week of falling rates. Mortgage rates have risen throughout most of 2022, spurred by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of hiking interest rates in order to tame soaring inflation. But in the last couple of weeks, mortgage rates have tumbled following reports that indicated inflation may have finally reached its peak. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. Taken together with yesterday’s news from Powell, US Treasury yields fell, suggesting mortgage rates are likely to go in the same direction.

☆ Sterling at fresh 16-week high as dollar takes a beating
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Sterling rose to a near 16-week high against a broadly-soft dollar on Thursday, with currency traders looking past gloomy British manufacturing data for now. The pound was last up 0.8% against the dollar at $1.2157, its highest level since Aug. 12, breaching the previous high of $1.2153 touched on Nov. 24. Sterling was also 0.6% higher versus the euro at 85.865 pence per euro. Inflation in the UK is still running at a four-decade high as households grapple with a cost-of-living crisis. Money markets are fully pricing in a 50-basis-point rate hike at the BoE's Dec. 15 meeting .

☆ Powell’s inflation remarks are a ‘green light’ to stay in stocks, Jim Cramer says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Thursday said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's inflation remarks the day before confirmed that inventors shouldn't exit the market over recession fears. To me, that's a green light to stay in stocks." Nevertheless, reading the "Fed tea leaves" will continue to be critical for determining which areas of the economy will be crushed by the central bank's tightening and which will remain intact, according to Cramer. He called on Powell to crush speculative stocks that became inflated during the height of the pandemic and to discourage investing in crypto. "It is touch and go until we get some indication as to whether he'll be willing to declare victory after he crushes speculation, hoarding, profiteering and inefficiency without ruining the rest of the economy," Cramer said.

☆ Premarket stocks: Powell revives hopes of a Fed pivot. That's a bad thing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN Business —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made investors very happy on Wednesday. Powell’s admission that “the path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain” means that rate hikes could be here for a while. This isn’t the first time investors rushed into markets on the belief that there would be a Fed pivot. Powell said on Wednesday that there is still a chance the economy avoids recession but the odds are slim. But the labor market still remains historically tight despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool demand and bring down inflation.

☆ Federal Reserve chairman says a December rate-hike slowdown is possible
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

“It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. Powell said Fed estimates of inflation in October showed its preferred measure still rising at about triple the central bank’s 2% target. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed rate expectations, dropped to about 4.47% from 4.52%. In rate futures markets, traders added to the prevailing bets that the Fed would slow its pace of rate hikes at its meeting in two weeks. Bottlenecks in goods production are easing and goods price inflation appears to be easing as well, and this, too, must continue.” But “we will likely see housing services inflation begin to fall later next year,” he said.

☆ Dollar nears 3-mth low, shares climb after Fed tests the brakes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

For the currency markets, it meant the 7-week sell-off in the dollar continued. "The dollar could stay pressured for a bit longer, but it's probably embedding a good deal of Fed-related negatives now," analysts at ING wrote. Overnight, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.3%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) and South Korean shares (.KS11) both rose around 1%. In the oil market, prices were slipping toward a major support level established in September. Wednesday's post-Fed U.S. bond market moves had seen yields on 10-year notes drop to a huge 79-basis-point deficit relative to two-year yields.

☆ Fed offers more rate hike clues
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

At its November 2 meeting the Fed raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point — its fourth straight hike of such a large magnitude. But Fed chair Jerome Powell suggested at a press conference that the Fed may soon begin to slow the pace of hikes. The minutes from that meeting showed that several other Fed policymakers agreed with Powell’s assessment. The job market remains relatively healthy as well, although the most recent jobless claims figures ticked up from a week ago. But as long as the labor market remains firm and inflation pressures continue to ebb, the Fed will likely pull back on the magnitude of its rate hikes.

☆ What will the Fed do next? Follow the economy, not what Jerome Powell says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But Fed Chair Jerome Powell dashed those hopes during his press conference when he talked about how the Fed is still extremely worried about inflation. Here’s the thing, though: Investors are paying way too much attention to what Powell and other Fed members are saying about the economy and not focusing enough on numbers that show how the economy is actually doing. So much can change and there is always a constant flood of new data (and new speeches from Fed policy makers) to digest and parse. Keep an eye on that data more than Fed speeches and volatile interest rates futures. And the fed funds rate futures are going to keep changing based on what the latest economic reports look like.

☆ Jerome Powell’s Not for Turning—Yet
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

The cliché is that a central bank’s job is to take away the punch bowl, though not usually in 30 minutes. Yet that’s what happened Wednesday when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explained in his press conference that he really is staying the anti-inflation course, half an hour after a Fed statement had seemed to hint to the contrary. The Federal Open Market Committee increased its target range for the fed funds rate by 0.75 percentage points, to 3.75%-4%, as Mr. Powell had primed markets to expect. But investors cheered the FOMC statement, which said future decisions will account for “the cumulative tightening” achieved so far as well as “the lags” with which monetary policy operates. Wall Street has been searching for signs the Fed might start moderating the pace of rate increases or stop raising altogether, and it sounded like the FOMC was offering that hope.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNov 3 (Reuters) - Investors trying to navigate this year's relentless interest rate rises have more reasons to play it safe, after a pessimistic message from the U.S. Federal Reserve clouded the outlook for asset prices. Yet Chairman Jerome Powell’s message at Wednesday’s press conference – which followed its fourth straight 75 basis-point rate increase – did little to bolster the case for a less hawkish Fed. Investors are bracing for U.S. employment data on Friday for clues on whether the Fed’s rate hikes have begun to erode the economy’s strength. Signs that inflation is beginning to slow after the Fed’s barrage of rate hikes could bolster the case for a less aggressive monetary policy in coming months. Bartolini is becoming more bullish on mortgage-backed securities, which he expects to benefit from a decline in volatility sparked by smaller rate increases.

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