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A soft landing would greatly boost small caps since they're economically sensitive, meaning they tend to thrive in expansions and fall during contractions. Marcelli also made note of smaller companies' weaker balance sheets, though those are arguably accounted for in valuations. With that said, those positive forces appear to be intact, so small caps could finally break out. Instead of selling AI chips or products, smaller companies can enhance their productivity by using the technology, the strategy chief said. 5 sectors where small caps can thriveWithin small caps, Temple said he's less focused on what sector a company falls into and more concerned with whether that firm is financially healthy.
Persons: haven't, Russell, Marcelli, Ronald Temple, Temple, couldn't, there's, Jack Janasiewicz, Janasiewicz, he's, you've, I'd, they've Organizations: Business, Yahoo Finance, UBS Global Wealth Management, Lazard Asset Management, Temple, Reserve, Savings, Nvidia, Devices, Microsoft
Wall Street is headed into the thick of earnings season, with results on deck from the bulk of the so-called Magnificent Seven names. On top of that, the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision and the January jobs report will be in focus. Federal Reserve meeting Investors aren't anticipating much out of the Fed meeting next week. Market participants say recent reports show the trends have been going in the right direction, and Friday's report is expected to confirm the softening in the jobs market. Other significant earnings in the week ahead include Boeing , a major Dow component.
Persons: Russell, we've, Shannon Saccocia, Jonathan Krinsky, Tesla, that'll, Hogan, you've, John Bailer, Jerome Powell, Tony Welch, Welch, FactSet Organizations: Microsoft, Nvidia, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, JPMorgan, Riley Securities, Newton Investment Management, Fed, PCE, Boeing, Alaska Airlines, Dallas, Whirlpool, Petroleum, United Parcel Service, General Motors, Pfizer, Devices, ADP, ECI Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Labor, PMI, Manufacturing, Apple, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: Thursday's, nonfarm payrolls, Chicago, Royal Caribbean, Michigan
ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down by around 3.7 basis points at 4.1050% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped 3.7 basis points to 4.3418%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday morning as investors brace themselves for two key pieces of economic data in the second half of the week. Two significant pieces of economic data are on the slate this week: a preliminary fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth figure is due on Thursday, followed by the Commerce Department's closely watched personal consumption expenditures price index for December on Friday. Both data points will inform the Federal Reserve as it maps out when and by how much to begin cutting interest rates, which will be a key factor in determining the path of markets and the economy this year. Auctions will be held for $60 billion of 17-week Treasury bills, $61 billion of 5-year notes and $28 billion of 2-year FRNs (floating-rate notes).
Persons: Jim Reid, Bullard, Reid, that's Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Commerce, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank's, Global, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, St Louis Fed, PMI
A flag of Japan flies near cargo containers at Tokyo's Odaiba Waterfront on August 6, 2020. Asia-Pacific markets are largely set to rise as investors monitor economic data out of Japan as well as factory activity data from Australia. Japan will release its December trade data and see private surveys from the au Jibun bank on its January purchasing managers index, a day after the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. Australia also saw flash PMI surveys from Juno Bank, which showed an expansion in manufacturing activity in January after 11 straight months of contraction. Business activity in the country also saw a softer contraction in January compared to December.
Organizations: Bank of Japan, Juno Bank Locations: Japan, Asia, Pacific, Australia
European markets are heading for a positive open Wednesday as investors look ahead to preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) data from the euro zone in January. The composite services and manufacturing PMI data will give investors a gauge of business activity in the single currency area, ahead of the European Central Bank's next meeting on Thursday. Overnight in Asia-Pacific markets, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index surged almost 2%, powered by tech stocks as other regional markets mostly fell. U.S. stock futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed Wednesday morning after Netflix reported its subscriber count reached a record in the fourth quarter.
Organizations: European Central Bank's, Netflix Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S
Gold slips as strong U.S. data dampens Fed rate cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices have increased since the Ukraine War but have soared to record highs since the start of the Hamas-Israel war. Other factors are the weakening US dollar and expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Gold prices inched lower on Wednesday as strong U.S. economic data doused hopes for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while investors awaited a slew of economic reports this week. "Recent economic data out of the U.S. has called for some recalibration in dovish market rate expectations, with some pushback on the timeline for Fed rate cut weighing on gold's appeal," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. Traders are pricing in five quarter-point Fed rate cuts in 2024, down from six cuts two weeks ago.
Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Rong Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Traders, Fed Locations: Birmingham, England, Ukraine, Israel, dovish, U.S
Here are Tuesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Cantor Fitzgerald initiates Nvidia as buy Cantor said in its initiation of Nvidia that the stock is a top pick at the firm. Bank of America adds Apple to the US1 list Bank of America added the stock to its top picks list. TD Cowen upgrades Exxon to outperform from market perform TD says shares of Exxon are "compelling." Oppenheimer initiates Flywire as outperform Oppenheimer initiated the payments company with an outperform rating and said Flywire is a growth stock. Guggenheim reiterates Tesla as sell Guggenheim says it's sticking with its sell rating on Tesla heading into earnings on Wednesday.
Persons: Cantor Fitzgerald, Cantor, it's, TD Cowen, Wells, Jefferies, Enphase, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, JMP, SIRI, Oppenheimer, Flywire, JPM, Philip Morris, Morgan Stanley, Evercore, Guggenheim, Tesla, Roth, Boston Beer, Stephens Organizations: Nvidia, Citi, Meta, Bank of America, Apple, Apple Inc, Chevron, Exxon, ENPH, JPMorgan, NRG Energy, Liberty, Liberty Media, Brands, UBS, Duke Energy, AEP, Guggenheim, Boston Beer, Boston Locations: North Carolina, underperform, OW
Gold holds steady as traders anticipate US economic data
  + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spot gold edged 0.1% lower to $2,026.39 per ounce by 0348 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,028.00. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March have dropped to 49% from about 71% two weeks ago, according to LSEG's interest-rate probability app IRPR. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.1%, while yields on benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury notes slipped from a more than a month high to 4.1111%. Spot silver fell 0.2% to $22.55 per ounce, platinum was steady at $898.95, and palladium fell 0.1% to $945.88.
Persons: Matt Simpson Organizations: Federal, U.S, PMI Locations: Singapore, U.S
America's hottest reusable water container has a sustainability problem. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. On TikTok, influencers are showing off their shelves full of Stanley Tumblers, each in different colors. For one, as CBC News pointed out, Stanley does not offer any product recycling options. PMI Worldwide, the parent company of Stanley, did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider sent outside regular business hours.
Persons: Stanley tumblers —, Stanley Quencher H2.0, Stanley, Stanley Tumblers, Katie Notopoulos, Jessica Heiges, WSP, Heiges, Myra Hird, " Hird, Kathryn Coduto Organizations: Service, Business, CNBC, Wired, CBC, Queen's University, Boston University, PMI, Business Insider
The S & P 500 rallied more than 1% on Friday, above both its closing and intraday records that it last reached in January 2022. "Meaning that when a major index like the S & P 500, like the Nasdaq 100, reaches a new all time high, what it does is, it clears the charts of resistance." For 2024, Wald anticipates the S & P 500 will end the year at the 5,400 level, representing a roughly 12% rise from Friday's close of 4,839.81. Inflation data, earnings ahead Next week will also bring the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for December, which is expected to confirm the recent trend of easing inflation. Leading Indicators Tuesday Jan. 23 10 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (January) Earnings: General Electric , Synchrony Financial , D.R.
Persons: it's, Katie Stockton, we've, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, Dow Jones, That's, Dave Sekera, Sekera, Jan, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Lockheed Martin Wednesday Jan, Kimberly, Clark, Northrop Organizations: Fed, Nasdaq, Morningstar Research Services, Richmond Fed, Synchrony, Raytheon Technologies, Verizon Communications, Halliburton, Johnson, Procter, Gamble, Lockheed, Lockheed Martin Wednesday, PMI, SA, PMI Manufacturing SA, PMI Services SA, Abbott Laboratories, Chicago, New, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Northrop Grumman, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Comcast, PCE, Norfolk, American, CNBC Locations: Stockton, U.S, Horton, Freeport, McMoRan, . Kansas
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.30 million job openings in October. Job openings decreased by 168,000 in the finance and insurance industry, while real estate, rental and leasing had 49,000 fewer positions. The job openings rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.6% in September. "The current state of the labor market suggests no further recalibration is necessary to bring the labor market back into balance," said Nick Bunker, director of economics research at Indeed Hiring Lab. They also described the labor market as remaining "very competitive," and "trying to get to full staff levels."
Persons: Brian Snyder, Rubeela Farooqi, Nick Bunker, Conrad DeQuadros, November's, Bill Adams, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, Labor, Survey, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Brean, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, United Auto Workers, UAW, Comerica Bank, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, White Plains , New York, South, Midwest, New York, East, Dallas
The findings present a mixed picture of the vast services sector as an official survey last week showed the sector unexpectedly contracted for the first time since December last year, prompting calls for more stimulus measures. "Both services supply and demand expanded, as the market continued to heal," said Wang Zhe, economist at Caixin Insight Group. Analysts say the different survey sizes and composition of surveyed companies might explain the discrepancy between the Caixin and official PMI readings. Caixin/S&P's composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, grew to 51.6 from 50.0 in October, marking the strongest reading since August. According to the Caixin services survey, employment fell for the first time since the start of 2023 as some firms maintained a cautious approach to hiring.
Persons: Wang Zhe, Wang, Louise Loo, spender, Loo, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: P Global, Caixin Insight, PMI, Oxford, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, October's, China
Morning Bid: RBA holds and the dollar pauses, too
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Pedestrians walk past the main entrance to the Reserve Bank of Australia building in central Sydney, Australia, October 3, 2016. The relative U.S. interest rate outlook right now fits the weaker dollar narrative - futures markets are pricing in bigger rate cuts by the Fed next year than by any other major or emerging market central bank. But will the Fed cut rates by 125 basis points next year? Doubts about that prospect have for now put the brakes on dollar selling. Gold , which shot to a record high in Asia's notoriously thin morning hours on Monday, has recoiled sharply.
Persons: David Gray, Tom Westbrook, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Bank, Aussie, Fed, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, U.S, Europe, Tokyo
Close up of Chinese Yuan notes, with Mao Tse-tung Peter Dazeley | The Image Bank | Getty ImagesChina's recent policy support is aimed at fixing its system and shouldn't be seen as economic stimulus, according to Societe Generale's Asia chief economist and head of research. PMI divergenceExpansion in China's services sector climbed to its strongest since August, a private survey on Tuesday showed. However, the private survey diverged from China's official PMI. The moderating manufacturing PMI and contracting services PMI, along with other November data point to the fragility of the Chinese economy and a faster deceleration of growth momentum last month, they added. The official PMI includes more companies engaged in heavy industries compared with the Caixin PMI, which covers more consumer-focused firms, Barclays economists said.
Persons: Yuan, Mao Tse, Peter Dazeley, Wei Yao, Yao, Jian Chang Organizations: Bank, Getty, Societe Generale's, CNBC, Economic Work Conference, China Communist, PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, Barclays Locations: Societe Generale's Asia, China
A waiter picks up the terrace of the Zurich bar at Placa de Catalunya in Barcelona, Spain April 4, 2023. A PMI for the services sector rose to 48.7 from October's 47.8. "The sombre outlook is reinforced by the fifth consecutive monthly shrinkage in new business. An index measuring new business - a gauge of demand - was below 50 for a fifth month although it did rise to 46.7 from 45.6. The composite future output index rose to 56.0 from 55.6.
Persons: Nacho, Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: Placa de, REUTERS, P Global, PMI, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Thomson Locations: Zurich, Barcelona, Spain, October's, Hamburg
(Photo by Ed JONES / AFP) (Photo by ED JONES/AFP via Getty Images)Most Asia-Pacific markets were set to fall ahead of a slew of economic data from across the region. South Korea's overall inflation rate in November fell to 3.3%, compared with 3.7% expected by a Reuters poll. The inflation rate for Japan's capital, Tokyo, came in at 2.6%, down from the 3.3% in October. Tokyo's inflation figures are widely considered to be a leading indicator of national trends. Caixin and S&P Global will also release China's service purchasing managers' index today, while private PMI readings will also be out from Hong Kong and India.
Persons: Ed JONES, ED JONES Organizations: Getty, P Global Locations: Seoul, AFP, Asia, Pacific, South, Tokyo, Hong Kong, India
Morning Bid: Buoyant markets hold near year's highs
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. Fed futures markets think a first cut may come as soon as March - with a quarter-point easing by then already two-thirds priced. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lowest since June on Friday and 10-year yields their lowest in three months, although they edged higher on Monday. U.S. crude hit its lowest in two weeks and is tracking year-on-year losses of almost 10%. But that is widening into yearend as peak rate hopes encourage some rotation to smaller cap stocks.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Powell, Goldman Sachs, Jan, Fitch, Bitcoin, Christine Lagarde, Joann, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Spelman College, Fed, Tech, HK, Central Bank, Treasury, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Atlanta, Europe, Gaza, China, Hong Kong, WuXi, Evergrande, RGC Resources
Historically, November is the best month of the year for the stock market, and December is third, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Under the surface this week, we also saw signs of a possible market rotation in the works. Rotation watch : We must look to next week's trading for confirmation that we're in the grips of a rotation or simply a head fake. Signs of the former were on display this week as the two of the biggest sector winners of the year, communication services and technology , trailed the market. Jobs, jobs, jobs : The most important release of the week comes Friday in the form of the November nonfarm payrolls report.
Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Locker, it's, Hock Tan, We'll, Joann, JOAN, JM Smucker, OLLI, Campbell Soup, Brown, Forman, LULU, Smith, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Wall, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Cisco Systems, VMWare, Club, PMI, Labor, Signet Jewelers, SIG, Brands, Toll, Thor Industries, Natural Foods, GameStop, Vail Resorts, MTN, Smith & Wesson, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Asana, ASAN, New York City
Morning Bid: Markets wary Powell may undermine rate-cut bets
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. The disconnect between financial markets and central banks has only deepened as central banks push back against talk of rate cuts while markets take in the relatively more benign inflation data of recent weeks. That helped to embolden markets to take on rate-cut bets. Markets are now pricing in a 46% chance of the central bank cutting rates in March, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Speakers: Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Waller, Powell, Elon Musk, Megan Greene, Christine Lagarde, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Ankur, Fed, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Europe, Asia, France, UK, Germany, Singapore
A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. Markets are now fully pricing a rate cut by the May meeting with almost a 50% chance they move in March, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Reuters GraphicsThe 10-year yield is down around 15 basis points and on Thursday hit its lowest level in 2-1/2 months at 4.247%. On Wednesday, the dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, touched its lowest level since Aug. 11 and dropped over 3% last month, its worst month in a year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samuel Indyk, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Christopher Waller, Europe's, Fed's, Fed's Cook, ECB's, Fitch, Toby Chopra Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, COVID, P Global, PMI, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, France, Greece, Ireland, DBRS, Germany, Spain
Wall Street will endeavor to keep the November momentum going in the final month of 2023, as investors look for a broadening out of the rally that has been dominated this year by a handful of tech names. It also marked the best monthly performance for the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite since July 2022. While the S & P 500 cap-weighted index climbed more than 18% this year, the equal-weighted index is up by just over 4%. They highlight the attractive relative valuation of value stocks compared to growth stocks, as well as the significant underweighting of value names in portfolios by traders. And the question is, is it going to be in 2024, is it going to be 2025 or in 2026?
Persons: Stocks, Hogan, Olivier Sarfati, GenTrust's Sarfati, Carlos Asilis, Asilis, FactSet, nonfarm payrolls, They're, TK, Nonfarm Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Riley, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Expedia, Paramount Global, Russell, Glovista Investments, PMI, Services PMI, ADP, Labor, Consumer Credit, Broadcom Locations: U.S, Michigan
BEIJING, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Mixed factory activity data for China in November suggests more stimulus will be needed to shore up economic growth, analysts said on Friday, as two surveys came to contrasting conclusions on the sector's health. That was the fastest expansion in three months, but stands in contrast to the official PMI which fell to 49.4 on Thursday. "At face value, the average of the two is consistent with factory activity remaining largely unchanged last month," said Sheana Yue, China economist at Capital Economics. The official and Caixin surveys have different samples, with the Caixin PMI focusing on export-oriented enterprises and small- and medium-sized enterprises in the country's coastal region. Payroll cuts in the sector persisted for the third month in the Caixin survey and a ninth month in the official PMI.
Persons: Sheana Yue, Dan Wang, Xi Jinping, Liangping Gao, Joe Cash, Jacqueline Wong, Lincoln Organizations: P Global, PMI, Capital Economics, HSBC, Hang Seng Bank, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Hang Seng Bank China, Shanghai
Euro zone factory downturn eased a touch in November -PMI
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Ina Fassbender/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The broad-based downturn in euro zone manufacturing activity eased slightly last month but the sector remained deeply rooted in contractionary territory, prompting factories to trim staffing levels for a sixth straight month. HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 44.2 in November from October's 43.1, above a preliminary estimate of 43.8. An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Tuesday and seen as a good gauge of economic health, climbed to 44.6 from 43.1. "November has not been the prettiest, and this does not refer only to the weather but also to the situation in the manufacturing sector of the euro zone," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. The employment index dropped to a low not seen since August 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic was cementing its grip on the world.
Persons: Ina Fassbender, Cyrus de la Rubia, Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Toby Chopra Organizations: ThyssenKrupp AG, REUTERS, P, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Thomson Locations: German, Duisburg, October's, Hamburg
An employee works on a production line manufacturing steel structures at a factory in Huzhou, Zhejiang province, China May 17, 2020. The data shows that factories are producing less and hiring fewer people," Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China, said of China's PMI readings, which have different samples. Export-reliant Japan, South Korea and Taiwan bore the brunt of sluggish global demand with their manufacturing activity remaining stagnant in November, surveys showed. Japan's final au Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in November from 48.7 in October, shrinking at the fastest pace in nine months. Manufacturing activity also shrank in Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia, but expanded in Indonesia and the Philippines, the surveys showed.
Persons: Dan Wang, Toru Nishihama, Leika Kihara, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Korea Soft, P Global, Hang Seng Bank, Dai, Research, Jibun Bank, Research Institute, Thomson Locations: Huzhou, Zhejiang province, China, Japan, S, TOKYO, Europe, United States, Hang Seng Bank China, South Korea, Taiwan, Asia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines
US manufacturing stays depressed in November-ISM
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Dec 1(Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing remained subdued in November, according to a survey on Friday that also showed factory employment declining. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 last month. According to the ISM, a PMI reading below 48.7 over a period of time generally indicates a contraction of the overall economy. This measure has not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing payrolls in the government's closely watched employment report. Manufacturing payrolls are expected to have rebounded in November as about 33,000 striking United Auto Workers union members returned to work.
Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, payrolls, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Reuters, United Auto Workers, Thomson Locations: Normal , Illinois, U.S
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