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What to expect from the jobs report on Friday
  + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Minneapolis CNN —Friday’s jobs report is expected to show that the US economy added 200,000 jobs in December, with the unemployment rate holding steady for the third-straight month at 3.7%. “The preponderance of evidence suggests that the labor market is still nowhere near back to normal,” said Julia Pollak, senior economist with ZipRecruiter online employment marketplace. Historically tightThe US labor market remains atypically tight — something that was reinforced Wednesday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for November. It showed there were still north of 10.5 million job openings, or about 1.7 available positions for every unemployed person looking for work. “But it’s unclear how far inflation can fall without the labor market deteriorating, or rather, it’s not clear what the underlying pace of inflation is with the labor market this tight.”—CNN’s Matt Egan contributed to this report.
It could be a sign the 2023 job market will launch on strong footing, economists say, even with fresh staffing cuts announced this week. Meanwhile, there were 10.5 million job openings, or roughly 1.7 vacancies per available worker. "In aggregate, layoffs are still way lower than pre-pandemic," Pollak says. As of November, job openings ticked up for professional and business services, as well as manufacturing, and hiring shot up in health care and social assistance. Even finance openings and information openings are up compared with February 2020.
Filadendron | E+ | Getty ImagesThe share of workers who quit their jobs jumped in November for the first time since last spring — and they're getting a big pay bump for moving, data shows. The labor market remains strong by historical standards, characterized by a high level of job openings and low layoffs. That translates to ample opportunity for workers, who generally get an increase in pay when they accept a new position. In other words, the average consumer lost buying power because rapidly rising prices for goods and services outstripped pay growth. Wage growth has moderated a bit from 2021, though remains strong relative to its pre-pandemic trend, Bunker said.
That’s more than the 10 million total job openings that economists were expecting, according to Refinitiv, and slightly lower than the upwardly revised October total of 10.51 million. The robust number of job openings remains “a testament to the resilience of demand for labor on Main Street, even as job openings tumbled on Wall Street,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist with ZipRecruiter, in a tweet posted shortly after the report was released. There were still about 1.7 job openings for each job seeker in November, unchanged from October, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job hiring inched down to 6.06 million in November from 6.11 million in October, according to the report. Layoffs fell to 1.35 million from 1.45 million, and the number of people quitting their job increased to 4.17 million from 4.05 million.
Wages have been going up this year, but so have prices — and prices are growing faster. Skyrocketing inflation has meant that a pay raise of 7.1% or below is essentially a pay cut. It's the time of year when annual raises come in, but if you didn't see a pay hike of at least 7.1%, you're effectively making less. But many workers haven't seen their real wages outpace inflation since 2021, even as they have more bargaining power than they've seen in decades. "If there are 100 chairs and 50 workers, workers are cool, man!"
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFor employers, the big issue in 2023 is employee experience, says ZipRecruiter's Julia PollakJulia Pollak, Chief Economist at ZipRecruiter, joins Worldwide Exchange to discuss her predictions for the labor market in 2023.
Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, told CNBC that there could be a "mild recession induced by the Fed." Here's what experts are saying about a recession in 2023Some Wall Street experts and economists think the US could avoid a recession next year, and that even if one comes, it will likely not be as severe as the downturns after the 2008 financial crisis and the early Covid pandemic. As Insider's Brian Evans reported, economists at Bank of America think there will be a mild recession too. While some think a recession is on the horizon, there's a chance that the US may not enter one at all. "I think we would need to see a significant deterioration in the labor market for me to think we're in a recession, and we have not seen any significant deterioration yet," Bunker said.
Recruiters and other experts tell Insider that tech workers are in especially high demand in sectors including insurance, healthcare, retail, government, and banking. As you may expect, the traditional tech industry remains the largest employer of tech workers, the experts say. ZipRecruiter's Pollak said the turmoil in Big Tech was pushing "some tech workers to explore opportunities outside" the usual suspects for the first time. Tech job creation and hiring numbers remain strong, but layoffs keep coming, underscoring a tech labor market in flux. As for how laid-off tech workers ought to position themselves for these jobs, the Hired Guns recruiter Hemming has some advice.
As the end of the year fast approaches, workers are looking ahead to 2023 with a sense of cautious optimism and hope. One-third of workers regret working too much this past year, according to Workhuman's report, while one-quarter regret not setting stricter boundaries at work. About 4% of workers are optimistic that work-life balance will improve in 2023, and 29% of workers expect that employees will be more vocal about their needs in the workplace. Nearly 21% of workers are also confident that their connections with colleagues will improve, while 10% of workers expect these relationships to worsen. When Workhuman asked employees to describe 2023 in one word or phrase, these bright descriptors topped the list: "new beginnings," "success," "comeback" and "work-life balance."
You could do worse than an exit package from Big TechNearly 150,000 tech workers have lost their jobs in 2022, according to the layoff-tracking platform Layoffs.FYI. But tech workers are not likely to be out of a job for long. 'Pent-up demand' for tech workers in healthcare, defense, and bankingMost of the job growth for tech workers is in other industries, the Dice report found. The unemployment rate for the tech industry is hovering around 2%, according to an analysis by CompTIA, an industry association. "The arms race between tech companies on comp and benefits is over."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWorkers now have better job security than pre-pandemic, says ZipRecruiter's Julia PollakJulia Pollak, Ziprecruiter chief economist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the 'white collar' recession and the state of the labor market.
ZipRecruiter, another job site, found a fourfold increase in job listings mentioning remote work, to a 12% total share. In all, remote work translates to roughly 4% more hours worked during a 40-hour week. "People really, really want remote work," Pollak said, adding: "It's difficult to put the genie back in the bottle." 'Significant variation' in remote work opportunitiesThat said, most jobs in the U.S. economy can't be done remotely. People really, really want remote work.
Within weeks, mass layoffs primarily in tech, including at Twitter, Meta, Amazon, Salesforce, HP, Lyft, Doordash and more, have flooded headlines. And after the Great Resignation and quiet quitting rocked the market, the new era of "loud layoffs" is having an outsized impact on how people feel about their jobs. Why tech layoffs have a chilling effect: It's 'wrapped up with our economic aspirations'Even though they've been concentrated so far, tech layoffs do have an outsized effect on worker sentiment. "The tech industry is wrapped up with our economic aspirations as Americans. The tech industry is wrapped up with our economic aspirations as Americans.
Retailers are entering the holiday season amid a swirl of mixed economic signals. That leaves companies expecting another busy shopping season as they continue to grapple with a competitive job market. Before the holiday hiring rush, retailers were already looking to fill 800,000 open positions, according to the retail federation. There are some signs though that the labor market is starting to shift in employers' favor. "This speed is imperative during holiday hiring," John Patterson, Macy’s vice president of talent, said in an email.
While the prospects of finding a new job might seem grim right now given the recent headlines of layoffs and hiring freezes sweeping through the tech sector, there are reasons to be optimistic. Hiring remains strong despite recession fears, according to the Labor Department's latest jobs report — and employers are still adding 60% more jobs each month than before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollak told CNBC Make It. The remote job market is still thriving, too: New research from Ladders shows that companies across tech, media, health care and other industries are increasingly hiring for a variety of roles that can be done from home and offer six-figure salaries. To examine where remote hiring is happening the most for high-paying jobs, Ladders identified the top 20 occupations with the highest number of remote job openings on their site between Aug. 31 and Nov. 1 that pay more than $100,000. Here are some of the top remote jobs employers are hiring for that pay six figures, according to Ladders:
Tens of thousands of tech workers have been laid off within days, as tech giants including Meta, Twitter, Salesforce and others shed headcount going into the final stretch of the year. At least 20,300 U.S. tech workers were let go from their jobs in November, and more than 100,000 since the beginning of the year, according to Layoffs.fyi, which tracks layoffs in the field. The latest economic volatility disproportionately affects tech and could impact other downstream industries, Pollak adds. How tech layoffs could impact the economyTech sector cuts will have a ripple effect: Fewer companies prepare to go public, so investment banks take a hit. Hiring is still strong despite economic headwinds, according to the Labor Department's latest jobs report, and Pollak says employers are adding 60% more jobs each month than prior to Covid.
The job market remains stronger than expected despite ongoing recession fears and seemingly constant news of mass layoffs. Job openings rose to 10.7 million in September, according to the Department of Labor's latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, after a dip in August that economists said could kick off a downturn in the labor market. But there are still nearly two job openings for every available worker. One the one hand, the health-care industry is "growing by leaps and bounds" with more than 2 million job openings. "Huge companies are winning the war for talent and consolidating the labor market, with mid-sized companies unable to compete," Pollak says.
Job openings totaled 10.7 million, up from a revised 10.3 million in August, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday. Economists had projected job openings would drop to 10 million in September, according to estimates on Refinitiv. Accommodation and food services saw the largest number of new jobs, along with health care and social assistance; and transportation, warehousing and utilities, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. Layoffs decreased to 1.3 million from a revised 1.5 million. “Job seekers and employers both feel it.”This story is developing and will be updated.
"I think our biggest problem, at least for the foreseeable future, is high inflation," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNBC. The Fed can raise interest rates to slow inflation, which ultimately makes the cost of borrowing higher for everyday Americans, and that can be just as painful as inflation. Fiscal policy enacted by Congress and power wielded by big business can help fight rising costs. "Congress has much more targeted tools," Claudia Sahm, former Fed economist, told CNBC. Watch the video above to learn more about how corporations and Congress influence inflation, why the Fed doesn't have to take on rising costs alone and what it will take to normalize the U.S. economy.
According to Pollak, "the overall trend is back towards less turnover in the labor market, higher retention numbers." At the industry-level, the quit rate in construction slipped to 2.0% after two consecutive months at 2.7%. The quit rate for professional and business services, for instance, increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2%. There were 10.7 million job openings in September according to Tuesday's release. But while a lot of job openings might seem like a good thing for the economy, it could spell danger ahead.
While a downturn isn't inevitable, many economic forecasters believe it's just a matter of time before a recession hits. While no job is completely immune to economic headwinds, some industries tend to fare worse than others during a downturn. CNBC Make It asked three economists which industries they expect will be the most vulnerable during the next economic downturn. "The risk of a recession is real, but I think there's also a really good chance we don't have a recession at all." Check out:Here's how you can recession-proof your career, according to one CEOThe 4 most 'recession-proof' industries to work in, according to economists5 recession-proof jobs with 'consistently high' demand, according to economistsSign up now: Get smarter about your money and career with our weekly newsletter
Millions of Great Resignation quitters traded up into higher-paying jobs. More than half (56%) of people who started a new, better-paying role in the last year are worried about their job security, according to financial services company Bankrate, which surveyed 2,458 U.S. adults in August. 'Last one hired, first one fired'A vast majority of U.S. CEOs (91%) believe we're headed toward a recession, according to a recent KPMG survey of 1,325 CEOs. At some companies, marketing budgets, human resources employees and contract workers are often the first to go, Foster notes. What you should do if you're worried about your job security
But big retailers might be slower to add temporary help this holiday season than in years past. Despite an eagerness for holiday work, economists from various career sites agree that seasonal hiring doesn't look so hot this year. For instance, Macy's is planning to hire fewer seasonal workers this year compared to last year, as Insider's Avery Hartmans reported. Target has a similar hiring goal as last year; it plans to hire up to 100,000 seasonal workers. Did you apply for a holiday hiring position because of economic reasons?
More than a third of Americans want less immigration, but more could actually help cool inflation. Letting more people move to and work in the US could close that gap and ease inflation without a severe recession. While many Americans view immigration as a threat to the country's financial well-being, data continually suggests that the opposite is true. There remain some 10.1 million job openings but only about 5.8 million workers available to fill them. Increased immigration, then, provides a rare chance to rebalance the labor market and drag inflation lower without driving millions of Americans out of work.
Fewer job openings may sound bad, but in this moment it's a good sign for the economy. But chairs started being pulled away at a much faster pace in August, which could give job seekers a wake-up call. "If there are 100 chairs and 50 workers, workers are cool, man!" Companies are putting up record job openings, but they're not saying when — or even if — they'll fill them. That's frustrated some job seekers as they apply to multiple roles and never hear back.
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